【导读】源乐晟举办2026年度策略会，曾晓洁、杨建海最新发声 近日，老牌私募源乐晟举办2026年度策略会，源乐晟资产创始人曾晓洁与源乐晟合伙人杨建海分享了对 2026年市场的展望及行业观察。 曾晓洁与杨建海均认为，目前无需担忧"AI泡沫"，2026年或成为AI行业标志性的一年。当前消费板块较 难出现大贝塔行情，但新消费领域结构性机会持续存在。化工行业当前估值处于低位，产品价格具备反 弹基础，化工板块具备较强的性价比。 整体而言，2026年有望走出"慢牛"行情，但"慢牛"不代表没有波动。在风险方面，地缘政治风险、美联 储降息滞后等因素仍需警惕。 消费行业仍有结构性机会 化工板块具有较强的性价比 "在新消费领域，每年都会有结构性的机会。"杨建海表示，如餐饮中的一些细分赛道，在新兴业态下的 翻台率大幅突破过往。新消费领域不乏这类结构性机会，但这类机会的天花板相较以往更低，相关标的 市值达到一定程度后，其发展的持续性会引发担忧。 他认为，白酒行业那种长期持有"躺平"的逻辑已不再适用于新消费投资，而是需要每年在不同SKU中筛 选出当期锐度最强的方向，同时紧密跟踪标的变化、动态评估。 在杨建海看来，当前消费板块较难出现大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant growth driven by technology in certain sectors, while also noting the substantial losses due to cyclical downturns in others [1] Performance Growth Highlights - **Zhongwei Company (688012)**: Expected net profit between 208 million to 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.74% to 34.93%, driven by increased recognition of plasma etching equipment and a surge in market demand [5] - **Lianchuang Optoelectronics (600363)**: Expected net profit between 43.5 million to 53.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.36% to 120.57%, attributed to significant growth in laser business and improved profitability in traditional sectors [6] - **Ruixin Microelectronics (603893)**: Expected net profit between 102.3 million to 110.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.97% to 85.42%, driven by rapid growth in the AIoT market and recognition of new AI technology [7] - **Sangfor Health (688336)**: Expected net profit around 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 311.35%, due to a significant collaboration with Pfizer and advancements in clinical research [8] - **Pulite (002324)**: Expected net profit growth of 155.76% to 194.73%, driven by the demand for high polymer materials in the automotive lightweight trend [9] - **Tonghua Dongbao (600867)**: Expected net profit around 124.21 million yuan, turning from loss to profit, driven by market share gains in insulin products [10] - **Suotong Development (603612)**: Expected net profit between 73 million to 85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.98% to 212.03%, due to rising prices and demand in the prebaked anode industry [11] Major Performance Declines - **China Shipbuilding Technology (600072)**: Expected net loss between -260 million to -340 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of over 24 times, due to cyclical downturns in shipbuilding and high material costs [12] - **Silver Nonferrous Metals (601212)**: Expected net loss between -45 million to -67.5 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to legal disputes affecting financial performance [13] - **China Metallurgical Group (601618)**: Expected net profit between 130 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 76.28% to 80.73%, impacted by the downturn in the construction industry [14] - **Jindi Group (600383)**: Expected net loss between -1.11 billion to -1.35 billion yuan, with increased losses due to declining sales and inventory impairments [15] - **Jianfa Co. (600153)**: Expected net loss between -1 billion to -520 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to increased impairments in real estate [16] Industry Trend Analysis - **Technology and Innovation-Driven Sectors**: Companies in semiconductor equipment, laser military applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals are experiencing rapid growth due to high demand in AIoT, national defense, and biomedicine [23] - **Traditional Cyclical Industries**: Sectors like coal and engineering machinery are facing significant adjustments due to demand shortages and price declines, leading to widespread performance pressures [24] - **Pharmaceutical Industry Disparities**: Innovative drugs are seeing explosive growth through external licensing, while traditional formulations and raw materials are significantly impacted by procurement policies [24] - **External Environment Uncertainties**: Factors such as international trade tensions and regulatory changes are significantly affecting corporate performance, necessitating enhanced risk management [24] - **Asset Quality Risks**: Many companies are reporting substantial asset impairment provisions, indicating potential inefficiencies in previous investments [24]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, particularly in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, with significant capital inflow into the ETF focused on innovative drugs, indicating strong investor confidence in this segment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market showed a positive trend on January 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating upwards, closing with a gain [1]. - The ETF for innovative drugs, Huatai-PineBridge (589120), saw a 0.71% increase in the afternoon session, attracting over 40 million yuan in capital over the past five days [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The majority of the index component stocks for the innovative drug ETF experienced gains, with notable performances from companies such as Sanofi (10.93% increase) and Junshi Biosciences (nearly 8% increase) [2][3]. - The top ten component stocks of the ETF include companies like BeiGene and I-Mab, with varying weightings and performance metrics [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a recovery in performance, with over 50 companies expected to report profits for 2025, driven by improved industry conditions and favorable policies [5]. - As of January 26, more than 90 A-share innovative and biopharmaceutical companies have disclosed their 2025 earnings forecasts, with 53 companies expected to be profitable [5]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - Significant collaborations, such as the partnership between Sanofi and Pfizer, are contributing to substantial revenue growth, with Sanofi projecting a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 311.35% increase year-on-year [5]. - The innovative drug sector is entering a phase of capital influx, research iteration, and value realization, indicating a positive cycle for the industry [8]. Group 5: Global Competitiveness - The Chinese innovative drug sector is becoming increasingly competitive on a global scale, with a record-breaking outbound transaction volume exceeding 135 billion USD in 2025 [7]. - China is expected to play a leading role in the next cycle of global innovation in pharmaceuticals, with a focus on areas such as PD-1 dual antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing an upward trend, with a focus on the AI technology sector as a key area for investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) rose over 1%, indicating positive market sentiment towards AI technology [1] - Southbound capital is significantly flowing into the information technology sector, making it one of the main industries for net inflows in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The Hong Kong Technology ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which includes core assets in sectors such as internet, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a cumulative return of 224.25% since the base date at the end of 2014, compared to 83.87% for the Hang Seng Technology Index, indicating a significant excess return of over 140% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI applications are expected to accelerate their implementation, leading to a comprehensive price increase in the semiconductor industry [1] - Southbound capital is showing accelerated inflow, with the information technology sector being one of the main beneficiaries [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which covers core assets in "Internet + Semiconductors + Innovative Pharmaceuticals + New Energy Vehicles" [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1] - From the base date at the end of 2014 to the end of 2025, the cumulative return of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is 224.25%, significantly exceeding the 83.87% return of the Hang Seng Technology Index by over 140% [1] - The overall market outlook for Hong Kong stocks is expected to be a steady upward trend, with a recommendation to adopt a barbell strategy focusing on dynamic sectors like AI technology [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is cautious, with the Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF (588130) experiencing a decline of approximately 1% despite a strong performance from some constituent stocks like Sanofi, which saw its share price increase by over 10% due to significant earnings forecasts [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Sanofi has forecasted a revenue of around 4.2 billion yuan and a net profit of approximately 2.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 251.76% and 311.35% respectively, primarily driven by the confirmation of a 2.89 billion yuan upfront payment from the Pfizer 707 project [1] - The performance of constituent stocks within the ETF is notably divergent, with Sanofi leading the gains in the sector [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Huafu Securities believes that a new cycle of global innovative drugs has begun, with China poised to fully participate and potentially lead this trend [1] - Guosen Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on new technological directions, particularly in areas such as dual antibodies, small nucleic acids, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interfaces [1] Group 3: Market Concerns - Recent reports of Nipah virus infections in West Bengal, India, with five confirmed cases and around 100 close contacts under home quarantine, have raised concerns in the capital markets regarding overseas epidemic dynamics [1]

中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强1月19日下午主持召开专家、企业家和教科文卫体等领域代表座 谈会，听取对《政府工作报告》和《"十五五"规划纲要（草案）》两个征求意见稿的意见建议。2025 年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）1401879亿元，首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，按不变价格计算，比上年增 长5.0%。2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，超大规模市场优势持续显现。 近期海外焦点落在美国对格陵兰权益争夺的升级上，虽然TACO再现，但从去年开始的一系列事件，已 在一定程度上传导到全球货币体系和信用体系上，受益的品种已经演绎多时，而今年最大的黑天鹅也可 能来源于此。 经济数据层面，近期美国商务部和劳工统计局发布多个宏观经济数据。美国2025年第三季度核心PCE指 数年化终值环比升2.9%，预期升2.9%，初值升2.9%；PCE物价指数年化终值环比升2.8%，预期升 3.5%，初值升2.8%；就业方面，美国上周初请失业金人数为20万人，预期21万人，前值自19.8万人修正 至19.9万人。宏观方面，美国2025年第三季度实际GDP年化季率终值升4.4%，预期升4.3%，初值升 4.3%。美国经济软着陆预期仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - By 2025, China's innovative pharmaceuticals are expected to demonstrate significant global competitiveness, with record overseas transactions and many companies turning profitable [1][2]. Domestic Review - The global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs is highlighted, with a record-breaking overseas transaction total exceeding $135 billion in 2025, and upfront payments reaching $7 billion. The average deal size has increased from $600 million to $900 million [2]. - A comprehensive support system from policy, including review and approval processes to medical insurance payments, is being established, leading to a rapid increase in market share for innovative drugs, particularly in oncology and immunology, which now exceeds 32% [2]. - Companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics have already turned profitable, with others like CanSino Biologics and Zai Lab expected to follow suit in the next three years, indicating a positive cycle of capital influx, R&D iteration, and value realization [2]. Overseas Review - The S&P Biotechnology Index has risen over 50% from its bottom in the second half of 2025, driven by interest rate cuts that have shifted funds from tech stocks to biotech [3]. - Major pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) are actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to supplement their pipelines, particularly in oncology and immunology, as they face a "patent cliff" with key drugs like Keytruda and Opdivo losing patent protection by 2027-2028 [3]. Assessment - Chinese companies are becoming significant partners for the top 20 MNCs, with Chinese transaction amounts accounting for 40% of the global innovative drug market. China is transitioning from a "fast-follower" to a "smart-innovator" in fields like PD-1 bispecific antibodies, ADCs, and small nucleic acids, leading in pipeline numbers and clinical progress [4]. - The speed and cost advantages of Chinese innovative drug companies are notable, with patient recruitment occurring at 2-5 times the speed of international counterparts and costs being half that of Western companies [4]. Key Tracks and Investment Opportunities - Bispecific antibodies are expected to surpass $120 billion in global sales, with Chinese companies leading the development of second-generation IO products [5]. - ADCs are seeing significant contributions from China, with over half of the global pipeline, and are expected to achieve proof of concept (POC) validation by 2026 [5]. - Combination therapies in oncology are showing synergistic effects, with key clinical data expected in 2026 [5]. - The market for iRAS inhibitors is projected to exceed $8 billion in the U.S., with critical breakthroughs anticipated in 2026 [5]. - Small nucleic acids are expanding into broader applications, with key products expected to commercialize and deliver critical data in 2026 [5]. - Protein degradation technologies are advancing rapidly, with numerous autoimmune disease targets expected to yield data in 2026 [5]. - The metabolic and cardiovascular fields are also poised for breakthroughs, with new targets addressing issues like muscle loss associated with GLP-1 therapies [5]. Main Lines and Recommended Focus - Recommended companies in the bispecific antibody space include CanSino Biologics, Innovent Biologics, and others [7]. - ADC-focused companies include I-Mab, Kelun-Biotech, and others [7]. - Small nucleic acid companies to watch include Ribobio, BIBO, and others [7]. - Strategic combinations to consider include CanSino Biologics, BeiGene, and others [8]. - Flexible combinations include BIBO, Eifang Biologics, and others [8]. - Stable combinations include Hengrui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and others [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that innovative drugs are expected to show significant excess returns in 2025, driven by continuous BD overseas expansion, excellent clinical data, and policy support [1] - The CXO sector is anticipated to experience substantial growth due to the recovery in demand and improved investment environment in the global pharmaceutical industry [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on new technologies, particularly bispecific antibodies, small nucleic acid drugs, AI healthcare, and brain-computer interface innovations [3] Group 2 - Domestic supply and demand are relatively stable, with national health expenditure showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% from January to November 2025, marking a positive turnaround after two years of decline [2] - The medical insurance fund's income and expenditure growth rates continue to decline, with total income of 2.63 trillion yuan (+2.9%) and expenditure of 2.11 trillion yuan (+0.5%) from January to November [2] - The report suggests that the commercialization of new drug forms is entering a critical phase, with significant clinical data supporting the application of B-cell depletion therapies in autoimmune diseases [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on innovative overseas expansion and new technology directions, with suggested stocks such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and others [4] - The report highlights the potential for explosive growth in the global market for brain-computer interfaces, supported by policy incentives and technological breakthroughs [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Sichuan Shuangma is actively involved in the biopharmaceutical sector, focusing on the incubation of innovative drugs through direct investment and incubator platforms [2] - The company has concentrated its efforts on several disease areas, including oncology, autoimmune diseases, metabolic disorders, and neurological diseases, and is developing a number of early-stage innovative drug enterprises with internationally competitive product data [2] - Sichuan Shuangma employs a systematic and platform-based incubation model to promote the transformation of research results into marketable products [2]