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安粮期货大豆、淀粉报告
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 06:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].
从山尖到舌尖 “贷”来重庆南川方竹笋美味传奇
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-05-13 01:57
春为竹海,秋作竹笋。重庆南川是"中国方竹之乡",其金佛山方竹笋久负盛名,至今已有1700多年种植 历史,年产量达3万余吨,畅销国内外市场。近年来,中国人民银行巴南分行聚焦南川区特色产业,点 线面多维发力,因地制宜推动创新信贷产品、产业链做强做优、农文旅商融合发展。 "一产一品"创新信贷产品 点上破解融资难题 每年的八、九月份是集中垫林时期,这期间也是笋农集中用款的高峰期,融资需求旺盛。但同时,笋农 们也面临着抵押担保弱、线下贷款流程时间长、季节性资金周转急的问题,一定程度上制约了规模化发 展。中国人民银行巴南分行指导南川区银行机构挨家挨户走访了解笋农们贷款需求和经营中的困难,在 充分调查笋农们经营规模、资金流水等信息后,"一产一品"创新信贷产品,破解笋农融资难题。 "时间不等人呐,笋子一夜萌发,两三天就从笋包长成竹子。去年我资金紧张,一直担心贷款流程太长 影响竹笋收购,没想到银行还有针对我们笋农的专属产品。"当地竹笋收购"大王"曾德说道。据悉,重 庆三峡银行南川支行为笋农量身定制了"竹笋商户贷"纯信用线上信贷产品。该产品根据行业周期特点采 取循环授信、随借随还、纯信用模式,实现从以前线下最快1周时间放款到现在 ...
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250513
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 01:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US tariff reduction exceeded expectations, improving global risk appetite. The capital market's risk preference was boosted, and the market pricing mainline might shift from tariff policies to fundamental factors [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions led to a decline in the demand for safe - haven assets, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Gold is in a phased adjustment, and the adjustment time is expected to be long [3][4]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. Copper prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term, supported by fundamentals but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar index [6][7]. - The progress of trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and the aluminum price rebounded. The continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory indicates that consumption still has resilience [8]. - The Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved significant progress, and the alumina price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover due to the improvement of both macro and fundamental aspects [9][10]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction agreement alleviated concerns about the US economic recession. Zinc prices first rose and then fell, and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term under the stimulation of macro - level benefits [11]. - The lead price was boosted by macro - level benefits but faced pressure at the integer level. There is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. - The reduction of Sino - US tariffs exceeded expectations, and the concern about the decline in tin demand eased. Tin prices were driven by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. - The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted risk preference. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the supply - demand imbalance [15][16]. - The trend of lithium carbonate prices is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend [17][18]. - The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded market expectations, and the Philippine nickel ore export ban might be implemented in June. Nickel prices are expected to rise [19][20]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade results were positive, the oil price might return to a downward trend due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and the mediocre demand growth [22][23]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak [24][25]. - The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly due to the improved market sentiment, although the supply is generally loose [26]. - The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper fell back after hitting 9600 US dollars. The spot market transaction was weak, and the LME inventory decreased to 19.1 million tons [6]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. The fundamentals still provide strong support, but the rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term [7]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,910 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. LME aluminum rose 2.15%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline significantly, and the aluminum price tested the pressure above the 20,000 - yuan mark again [8]. 3.1.3 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose 0.67%. The supply decreased due to factory maintenance and production reduction, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover [9][10]. 3.1.4 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of zinc first rose and then fell. The import of zinc ingots supplemented the market supply, and the downstream procurement was weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. 3.1.5 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and gave back the gains at night. It is in the consumption off - season, the downstream procurement is insufficient, and there is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. 3.1.6 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated sharply during the day and opened high and oscillated narrowly at night. The supply - demand is weak, and the tin price is driven by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated widely. The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded expectations, and the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban in June. The nickel price may rise [19][20]. 3.1.8 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.36%. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions reduced the demand for safe - haven assets, and the rebound of the US dollar index also pressured the prices [3]. 3.2 Energy 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The oil price has rebounded to near the previous high. Due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and mediocre demand growth, it may return to a downward trend [22][23]. 3.3 Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rose. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak, steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24][25]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rose. The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment improved. Although the supply is generally loose, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell. The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. 3.4.2 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply - demand is imbalanced, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly. The trend is unclear due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [17][18].
深化党建联建 纾解共富难题(党旗在基层一线高高飘扬)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-12 22:21
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of a collaborative model among villages in Chun'an County, Zhejiang Province, focusing on agricultural development and economic cooperation through the establishment of the "Daxiajiang" brand and a joint party committee [1][2][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The Daxiajiang model promotes centralized planting and unified marketing, allowing farmers to sell their products more efficiently, as demonstrated by the success of sweet potato sales from neighboring villages [1][2]. - The Daxiajiang Company has developed a digital platform called "Jiangma Ganjiji," facilitating online sales of agricultural products, which has helped achieve over 20 million yuan in sales by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: Organizational Structure - The Daxiajiang Joint Party Committee, led by county leaders, coordinates resources and establishes a cross-departmental meeting mechanism to enhance efficiency in agricultural initiatives [2][3]. - The company operates on a model where profits are shared with the community, ensuring that the local economy benefits from agricultural sales while maintaining a sustainable business approach [3]. Group 3: Community Impact - The initiative has led to the establishment of a cooperative model among 25 administrative villages, allowing for shared economic benefits and continuous dividends for the community [3]. - The focus on utilizing local resources, such as red educational resources and wild medicinal herbs, aims to diversify income sources and enhance the overall economic resilience of the villages involved [3].
沈阳政企“期”聚力 下好风险防控“先手棋”
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-12 18:29
为进一步发挥期货市场服务实体经济功能,引导国有企业、上市公司合理利用期货市场管理风险,5月8 日,郑商所联合辽宁证监局、沈阳市委金融办、沈阳市国资委共同举办了沈阳市国有企业与上市公司风 险管理培训班。 上述相关负责人还表示,国有企业与上市公司是区域经济的"顶梁柱",在风险管理体系建设中应主动担 当、率先垂范。一是树牢"风险中性"理念,摒弃套保"盈亏考核"惯性思维,建立与战略目标相匹配的衍 生品管理制度;二是加强跨部门协作,财务、风控、业务团队需形成合力,杜绝"单打独斗"式套保;三 是强化合规底线意识,严守套期保值会计处理要求,杜绝投机交易和信息披露违规。 沈阳工业基础雄厚、企业数量众多,产业体系与郑商所PTA、PX、尿素、花生、白糖等期货品种密切 相关,并相继发布了《关于促进大连区域性金融中心高质量发展的若干政策措施》等政策文件,提 出"鼓励国有企业深化内部经营方式改革,合理运用期货等风险管理工具对冲风险""促进大宗商品产业 链协同发展"。 郑商所相关负责人表示,郑商所高度重视发挥期货力量,服务地区经济高质量发展。一是将辽宁设置为 PTA、PX、瓶片、白糖、尿素、花生等期货交割区域,便利企业套期保值。二是与恒 ...
农业周报:粮价继续上涨,畜禽等待拐点
Tai Ping Yang· 2025-05-12 13:30
2025 年 05 月 12 日 行业周报 看好/维持 农林牧渔 农林牧渔 农业周报 20250503-20250510:粮价继续上涨,畜禽等待拐点 ◼ 走势比较 ◼ 子行业评级 | 种植业 | 看好 | | --- | --- | | 畜牧业 | 看好 | | 林业 | 中性 | | 渔业 | 中性 | | 农 产 品 加 工 | 看好 | | Ⅱ | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 二、核心观点 行业评级及策略:粮价近期持续上涨,种植产业链景气有望触底反 转。畜禽价格低迷,产能有望高位回落。关税反制事件凸显国内农 产品供应重要性,产业发展政策环境有望持续优化,继续看好板块 投资机会。 | 中宠股份 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 买入 | | 苏垦农发 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<农业周报 20250427-20250502:子 行业 1 季报分化明显,养殖相关板块 业绩增长良好>>--2025-05-07 <<年报&一季报点评:粮价低迷致业 绩承压,自营农地规模扩大>>-- 2025-04-30 <<年报&一季报点评:自主品牌高速 增长,OEM 产能布局优势突出>>-- 2025 ...
玉米淀粉日报-20250512
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 12:01
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 玉米淀粉日报 期货从业证号: F03107370 投资咨询证号: 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/5/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2273 | -9 | -0.40% | 18,777 | 36.27% | 61,554 | -4.82% | | C2505 | | 2325 | -12 | -0.52% | 4,561 | 513.04% | 9,160 | 0.22% | | C2509 | | 2375 | -10 | -0.42% | 150,772 | 54.48% | 422,170 | 3.02% | | CS2601 | | 2710 | -6 | -0.22% | 836 | 9.42% | 4,4 ...
双塔食品(002481) - 002481双塔食品投资者关系管理信息20250512
2025-05-12 08:52
烟台双塔食品股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025 -001 证券代码:002481 证券简称:双塔食品 | 4.未来有哪些新品推出,针对的市场销售计划是怎样的? | | --- | | 答:您好,公司将紧紧围绕主营业务产品,不断延伸产业链。 | | 5.股权激励的条件是什么? | | 答:您好,目前公司尚未制定股权激励方案。 | | 6.公司是否为央国企,公司是否有市值管理计划? | | 答:您好,公司的实际控制人是招远市金岭镇人民政府。 | | 7.25年一季度营收大增利润大减爆减的原因是什么? | | 答:您好,主要是受豌豆淀粉行情及收入结构变动影响。 | | 8.按规定,每个月前三个交易日必须披露回购情况,为什么五月没 | | 有披露? | | 答:您好,回购尚未开始实施。 | | 9.为什么公司回购股价却在不断地下跌,是在故意压低股价吗? | | 答:您好,股价主要受市场行情波动影响。 | | 10.公司未来发展规划有哪些? | | 答:1、突出主业。公司将以"打造豌豆全产业链龙头"为目标,聚 | | 焦豌豆蛋白、粉丝、膳食纤维等主营业务,不断延伸产业链条,扩 | | 充产品线,优化产品 ...
综合晨报-20250512
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:20
gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月12日 近期氧化铝检修压产产能不断上升,产蛋阶段性降低,行业库存转降,不过一旦利润修复产能依然 会大规模复产,且山东和河北新产能将逐渐有成品产出。成本端几内亚铝土矿成交价已从年初110美 元降至75美元,对应氧化铝平均成本降至2900元附近。本周氧化铝现货成交略有上升,短期盘面反 弹高度将受到过剩前景和成本坍塌限制,期货升水时考虑逢高偏空参与。 上周国际油价低位反弹,布伦特07合约上涨3.95%。继美英达成贸易协议后,周末中美高层绕贸会 谈在瑞士取得实质性进展及重要关识,双方同意建立中美经贸挫伤机制开展进一步磋商,贸易战风 脸的阶段性缓和带动油价向上修复,同时二季度以来全球石油累阵速度放缓。同时值得注意的是. 周日美伊核会谈同样进展积极,俄乌和谈亦在推进之中,全球地缘风险的绘和降低原油制裁及断供 风险,后续上涨空间取决于贸易战实质性缓和的进展。 【贵金属】 周五贵金属震荡,波动有限。上周美联储会议鲍威尔重申需等待更多经济数据指导决策,本周重点 关注美国CP1、PPI和零售数据。近期贸易谈判和地练纷争交织,印巴达成停火,关英达成 ...
长江期货粕类油脂周报-20250512
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 06:11
目 录 01 豆粕:供应逐步改善,价格震荡下行 01 豆粕:供应逐步改善,价格震荡下行 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-05-12 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员:叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人:姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 02 油脂:供应压力仍存,期价反弹受限 豆粕 :供应逐步改善,价格震荡下行 ◆ 期现端:截止5月9日,华东现货报价3110元/吨,周度下跌190元/吨,M2509合约收盘至2899元/吨,周度下跌21元/吨,基差报价09+200元/吨,周度 下跌150元/吨。周度豆粕价格偏弱运行,随着大豆到港增加,油厂开机率上扬以及备货结束,大豆豆粕进入累库周期,现货价格快速回落。M2509合约受 到港压制以及供应压力后移影响,价格走势偏弱。 ◆ 供应端:5月美豆UDSA供需报告即将公布,市场预估25/26年度美豆种植面积维持在8350万英亩;单产方面,市场维持52.5蒲/英亩。但受中美贸易摩擦 影响,预计本次报告下调美豆出口上调国内压榨。当前美豆主产区天气良好,利于大豆播种,截至5月4日美豆已完成 30%的播种率,单周推进了 ...