Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 0.63% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index, ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Energy metals (up 4.49%) and industrial metals (up 1.05%) showed positive performance, while metal new materials (-4.08%), precious metals (-0.95%), and minor metals (-8.51%) experienced declines [2][14] Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $3,789.80 per ounce, up 2.96% over two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $46.37 per ounce, up 8.63% [3][21] - LME copper settled at $10,125.50 per ton, increasing by 1.21% over two weeks; LME aluminum fell to $2,643 per ton, down 2.38% [3][20] - Cobalt prices surged, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 310,000 CNY per ton, up 13.55% over two weeks, and cobalt sulfate averaging 65,000 CNY per ton, up 20.82% [3][53] Major Events - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has suspended operations due to a fatal landslide, significantly impacting global copper supply [4][59] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency awarded a contract to U.S. Antimony Corporation worth up to $245 million for supplying antimony metal [59][60] Investment Recommendations - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the report suggests focusing on investment opportunities that combine "resources + growth" themes, while monitoring geopolitical and export policy changes in major resource countries [5]

Group 1: Industry Perspective on Institutional Research - The overall number of institutional research engagements in the A-share market decreased last week, likely due to the upcoming long holiday, with a total of 483 engagements, lower than 637 engagements during the same period in 2024 [12][19] - The top five industries by the number of institutional engagements were mechanical equipment, electronics, automobiles, pharmaceutical biology, and electric power equipment [12][19] - In August, the total number of institutional engagements in the A-share market showed a slight recovery but remained below the levels of 2024, with 1,854 engagements compared to 2,050 in 2024 [20][21] Group 2: Individual Stock Perspective on Institutional Research - Ice Wheel Environment, Hu Dian Co., and Hua Xia Eye Hospital received significant market attention, with Ice Wheel Environment being engaged four times last week, benefiting from AI infrastructure trends [25][29] - In the past month, companies such as Huichuan Technology, Ice Wheel Environment, and Lian De Equipment were frequently engaged, indicating strong market interest [30][31] - Ming Tai Aluminum's recent developments in high-end product lines and new energy materials have attracted attention, with two engagements last week [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jincheng Mining Management Co., Ltd. has shown significant performance, with a year-to-date increase of 87.31% and a recent trading volume indicating active market interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 29, Jincheng's stock price rose by 2.05% to 67.15 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 41.887 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 8.73% increase over the last five trading days, a 2.75% decrease over the last 20 days, and a 44.84% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jincheng reported a revenue of 6.316 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.111 billion CNY, up 81.29% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulatively, the company has distributed 768 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 477 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of August 31, the number of shareholders decreased to 16,400, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 1.32% to 38,065 shares [2]. - The third-largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, held 13.8932 million shares as of June 30, 2025, a decrease of 16.2626 million shares from the previous period [3]. Group 4: Business Overview - Jincheng's main business activities include mining engineering construction, mining operation management, and mining design and technology research, with the primary revenue sources being sales of cathode copper, copper concentrate, and phosphate rock [1]. - The company operates within the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in the industrial metals and copper sectors, and is associated with various concept sectors including phosphate chemicals and gold stocks [1].

Company Overview - Jiyuan Wanfang Aluminum Co., Ltd. is located in the Ma Village area of Jiyuan City, Henan Province, and was established on November 27, 1996. The company was listed on September 26, 1996. Its main business involves aluminum smelting and processing, as well as the sale of aluminum products and metal materials [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Jiyuan Wanfang achieved operating revenue of 3.309 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 536 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.06% [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 1.759 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 405 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - As of September 29, Jiyuan Wanfang's stock price increased by 2.12%, reaching 8.18 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 9.752 billion yuan. The stock has risen by 30.05% year-to-date, with a 2.00% increase over the last five trading days, a 10.99% decrease over the last 20 days, and a 5.55% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The number of shareholders increased to 70,600 as of September 19, a rise of 5.27%, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 5.01% to 16,869 shares [2]. Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co., Ltd. ranked as the sixth largest shareholder with 23.8445 million shares, a decrease of 19,300 shares from the previous period. The Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100) entered as the ninth largest shareholder with 8.8403 million shares [3]. Market Activity - Jiyuan Wanfang has appeared on the stock market's "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on March 18 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a consolidation phase since late August, with upward movement constrained by profit-taking after rapid gains, indicating a need for new catalysts for future performance [1] - The global monetary order is undergoing rapid restructuring, leading to a decline in the safety of dollar assets and a revaluation of RMB assets, suggesting that the foundation for market growth remains intact [1] Industry Recommendations - High consensus industries such as AI computing power and robotics are still worth focusing on in the medium term, as long as there is no significant downturn in industry prosperity [1] - Sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, batteries, and non-ferrous metals have already seen substantial gains, but they still hold good allocation value due to supply clearing and demand improvement [1] - Sub-industries within non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit directly from macro changes due to the global monetary order restructuring [1] - Industries like engineering machinery, power grid equipment, and aquaculture have not experienced significant gains but offer good cost-performance ratios when considering capacity cycle positions and overseas expansion prospects [1] Capacity Cycle Perspective - Identifying turning point industries and elastic sectors from a capacity cycle perspective remains meaningful, with a focus on sectors that can achieve capacity clearing and demand improvement [4] - The current market shows that most industries are in the deepening phase of capacity reduction, with a notable increase in industries entering the clearing phase [5] - The report highlights key industries for 2024, including communication equipment, commercial vehicles, and lithium batteries, identified through capacity cycle analysis [4][5] High-End Manufacturing - High-end manufacturing has shown significant improvement in capacity cycle positions, with key sectors like automotive parts, communication equipment, consumer electronics, components, batteries, and medical services recommended for allocation [8][9] - The battery sector is expected to lead in capacity clearing and expansion due to high demand growth and significant reductions in capital expenditure across the industry [8] Traditional Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing - Traditional manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors have seen prolonged periods of reduced capital expenditure, with higher standards for recognizing capacity clearing due to weaker demand [10] - Notable sectors for potential investment include engineering machinery, aquaculture, and feed, which have undergone significant capital expenditure reductions and are showing signs of demand stabilization [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights ongoing supply disruptions leading to continuous increases in metal prices, particularly in copper and precious metals [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals index, which has outperformed the broader market indices significantly [4][10]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.06%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 3.52%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.46 percentage points [3][4]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 56.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 40.74 percentage points [8]. Price Changes - Industrial and precious metals saw varied price changes, with copper increasing by 8.57% and gold prices rising by 1.89% [3][10]. - The report notes significant price increases in energy materials, particularly in cobalt, which rose by 14.23% [3][10]. Key Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report indicates a reduction in domestic social inventory by 0.9 million tons, with a current total of 140,000 tons. Supply disruptions from Freeport's Grasberg mine are expected to reduce global copper supply by approximately 2.2% [3][35]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes an increase in downstream processing enterprise operating rates, with a current operating rate of 63.00%. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased by 3.30 million tons [3][47]. - **Steel**: The report highlights an increase in steel production and a decrease in steel inventory, with a focus on monitoring supply adjustments and export demand [3][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, recommending stocks such as Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [3][10]. - For precious metals, the report recommends companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, citing their potential for valuation recovery [3][10]. Company Valuations - The report provides detailed valuations for key companies in the metals sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various firms [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [3]. Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are trading around interest rate cuts, with silver showing potential for a short squeeze due to low inventory levels and continued inflows into ETFs [1][33]. - Industrial metals like copper are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine and a reduction in global copper supply, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as the market awaits demand recovery [1][33]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing active trading ahead of the holiday, with expectations of strong supply growth in the fourth quarter [1][33]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to trade based on interest rate expectations, with silver's strong performance linked to low inventory levels and ETF inflows [1][33]. - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.9%, aligning with expectations and reducing concerns about interest rate cuts [1][33]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by production cuts at the Grasberg mine, with a projected reduction of over 500,000 tons in global copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months [1][33]. - Aluminum supply is increasing as production capacity is restored, but prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [1][33]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are stable, with active trading as companies prepare for the holiday season, and supply expectations remain strong for the fourth quarter [1][33]. - The report notes a slight increase in lithium carbonate production, with inventory levels decreasing [1][33]. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several companies to monitor, including 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, 万国黄金集团, 中金黄金, 紫金矿业, 山东黄金, 赤峰黄金, 银泰黄金, 招金矿业, 洛阳钼业, 明泰铝业, and others [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking it lower among all primary industries. Precious metals outperformed with a 5.55% increase, while industrial metals rose by 5.15% [1][15]. - Economic data from the U.S. exceeded expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations. Precious metals are expected to benefit from the rapid decline in real interest rates since August [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, with the non-ferrous metals sector increasing by 3.52%, outperforming the index by 3.31 percentage points [15]. - Among the sub-sectors, precious metals increased by 5.55%, industrial metals by 5.15%, while small metals and new materials declined [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine incident in Indonesia. As of September 26, LME copper was priced at $10,205 per ton, up 2.09% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥82,470 per ton, up 3.20% [2][34]. Supply is tightening due to significant maintenance in domestic smelting plants and the mine incident affecting production [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices recorded a slight decline, with LME aluminum at $2,649 per ton, down 1.01%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,745 per ton, down 0.24% [3][39]. Demand remains weak despite pre-holiday stocking, and overall theoretical demand has decreased [3]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell, with LME zinc at $2,887 per ton, down 0.41%, and SHFE zinc at ¥21,980 per ton, down 0.29% [42]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME inventory decreasing while SHFE inventory increased [42]. - **Tin**: Tin prices increased slightly, with LME tin at $34,415 per ton, up 0.57%, and SHFE tin at ¥274,070 per ton, up 1.97% [47]. Supply issues persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing maintenance in domestic production [47]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold at $3,789.80 per ounce, up 1.89%, and SHFE gold at ¥856.06 per gram, up 3.07% [4][51]. Positive U.S. economic data has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations, supporting gold prices [4][52]. The report emphasizes that the current macro narrative favors precious metals due to the expected continuation of declining real interest rates [4][52].

Core Viewpoint - As the third quarter earnings report disclosure period approaches at the end of October, the correlation between stock prices and earnings is gradually increasing [2] Industry Summary - The industries with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts since September include: - Technology: gaming, computer equipment, communication devices, components [5][6] - Advanced Manufacturing: motorcycles, aerospace and marine equipment, home appliance components, batteries [5][6] - Cyclical: precious metals, glass fiber, steel, industrial metals [5][6] - Consumer: beverages, dairy products, seasoning and fermentation products, education [5][6] - Financial: brokerage insurance, city commercial banks [5][6] Profit Revision Data - The following sectors have seen a high percentage of companies with upward revisions in 2025E net profit: - Technology: - Media: 59% of companies revised upwards with a 94% profit growth forecast - Computer: 43% of companies with a 33% profit growth forecast - Communication: 21% of companies with a 70% profit growth forecast - Electronics: 17% of companies with a 67% profit growth forecast - Advanced Manufacturing: - Automotive: 89% of companies with a 44% profit growth forecast - Defense: 83% of companies with a 33% profit growth forecast - Home Appliances: 63% of companies with a 22% profit growth forecast - Power Equipment: 46% of companies with a 56% profit growth forecast - Cyclical: - Precious Metals: 77% of companies with a 74% profit growth forecast - Glass Fiber: 76% of companies with a 129% profit growth forecast - Steel: 66% of companies with a 43% profit growth forecast - Consumer: - Beverages: 77% of companies with a 23% profit growth forecast - Education: 36% of companies with a 52% profit growth forecast - Financial: - Securities: 71% of companies with a 34% profit growth forecast [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent copper mine incident has reignited the rally in industrial metals stocks in the A-share market, following a previous surge in cobalt-related stocks due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 25, the industrial metals sector in the A-share market rose by 1.31%, with net inflows of nearly 1.6 billion yuan [1]. - The industrial metals sector has seen an overall increase of over 50% since the low point in April, with nearly 20 stocks doubling in market value [9][20]. - Major players in the copper sector, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, experienced stock price increases exceeding 5% [3][11]. Group 2: Key Events and Drivers - The Grasberg copper mine incident in Indonesia, which resulted in production halts and a projected 35% drop in output by 2026, has significantly impacted copper prices, pushing them to a new high of 82,710 yuan per ton [8]. - The recent policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo regarding cobalt exports, including an extension of the export suspension until October 2025, have raised concerns about future supply and contributed to price increases in the cobalt market [12][13]. Group 3: Company Insights - Zijin Mining's stock has surged by 80% this year, with copper sales contributing significantly to its revenue, accounting for 27.8% of sales and 38.5% of gross profit [7]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has increased by 145% since April, driven by rising prices of its main products, with a reported revenue of 94.77 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite a year-on-year decline [11][20]. - The copper production from Luoyang Molybdenum is expected to reach 650,000 tons in 2024, marking a 65% increase year-on-year [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the industrial metals sector will continue to benefit from macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic supply-side reforms [14][15]. - The overall sentiment in the industrial metals market remains positive, with expectations of sustained demand and price increases due to global economic recovery and strategic metal pricing dynamics [17][20].