Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong profitability resilience despite a decline in metal prices, with cobalt, nickel, and lithium margins reaching historical lows. The current price levels provide a foundation for potential increases, which could significantly boost the company's performance [7][9]. - The company has established a comprehensive business structure with five major sectors: new energy, new materials, Indonesian nickel, African resources, and recycling [13][16]. - The report highlights the cyclical nature of metal prices, indicating that cobalt prices are at a long-term historical low, with potential for substantial increases due to demand growth and supply constraints [33][51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 33.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 56.76 billion yuan [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2023 is 66.30 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline to 60.95 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 70.44 billion yuan in 2025. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 3.35 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.07 billion yuan in 2025 [6][8]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.19 for 2025, which is below the industry average, indicating potential undervaluation [8]. Investment Logic - The company has maintained stable revenue and profitability despite fluctuations in metal prices, with nickel and lithium segments showing growth while cobalt has declined. The overall business structure is resilient, with significant upside potential if metal prices recover [20][29]. - The report emphasizes that the current low prices of cobalt, nickel, and lithium create a favorable environment for future price increases, which could enhance the company's earnings significantly [7][9]. Cobalt Market Insights - Cobalt prices are currently at a long-term low, with expectations for a significant rebound driven by demand growth and supply constraints, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo [33][51]. - The report notes that the recent export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo could further tighten supply, enhancing the potential for price increases [36]. Nickel Market Insights - Nickel supply is dominated by Indonesia, which is expected to account for 60% of global production in 2024. The report indicates that while supply is increasing, rising costs and the closure of high-cost mines may stabilize prices [53][60]. Lithium Market Insights - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, with prices at historical lows. The report forecasts that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize around 80,000 yuan per ton in 2025, with potential for increases as demand recovers [67][72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious and industrial metals [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising gold prices, which have reached new highs, and suggests focusing on strategic minor metal investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics [5][23]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.43% from April 14 to April 25, 2025, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - Energy metals (4.34%), industrial metals (3.84%), and precious metals (1.74%) showed the highest gains, while minor metals and new metal materials declined by -1.66% and -1.78%, respectively [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of April 25, COMEX gold closed at $3,330.20 per ounce, up 2.31% over two weeks and 24.67% year-to-date [3][22]. - COMEX silver closed at $33.34 per ounce, increasing by 3.56% over two weeks and 11.19% year-to-date [3][22]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations are driving gold prices, with a potential for short-term corrections but long-term support factors remaining strong [23][26]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,364 per ton, up 2.00% over two weeks and 7.81% year-to-date [30]. - LME aluminum closed at $2,412 per ton, increasing by 5.56% over two weeks but down 4.89% year-to-date [30]. - The report highlights that copper prices are influenced by tariff policy changes and long-term demand from the renewable energy sector [30][34]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 146,000 CNY per ton, up 1.74% over two weeks and 2.28% year-to-date [37]. - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 237,500 CNY per ton, down 1.04% over two weeks but up 66.08% year-to-date [37]. - The report indicates that antimony prices are supported by supply constraints and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [38]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 171.62, down 5.28% over two weeks but up 4.79% year-to-date [50][51]. - The report notes that the market is experiencing downward pressure due to reduced demand from key industries amid a slowing global economy [51]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices for electrolytic cobalt averaged 240,500 CNY per ton, up 2.78% over two weeks and 41.06% year-to-date [57]. - Lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade) averaged 69,800 CNY per ton, down 2.51% over two weeks and down 7.06% year-to-date [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic minor metals due to changing supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, recommending companies involved in these sectors [5][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious and industrial metals [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, reaching new highs, and suggests focusing on strategic minor metal investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics [5][23]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review (April 14 - April 25, 2025) - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.43%, ranking 11th among 31 sectors, with energy metals (4.34%), industrial metals (3.84%), and precious metals (1.74%) leading the gains [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of April 25, COMEX gold closed at $3,330.20 per ounce, up 2.31% over two weeks and 24.67% year-to-date. COMEX silver closed at $33.34 per ounce, up 3.56% over two weeks and 11.19% year-to-date [3][22]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes are driving gold prices, with a recent peak above $3,400 per ounce [23][24]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,364 per ton, up 2.00% over two weeks and 7.81% year-to-date. LME aluminum closed at $2,412 per ton, up 5.56% over two weeks but down 4.89% year-to-date [30][33]. - The report attributes copper's recent price increase to easing tariff policies and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [30][34]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 146,000 CNY per ton, up 1.74% over two weeks and 2.28% year-to-date. LME tin was priced at $31,975 per ton, up 1.52% over two weeks and 12.35% year-to-date [37][41]. - Antimony prices are experiencing high volatility due to supply constraints and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [38][39]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 171.62, down 5.28% over two weeks but up 4.79% year-to-date. Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide fell by 5.14% over two weeks [50][51]. - The report indicates that recent export control policies are impacting market dynamics, with demand from new energy sectors remaining strong [51]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are stable, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 240,500 CNY per ton, up 2.78% over two weeks and 41.06% year-to-date. Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,375 CNY per ton, up 0.05% over two weeks [58][59]. - The report highlights cobalt's critical role in electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies [58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic minor metals due to changing supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, recommending companies involved in these sectors [5][51].

Group 1 - The A-share energy metal sector has strengthened, with Tianqi Lithium Industries rising by 4.39% [1] - Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, and Rongjie Co., Ltd. all experienced increases of over 2% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes a 34% additional tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and export controls on certain rare earth elements [5]. - The precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility due to U.S. tariff announcements, with gold prices rising by 2.5% in the domestic market [5]. - Industrial metals are facing downward price pressure, particularly copper, which has seen a price drop of 2.0% on the SHFE and 9.8% on the LME [5]. - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals, especially gold, due to declining real interest rates [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased, while ETF holdings have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 739 CNY per gram, a weekly change of 2.5% [10]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are predominantly declining, with SHFE copper down 2.0% and LME copper down 9.8% [27]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes significant price changes across various metals, with copper and aluminum both experiencing declines [28]. - The SHFE copper price is reported at 78,860 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.0% weekly decrease [29]. - Aluminum prices have also dropped, with SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 0.8% [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations provided [6]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended due to their potential for growth [6]. - In industrial metals, companies such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [6].

股本股东变化 西藏矿业发展股份有限公司2024年年度报告摘要显示，公司经本次董事会审议通过的利润分配预案为： 以521174140股为基数，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.5元（含税），送红股0股（含税），不以公 积金转增股本。2024年度实现净利润44,038,101.76元，提取法定盈余公积金4,403,810.18元，加上年初未 分配利润312,576,337.17元，减去2023年度派发现金红利52,117,414.00元，截至2024年12月31日，母公司 累计可供分配利润300,093,214.75元；合并报表2024年度归母净利润111,743,790.21元，累计可供分配利 润696,754,383.68元。公司2024年度利润分配预案为：以2024年12月31日公司总股本521,174,140股为基 数，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.5元（含税），共计分配派发现金红利26,058,707.00元（含税）。 如在预案披露之日至实施权益分派股权登记日期间公司总股本发生变动，按照"现金分红总额不变、相 应调整每股分配比例"原则实施分配，剩余未分配利润结转下一年度。公司不存在可能触及其他风险警 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to falling lithium prices and losses from fair value changes of its Pilbara holdings. The revenue for 2024 was 18.906 billion yuan, down 42.66% year-on-year, and the net profit was a loss of 2.074 billion yuan, down 141.93% year-on-year. Despite the downturn in the lithium industry, the company's lithium product production increased by 24.94% year-on-year to 130,300 tons LCE [1][6][8]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of 23.846 billion yuan in 2025, 30.290 billion yuan in 2026, and 37.871 billion yuan in 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.1%, 27.0%, and 25.0% respectively [17][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.906 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.66% year-on-year. The net profit was a loss of 2.074 billion yuan, down 141.93% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 5.161 billion yuan, an increase of 3423.52% year-on-year [1][6][9]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 303 million yuan [9]. Production and Sales Data - The company produced 130,300 tons of lithium products in 2024, an increase of 24.94% year-on-year, with sales of 129,700 tons, up 27.41% year-on-year. The inventory level was approximately 7,765 tons, up 7.25% year-on-year [1][8][12]. Lithium Resource Development - The company has made significant progress in lithium resource projects, including the Mt Marion project in Australia and the Cauchari salt lake project in Argentina, which is expected to reach a production of 25,400 tons LCE in 2024 [2][12][13]. - The total lithium salt production capacity has exceeded 200,000 tons LCE, with ongoing expansions in various projects [13][14]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 23.846 billion yuan in 2025, 30.290 billion yuan in 2026, and 37.871 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.957 billion yuan, 3.206 billion yuan, and 4.224 billion yuan respectively [17][18].

来看，美元信用弱化为主线，看好金价中枢上移。白银兼具金融和工业属性，近年来光伏用 银增长带动供需格局紧张，银价弹性相对更高，价格有望创历史新高。重点推荐：万国黄金 集团、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、湖南黄金，关注中国黄金国 际，白银标的推荐盛达资源、兴业银锡。 风险提示：需求不及预期、供给超预期释放、海外地缘政治风险。（民生证券 邱祖学, 张弋清 ） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风 险自担。 民生证券近日发布有色金属周报：工业金属高位震荡，金价再创历史新高。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（03/21-03/28）上证综指下跌0.4%，沪深300指数上涨0.01%，SW有色指数上涨 0.28%，贵金属COMEX黄金上涨2.97%，COMEX白银上涨3.85%。工业金属LME铝、铜、 锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动-2.84%、-0.70%、-2.60%、-0.22%、1.17%、4.35%；工业金属 库存LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变 动-3.69%、-5.20%、-8.42%、-0.45%、-0.19%、-18.88%。 工业金属：关税担忧刺激 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Gold prices continue to reach new highs, with the COMEX gold futures contract rising by 2.97% to $3118 per ounce as of March 28. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.2% to 931.94 tons. Concerns about re-inflation in the U.S. are growing, with the core PCE in February at 2.79% year-on-year. The manufacturing PMI for February is at 50.3, indicating continued economic activity. The expectation is for gold prices to remain strong in the medium to long term due to persistent re-inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit [4]. - Industrial Metals: The demand season is starting, and there is a focus on the rising prices of metals driven by supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, with significant increases noted in both futures and ETF holdings. The market is experiencing inflation concerns, which are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4][13]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of March 28, SHFE copper futures fell by 0.2% to 80,450 CNY/ton. Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11,900 tons to 334,500 tons. The demand is expected to recover as downstream operations resume. Supply disruptions are anticipated due to the suspension of operations at Glencore's Altonorte copper smelter, which has an annual capacity of 350,000 tons. The expectation is for copper prices to gradually rise due to tightening supply and increasing demand [6][8]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum futures fell by 0.6% to 20,580 CNY/ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory is at 802,000 tons, with demand recovering as downstream operations resume. The upcoming bidding for power grid projects is expected to increase orders, particularly for aluminum cables. The expectation is for aluminum prices to rise in the second quarter due to strong demand [6][8]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin futures rose by 2.22% to 282,290 CNY/ton. Domestic tin social inventory increased by 934 tons to 11,482 tons. The supply of tin is expected to tighten due to production issues at the Bisie mine. The demand is anticipated to recover as the semiconductor sector improves, leading to a potential increase in tin prices [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the copper, aluminum, and tin sectors. For copper, the recommendation is to pay attention to Zijin Mining due to recovering domestic demand and tightening supply. For aluminum, Tianshan Co. is recommended as prices are expected to rise. For tin, attention is drawn to Xiyang Co. due to ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand from AI applications [8][70].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][23]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to falling lithium prices and a mismatch in pricing mechanisms for lithium products [1][8][9]. - Despite the downturn, the company has shown a substantial increase in the production and sales volume of lithium compounds and derivatives, with production up 39.44% and sales up 81.46% year-on-year [1][11]. - The company is focusing on expanding production capacity and has strategic plans in place for resource development in Australia and China, aiming to strengthen its position in the lithium supply chain [15][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.75% year-on-year, and a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, down 208.32% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 5.554 billion yuan, a decline of 75.52% year-on-year [1][8]. - The financial forecast for 2025-2027 indicates expected revenues of 10.806 billion yuan, 13.340 billion yuan, and 16.097 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.385 billion yuan, 2.511 billion yuan, and 3.180 billion yuan [3][23]. Production and Capacity - The company produced 1.41 million tons of lithium concentrate in 2024, with chemical-grade lithium concentrate accounting for 1.353 million tons [11][19]. - The company operates five lithium chemical product production bases with a total capacity of 91,600 tons per year, and has plans for further expansion [19][21]. Investment and Strategic Position - The company holds a 22.16% stake in SQM, which is expected to provide significant investment returns as SQM expands its lithium production capacity [20][23]. - The company is strategically positioned with strong resource advantages and plans to enhance its midstream lithium processing capacity, which is expected to support long-term growth [3][15].