行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：政治局会议定调积极，看好饮料旺季催化 市场表现复盘 本周（4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别-1.36%/+0.38%。具体板块来 看，本周零食（+4.50%）、软饮料（+2.21%）、其他酒类（+0.06%）、调味发酵品（-0.33%）、肉 制品（-0.53%）、啤酒（-0.72%）、保健品（-1.28%）、白酒 III（-1.75%）。 周观点更新 白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liu Xiaoting is set to lead Youlei Stone Development Co., Ltd. and Youlei International Co., Ltd., focusing on finance and international trade, while injecting new vitality into the company through innovative ideas [1][4] Group 1: Company Background and Leadership - Youlei originated in Taiwan, founded by Liu Xiaoting's parents, initially in the stone industry and later expanding into international trade [1] - Liu Xiaoting emphasizes the importance of her mother's entrepreneurial spirit and principles, which include practicality and customer-centricity, as keys to business success [4][5] Group 2: Corporate Culture and Principles - Youlei's corporate culture is built on four core principles: integrity, innovation, service, and care, which guide the company's direction amid industry challenges [4] - The company aims to enhance production efficiency and adopt advanced technologies to meet the rising demand for personalized stone materials in interior design [4] Group 3: Awards and Recognition - Youlei received the "Quality Choice Prize" from the European Society for Quality Research in 2024, recognizing its commitment to product quality and sustainable development [7] - Youlei International was awarded the "Incentive Award" at the BIZZ Awards for its achievements in introducing new healthy snacks to the global market [8] Group 4: Product Innovation and Market Strategy - Liu Xiaoting is leading a diversification strategy for Youlei International's flagship product, Vegky dried mushrooms, focusing on health-conscious consumers [9] - The company is implementing digital transformation through e-commerce platforms and data analytics to optimize product positioning and market strategies [9] Group 5: Employee Development and Sustainability - Youlei has established an employee incentive program to encourage innovation and improve training standards to support continuous development [10] - The company is committed to sustainable development by investing in eco-friendly packaging, reducing carbon footprints, and using renewable energy in production [10]

线上渠道势能不减，线下分销持续发力。在线上，公司依托"D+N"全渠道协同体系，短视频电商定 位"新品类发动机"，主动打造爆品，并在货架电商有效承接，带动综合电商稳步增长。在线下，24年5 月公司召开全域生态大会，发布了新的区域分销模式，提出百万终端，百亿规模的"双百目标"。公司重 点聚焦分销业务，逐步推动日销品区域化深度分销的打造。 构建全品类产品矩阵，爱折扣完善社区折扣业态布局。在"高端性价比"总战略牵引下，公司加速零食产 品上新，为全渠道适配并经营全品类零食，24全年累计上线超1000款SKU。公司通过"一品一链"的供应 链管理模式，重新梳理价值链，做强一批大单品；通过"品销合一"的协同价值观，做强新组织。24年10 月公司公告收购爱折扣，完善硬折扣社区业态的全面布局。 公司发布25年一季报，实现营业收入37.23亿元，同比微增2.13%。归母净利润为2.39亿元，同比下降 22.46%；扣非归母净利润为1.62亿元，同比下降38.31%。 平安观点： 毛利率小幅下滑，净利率短期承压。25Q1公司毛利率同比小幅下滑0.66个百分点至26.74%；销售费用 率为18.67%，同比增长2.41个百分点，反映了 ...

Company Management Changes - Yang Hongchun has resumed the position of General Manager at Liangpinpuzi, with a term from April 26, 2025, to November 26, 2026 [1] - Cheng Hong's acting term as General Manager ended on April 26, 2025, after being elected Chairman in March [1][2] - Yang Yinfeng remains a director, having previously served as General Manager from 2017 to 2022 and briefly as Chairman and General Manager until March 2023 [5] Financial Performance - Liangpinpuzi reported a revenue of 7.159 billion in 2024, a decrease of 11.02% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 46 million [7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 1.732 billion, down 29.34% year-on-year, with a net loss of 36.14 million compared to a profit of 62.48 million in the same period last year [7] - The decline in profits is attributed to a pricing strategy that involved lowering prices while maintaining quality, which affected gross margins [7][10] Market Competition - Liangpinpuzi faces increasing competition from rapidly expanding snack chains such as "Zero Snacks" and "Good to Come," which have significantly increased their store counts and market presence [7][8] - The number of Liangpinpuzi's stores decreased from 3,293 in 2023 to 2,704 in 2024, marking the largest contraction in three years [8][9] Industry Trends - The domestic snack market is projected to grow, with the number of discount snack stores expected to reach 45,000 and a market size of 123.9 billion by 2025 [8] - Liangpinpuzi's sales channels have seen declines, except for group purchasing, which grew by 18.66% to 580 million [9] Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to enhance product quality, optimize product structure, and improve supply chain management in 2025 [11] - Liangpinpuzi has not yet adopted strategies similar to competitors like Three Squirrels, which have successfully navigated market challenges through adjustments in their business models and marketing strategies [10][11]

白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有增长，或加速行业库存去化节奏，助力行业逐步走出调整。 4 月 25 日中央政治局会议提到，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，同时，还提到将通过创设新工具精准引导资金流向科技创新、 扩大消费、稳定外贸等领域。当前（2025-04-26）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.44X，处于近 10 年 11.49%的合理偏低水位，在中央政治局会议积极定调背景下，建议关注后续具体刺激政 策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会 ...

曾经的网红零食品牌，又要赴港上市了。 近日三只松鼠向港交所递交招股书。这家成立于2012年，踩着电商红利在淘宝崛起的品牌，曾以年销百亿的业绩跻身行业头部，2019年登陆深交 所，成为"网红零食第一股"。 那是三只松鼠最风光的时候，其创始人兼CEO章燎原曾回忆，得知成功过会消息后，他转身给妻子发微信，自豪地说"搞的第一个上市公司"。当 时，章燎原以95亿元身家坐上了安徽首富的位置。 但就在上市后，三只松鼠业绩就迅速变脸，上市当年，三只松鼠的净利润就同比下降了21.43%，2020年到2023年，营收则四连降。因为过度依赖 线上渠道、营销成本高企的问题，业绩陷入低谷，股东也频频减持。 颓势在2024年才略有所好转。凭借着抖音流量和"降价"两个杀手锏，三只松鼠在2024年以106亿元营收、归母净利润4.08亿元，重回百亿俱乐 部。 来源丨凤凰网财经《IPO观察哨》 就在业绩回暖但还没坐稳时，三只松鼠就官宣了赴港上市。又拿下了一个"第一"——是国内首个谋求"A+H"双上市的零食品牌。 4月29日，三只松鼠市值106亿元，股价26.47元/股，较2020年最高点的股价已跌去了七成。解析招股书，三只松鼠还是三只松鼠，依赖 ...

推出高性价比零食水饮货盘，看好线下分销业务发展。公司目前在分销渠道推出了高性价比零食水饮货 盘，且不断丰富产品矩阵。根据渠道反馈，线下分销3 月增速达215%，其中肉食增长506%，方便素食 增长2745%，瓜子炒货增长653%，涌现较多爆款产品，如火鸡面、肉食大礼包、八宝粥等，随着公司 逐步加大分销招商铺货力度，线下分销有望贡献积极增量。 投资建议：我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为138.20/180.28/208.06 亿元，分别同比增长 30.11%/30.44%/15.41%，预计公司2025-2027 年实现归母净利润4.70/6.91/8.42 亿元，分别同比增长 15.32%/47.00%/21.86%，对应25-27 年PE 为23.7/16.1/13.2X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、渠道拓展不及预期、成本上升风险等 毛利率有所下降。25Q1 实现毛利率26.74%，同比-0.66pct，预计主要系春节错期影响基数较高。 阶段性费用投入增加，费用率有所上升。25Q1 期间费用率为20.61%，同比+2.81pct，其中销售费用率 为18.67%，同比+2. ...

今日早参 2025 年 4 月 29 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：配置型外资转向流入 1 今日早参 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 上周，资金面延续平淡：1）交易型资金中，融资余额仍稳定在 1.8 万亿附 近，行业 ETF 净流出收窄，方向上，短线资金对于业绩预期改善、成长方向 关注度有所回升；2）配置型外资转向净流入，被动配置型外资是净流入主 力，主动配置型外资净流出收窄，仓位视角，4 月初，亚洲配置型外资持有 A 股仓位创 2024 年以来新高，而全球配置型基金仓位相对稳定；3）逆势资 金流入态势放缓，宽基 ETF 转向净流出，产业资本转向净减持，但回购资金 积极入市，回购预案规模仍在 2016 年以来相对高位。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-04-28 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB ...

前白宫国家经济委员会主任警告，美国关税政策的全面影响将在5月底显现，直接冲击消费品供应和价格。 据央视新闻报道， 当地时间4月27日，曾在特朗普第一个总统任期内担任白宫国家经济委员会主任的加里·科恩（Gary Cohn）表示， 美国目前关税政策的影响 将在下个月底开始在全国范围内显现， 这一预测是基于货物运输和分发所需的时间。 科恩说，收入水平及经济实力较低的人群将把100%的薪水都用于购买商品，而富人会存储更高比例的收入。 这意味着关税将对低收入美国人产生更大影响。 消费狂潮退烧，提前购买难掩后续疲软 科恩观察到，在关税威胁下，消费者出现了明显的"预加载"或"前端购买"行为。为了规避未来可能更高的价格，民众抢购汽车，推动汽车销售创下历史新高，同 时大量购入消费品、洗衣机和科技产品。这使得经济的"硬数据"在短期内看起来"相当稳固"——然而，这只是表面现象。 科恩强调， 反映未来预期的"软数据"，如消费者信心指数和各类民调，正显示出越来越多的疲软迹象。 比如作为 作为未来支出先行指标的 消费者信心，已经 亮起了红灯。 各大消费品公司的一季度财报时也印证了这一点：尽管一季度尚可，但对二季度的展望普遍悲观。从快餐连 ...

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Mei, a leading brand in the plum snack industry, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previously failing to list in A-shares, raising concerns about declining profit margins and low R&D investment [2][5]. Company Overview - Liuliu Guoyuan, the parent company of Liuliu Mei, is a major player in the Chinese fruit snack market, with its main products categorized into three types: dried plums, western plums, and other plum-related products [3]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Liuliu Guoyuan has ranked first in the green plum and western plum snack sectors by retail sales from 2021 to 2024. However, the market ceiling is evident, with the overall snack market in China projected to grow from 13,440 billion RMB in 2024 to 17,558 billion RMB by 2029 [5]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenues of 1.174 billion RMB, 1.322 billion RMB, and 1.616 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of approximately 68 million RMB, 99 million RMB, and 148 million RMB during the same period [5][6]. Profit Margin Trends - Despite revenue growth, the gross profit margin has been declining, with figures of 38.6%, 40.1%, and 36.0% for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. The margins for core products like dried plums and western plums have also decreased [6][7]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - The company has invested heavily in marketing, with sales and distribution expenses exceeding 900 million RMB over the reporting period, accounting for 24.1%, 23.4%, and 19.2% of total revenue [8][10]. In contrast, R&D spending has been low, totaling less than 77 million RMB over three years, with a R&D expense ratio of only 1.2% in 2024 [11]. Ownership and Shareholder Actions - The company is primarily controlled by its founders, who hold 87.77% of the shares. Notably, major shareholder Beijing Sequoia chose to cash out before the IPO, selling its shares for 261 million RMB [11]. Food Safety Concerns - Food safety is critical for the company, which has faced multiple complaints and regulatory actions related to product quality. There have been nearly 300 complaints, with issues such as contamination and spoilage frequently reported [12][13][16].