Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are generally optimistic about the market outlook for 2026, focusing more on corporate profitability as a key driver for stock price movements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Corporate Profitability - Corporate profitability is expected to become the core consideration for investment decisions, with a shift from liquidity-driven to profitability-driven market dynamics anticipated [2][3]. - The overall profitability growth in the A-share market is expected to improve, particularly in the TMT and manufacturing sectors, while cyclical and consumer sectors are projected to gradually recover [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about structural opportunities in the market, particularly in growth sectors such as PCB, optical communication, and AI applications, as well as in consumer and cyclical sectors [4][5]. - Specific investment opportunities in the consumer sector include Z-generation new consumption, affordable consumption, and areas like education, gaming, and e-commerce [4]. Group 3: AI Investment Landscape - The AI sector presents both opportunities and challenges, with a consensus on the high demand for upstream computing power and the potential for explosive growth in related companies [6][7]. - Investment focus areas in AI include consumer entertainment, internal business optimization, and advancements in humanoid robots and smart driving technologies [7].

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

► 内部方面，重要会议后投资者较为关注经济基本面。 近期投资者对于经济基本面的关注度有所回升。11月经济数据相比10月继续边际走 缓，固定资产投资的同比降幅较大，社会零售消费增速受"以旧换新"政策高基数影响而回落，金融数据中M1同比增速在10月和11月连续下 行。近期金融及经济数据反映基本面回稳仍需稳增长政策支持。 影响市场的短期因素偏多，前期调整可能已接近尾声，逢低布局"跨年"行情。 我们近期发布的《 如何构建"稳市"监测体系？ 》，结合A股历 史经验教训及当前新形势，构建市场"顶部"判别方法论，判断一轮上涨行情的回调是否为阶段性顶部，关键在于市场上涨的底层逻辑是否被破 坏，若底层逻辑未变则更大概率为阶段调整。就本轮行情而言，去年"924"以来的宏观政策转向改变投资者悲观预期，为市场企稳回升的基 础，居民存款资金入市、低利率及"资产荒"以及监管层对资本市场发展的支持提供了良好的环境。我们在《 牛市成因之辩 》和2026年展望《 乘势笃行 》指出，上涨根本驱动力在于国际秩序和产业创新的叙事反转，两者推动中国资产实现重估，目前这两大底层逻辑并未动摇。A股市 场整体估值无论在全球横向对比，还是与大类资产对比仍然具 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are generally optimistic about the market outlook for 2026, focusing more on corporate profitability as a key driver for stock price movements [2][3][4]. Group 1: Corporate Profitability - Corporate profitability is expected to become the core consideration for investment decisions, with a shift from liquidity-driven to profitability-driven market dynamics anticipated [3][4]. - The overall profitability growth in the non-financial sector is expected to improve, with high growth projected in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and manufacturing sectors, while cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to gradually recover [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about structural opportunities in the market, particularly in growth sectors such as PCB, optical communication, domestic computing, robotics, and autonomous driving, as well as innovative pharmaceutical companies [6][7]. - Consumer and cyclical sectors are also highlighted, focusing on price-elastic "anti-involution" products, monopolistic cyclical products with dividend protection, and non-bank financial sectors [6][7]. Group 3: AI Investment Landscape - The AI sector presents both opportunities and challenges, with strong demand leading to explosive growth in related companies, although some segments may face supply constraints [8][9]. - Investment in AI applications is expected to expand, particularly in consumer entertainment, operational optimization for businesses, and humanoid robots and smart driving technologies [8][9].

Group 1 - Multiple institutions express a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026, citing structural opportunities driven by corporate profit improvement, capital allocation shifts, and policy optimization [1][2] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes China's critical role in the emerging markets landscape, with its weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index reaching 30%, indicating a strong commitment to investing in the Chinese market [1] - Invesco believes that the A-share market will benefit from long-term structural advantages of the Chinese economy, focusing on the recovery momentum of corporate profits and the shift in asset allocation from housing and cash to equity assets [1][2] Group 2 - The optimistic outlook for the A-share market is supported by ongoing policy benefits, steady corporate profit improvements, and favorable global capital allocation demands [2] - The new "National Nine Articles" policy encourages listed companies to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, leading to a significant increase in dividend and buyback scales among Chinese companies [2] - The technology sector, particularly in AI, is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with Chinese companies showing potential to innovate and compete globally [2][3] Group 3 - The biopharmaceutical sector in China is becoming a cost-effective key player in the global pharmaceutical supply chain, offering significant savings on R&D costs for international companies [3] - Invesco maintains a focus on the technology sector, believing that its long-term trends will remain unaffected by short-term fluctuations, while also paying attention to resource and cyclical opportunities [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Major tech companies are accelerating the upgrade of multimodal AI models, which is expected to enhance content production efficiency and diversity, while also increasing demand for inference computing power [4][30] - The gaming sector is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to new game launches and ongoing operations of evergreen games, with recommendations to increase investments in this area [4][29] Industry Data Overview - "Delta Operation" ranked first in the iOS game free list in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS game revenue list [10][14] - The film "Zootopia 2" achieved the highest box office for the week [10][25] Industry News Summary - Major companies are continuously investing in large models, with the domestic gaming market reaching new highs in both scale and user numbers [28] - Google’s Gemini 3 Flash has broken the "performance-cost-speed" Pareto frontier, while domestic giants are increasing resource allocation for continuous iteration of large models [28][29] - The launch of the new Alibaba model supports role-playing functions and is the most comprehensive video generation model globally [29] - Tencent's mixed world model 1.5 allows for the creation of interactive worlds from text or images, enhancing the gaming experience [29] - The Doubao large model has seen a significant increase in daily token processing volume, indicating robust growth in AI applications [31][32]

报告导读： 热点主题交易热度整体回落，内需与科技主题轮动，外部风险扰动逐步落地， 国内扩大内需政策预期持续强化。看好： AI 应用 / 商业航天 / 海南自贸 / 内需消费。 主题温度计：热点主题交易热度整体回落，内需与科技主题轮动。 上周热点主题日均成交额平均 6.75 亿元，日均换手率 3.07% ，整体均显著回落。内需消 费与科技主题呈轮动特征，乳业 / 零售 / 食品加工 / 航空等内需主题大涨，有色金属部分品种获得资金净流入，商业航天主题波动加大，算力 / 光通信 / 覆 铜板等 AI 相关主题转跌，海南板块有所走弱。近期美联储降息、日本央行加息等外部扰动因素逐步落地，市场风险偏好有望企稳回升。国内扩大内需政策预 期持续强化，内需成为接力科技主题轮动的重要方向。跨年行情资金从再平衡转向再配置，看好 AI 应用 / 商业航天 / 海南自贸 / 内需消费。 主题一： AI 应用。 国产算力架构能力跃升，应用端产品迭代加速，算力与应用螺旋式发展不断强化 AI 投资叙事。摩尔线程发布新一代全功能 GPU 架构"花 港"，算力密度较上一代提升 50% ，能效提升 10 倍；火山引擎原动力大会发布豆包大模型 1 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of patiently positioning in high-growth sectors despite year-end market volatility, with a focus on sectors like AI, semiconductors, new energy, and non-ferrous metals [3][12] - The bond market shows signs of recovery in bullish sentiment, with expectations for interest rate cuts and new public fund fee regulations, although the report advises maintaining a neutral duration stance due to potential resistance in further declines of the 10-year government bond yield [3][12] - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown resilience in certain high-growth sectors, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming spring market in January and February [3][12] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates a decline in consumer growth to 1.3% in November, with fixed asset investment growth falling to -2.6%, reflecting increased pressure on the domestic economy [9] - The report notes that the bond market has priced in negative factors, leading to improved market sentiment, while the A-share market has experienced fluctuations due to global market concerns, particularly following the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [10][12] - The report tracks key indicators in the A-share and bond markets, noting a slight decline in A-share valuation and trading activity, with average daily trading volume dropping to 17,605 billion yuan [20]

Group 1 - The market status indicates an increased correlation between the US and Chinese markets, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile, reflecting a new normal of "overnight alignment and intraday reversal" [2][10][13] - The US core CPI has decreased to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years, while the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, primarily due to increased labor participation and temporary unemployment, indicating a stable economic environment without significant inflationary pressures [2][10][13] - China's economic fundamentals show a combination of corporate profit bottoming out and a decline in domestic demand, which opens a window for further policy support [2][10][13] Group 2 - The AI industry chain is experiencing a divergence, with broader AI-related assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) performing better than core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [3][24][25] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [3][24][25] - Commodity prices for copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium carbonate have been rising since late October, driven by demand from AI investments, with near-term contracts for copper and tin outperforming longer-term contracts [3][24][25] Group 3 - The concept of "expanding domestic demand" is emphasized as a strategic move, with a focus on increasing consumer demand supported by income growth and effective investment [4][31][32] - The government plans to enhance the second distribution of income by increasing minimum pension standards and implementing childcare subsidies, while future efforts may focus on optimizing the first distribution through wage reforms [4][31][32] - Historical examples from Japan and the US illustrate that income growth leads to increased service and new-type consumption, suggesting that China's current income growth initiatives could similarly boost consumer spending [4][31][32] Group 4 - The current market environment, characterized by limited macro elasticity and increased industry differentiation, suggests a shift in investment strategy towards tangible demand and domestic policy benefits as the new focus for 2026 [5][42][43] - Recommendations include investing in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil) that benefit from AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors poised for recovery in consumer spending (airlines, hotels, duty-free, food and beverages) [5][42][43] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a rebound in long-term asset returns, alongside opportunities in China's equipment export chain and manufacturing sectors [5][42][43]

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...