Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the power grid and industrial control sectors is expected to continue in the first half of 2025, with potential opportunities for performance and valuation recovery in the second half of the year [1] Power Grid Sector - Domestic power grid investment showed strong growth in the first five months of 2025, with a total investment of 204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [5] - The approval pace for ultra-high voltage projects is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with significant projects already approved [7] - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment remains strong, with a projected annual growth rate of around 10% for power grid investment from 2024 to 2026 [10] - The first half of 2025 saw a robust demand for primary network investments, with a notable increase in bidding amounts for key equipment [10] Industrial Control Sector - The industrial control market has shown signs of recovery, with the OEM market experiencing a 3.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first positive growth in three years [24] - The demand for new technologies, particularly in automation and robotics, is expected to enhance profitability and valuation flexibility for industrial control companies [3] - The overall capital expenditure momentum remains slightly subdued, but a narrow fluctuation in the new cycle is anticipated [18] Investment Themes - Focus on new productive forces, including AIDC and humanoid robots, which are expected to bring significant valuation elasticity [3] - The revival of nuclear energy is highlighted, with a focus on nuclear power equipment and small modular reactors (SMR) as key investment areas [48] - The overseas market for power grid investment is projected to maintain high growth, driven by energy transition and grid upgrades, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase expected in 2024 [4] Nuclear Energy Sector - The global nuclear power industry is experiencing a strategic revival, with significant investments and approvals in various countries, including China and the U.S. [49] - The demand for nuclear energy is increasing due to the need for stable, low-carbon baseload power, with a focus on SMR and controlled nuclear fusion technologies [62] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see a re-evaluation of its investment value as countries prioritize energy security and decarbonization [61]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to September. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% during the week [1][15][17] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][15][17] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading pattern [1][15][17] Fixed Income - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 12 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 34.961 billion yuan, an increase of 3.531 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 56.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Industry Analysis Robotics and Automation - The report highlights that the human-like robot sector is entering a year of mass production, with supply chain adjustments and component innovations being crucial. Tesla's Musk has set a production target of 5,000 to 10,000 units for the year [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of component innovations such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials in enhancing robot capabilities [7][8] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with low valuations and low holdings providing a balanced risk-reward profile. The estimated valuation for the insurance sector is between 0.61-0.96 times PEV and 0.98-2.21 times PB, indicating historical lows [9] REITs - The report discusses the potential of REITs in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the importance of policy support and structural optimization to enhance investment value. The diversification of asset types is expected to accelerate, with new assets like data centers and wind power emerging [10] Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a projected demand growth of 0-3% for the year. The report notes that the export market remains strong, contributing to high industry sentiment [11] Unmanned Forklift Industry - The report suggests that the unmanned forklift sector is poised for rapid growth driven by AI technology and smart logistics. It recommends investing in leading companies in the smart forklift space [12] Consumer Services - The analysis of consumer spending in China indicates that the overall consumption rate is low, with both service and goods consumption needing improvement. The service consumption rate in China was 21.1% in 2019, compared to an average of 28.4% across 43 countries [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, emphasizing the importance of focusing on companies with long-term competitive advantages and the implementation of robotics in various scenarios [2][7]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle due to increased monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on domestic demand stimulation [7]. - The report highlights the shift of humanoid robots from product development to customer acquisition and the critical phase of commercial implementation, particularly in sectors like automotive manufacturing and intelligent logistics [7]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies in the industrial control sector, robotics, machine tools, cutting tools, testing, engineering machinery, and logistics equipment [7]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Flantech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth from 2.12 to 3.01, 0.60 to 0.94, and 1.83 to 2.78 respectively from 2025E to 2027E [3][8]. - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation metrics for various companies, indicating strong growth potential in the mechanical sector [3]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report discusses the precision reducer market, which is expected to reach a scale of 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic companies increasing their market share [21][22]. - The report identifies three major downstream application scenarios for precision reducers: industrial robots, high-end machine tools, and humanoid robots, highlighting the growth potential in these areas [23]. - Companies like 博众精工 (Bozhong Precision) are noted for their multi-track business layout and significant revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 11.94% from 2018 to 2024 [27][29]. Key Data Tracking - The report includes macroeconomic data, such as the manufacturing PMI index and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's performance [34][35]. - It also tracks the monthly sales of excavators and forklifts, providing insights into the demand trends within the mechanical sector [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The successful approval of the stock issuance and listing of Suzhou Huichuan United Power Co., Ltd. marks a significant event in the "A拆A" (A-share split listing) landscape, indicating a shift in regulatory signals that "strict" does not equate to "halt" [1][2] Company Overview - Huichuan Technology, a leading player in the industrial control sector, has a robust technical foundation, brand advantage, and financial strength, with a reported revenue of 37.041 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.77% [4][10] - United Power, established in 2016, focuses on electric drive systems and power systems for electric vehicles, showcasing strong business independence and a distinct operational focus compared to Huichuan Technology [3][10] Financial Performance - United Power's revenue projections from 2022 to 2024 are 5.027 billion yuan, 9.365 billion yuan, and 16.178 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 79.39%, significantly exceeding industry averages [3][4] - The company has achieved a net profit turnaround, moving from a loss of 179 million yuan in 2022 to a profit of 936 million yuan in 2024 [3] Regulatory Environment - The new "National Nine Articles" policy has introduced stricter standards for split listings, emphasizing compliance and quality, which United Power successfully met through its independent operational structure and technological innovation [2][7] - The approval process for United Power involved rigorous scrutiny from regulatory bodies, focusing on financial independence, asset integrity, and strategic necessity [7][8] Industry Context - The electric vehicle sector is a strategic emerging industry in China, with United Power positioned at the core of the supply chain, contributing to the integration and upgrading of the automotive industry [5][6][11] - The successful split listing of United Power is expected to enhance the visibility and valuation of both the parent company and the subsidiary, fostering a clearer focus on their respective core businesses [4][10] Innovation and Growth - United Power has developed 26 core product technologies and holds 98 invention patents, demonstrating its commitment to technological leadership in the electric vehicle sector [3][5] - The company serves over 40 automotive manufacturers and 170 vehicle models, indicating its significant role in the industry and potential for future growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - The successful listing of Suzhou Huichuan United Power Co., Ltd. marks a significant development in the "A-share split" process, indicating that strict regulations do not equate to a complete halt in the market, but rather a new normal for regulatory practices [2][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Huichuan Technology's subsidiary, United Power, has received approval for its initial public offering on the ChiNext board, becoming the second case of "A-share split" after the new "National Nine Articles" policy [1]. Regulatory Environment - The approval of United Power reflects a shift in regulatory signals, suggesting that high-quality and compliant split listings are still viable under the new regulatory framework [2][4]. - The new "National Nine Articles" policy aims to curb blind splits and arbitrage, establishing a clear boundary for future split listings [4]. Company Qualifications - United Power meets stringent regulatory standards in terms of business independence, technological innovation, and sustainable growth, which are critical for passing the regulatory scrutiny [5]. - The company has established a robust independent operational framework since its inception in 2016, focusing on electric drive systems and power systems for electric vehicles [5]. - United Power has developed 26 core product technologies and holds 98 invention patents, showcasing its technological leadership [5]. Parent Company Stability - Huichuan Technology, as a leading player in the industrial control sector, has demonstrated strong financial health, with a reported revenue of 37.04 billion yuan in 2024, up 21.77% year-on-year [6]. - The split is expected to enhance both companies' focus on their core businesses and improve overall market visibility and valuation [6]. Industry Synergy - United Power plays a pivotal role in the electric vehicle supply chain, linking upstream components and serving downstream automotive manufacturers, thus contributing to the integration and upgrading of China's automotive industry [7]. - The company aligns with national strategies for developing the electric vehicle sector, which is a key area for sustainable economic growth [7]. Market Implications - The case of United Power serves as a benchmark for future split listings, emphasizing the need for financial independence and strategic necessity for subsidiaries seeking to go public [9][10]. - The regulatory focus on maintaining a balance between strict oversight and promoting high-quality development is evident in the scrutiny applied to United Power's listing process [10][11]. Conclusion - The successful split of United Power not only provides a new platform for its growth but also exemplifies the role of capital markets in supporting technology-driven companies, potentially leading to more compliant and high-quality "A-share split" cases in the future [14][15].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The mechanical industry has seen significant growth in the first half of 2025, with a nearly 14% increase, ranking sixth among all A-share sectors [2] - The industry is influenced by themes such as robotics, reducers, and hard technology, with a focus on undervalued assets [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Trends**: The mechanical sector's investment opportunities are concentrated in hard technology (e.g., giant wheel intelligence, controllable nuclear fusion) and undervalued assets [1][5] - **Domestic Demand**: The recovery in domestic demand for engineering machinery is moderate, primarily driven by equipment upgrades. Excavator sales slowed in Q2, but large excavators continue to perform well [1][6][7] - **External Demand**: The external demand for engineering machinery is strong, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with potential growth in the European and American markets [1][9] - **Industrial Control Sector**: The industrial control sector reversed its downward trend in Q1 2025, showing a 2.35% year-on-year growth, with rapid growth in HVAC and industrial robots [1][10] Important but Overlooked Content - **Overseas Expansion**: China's manufacturing direct investment abroad has grown from $19.108 billion in 2018 to $27.342 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.43%. ASEAN's share in this investment is increasing [4] - **Market Dynamics**: The mechanical industry is closely tied to the performance of the manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, which are currently showing signs of weakness [3] - **Future Outlook**: The second half of 2025 is expected to see a focus on hard technology and high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market due to ample supply and global capital inflow [5][52] Recommendations - **Key Companies**: Recommended companies in the mechanical sector include Haitan International, Sany International, and Jerry Holdings, among others, with a focus on hard technology firms like Aobi Zhongguang and Sikang Technology [53] - **Investment Opportunities**: Investors are advised to pay attention to the controllable nuclear fusion sector, which is expected to see significant investment opportunities in the latter half of 2025 [50][51]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, aligning with market expectations [2] - The statement indicated a slight reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, although it remains at a high level [2] Group 2: Energy Transition and High-Temperature Superconductors - Shanghai Superconductor, a leading company in high-temperature superconducting materials, reported projected revenues of CNY 0.83 billion and CNY 2.40 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 133% and 187% [2] - The company's gross profit margins are expected to improve to 55.77% and 60.52% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit to CNY 0.73 billion in 2024, indicating a turnaround [2] - The report anticipates that the demand for controllable nuclear fusion will drive down costs and expand application scenarios for high-temperature superconductors [2] Group 3: E-commerce and Retail Growth - The 2025 "618" e-commerce promotion is expected to see stable double-digit growth, driven by a slightly extended activity cycle, government subsidies, and increased user engagement through instant retail scenarios [4] - Major e-commerce platforms are expected to continue competing on improving merchant operations and enhancing user stickiness through multi-channel marketing [4] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba (BABA US/9988 HK) and JD.com (JD US/9618 HK) due to their strong brand support and potential for cross-selling in instant retail [4] Group 4: Utilities and Environmental Sector Performance - The report anticipates a mixed performance among major thermal power companies in Q2 2025, with coal prices expected to decline month-on-month [5] - Hydropower generation is projected to decline year-on-year, while nuclear power operations remain stable [5] - Key focus areas for green power operators include electricity pricing mechanisms and cash flow management for environmental companies [5] Group 5: New Energy and Technology Trends - The report highlights optimism in the profitability of battery and structural components in the electric vehicle sector, alongside advancements in solid-state battery technology [8] - Wind power demand is expected to remain robust, with profitability recovery driven by offshore wind projects [8] - Recommended stocks include CATL, EVE Energy, and others involved in emerging technology sectors such as humanoid robots and AIDC [8] Group 6: U.S. Treasury Market Demand - The report analyzes the structural characteristics of U.S. Treasury investors, noting that international investors, broad-based mutual funds, and the Federal Reserve account for over 60% of the market [7] - Different investor types exhibit distinct motivations for purchasing Treasuries, with expectations for continued demand from commercial banks and pension funds in the second half of 2025 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the ongoing trend of A-share listed companies in China pursuing spin-off listings, with Suzhou Huichuan United Power System Co., Ltd. being the latest example, which is a spin-off from Shenzhen Huichuan Technology Co., Ltd. focusing on the new energy vehicle sector [1] - As of June 15, 2023, a total of 14 A-share listed companies have updated their spin-off listing progress this year, with 4 already completed [1] - The spin-off listings are characterized by industry concentration in high-growth sectors such as high-end equipment, new energy, and smart logistics, indicating a strategic move towards specialization and risk reduction for parent companies [1] Group 2 - The spin-off allows subsidiaries to develop independently and establish clearer business boundaries, as seen with Zijin Mining Group's plan to spin off its subsidiary for independent gold operations [2] - Regulatory requirements for spin-off listings include a minimum of three years of domestic listing, continuous profitability over the last three accounting years, and compliance with industry competition and related transaction regulations [2] - Market conditions can significantly impact the progress of spin-off listings, exemplified by China Southern Airlines' decision to withdraw its subsidiary's listing application due to changing market environments [2] Group 3 - This year, 4 A-share spin-offs have been completed, with destinations including the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Beijing Stock Exchange, and Shanghai Stock Exchange [3] - Some A-share companies are also planning to spin off subsidiaries for listings in Hong Kong, such as Midea Group and Weichai Power [3]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou United Power System Co., Ltd. (referred to as "United Power") has met the conditions for listing and is positioned as a leading enterprise in the new energy vehicle power system sector, having been spun off from Huichuan Technology [2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - United Power is the only entity within the Huichuan Technology system that operates the electric drive and power systems for new energy vehicles, showcasing a complete and independent R&D, production, and sales system [2][3] - Huichuan Technology, the parent company, has a market capitalization of 170 billion yuan and reported a revenue of 37.04 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.77% [3] Group 2: Business Performance - United Power's revenue has shown significant growth from 2.90 billion yuan in 2021 to 16.18 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 79.39% over the past three years [4] - In 2024, United Power held a market share of approximately 10.7% in the electric control products segment, ranking first among third-party suppliers [4] Group 3: Industry Position and Innovation - United Power is positioned at the core of the new energy vehicle industry chain, focusing on technological innovation in core components, and has developed 26 core product technologies and 98 invention patents [6] - The company has actively participated in national key research projects, enhancing its technological barriers and industry recognition [6] Group 4: Spin-off Benefits - The spin-off of United Power aims to enhance its transparency and showcase its value, which is expected to positively impact its valuation and stock price [7] - This separation allows Huichuan Technology to focus on its core business, improving operational efficiency and reducing risks associated with diversification [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the electric power equipment and new energy sectors are expected to see improved profitability, particularly in the electric vehicle battery segment, as lithium battery supply issues are anticipated to reach a turning point. The decline in lithium carbonate prices is expected to lower battery costs and stimulate downstream demand [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of the electric power equipment sector, predicting a significant investment year for the grid, driven by increased electricity demand from emerging industries like AI and the rapid development of renewable energy, which is creating pressure on the grid [2][3] - In the energy storage sector, the report forecasts sustained high growth in 2025, with opportunities arising from the development of large-scale storage, commercial storage, and household storage [3][4] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to benefit from high demand in Europe and a robust domestic market, with new technologies like TOPCON and HJT accelerating the market's growth [3][4] - The report also discusses the industrial control and humanoid robot sectors, noting the establishment of the Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry Alliance, which is expected to facilitate the industrialization of humanoid robots [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates that in April 2025, new energy vehicle sales reached 1.226 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, while the installed capacity of power batteries was 54.1 GWh, up 54.6% year-on-year [11][12] Electric Power Equipment and Energy Storage - The report suggests that 2025 will be a significant year for grid investment, with a focus on companies like Suyuan Electric, Haixing Power, and Jindan Technology [2][3] - In energy storage, the report highlights investment opportunities in large-scale storage, commercial storage, and household storage, recommending companies such as Nanfang Technology and Sungrow Power [3][4] Photovoltaic Industry - The report notes that the photovoltaic sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly in Europe, and highlights the potential of new technologies to drive growth [3][4] Industrial Control and Humanoid Robots - The establishment of the Guangdong Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Industry Alliance is expected to enhance collaboration among robot companies and accelerate the industrialization of humanoid robots [5][6]