海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.63%。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月23日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1250亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1250亿元， 中标量1250亿元。Wind数据显示，当日867亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放383亿元。当周实现净投放2295亿元。 Wind数据显示，1月26日至30日当周，央行公开市场将有11810亿元逆回购到期。此外，1月26日还将有2000亿元MLF到 期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 缴税影响尚未完全消除，银行间市场资金面仍显紧平衡，DR001加权平均利率降约2bp至1.39%附近。匿名点击（X-repo） 系统上，隔夜报价在1.42%附近，供给仍不稳；非银机构质押存单及信用债借入隔夜报价则在1.52%-1.55%一线。 6. 国债期货收盘 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.59%附近，较上日下行超1bp。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间 ...

数据名称：2005-2024年管理者短视主义数据 时间：2005-2024年 （词频参考）管理者短视主义影响企业长期投资吗？——基于文本分析和机器学习_胡楠 下载： 包含原始数据、处理代码（stata）、最终结果 指标构建：基于上市公司年报文本进行文本分析和词频统计，将管理者短视主义关键词在年报 MDA 中 的词频占比*100作为衡量管理者短视主义的代理指标。首先整理上市公司年报，并通过Python 的 Java PDFbox 库提取所有文本内容，并进一步筛选出 MDA 部分，以此作为后续特征词筛选的数据基础。搜 集文本后，使用Python 中的jieba 分词将 MDA 部分进行分词处理，生成MDA 整体词频，最后提取管理 者短视主必关键词在年报-MIDA中的词频，计算管理者短视主义关键词在年报MDA 中的词频占比*100 即结果。 管理者短视关键词如下：严峻考验、之时、之际、关头、前夕、即刻、压力、双重压力、困 境、在即、天内、契机、尽快、年内、恰逢、数天、数月、日内、最晚、最迟、来临之际、正逢、立 刻、考验、适逢、通胀压力、遇止、随即、难度、马上。 参考文献： | Sheet1 | | | | | | ...

20 26年宏观经济的重要看点在于价格回升。实际GDP增速预计稳定在5% 左右，符合预期。而通胀指标有望逐步回暖，企业盈利与居民收入亦将随 之改善。总体来说，今年呈现震荡回升的趋势，综合物价水平（如GDP平 减指数）预计在二至三季度实现由负转正，成为年内关键拐点。 中国经济波动复苏 2025年我国GDP实现5%的增长，成效显著。展望2026年，经济增速预计仍将维持在5%左右。值得关注的是名义GDP与实际GDP的关系变化。从季节性走 势看，名义GDP与实际GDP均呈逐步回升态势，重要拐点预计出现在二至三季度。年中名义GDP有望回升至实际GDP之上，整体通胀指标将实现正增 长，这也符合中央经济工作会议提出的促进价格温和复苏的趋势。 文/中信证券首席经济学家 明明 从消费的角度看，今年消费品"以旧换新"政策的支持非常重要。2025年社会消费品零售总额同比增长约3.7%，其中与"以旧换新"政策相关的通信器材、家 电、文化办公用品等类别增速较快，这说明政策效果显著。2026年初，财政部已下达年内首批消费品以旧换新额度，在总额度稳定的基础上进一步扩大覆 盖范围，纳入智能产品、AI眼镜等品类。因此，2026年消费市场将呈现 ...

不过，先抛开马云的预言不谈，单从当前房地产市场趋势来看，手里有两套及以上房子的家庭，未来压力确实会越来越大，并且不是某一个点，而是从四个 方向同时挤压。让我们一起来了解一下： 最近，网上流传着一些"马云预言成真"的说法。比如，"马云早就说过，多套房将成负担"、"手里房子越多，未来越难熬"，以及"2026年多套房家庭将面临4 大问题"等。为此，经过我们对全网的仔细查验，可以判定这是不实信息。马云近期并没有发表过此类讲话。 第一，房子越来越不值钱，成为趋势 近些年，各地房价一直处于长期调整的趋势之中，全国平均房价跌幅超过30%。现在不仅是二三线城市房价在下跌，即使是像上海、深圳等一线城市也已经 加入到房价下跌的队伍中来。2021年上海市中心平均房价在9万多/平米，现在已经跌到了6万多/平米。而未来房子越来越不值钱，已经成为大趋势。而手里 握有多套房子的家庭，将会遇到账面资产在不断缩水的问题。 而导致房子越来越不值钱的原因有三个：①各地的房价仍然存在着较大的泡沫，当地居民不吃不喝几十年，才能买上一套房子。房价已经脱离居民收入水 平，逐步回归到合理的价格区间，乃是必然结果。②现在各行各业都不景气，居民收入放缓，已经支 ...

回望2025年，我国房地产市场和房地产业在深度调整过程中面临一定压力，也在顶压前行中展现韧性。 我国着力促进房地产市场止跌回稳，房地产发展新动能正在转型中逐步形成。 市场呈现筑底调整 本轮房地产市场调整从2021年下半年开始，已经延续4年多时间。2025年，我国房地产市场呈现筑底调 整态势。房地产业是国民经济的重要产业和居民财富的重要来源。促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，关系 我国宏观经济稳定。 2025年，我国着力促进房地产市场止跌回稳，推动构建房地产发展新模式，坚定推动房地产高质量发 展。各地区、各部门形成合力，打赢保交房攻坚战，切实保障购房人合法权益，交付风险大幅度降低， 既保证了社会经济稳定，也为房地产后续发展奠定基础。各地落实好政策"组合拳"，持续释放政策效 应，城市政府充分用好房地产调控自主权，调整优化房地产政策。有关部门统筹防风险和促转型，坚持 市场化、法治化原则，加强销售资金监管，推动地级及以上城市全部建立房地产融资协调机制，"白名 单"项目扩围增效。 2025年，我国房地产业统筹惠民生和稳增长。38个城市开展老旧住房自主更新、原拆原建，266个地级 及以上城市建立住房保障轮候库，以需定建、以需定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes in 2026, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing housing prices and restoring consumer confidence in the face of declining market conditions [2][7]. Policy Measures - The government has introduced a series of unprecedented stimulus policies, including extending tax exemptions for home sales until the end of 2027 and reducing the down payment ratio for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [2][3]. - Local governments are also providing incentives, such as additional square meters for families with multiple children and subsidies to help with mortgage payments [3][5]. - The media's emphasis on housing as a major asset serves as a signal of the government's commitment to support the market [2]. Market Conditions - The real estate market is closely linked to overall consumer confidence, with the decline in housing values impacting spending in other sectors, such as luxury automobiles [5][7]. - National statistics indicate that new home prices in 70 major cities have been declining for 30 consecutive months, with second-hand home prices dropping for 31 months [8][10]. - The average price drop in first-tier cities has exceeded 35% from peak levels in 2021, with some areas experiencing declines of up to 40% [8]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that housing prices will continue to decline slowly, with a forecasted drop of 2-3% in 2026 for new homes nationwide [8][10]. - The market is expected to see a significant divide, where high-quality properties retain value while lower-quality properties face depreciation [10][11]. - The government is likely to continue implementing supportive policies, but the market dynamics have fundamentally shifted, requiring buyers to be more discerning [10][11].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone as it surpassed 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year, aligning with market expectations and the annual growth target set at the beginning of the year [1][3] Growth Drivers - The primary drivers of economic growth were consumption and exports, with notable contributions from the improvement in manufacturing technology and the development of strategic emerging industries, reflecting a transformation in productivity [3][4] - The stock market showed a significant recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 30% in 2025 [4] Financing and Corporate Health - Social financing growth reversed its downward trend, increasing from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 8.3% by the end of 2025, indicating a recovery in overall financing for enterprises, government, and households [4] - Non-financial corporate bank deposits saw a year-on-year growth rate rise from -2.2% in January 2025 to 3.6% by November 2025, suggesting improved cash flow conditions for enterprises [4] Challenges in Demand - Despite positive indicators, challenges remain, particularly the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, which has become a major constraint on economic performance [6][7] - The decline in private investment and weak consumer sentiment, particularly in the housing market, have contributed to slower income growth and hindered consumption recovery [7][8] Policy Recommendations - To break the negative cycle of declining investment and consumption, it is crucial to improve expectations through policy guidance and institutional optimization, making investments and home purchases more attractive [8] - The focus of monetary policy in 2026 should be on achieving a clear inflation target of around 2%, with potential for further interest rate reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [10][12]

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, GDP growth was 4.5%, with an annual GDP of 14,018.79 billion yuan, achieving a target growth of around 5%[12] - The contribution to GDP growth from final consumption expenditure was 2.6%, while net exports contributed 1.64%[12] Industrial Production - In December, industrial added value grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with an annual growth of 5.9%[16] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw added value growth of 9.4% and 9.2%, respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth by 3.5 and 3.3 percentage points[16] Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment in 2025 was 485,186 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with private investment declining by 6.4%[19] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.48%, marking the worst performance in a decade, while manufacturing investment saw a slight increase of 0.6%[19] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in 2025 decreased by 17.2%, the largest decline since the pandemic, with new construction area down by 20.4%[33] - New residential sales area fell by 8.7%, and sales revenue dropped by 12.6% year-on-year[33] Consumer Spending - In December, retail sales of consumer goods grew by only 0.9%, the lowest monthly increase of the year, with an annual growth of 3.7%[49] - Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 4.4%, while online retail sales of physical goods rose by 5.2%[49] Price Trends - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.6% for the year[54] - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with fresh fruit prices recovering to a year-on-year growth of 4.4% in December[57]

80 后楼市观察者，农村娃进城定居，专注地产研究 18 年，是你了解房市变化、掌握置业先机的知心朋友。 这些 天， 好几 楼市政策应出尽出 ，直接让冷清大半年的楼市圈炸了锅。 这话到底啥意思？是压箱底的猛药真要端出来了？ 2026 个关注一年多的老粉丝 不断咨询我。 大家 都围着一月初央媒的重磅文章议论 —— 最扎心的那句 "2026 年的楼市，真能靠这一句话逆风翻盘？ 今天 我们 不绕弯子，就用大白话扒透这背后的门道。 应出尽出 " 1 不等于 猛药满上 我们 先 看 这句 " 应出尽出 " 来自哪里？ 是《求是》杂志开年刊文的明确导向，甚至直言要 " 政策一次性给足、尽可能缩短调整时间 " ，还重申了房地产 " 国民经济基础产业 " 的地位，等于给市场吃了颗明面上的定心丸。 但别光听口号，看看过去一年多的政策就懂了。 从 202 4 年 9 月至今，中央到地方的政策就没停过， " 四个取消、四个降低、两个增加 " 的组合拳打下来，能放的需求端工具基本全用上了：三四线城市限购、限售、限价名存实亡，多数城市首付比例降到 20% 以下，房贷利率跌破 3.5% ，创历史新低。 现在还剩啥？所有人都门儿清 —— 北 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 20, with a fixed rate and a total of 324 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 324 billion yuan, while 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate rising over 5 basis points to around 1.37%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system maintained at 1.30%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged credit bonds were around 1.49%, slightly higher than the previous day. Traders noted that the upcoming tax period caused a slight increase in funding prices, but overall liquidity remained loose [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields. The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.52%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.09%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [11]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, stated that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on increasing total volume, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum. The fiscal deficit and total debt will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending intensity will "only increase" and key areas will be "stronger" [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Deputy Director, Wang Changlin, indicated that the current economic operation faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [12]. Group 6: Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the continuation of tax and fee preferential policies for community family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [13]. Group 7: LPR Rates - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, maintaining stability for eight consecutive months since a decrease in May 2025 [13].