行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 28 日 26Q1 制冷剂长协继续上扬，有机 硅或再迎涨价，关注商业航天、存 储长景气 看好 ——《化工周报 25/12/22-25/12/26》 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势—— 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.c ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [5] Core Views - The polyester chain is experiencing an upward trend, with expectations for the silicone industry to start recovering [2][10] - Supply-demand expectations are improving, particularly for PX and PTA, with no new capacity expected in 2026, leading to a tighter supply situation [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of industry collaboration and self-discipline among major manufacturers to stabilize prices and improve profitability [3][10] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - The PX industry has seen no new capacity additions for two consecutive years, with limited supply expected until new projects in Q4 2026 [2] - PTA has officially ended its rapid expansion phase, with no new capacity expected in 2026, and some companies are proactively reducing production [2] - The polyester filament industry is benefiting from a mature self-discipline mechanism, leading to significant price increases [3] 2. Industry Performance - The chemical sector has shown strong performance, with the industry index rising by 4.2% in the last week, outperforming major indices [24] - Year-to-date, the chemical industry index has increased by 33.6%, indicating strong recovery potential [24] 3. Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tongkun Co., New Fengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical in the polyester sector [9][21] - For the silicone sector, recommended stocks include Xinsilicon, Dongyue Silicon, and Hoshine Silicon [10][21] 4. Price and Margin Analysis - Recent price increases for PX and PTA have been noted, with PX prices reaching 7318 RMB/ton and PTA at 5040 RMB/ton, marking significant week-on-week increases [1][2] - The report anticipates that the profitability of polyester products will improve due to better supply-demand dynamics [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].

2025 年 12 月 27 日 基础化工 有机硅：供给"反内卷"与需求超预期 引子：有机硅行业的发展轨迹，是中国化工产业在转型期的典 型缩影。在新旧动能转换的大势之中，传统领域如房地产需求放 缓确实引发了产品价格周期性调整，然而这一过程也激发了有机 硅在新兴领域的渗透率及单位用量的积极增长，在行业景气较低 阶段依然维持了较好的需求增速。此外伴随行业集中度提高以及 近期"反内卷"升温，有机硅供给侧亦存在结构性优化机会。据 此我们对两个问题进行重点分析：①行业反内卷后续将如何演 绎？②具备超预期潜力的新兴需求领域有哪些？ 协同机制基础夯实，关注减产执行刚性 行业专题 国内有机硅产能扩张周期已逐步落幕，2019-2024 年，我国有机硅产 能从 151.5 万吨增至 344.0 万吨，CAGR 达 17.8%，后续虽有新疆其 亚、云南能投等新增产能规划在建，但具体落地层面的不确定性或使 实际投放有限，供给侧压力依然有望逐步缓解。行业产能集中度则持 续提升，2025 年 CR4 或达 54.7%，形成"一超多强"格局，为"反内 卷"协同奠定基础。2025 年 11 月起，有机硅行业协同会议三连发，对 减产规划和监督 ...

Group 1 - The company has organic silicone materials that are widely used in the aerospace sector due to their excellent high and low-temperature resistance and aging performance [1] - Currently, the company's sales of products in the aerospace field are minimal and do not significantly impact overall performance [1] - The company plans to actively expand its business in response to market and customer demands in the future [1]

有机硅板块领涨，上涨1.76%，其中华盛锂电上涨7.11%，东岳硅材上涨3.88%，瑞泰新材上涨2.87%， 天赐材料、富祥药业、合盛硅业涨超2%。（AI生成） ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Chemicals Industry**: Benefiting from anti-involution policies and domestic demand recovery, with specific sectors like pesticides, refrigerants, organosilicon, and phosphate chemicals seeing improved profitability. The chemical sector index has significantly risen since July 2025, indicating a potential oil price bottom in the first half of 2026 [1][3][6]. - **New Energy Materials**: Experiencing explosive growth in downstream demand, particularly in electric vehicles and energy storage, while upstream resources are limited and midstream capacity expansion lags behind demand, leading to price increases for lithium and cobalt [1][3]. - **Electronics Industry**: Supported by AI hardware demand, semiconductor capacity expansion, and domestic policies, with increased demand for electronic chemicals and storage chips [1][4]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Supply constraints due to resource scarcity, rising extraction costs, and geopolitical disturbances, alongside sustained demand from photovoltaics and energy storage, have driven prices of copper, gold, and silver to historical highs, with expectations for copper prices to continue rising in the first half of 2026 [1][4][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Chemical Sector Performance**: The chemical sector index has risen nearly 40% since July 2025, despite marginal performance declines in Q2 to Q4. The reversal in supply-demand dynamics, particularly on the supply side, has been a key driver of stock price increases [6][12]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The polyester industry chain, particularly PTA and its derivatives, is highlighted as having significant price elasticity and potential for investment due to high concentration and recent price increases driven by global oil demand [7][9]. - **Refrigerants Market**: The refrigerants industry is expected to see price increases due to changes in supply-demand dynamics and anti-dumping measures, with applications in automotive and liquid cooling sectors [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **PPI Recovery**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with a notable decrease of 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline has narrowed significantly [5]. - **Weak Dollar Environment**: The overall weak dollar trend is expected to persist, providing unexpected opportunities despite changes in interest rate expectations [5]. - **Electronics Price Trends**: Significant price increases have been observed in the electronics supply chain, particularly in wafer manufacturing, storage, and analog devices, driven by increased demand and supply constraints [13]. - **Communication Sector**: The optical device sector is experiencing price increases due to rising demand for 1.6T optical modules and 800 laser modules, with expectations for continued price growth in the fiber optics market [15][16]. Future Outlook - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical sector is still in the early stages of a bull market, with expectations for significant performance improvements in 2026 [12]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Continued price increases are anticipated for major metals like copper and aluminum, with a focus on demand-side changes in the latter half of 2026 [22]. - **Lithium Battery Materials**: Prices for lithium and its derivatives are expected to rise due to strong demand growth outpacing supply, with projections for lithium carbonate prices to reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan [24][25]. - **Copper Foil and Membrane Materials**: The copper foil industry is expected to see significant elasticity due to potential supply-demand gaps, while the membrane industry is facing challenges due to long expansion cycles [27][28].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-24 工业硅触底反弹，多晶硅情绪消退 市场分析 2025-12-23，工业硅期货价格偏震荡走高，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一日结算变化 （145）元/吨，变化（1.68）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓213776手，2025-12-22仓单总数为9175手，较前一 日变化156手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 工业硅： SMM统计12月18日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.3万吨，较上周变化-1.43%。其中社会普通仓库13.8万吨，较上 周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库41.5万吨(含未注册成仓单及现货库部分)较上周减少1万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，多晶硅周度产量基本稳定，12 ...

今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 光刻机 | 2.11 | 太赫兹 | -2.72 | | 氟化工概念 | 1.80 | 军工信息化 | -2.54 | | 光刻胶 | 1.61 | DRG/DIP | -2.53 | | PET铜箔 | 1.57 | 赛马概念 | -2.38 | | 中芯国际概念 | 1.57 | 卫星导航 | -2.35 | | 液冷服务器 | 1.56 | 华为盘古 | -2.25 | | PVDF概念 | 1.43 | 天津自贸区 | -2.15 | | 有机硅概念 | 1.40 | 移动支付 | -2.06 | | 钠离子电池 | 1.40 | 冰雪产业 | -1.86 | | 固态电池 | 1.19 | 无人零售 | -1.83 | 截至12月23日收盘，有机硅概念上涨1.40%，位居概念板块涨幅第8，板块内，35股上涨，三孚股份、 集泰股份等涨停，华盛锂电、天赐材料、富祥药业等涨幅居前，分别上涨11.81%、9.37%、6.09%。跌 幅居前的有德联集团、博菲电气 ...