以"反内卷"促"企业合理利润率" 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 目录 01 本轮内卷式竞争的起源与表现 02 本轮内卷式竞争的宏微观影响 03 企业合理利润率—宏观增长的微观动因 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 导言 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券分析师：董德志 02160933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø "内卷式"竞争的起源及表现 • 新范式下，需求偏弱与同质化扩张让存量市场竞争加速，企业内卷成为典型症候 Ø "内卷式"竞争的宏微观影响 • 一方面直接压低价格、挤压企业利润率，另一方面间接抑制消费与创新 Ø "内卷式"竞争如何破解？ • 短期来看，仍需依靠行政协调破除地方保护与行业壁垒， "反内卷"还要继续 • 长期来看，更应抓住"宏观问题"背后的"微观动因" ，以企业合理利润率为政策锚，助推政府、企业、居民、 资本市场进入良性循环，搭建宏微观桥梁 Ø 为什么要以利润率为锚？ • 合理利润率既防止"倾销"引发恶性内卷的底线，也约束"垄断" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to market sentiment changes in industrial silicon and the situation of the Beijing meeting in polysilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,815 yuan/ton, with a volume of 256,241 lots, and an open interest of 234,800 lots. PS2605 closing price is 50,000 yuan/ton, with a volume of 18,297 lots, and an open interest of 38,411 lots [1] - Industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 35 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the continuous - first inter - period is 51.2 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 120.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium to East China Si5530 is + 535 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type re - investment material is + 3750 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53500 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 are - 2316.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 5509 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 33.3 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Costs - The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Downstream Products of Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - The prices and profit situations of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit is 1912 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 23650 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 360 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6233 newly - established on - record new energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaics) nationwide, including 36 wind power projects, 6190 photovoltaic power generation projects (48 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects and 6142 industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects), and 7 biomass power generation projects [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Core Viewpoint - The successful implementation of the self-developed silicon-based immersion cooling solution by the company marks a significant advancement in cooling technology for data centers, demonstrating its reliability and energy efficiency [1][2] Group 1: Product Features and Benefits - The silicon-based cooling liquid developed by the company exhibits high insulation, low volatility, strong thermal stability, and environmental friendliness, allowing direct contact with server core components for effective heat dissipation [1] - The immersion cooling solution has achieved a power density of 210 kW per cabinet, supporting multi-card parallel computing needs and providing services for various computing clients [1] - The project has demonstrated a reduction in Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) to below 1.1, achieving a 35% energy saving compared to traditional cooling methods, showcasing superior energy efficiency [1] Group 2: Industry Trends and Future Applications - As the scale and power of data centers continue to increase, efficient cooling technologies are rapidly developing, with immersion cooling becoming a mainstream solution due to its low energy costs and high heat dissipation capabilities [1] - The immersion cooling solution effectively addresses the thermal bottlenecks faced by traditional air cooling and cold plate liquid cooling in ultra-high power density computing clusters, setting a new technical benchmark for next-generation computing center cooling [1] - The successful operation of the project serves as a mature model for the large-scale promotion and replication of related technologies, with the company planning to offer solutions for large-scale supercomputing centers, distributed computing centers, energy storage centers, and power communication fields [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a dual drive of cyclical recovery and growth, with a focus on organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [5][6] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming the core growth engine. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity is rapidly expanding, leading to temporary oversupply and continuous price declines. However, by 2025, no new capacity is expected, and demand from emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics is maintaining high growth [5][6] - The PTA and polyester filament industry is moving towards a new prosperity cycle as the capacity expansion phase is nearing its end, with new capacity mainly concentrated in leading enterprises [6] - The refrigerant market is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies and stable demand growth from the heat pump and cold chain markets [7] - The synthetic biology sector is expected to see explosive demand growth as fossil-based materials face disruptive challenges, with a focus on energy-efficient products [8] - OLED technology is accelerating its penetration into larger displays, supported by government policies promoting the new display industry [9] - The demand for electronic chemicals is increasing due to the rapid development of the semiconductor industry, particularly in China, where the market is heavily reliant on imports [11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 12th with a decline of 0.86% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026 [20] - The top three performing sectors were oil and petrochemicals (7.95%), communications (5.83%), and coal (3.68%) [20] Key Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is promoting the mercury-free transformation of the PVC industry, focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts [36] - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to increased oil prices, with WTI crude averaging $61.33 per barrel, up 2.39% from the previous week [36]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The ultra-luxury market has significant potential for domestic alternatives, with the Jianghuai brand expected to improve profitability through increased sales of the Zun Jie model [4][5] - The ultra-luxury car market has historically sold between 150,000 to 200,000 units annually, with domestic brands currently holding a low market share, indicating substantial future growth opportunities [4] - Jianghuai's Q3 2025 financial report shows a notable improvement in revenue and gross margin, with expectations for continued growth as the Zun Jie model begins larger-scale deliveries [5][6] Group 2: Paper Industry - The price of white cardboard is set to increase by 200 RMB per ton starting March 1, 2026, following a previous increase in January, which is expected to positively impact profitability for leading companies in the sector [7][8] - The average price of white cardboard rose by 291.05 RMB per ton from August 2025 to December 2025, indicating a recovery trend in the industry [8] - The company reported a revenue of 14.45 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, and a production increase of 12.39% in the same period [9] Group 3: Organic Silicon Industry - The demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, particularly in sectors such as electronics, construction, and renewable energy, with projected consumption growth rates of 8.0% to 8.8% from 2025 to 2027 [11][12] - The expansion of organic silicon supply is slowing, with new capacity expected to be limited in the coming years, which may help stabilize prices [12] - The "anti-involution" consensus among industry leaders is expected to positively influence pricing and market conditions, aiding in the recovery of the industry's profitability [12][13] Group 4: Food Processing Industry - The company anticipates a core operating profit growth of 44.8% to 51.2% for 2025, with projected revenues of approximately 7.75 to 7.85 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [17][18] - The expansion of store numbers and market penetration in rural areas is driving revenue growth, with a total of 11,566 stores expected by the end of 2025 [19] - The company is focusing on building a membership system and enhancing online sales channels, which are expected to strengthen its market position [19] Group 5: Military Electronics Industry - The company forecasts a net profit of 338 to 388 million RMB for 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses, driven by demand for AI and cloud computing technologies [20][22] - The company is actively collaborating with major tech firms and expanding its product offerings in AI and data center infrastructure, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [23][24] - The company plans to invest in expanding its production capacity in key technology areas, including AI and defense applications, to capitalize on market opportunities [24][25] Group 6: AI and Software Development Industry - The company expects a net profit of 785 to 950 million RMB for 2025, with a growth rate of 40% to 70%, driven by advancements in AI models and increased sales [26][27] - The launch of the new AI model "Xunfei Starfire X1.5" is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the AI market, with significant project wins reported [28][30] - The company is expanding its B2B AI applications and has achieved notable sales success in consumer AI hardware, indicating strong market demand [30][31] Group 7: Biopharmaceutical Industry - The ADC drug market is experiencing rapid growth, with global sales expected to reach 66.2 billion USD by 2030, driven by increased R&D efforts from domestic companies [32][34] - Domestic companies are leveraging existing technologies to optimize ADC drugs, with several products showing potential to become best-in-class [33][34] - The increasing number of ADC drug pipelines in China is expected to lead to a significant number of new drug approvals in the coming years, enhancing market competitiveness [35] Group 8: Automotive Components Industry - The domestic electric vehicle market is projected to grow by 28.2% in 2025, with the company focusing on high-voltage power supply solutions for electric vehicles [37][38] - The company has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and is expanding its international client base, which is expected to enhance profitability [38][39] - The company anticipates a net profit of 210 to 250 million RMB for 2025, driven by increased demand in the electric vehicle sector and successful capacity expansion [39][41]

Core Viewpoint - Jianghan New Materials has released 122 million restricted shares for circulation, with several executives committing not to reduce their holdings within a year, indicating confidence in the company's future development and aiming to alleviate short-term market pressure from the share unlock [1][3]. Group 1: Share Unlocking Details - Jianghan New Materials announced that 122 million shares, accounting for 32.58% of the total share capital, will be released for circulation starting February 2, 2026, due to the end of a 36-month lock-up period [1][3]. - The company’s eight directors and senior management have pledged not to transfer or reduce their holdings from February 2, 2026, to February 1, 2027, which is intended to convey management's confidence in the company's future [3]. Group 2: Company Background and Operations - Jianghan New Materials specializes in the research, production, sales, and import-export trade of functional organosilicon and other silicon-based new materials, recognized as a national manufacturing champion and a "little giant" enterprise [3]. - The company is accelerating capacity expansion with a new 60,000 tons/year trichlorosilane project planned in its green circular industry park, which will increase its total trichlorosilane capacity to 120,000 tons/year [3][4]. Group 3: Production and Global Expansion - The new facility addresses the mismatch between trichlorosilane production capacity and the current and future growth of silane production, utilizing HCL, a byproduct of silane production, as a raw material for trichlorosilane [4]. - Jianghan New Materials is deepening its global layout with over ten overseas warehouses established in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the United States, and plans to initiate overseas manufacturing to solve local service challenges [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for 恒星科技 Company Overview - **Company**: 恒星科技 - **Industry**: Chemical and Metal Products Key Points Chemical Segment - From 2022 to mid-2025, the decline in organic silicon prices has led to losses in the chemical segment, but profitability is expected to resume from October 2024 due to technological upgrades [2][3] - The chemical segment incurred losses of over 70 million yuan in 2023 and 30 million yuan in 2024, with expectations for improved performance in 2025 if prices stabilize [3] - The company has a production capacity of 150,000 tons per month for organic silicon, but actual output is around 10,000 tons per month due to industry production restrictions [4][5] - The high-performance silicon polymer project is progressing well, with expected monthly output of over 10,000 tons upon full capacity [4] Metal Products Segment - The metal products segment includes galvanized steel wire, steel strands, and prestressed steel strands, which are stable, but the diamond wire saws have seen price declines due to the photovoltaic industry's downturn [2][5] - The company is transitioning from carbon steel diamond wire to tungsten wire to enhance capacity and reduce costs [5][9] - In 2025, the overall performance of the metal products segment is expected to be stable, benefiting from ultra-high voltage construction, although slightly lower than in 2024 [2][9] Market Dynamics - The domestic organic silicon industry controls production capacity to alleviate competition, with Dow's exit from the market expected to boost domestic companies' performance [6][7] - Domestic organic silicon production accounts for over 50% of global capacity, and a demand rebound could provide significant growth opportunities [8] Future Outlook - The company plans to focus on the chemical segment while stabilizing the metal products segment and expanding overseas operations [4][17] - In 2026, all segments are expected to see revenue growth, with improvements driven by technological advancements and cost reductions [19] - The company is also exploring gold mining opportunities, with ongoing exploration expected to resume in spring 2026 [13][14] Financial Health - Accounts receivable have remained stable, with low risk due to a cash-on-delivery model in the chemical segment and a manageable credit policy in the metal products segment [16] - The company aims to improve profitability through strategic order management, prioritizing high-margin orders [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas business, including a steel strand production line in Vietnam, and will adjust its gold mining strategy based on exploration results [17][18] - The organic silicon market is expected to grow, with the company monitoring DMC price trends and maintaining a direct sales model to downstream enterprises [18][20]

Core Insights - The investment philosophy emphasizes understanding major trends and leveraging historical insights to identify investment opportunities [1][4] - A shift in investment strategy occurred in 2023, moving from a long-term buy-and-hold approach to a more flexible trading strategy that includes low-position entry, timely profit-taking, and sector rotation [2][3] Investment Strategy - The first phase of the investment career (2017-2022) focused on long-term value investing, with some stocks held for over a year, but faced challenges in timing profit-taking [2] - The second phase introduced a "low-position layout + trend-based profit-taking + high-low switching" strategy, allowing for dynamic adjustments based on market conditions [2][3] - The approach includes diversifying investments across low-correlated sectors to mitigate risks and adhering to strict profit-taking disciplines [5][7] Sector Focus - The chemical sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of a "profit + valuation double boost" trend from 2022 to 2025, driven by supply-side adjustments and stable demand growth [6] - Specific segments within the chemical industry, such as spandex and organic silicon, are noted for their potential due to improving supply dynamics and strong pricing power among leading companies [6] Research Methodology - The research approach includes attending industry conferences and engaging in one-on-one dialogues with companies to gain comprehensive insights into the entire supply chain [1][4] - The ability to identify investment opportunities is enhanced by recognizing market discrepancies and leveraging historical patterns [4] Performance and Goals - The investment products have shown strong performance over the past three years, reflecting the effectiveness of the new trading strategy [3] - The goal is to maintain a balanced approach between sharp performance and low volatility, avoiding the pitfalls of being a single-sector focused fund manager [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the organic silicon industry [1][100]. Core Insights - The demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, driven by applications in electronics, construction, manufacturing, and textiles, with significant growth expected in photovoltaic adhesives and new energy lithium battery adhesives [7][22]. - Supply expansion in the organic silicon sector is slowing down, with the industry entering the tail end of a capacity expansion cycle, leading to limited new capacity in the coming years [7][68]. - The "anti-involution" trend is positively impacting the industry's recovery from the bottom, with recent meetings among industry leaders resulting in price increases for organic silicon intermediates [7][84]. Summary by Sections Demand and Supply - Organic silicon demand is projected to grow at rates of 8.0%, 7.0%, and 8.8% from 2025 to 2027 in China [7]. - The supply of organic silicon is expected to see limited new capacity additions, with only 45,000 tons projected from Xinjiang Qiya Group by 2027 [7][68]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of organic silicon intermediates has increased by approximately 27% from November 2025 to January 2026, reflecting strong industry support for price stabilization [7][84]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual decrease in inventory levels and maintaining a reasonable operating rate of 70%-75% [88]. Key Companies and Investment Focus - The report highlights key companies in the organic silicon sector, including Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, Sanyou Chemical, and Hengxing Technology, as potential investment targets [7][100].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].