机构看后市 A股三大股指集体低开，沪指跌0.19%，创业板指跌0.21%。盘面上，消费电子、英伟达概念、核污染板 块涨幅居前，创新药、贵金属、机器人板块跌幅靠前。 行业配置建议：科技与周期的双轮驱动。(1)科技内部的修复和高低切：军工、传媒(游戏)、AI应用、港 股互联网、电池、核心AI硬件;(2)PPI改善加广谱反内卷受益：光伏、化工、钢铁、有色、电力、机械; (3)中长期底仓：稳定型红利、黄金、优化的高股息。 东方证券：中期趋势仍是震荡整固，近期TMT、上游资源品值得关注 东方证券认为，当前A股抢筹格局非常明显;一方面，年报即将进入预热期，算力板块业绩相对确定，吸 引资金提前抢跑;另一方面，全球正处于AI产业革命浪潮中，AI带动的算力需求以及应用非常乐观，产 业链国产化趋势明确，相关企业具备替代机会。 短期来看，市场处于日线级别反弹之中，但中期趋势仍是震荡整固，因此本月沪综指核心运行区间 3850-3950区间概率较高;配置角度来看，近期TMT、上游资源品、AI链、军工航天等值得重点关注。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。 广发证券：12月大盘表现优于小盘，红利风格会阶段性占优 广发证券认为， ...

开源证券指出，科技+周期的双轮驱动的主线仍将延续，在全球科技大周期的共振下，科技的相对盈利 与景气优势有望延续。而周期行业在"反内卷"为主要政策底色背景下，辅之PPI边际修复与再通胀的交 易预期同样也大有可为。两者有望殊途同归。建议关注：(1)科技内部的修复和高低切：军工、传媒(游 戏)、AI应用、港股互联网、电池、核心AI硬件；(2)PPI改善加广谱反内卷受益：光伏、化工、钢铁、 有色、电力、机械；(3)中长期底仓：稳定型红利、黄金、优化的高股息。 兴业证券指出，考虑2026年仍处于关税扰动区间，以及全球经济低位增长、订单透支效应逐步显现、转 口贸易监管趋严等因素影响，外需或有所承压。但结构上，中国制造业竞争优势凸显、新兴市场"再工 业化"需求持续演绎等因素支撑下，2026年中国出口仍有望保持平稳增长。具体而言，2026年中国外需 可把握以下四个增量机会：1.新兴市场"再工业化"需求带来的结构性支撑；2.中国制造业竞争优势正逐 步体现；3.出海布局牵引国内产业链、价值链升级；4.政策聚焦下的服务贸易增长潜力空间。 中原证券认为，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，A股市场的投资首先要紧跟"十五五"规划建议的政 ...

来源：冀星策略 报告摘要 ● 躁动的空间往往源于前期的调整，提前布局必要性上升 针对第一个问题，我们认为不单单是日历效应和行为金融学的解释，从政策周期/宏观节奏+产业运行规律+流动性季节性因素+机构调仓与预期博弈等多角 度看，躁动本身具备一定合理性。因此自2010年以来鲜有春季躁动缺席的年份，当前我们认为躁动仍是大概率事件。 第二个问题，我们认为从历史规律和市场行为的角度来看，春季躁动并不严格限定在"春季"这一自然时段内，其本质是一种由宏观预期、流动性改善、机 构行为模式与风险偏好周期共同驱动的阶段性风险偏好提升。因而其出现时间具有可前置性、可后移性，甚至会在跨年节点提前酝酿。而本轮恰逢两大因 素共同作用—11月的显著调整叠加春节较晚且估值牛市仍在途中，那么提前躁动的可能性相对较大，并非只能在春季发生。建议12月提前布局春季躁动。 ● 春季躁动的行业表现规律—科技or周期或许本轮不是二选一 整体来看，春季躁动并非市场的随机波动，而是具有结构性规律和预测价值。历史统计显示，成长型春季躁动在历次春季行情中占比近六成，是最具代表 性的春季行情类型，流动性宽松 + 科技政策预期的放大器为主要驱动力。而周期型春季躁动的 ...

| | 20251208汉森机械(873343)大宗交易 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司简称 | 成交价 * 成交数量 * 成交金额 * (元/股) | (股) | (元) | 折溢价 * (%) | 买入营业部 | 卖出营业部 | | 汉森机械 | 3.44 | 230万 | 791.2万 | 3.93 | 中信建投证券股份 有限公司常州分公 미 | 华泰证券股份有限公 司南京长江路证券营 业部 | | 汉森机械 | 3.44 | 163.26万 | 561.61万 | 3.93 | 中信建投证券股份 有限公司常州分公 브 | 华泰证券股份有限公 司南京长江路证券营 业部 | 每经讯，2025年12月8日，新三板创新层公司汉森机械（873343，收盘价：3.31元）发生2笔大宗交易，总成交金额为1352.81万 元，成交金额最高的一笔成交价3.44元/股，成交数量230万股，成交金额791.2万元，溢价3.93%。买入营业部是中信建投证券股 份有限公司常州分公司，卖出营业部是华泰证券股份有限公司南京长江路证券营业部。 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Bank of America suggests that the market may soon start betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, despite cautious signals from the Fed [1] - The bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in December, along with stronger guidance and dissenting opinions, projecting stronger growth and lower inflation [1] - Analysts believe that with significant data releases before January, Chairman Powell will find it difficult to suppress market expectations for further easing [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook in Thailand - Barclays economists report that the Bank of Thailand may resist rate hikes in 2026 due to lower-than-potential growth prospects and inflation rates below the 1%-3% target range [2] - The central bank aims to maintain a loose monetary policy and focus on addressing structural economic issues [2] - Even with rising price pressures, the central bank is unlikely to change its policy stance, prioritizing economic growth and financial stability over inflation [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Technology and Commodities - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) sees significant investment opportunities in the technology sector within the machinery industry for 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery and high export growth [3] - CITIC Construction points out that copper, aluminum, and gold have clear long-term investment logic due to global macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4] - The report highlights that copper will benefit from supply tightness and green economy demand, while aluminum is constrained by domestic capacity limits [4] Group 4: Energy Storage and AI Development - CITIC Construction expects the energy storage industry to see a rise in both volume and price by 2026, with manufacturing profitability currently at unsustainable low levels [5] - The ongoing development of AI large models and applications is noted, with a recommendation to continue focusing on the AI computing power sector [6] - The report emphasizes the potential for new application scenarios and business models arising from the construction of space data centers [8] Group 5: Market Predictions for Copper and Panel Industry - CITIC Securities predicts that LME copper prices could accelerate towards $12,000 per ton, driven by narratives of U.S. copper stockpiling and domestic production cuts [8] - The panel industry is expected to see a positive long-term outlook due to improved competition dynamics and a shift from price-driven profit to value creation [9]

截至发稿，中电电机市值为60亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——处方药变"瘾品"：国内首次报告普瑞巴林滥用致成瘾病例，网络平台暴 露"无病历可购药"漏洞，列管与否尚需科学考量 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，中电电机（SH 603988，收盘价：25.69元）12月8日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届第六次 董事会会议于2025年12月8日以书面传签的方式召开。会议审议了《关于修订公司部分治理制度的议 案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，中电电机的营业收入构成为：机械占比100.0%。 ...

（来源：肥猫财经） 板块A股获得的融资净买入额位列前五,而交通运输、 非银金融、建筑、公用事业 II、化工板块A股的融资净 买入额排名末五位。 数据来源：Wind，截止日为2025年12月5日 市场概况 1271 以 | 以出\ 2025年以来两融余额走势图 8,000 25 000 6 000 .000 2025年以来融资余额与每日融资净买入额走势图 30.000 2025年以来融券余额与每日融券卖出额走势图 200 14 12 150 10 8 100 50 秀余额(乙元)(左轴) 期间实出额亿元 交易数据 近一周融资净买入额排名前五的行业 ■融资净买入额(亿元) ■近一周涨跌幅(%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 半导体 有色金属 硬件设备 国防军工 机械 12.65 27.62 22.53 18.03 17.03 2.11 3.35 2.11 4.31 1 . 12 单位:亿元 近一周融资净买入额排名后五的行业 ■融资净买入额(亿元) ■近一周涨跌幅 (%) 0 - | IV -15 -20 -30 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Policy Trends - Some leading brokerages are expected to benefit from the appropriate easing of capital space and leverage restrictions, which may strengthen the brokerage sector and further boost market sentiment [5][4] - The insurance sector is rebounding due to the adjustment of related business risk factors, with the non-bank sector likely to lead the market sentiment recovery during the year-end period [5][4] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has announced adjustments to the risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments and overseas investment insurance, aiming to enhance long-term investment management capabilities [4][5] Overseas Macro - The U.S. job market is currently in a state of mild slowdown, with the ADP employment figure for November dropping significantly to -32,000, far below the expected 10,000 [6] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is approximately 87%, as high interest rates are suppressing employment in interest-sensitive sectors [6] Bond Market - After a rapid rise in long-term yields, the 30-10Y government bond yield spread has gradually returned to a historically reasonable range, indicating initial signs of value for allocation after a significant drop [7][15] - The central bank has continued to net withdraw funds, with a total net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan through reverse repos during the first week of December [7][9] Equity Market - The market style continues to favor resource products and AI, with non-bank sectors gaining momentum, particularly in commercial aerospace and robotics, which have strengthened the military and machinery sectors [16][21] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% and 1.86%, respectively [16] Investment Strategy - The company is optimistic about technology, brokerages, and consumer sectors as the market approaches the year-end offensive [2][22] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to lead to more proactive economic policies, with a focus on stabilizing the short-term macro economy and further easing monetary policy [22][24]

Market Overview - Major indices closed higher on December 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.36%[2] - Trading volume reached 1.74 trillion CNY, an increase of approximately 180 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Non-bank financials, metals, machinery, and military industries showed significant gains, while the banking sector experienced a slight decline[1] - The communication computing sector surged due to strong performance from newly listed domestic chip companies, although high valuations may pose future risks[1] Capital Flow - On December 5, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange totaled 36.67 billion CNY, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 19.48 billion CNY[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were general equipment, communication equipment, and industrial metals[3] Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated a total of 35.5 billion CNY for employment support projects, aiming to create over 1.1 million jobs for low-income individuals[4] - The focus is on promoting employment and income growth through targeted investment projects[4] Industry Insights - The second-hand car market in October saw a transaction volume of 1.76 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[8] - The cumulative transaction volume for second-hand cars from January to October reached 16.49 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[8] Technology and Market Trends - The global smart vacuum cleaner market experienced a shipment increase of 18.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total of 17.42 million units shipped[9] - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for significant growth, with a potential trillion-level market emerging due to advancements in technology and policy support[10]

大类资产：上周(12月1日-12月5日)全球市场风险偏好上升，但对通胀有复杂预期。首先，风险资产普 涨，全球主要股指尤其是亚洲和科技股、工业金属、能源表现强势。近期LME铜交割订单激增创下 2013年以来的单日增幅，其中中国台湾和韩国仓库的需求尤为强劲，直接推动了LME铜价近期突破历 史新高。其次，避险资产承压，黄金下跌，主要国债价格下跌。再次，美元走弱，美元兑多数主要货币 汇率贬值。最后，农产品普遍下跌，主要受供需或天气预期影响。上周美联储降息预期升温，截至12月 5日，CME"美联储观察"工具显示，下周降息25个基点的概率为86.2%。 智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，上周美联储降息预期升温，截至12月5日，CME"美联储 观察"工具显示，下周降息25个基点的概率为86.2%。展望未来，12月即将召开的中央政治局会议、中 央经济工作会议与美联储议息会议，有望为市场提供中长期政策方向和短期流动性信号。配置方面，建 议关注以下板块：第一，受益于美联储降息预期升温的板块，如贵金属等。第二，中央经济工作会议聚 焦方向，关注可能被重点提及或获得产业政策支持的领域，如新质生产力、内需消费等领域。第三，随 ...