Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - month cotton contracts perform stronger than the forward contracts [1]. - The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 13,585 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.93%, and 13,620 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.26% increase. Its trading volume was 428,347 lots, an increase of 132,909 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 960,358 lots, an increase of 14,617 lots [1]. - CY2601 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a 1.77% increase, and 20,090 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase. Its trading volume was 24,063 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,700 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE cotton No.3 closed at 64.08 cents/pound yesterday with a 0.23% increase [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,240, a decrease of 4 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,294, an increase of 73 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, a decrease of 3 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 17 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.83% from the previous day [1]. - The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,493 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan or 0.91% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.01% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Hebei was 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or - 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or - 0.02% from the previous day [1]. - The international cotton index M was 71.87 cents/pound, an increase of 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan or - 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton more than the previous day's spread [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 10 yuan less than the previous day's spread [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton was stable with little change. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases with weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes were stable, and the prices were basically the same as those of point - price transactions. The spot sales basis was stable [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The prices of pure - cotton yarn were generally stable, and the overall market sales were sluggish. Recently, the high - count pure - cotton yarn sold relatively well, while the trading of other counts was slow, and the overall sales volume continued to decline. Some large spinning mills in the inland offered discounts to reduce inventory, and some small and medium - sized spinning mills switched to order - based production. There was no obvious inventory pressure, but they generally reported a decrease in orders. The market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with small - order transactions. Attention should be paid to the spring orders in the future [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, demand is not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remains at a moderately weak level, and the previous decline in the futures market has digested the bearish impact of a bumper harvest. Currently, there is no strong driving force for the market, and it is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was reported at 63.93 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.21 cents per pound or 0.33% from the previous week. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at -1.26 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton or 0.07% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,371 yuan per ton, a decrease of 435 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 917 yuan per ton, a decrease of 425 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reported at 15 yuan per ton, an increase of 35 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: According to the latest monthly supply - demand report data from the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the production in the US increased by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; and the production in China increased by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36%. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of November 14, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points compared to the average of the past five years (72.6%); the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [9]. - **View and Strategy**: It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy recommendation is to wait and see [9][11]. 2. Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and spreads of US cotton contracts, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [23]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [37]. - **Cotton Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are presented, as well as the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [39][42]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [47]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented, as well as the raw material and finished product inventories of spinning mills [52][54]. 4. International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Charts show the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the good - excellent rate of US cotton, production, planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio [58]. - **Brazil Situation**: The planting area, production, and export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio are presented [70]. - **India Situation**: The planting area, production, consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The November USDA report increased the production estimates of the US and China, which was overall bearish. With the increase in new cotton processing volume, the market's estimate of the new - season cotton production was also raised. Downstream demand was average, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in finished products, but the overall pressure was not significant. As seed cotton procurement was nearing completion, the supply pressure was becoming more evident with the concentrated listing of new cotton. It was expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures would be weak in the short term. Key factors to watch were macro - economic conditions, demand, and policies [3]. - The November USDA report did not adjust the harvested price of US cotton but raised the yield per unit, ultimately increasing the US cotton production estimate by 200,000 tons compared to September. It also increased China's cotton production estimate by 220,000 tons and Brazil's by 110,000 tons. Globally, the cotton production estimate was raised by 520,000 tons, and the ending inventory estimate was increased by 600,000 tons compared to September, showing a bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Production and Supply - As of November 13, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.3%, the delivery rate was 95.5%, the processing rate was 56%, and the sales rate was 22.8%. As of November 16, the national new cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 3.0893 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.24% [6]. - According to the USDA's weekly export report, as of the week ending September 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81%, a 4% decrease from the four - week average, and a year - on - year increase of 77% [24]. - As of 24:00 on November 17, the cotton inspection volume in the 25/26 season was about 3.1708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 19.73% [42]. Cotton Market Price and Index - From November 10 to November 17, the price of the ZCE active cotton contract dropped from 13,580 yuan/ton to 13,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton, and the ICE active cotton contract dropped from 64.34 cents/pound to 64.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.13 cents/pound [10]. - From November 10 to November 17, the CotlookA price index dropped from 75.2 cents/pound to 74.4 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.80 cents/pound, and the Indian S - 6 spot price dropped from 52,300 rupees/candy to 51,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 400 rupees/candy [12]. - From November 10 to November 17, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarns such as Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S all decreased [14]. - From November 10 to November 17, the arrival prices of imported cotton such as US EMOT M and Brazilian M under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty all decreased [15]. Textile and Apparel Market - In October 2025, China's textile and apparel export volume was 2.2619 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Among them, textile exports decreased by 9.10% year - on - year and 5.92% month - on - month, and apparel exports decreased by 15.97% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month [4]. - Benefiting from the pre - promotion of "Double Eleven", clothing consumption showed a stable recovery trend. In October, the retail sales of textiles and apparel reached 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the growth rate increased by 1.6 percentage points month - on - month, significantly outperforming the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. Inventory and Related Indicators - As of this Wednesday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5,314, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28 [69]. - On Tuesday of this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week. The price index of C32S yarn increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week [54][55]. - On Tuesday of this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under sliding - scale duty and 1% tariff increased week - on - week. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port pick - up price increased week - on - week [58]. - On Tuesday of this week, on the futures market, the price difference between the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract and the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract widened week - on - week, and the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn showed a wider loss week - on - week [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a short - term oscillatory decline. Although there was a short - term agreement in Sino - US negotiations and the subsequent export tariff to the US was reduced by 10%, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. The poor textile export data in October also contributed to the decline. However, due to cost support, the downside space is limited. It is currently an opportunity for medium - to - long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and layout far - month contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Prompt No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons; USDA's 9 - month report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons; the Rural Ministry's November forecast shows a production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. - **Export and Import Data**: In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. In September, China imported 1 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 1.3 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: - **Positive Factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for this part was found in the provided text.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pressure of new cotton listings still suppresses cotton futures prices. The overall market shows a weak trend, with cotton spot trading being light, and the cotton textile industry in a traditional off - season with cautious market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Cotton Futures Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,695 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 19,710 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 210,406 lots, an increase of 6,629 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 918,018 lots, a decrease of 24,420 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 13,433 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,401, an increase of 221, and the effective forecast was 643, a decrease of 235. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 28, a decrease of 2, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 30 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Cotton Spot Prices**: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,454 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28% compared to the previous day; the price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,393 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28%. The prices in Shandong and Hebei also showed slight declines [1]. - **Yarn Spot Prices**: The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,100 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or - 0.18% [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was light, and sales basis was mostly stable, with a decrease in low - basis goods. The one - price quotes for northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29B, impurity within 3.5) were above 14,550 yuan/ton, and the point - price basis was mostly above CF01 + 1050. The mainstream lower sales basis for southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3) was between CF01 + 900 and 1050 [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: Pure cotton yarn trading was light, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream markets focused on shipments, and spinning mills' sales slowed down, with inventory slightly increasing. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with clothing grey fabric sales being flat and home textile grey fabric sales continuing. Orders were mainly inquiries for export orders, and the increase in domestic spring - summer orders was limited [1][2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell below the October low because the US Department of Agriculture raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The short - term situation is that during the new cotton listing and harvest period, the new cotton output exceeds expectations, and although it is the demand peak season, downstream orders are less than expected, which may put pressure on cotton prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose, domestic output may reach a recent high, and demand growth is insufficient, so the cotton price is expected to run at a low level. Therefore, in the short - term, the cotton price is weakening, and the operation strategy should be to sell short on rallies [2]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, corresponding hedging operations are proposed. For example, for those worried about rising cotton prices, they can buy call options; for those worried about falling cotton prices, they can sell futures for hedging [2]. - Attention should be paid to data such as US cotton exports and USDA report data [2]. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered to some extent, and the ending inventory has increased. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production remains at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The USDA September report shows that in 2024/26, the global output is 2595.7 tons, consumption is 2544.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1612.6 tons; in 2025/26, the output is 2562.2 tons, consumption is 2581.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1592.5 tons [56][57]. - In Brazil, the new - season production forecast remains high. The 2024/26 season's total production is expected to be 407.7 tons, and in 2025/26, it is expected to be 402.8 tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area [63]. - In India, although the area of unginned cotton has decreased this year and there have been local rainfall disasters, the production is expected to be relatively optimistic, ranging from 300 - 570 tons [63]. - In the US, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area increased, the harvested area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvested area increased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the production is expected to decrease. The US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but the subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [63]. Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In terms of production, in 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the production reached a recent high. It is expected that the production in Xinjiang may be about 6.4 million tons, and the national production is expected to be about 6.85 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and the weather in the producing areas was generally good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5% [17][22]. - In terms of inventory, last year's cotton imports decreased significantly, and the commercial inventory decreased significantly. After entering the new season, with the listing of new cotton, the inventory quickly recovered. As of the end of October 2025, the cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, a decrease of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 0.8882 million tons, a decrease of 0.0427 million tons from the previous month [20][23]. - In terms of imports, the domestic cotton production and sales have a certain gap, and imports are needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued, but the quantity was low, and the import increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. In 2026, the 1% tariff quota is 894,000 tons. According to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China has lowered the import tariff on US cotton by 15%, but still retains a 10% additional tariff [30]. - In terms of downstream demand, overseas interest - rate cut rhythms are still variable, but the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are progressing smoothly, and trade policy disturbances have eased. Domestic policies are strengthening to boost the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Downstream orders are insufficient, textile enterprises' finished - product inventories are higher than the same period last year, the operating load is at a low level, and the industrial chain is under great pressure. Textile and clothing exports have decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while retail data has performed well [37]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as national reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the national reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. In 2025, the planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual成交 was 0.8639 million tons, the成交 rate was 71.27%, and the average成交 price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [46][47]. Price Difference and Basis - The report presents data on cotton spreads such as 1 - 5 spreads, 9 - 1 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, and basis data for different contracts (01, 05, 09), which can help analyze the market structure and price relationships [69][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices are slightly falling due to a lack of upward - driving factors. The cotton market shows different trends in different segments, with domestic cotton spot having good trading but the cotton - textile market being sluggish, and ICE cotton futures continuing to decline [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,515 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 13475 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% to - 0.20% overnight increase. CY2601 closed at 19,790 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 19750 yuan/ton. ICE cotton futures closed at 64.82 cents/pound yesterday with a - 0.93% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 381,126 lots, an increase of 181,748 compared to the previous day, and its position was 941,724 lots, a decrease of 5,344. The trading volume of CY2601 was 14,275 lots, a decrease of 1,999, and its position was 24,392 lots, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,884, an increase of 265, and the effective forecast was 1,135, a decrease of 19. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 31, an increase of 12, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 7 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan compared to the previous day with a - 0.34% change. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan with a - 0.28% change. The price in Shandong was 14,878 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan with a 0.09% change. The price in Hebei was 14,873 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan with a 0.02% change. The 3128B index was 14,851 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan with a 0.06% change. The international cotton index: M: CNCottonM was 73.04 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent with a - 0.94% change. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan with a - 0.15% change. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan with a - 0.03% change [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is good, and the overall basis is stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 is CF01 + 900 - 1050, and for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5, it is mostly CF01 + 900 and above [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with new orders being weak. Due to the weakening of seasonal rigid demand, traders and downstream weavers are cautious in purchasing. The price of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to fall yesterday, approaching the October low again, affected by the decline in crude oil and the market's cautious attitude towards the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton lacks upward momentum and is affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and concerns about US cotton exports. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report on November 14. Domestic cotton futures show narrow - range fluctuations. With the end of seed cotton procurement, the market focus returns to supply and demand. Currently, there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices. In the short term, the large - scale listing of new cotton and strong hedging intentions of ginning factories limit the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices support it, which may be more obvious closer to the delivery month. So, it is judged that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a volatile trend [1][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 65.85 cents/lb, high was 66.04 cents/lb, low was 63.52 cents/lb, close was 63.55 cents/lb, down 2.01 cents/lb or 3.07%. Volume was 171,365 lots, an increase of 18,228 lots. Open interest was 130,046 lots, a decrease of 12,147 lots [4] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 13,590 yuan/ton, high was 13,640 yuan/ton, low was 13,455 yuan/ton, close was 13,580 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. Volume was 966,651 lots, an increase of 87,190 lots. Open interest was 576,279 lots, a decrease of 1,862 lots [4] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Open price was 19,855 yuan/ton, high was 19,950 yuan/ton, low was 19,710 yuan/ton, close was 19,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.13%. Volume was 57,764 lots, a decrease of 7,615 lots. Open interest was 25,042 lots, an increase of 1,616 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: It gave back the gains of the past two weeks and fell back to around 63.5 cents/lb, affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and persistent concerns about US cotton exports [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA's weekly export sales data stopped being issued [6] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: Seed cotton listing volume is still less than the same period last year. Cotton fields in many states are affected by rainfall, and the moisture content of recently arrived cotton is high, not meeting the purchase standards of the Cotton Corporation of India. The estimated daily arrival of seed cotton is 69,000 - 93,000 bales, lower than the previous year [7] - Brazil: The area of new - season main - producing areas may decline. The IMEA maintains the cotton production forecast for the state of Mato Grosso in the 2025/26 season at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season, but the planting area is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (a 5.7% decrease). Due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient. The soybean sowing progress is behind that of 2024, and uneven rainfall may affect crop growth and the planting window of second - season cotton [7] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is very limited. The estimated cotton production this year is about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Most factories focus on domestic cotton procurement, and many spinning enterprises choose to wait and see. Domestic yarn demand has not improved, and factories face liquidity problems. Yarn export business is also sluggish [8] - Bangladesh: In October, clothing exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton import trade was moderate this week, and spinning enterprises actively replenished stocks. However, the yarn and textile industries still face problems such as unstable energy supply, weak demand, and narrow profit margins. The upcoming general election may cause turmoil and affect business operations and export orders. The impact of the cargo fire at Dhaka Airport in October is still ongoing [9] - Turkey: Cotton import demand is average. Yarn enterprises are under continuous operating pressure, with some operating rates dropping to 50%. Yarn orders grow slowly, and currently, spinning enterprises generally purchase cotton only according to recent demand. In September, raw cotton imports were more than 53,000 tons, a 32% decrease from August but a 23% increase from the same period last year. Exports from August - September were 21,000 tons, a 26% year - on - year increase [11] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operating Rates: As of the week of November 7, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot Price: It is basically stable, and low - basis transactions are good. There is still pressure on the spot market, and some cotton merchants have lowered the spot basis. The mainstream basis range is stable, but low - basis offers have increased [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of November 7, there were 3,013 registered warehouse receipts and 1,559 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 4,572 receipts, equivalent to 192,024 tons [13] - Downstream Situation: The pure - cotton yarn market is not in a typical off - season. This week, the demand for varieties is clearly differentiated, with the demand for air - jet spun low - count yarn weakening and that for high - tight 40 - count and high - count yarns being okay. Overall, Xinjiang orders are better than those in the inland. Cotton yarn prices fluctuate, and the overall price center changes little. The overall operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory remains stable. The theoretical cash flow of spinning enterprises has improved. The sales atmosphere in the cotton greige fabric market has improved in some areas, shipments have increased, and factory inventories have decreased. Export orders have increased in inquiries, but it is still waiting for order confirmation. The market confidence is still insufficient [14] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises' operating rate (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will be in a volatile trend [19]

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Picking Nears End, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to move sideways due to limited fundamental changes [8]. - The domestic cotton market is likely to oscillate slightly on the stronger side in the short - term. Although there is selling hedging pressure with new cotton hitting the market, the expected increase in production may be lower than previously thought, and the positive outcome of recent Sino - US trade negotiations has been factored into the market [25][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals remain stable, and the market is expected to move sideways. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 732,700 tons, accounting for 23.3% of the estimated annual production, 22% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 80.7% and 78.6% respectively, with the quarterly ratio up slightly. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton market volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Brazil**: The IMEA maintains the 2025/26 cotton production forecast in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season. However, due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient [8]. - **India**: The CAI's assessment of the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to the previous month. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 and 5.61 million tons [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and ending stocks decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton procurement is nearing completion, and prices are stable. The cost of new cotton is fixed, providing support. As of November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. The total number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warrants and effective forecasts was 4,281, equivalent to 171,200 tons of cotton [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 65.4%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week. The spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.20 days. Although some factories increased their procurement of new cotton, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines [25] Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the trading volume PCR was 0.5889. It is recommended to wait and see [39] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts show the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 price difference [45][46]. - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory [51]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts display the basis trends of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contracts [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.11%. The price of the December contract of US cotton also dropped, with a weekly decline of about 1.42%. The price of the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures decreased by about 0.13% [6][14][23]. - In the US cotton - growing areas, limited rainfall is beneficial for harvesting. The release of the monthly supply - demand report next week may guide the market. In the domestic market, the picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The commercial inventory is gradually rising, and the inventory of imported cotton has significantly increased. The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, but new orders are still limited [6]. - Overall, the pressure of new cotton listing is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton - textile exports, which also provides some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the US, limited rainfall in cotton - growing areas is good for harvesting. In China, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang have accelerated, and the commercial inventory is rising. The demand side indicates that the spinning profit has improved slightly, but new orders are limited. The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton and tariff reduction for exports provide support [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton, short - term observation is recommended [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the price change of foreign cotton, demand, and inventory [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.42% [14]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures also declined. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 113,261 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were - 91 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 3,013 sheets, and those of cotton yarn futures were 6 sheets [23][28][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.21 yuan/500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.5 yuan/500 grams. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,520 yuan/ton [42][45][57]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 6, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 14,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week; the quota price was 13,196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 yuan/ton from last week. The profit estimates of imported cotton with sliding - duty and quota were 724 yuan/ton and 1,624 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from last week [61][64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons from the previous month. The in - stock industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year [69][76]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [79]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90% [84][88]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - related Market - **Options Market**: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week, but no specific data is summarized in the text [89]. - **Stock Market**: There is a chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development, but no specific analysis is provided [92].