Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall assessment of cotton investment is complex. The fundamentals are neutral, with different data sources showing varying production, consumption, and inventory figures. The basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October." If the Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 can stand above 14,000, the probability of subsequent volatile upward movement increases; otherwise, if it falls below 14,000, the downward space will open [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and an enhanced expectation for the peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October." Bearish factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. According to USDA's August report, the production in the 2025/26 season is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,334 yuan, and the basis is 1,234 yuan (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in the 2025/26 season to be 8.23 million tons in August [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position increases, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou cotton retraced to the 14,000 mark again during the night session. There are differences between the long and short sides regarding the expectation of the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global production was 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total global consumption was 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. Total global imports were 9.489 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 239,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2%. Total global exports were 9.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3%. The total global ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 747,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; global consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%) year - on - year; the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: In the 2025/26 season, the initial inventory is 8.01 million tons, the sown area is 2.878 million hectares, the harvested area is 2.878 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 2,172 kg, the production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Market Overview - On Monday, the ICE cotton December contract fell by 0.91%, while the overnight cotton 2601 contract rose by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 25, the Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index was reported at 71.91 cents per pound, down 0.70% from the previous day and down 2.24% from the same period last month [2] - The Agriculture Minister of Pakistan, Iftikhar Ali Sahoo, announced that 3.2 million acres of cotton have been planted in Punjab this year, with a production target of 5.5 million bales [2] - According to Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB), as of August 23, the cotton harvesting rate in Brazil was 60.3%, up from 48.9% the previous week, but down from 76.1% in the same period last year and below the five-year average of 77.8% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures noted that the short-term moisture conditions for U.S. cotton continue to improve, which is bearish for the market. However, international cotton prices are considered undervalued, suggesting a buying opportunity on dips. The current pace of cotton inventory depletion and import expectations indicate a tight supply situation before the new cotton is listed. The pre-sale situation for this year's new cotton is favorable, and there is a slight chance of early harvesting in some regions, providing short-term support for the market. Demand is expected to improve with the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking season [3] - In the domestic market, Zhongyuan Futures reported that the new cotton growth is generally normal, with limited impact from recent weather conditions. There are strong expectations for a bumper crop in 2025. Demand showed slight improvement in August, with a minor decrease in cotton yarn inventory among textile enterprises, although overall inventory remains high. The pace of destocking at terminal fabric factories is slower than that of yarn factories. The market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" provide some support for cotton prices, but overall sentiment remains cautious, requiring close attention to the strength of demand recovery [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the weakening US dollar, the price of ICE cotton futures closed higher. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price is firm. Although inland spinning mills have no profit, there are expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season, and the operating rate has slightly increased. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops. Overall, the tight supply of old crops and the expectation of improved demand are expected to boost the short - term cotton trend, while the medium - term trend is suppressed by the increased production of new cotton. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,120 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position is - 54,544 lots, down 6,028 lots; main contract position of cotton is 504,609 lots, up 19,701 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 7,104 lots, down 94 lots. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,165 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the top 20 net position of cotton yarn futures is - 709 lots, down 329 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,276 lots, up 318 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity of cotton yarn is - 8 lots [2]. Spot Market - China's cotton price index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,235 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,506 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) is 14,297 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,931 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,505 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 857 thousand tons, up 7 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110 thousand tons, unchanged; the profit of imported cotton is 946 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 2,189.8 thousand tons, down 640 thousand tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; the monthly output of cloth is 2.7 billion meters, down 0.79 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.065 million tons, up 0.114 million tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 11.08%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 11.11%, up 0.59%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.23%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.74%, up 0.05% [2]. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of August 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 1.7126 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1435 million tons (a decrease of 7.73%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang is 0.9842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1477 million tons (a decrease of 13.05%); the commercial cotton in inland areas is 0.4027 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0162 million tons (a decrease of 3.87%). Last Friday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.79%. On Monday, the 2601 contract of cotton closed up 0.75%, and the 2511 contract of cotton yarn closed up 0.45% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a "Cautious Bullish" rating on the cotton industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Considering the current de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory and the import situation, the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton goes on the market still exists. There is still some short - term support for the market due to the high - production capacity and the possibility of a small - scale pick - up in some areas. However, the expected increase in this year's new cotton production and the possibility of early listing limit the upside space and time. In terms of demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market has started, with the operating rate and orders gradually improving, but the demand performance needs further observation. It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips and consider adjusting the long - short rhythm according to the year - on - year demand situation in September [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Review - **Macro**: China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument will be launched. Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly eased, and the cotton excellent - rate has slightly rebounded. Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is the slowest in the past five years [4] - **Supply**: In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has eased, and Brazil's new cotton harvest progress is slow. Domestically, most of Xinjiang's new cotton has entered the boll - splitting stage, and some may be listed early in early October. The import quota policy has not been introduced, and the import volume in July did not effectively ease the tight inventory [4] - **Inventory**: Domestically, the commercial de - stocking of cotton is still fast and lower than the same period. The downstream terminal products are also slightly de - stocking, with pure - cotton products de - stocking faster than blended products [4] - **Demand**: Domestically, the "Golden September and Silver October" has started, with orders accelerating and the operating rate rising but still lower than the same period. The trading volume in the light - textile market has recovered, but the pure - cotton fabric trading has not recovered well. Externally, the textile and clothing export data in July was under pressure [4] 2. August USDA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The US cotton production and ending inventory in the August USDA supply - demand balance sheet were significantly revised down, which was more bullish than expected. For example, the US cotton production was revised down from 315 (July) to 262.7 (August) [5] 3. Cotton Futures and Spot - The weekly average cotton price and the basis both declined significantly [6] 4. Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The weekly cotton - yarn price declined along with the cotton price [13] 5. Supply - **Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: This week, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 153,500 tons to 1.7126 million tons, lower than the same period. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn, terminal grey fabric, and polyester - cotton yarn in the factory all decreased [16] - **Imported Cotton**: In July, the imported cotton resources increased month - on - month but were still weak year - on - year, with a total of about 150,766 tons [18] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 22, the number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts decreased by 564 to 7,198, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was equivalent to 290,400 tons of cotton [20] 6. Demand - **Operating Rate and Orders**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.3% to 65.8%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.2% to 37%. The spinning mill's orders increased by 3.06 days to 11.42 days. The spinning profit improved [22] - **Light - Textile Market**: The total trading volume in the light - textile market increased, but the cotton - fabric trading volume decreased. The prices of fabric and accessories in the Keqiao market declined [25] - **Retail Sales**: In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles above the designated size increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with a slightly slower growth rate than in June [28] - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports increased by 0.6%. In July, the exports decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month. Exports to the US, ASEAN, and the EU all weakened to varying degrees [30][33] - **PMI**: In July, the cotton - spinning industry PMI decreased by 12% to 35.71%, and sub - indicators such as new orders and operating rate also declined [35] 7. CFTC Positioning Data - The net short positions of non - commercial and fund investors decreased slightly [36] 8. Macro - China's central bank aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and a large - scale policy - based financial instrument will be launched [4]

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Cotton Morning Report - August 25, 2025 - **Report Author**: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Report Source**: Dayue Futures 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 shows signs of starting to rise after a short - term struggle at 14,000. Optimistic expectations may prevail regarding whether the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" will be prosperous. After standing firm at 14,000, the probability of a volatile upward trend increases [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content is provided under this section in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the production in the 25/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. USDA's August report shows production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons in the 25/26 season. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 25/26 season includes production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,243, with a basis of 1213 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 25/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, still considered bullish [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduced previous Sino - US additional tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. There are enhanced expectations for the peak consumption seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The trade negotiation is postponed, and the current export tariffs to the US are relatively high. Overall foreign trade orders are decreasing, and inventory is increasing. A large amount of new cotton is about to be listed [5]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global production is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4][13]. 3.5. Position Data No content is provided under this section in the report.

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The spot basis remains relatively stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, but overall it is still average, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly. The ICE cotton futures are in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For CF2601, the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume was 209,409 lots, a decrease of 31,617 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 759,524 lots, a decrease of 4,507 lots. For CY2511, the closing price was 20,145 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 20,160 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume was 7,879 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,914 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound, a 0.46% decline [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 249 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,292 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,983 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.34 cents/pound, an increase of 0.26 cents/pound (0.35%) from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.10%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The offers of cotton in inland warehouses are relatively numerous, and the spot basis remains relatively stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different sales bases [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, with increased downstream restocking purchases, but overall it is still average. The feedback from textile enterprises varies greatly, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined slightly yesterday. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season, providing support for the ICE cotton futures. The ICE cotton is in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The overall market remains under pressure, and it is recommended to go short after rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply and Demand Balance**: Since the 2021/22 season, due to the impact of the macro - economy and the pandemic, cotton consumption has been frustrated, while production has remained at a relatively high level. The domestic cotton market has shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the price center has moved down. In the 2024/25 season, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to be optimistic, but demand still faces pressure, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose [13]. - **New Cotton Growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the output reached a high in recent years. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and there was a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Currently, the new cotton is growing well, but attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [19]. - **Inventory Situation**: The 2023/24 season had sufficient cotton supply and a high carry - over inventory. At present, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. However, industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still relatively high. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [23][24]. - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 25.0% from the previous month and 82.1% from the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3% [34][43]. Downstream Demand - **Demand Status**: Overseas interest - rate cuts are still uncertain, and the US tariff policy is also uncertain. The domestic policy is boosting the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Although downstream orders for gauze have improved recently, overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and the finished product inventory is high [47]. - **Retail and Export Data**: In July 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 9.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 83.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 2.6766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. From January to July, China's textile and clothing exports were 17.041 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [50]. Global Supply and Demand Situation - **Global Balance**: In the 2024/26 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will also recover significantly, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to decline, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease [71]. - **US Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, the planting area of US cotton increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the output increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the output is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. Last week, US cotton export sales rebounded [72][73]. Spread and Basis - **Spread**: The report shows the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of cotton, and the data changes over time [100]. - **Basis**: The report presents the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09, and the data changes over time [102].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton present a neutral outlook. The 25/26 annual production and consumption data from different institutions show a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. The market is expected to enter the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and if the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can hold above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season of consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions' reports on the 25/26 annual cotton production and consumption data vary. For example, the ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons; the USDA 8 - month report shows a production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. Customs data shows that in July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,234, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1109, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast of the ending inventory in July for the 25/26 annual is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position has decreased. The main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market sentiment is optimistic. If the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can stabilize above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The report provides the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2024/25 (July and August data), as well as the monthly adjustments and year - on - year changes [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 annual, the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is basically flat at 2.56 million tons; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (July forecast), data such as the beginning inventory, sowing area, harvest area, yield per unit area, production, import, consumption, ending inventory, domestic cotton 3128B average price, and Cotlook A index are provided [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Downstream Market Remains Stable, Cotton Prices Fluctuate Slightly Higher [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the US cotton market will fluctuate slightly higher due to a significant reduction in US cotton production and a high good - rate. The Zhengzhou cotton market is also expected to show a similar trend as the trading logic shifts to the demand side, with supply remaining tight and demand expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season [8][23][39] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no obvious macro - changes, the US cotton production is significantly reduced, and the good - rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, so the US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly higher [8] - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 10, the budding rate, boll - setting rate, and flocculation rate of US cotton are slower than last year and the five - year average, but the good - rate is 7 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [8] - **US Cotton Sales**: In the week ending August 7, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 54,900 tons, and 2026/27 contracts were 200 tons. The weekly shipment of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 32,300 tons [8] - **CFTC Position**: As of August 8, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 1,344 to 21,423, and the total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 892 to 43,505, equivalent to 990,000 tons [8] - **Brazil**: As of the week of August 9, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 39%, with a month - on - month increase of 9.3 percentage points and 16.3% slower than last year [8] - **India**: From July 31 to August 13, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 39.4mm, 22mm lower than the normal level and 5mm higher than last year [8] - **Global**: According to the latest August global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global cotton production in August is 25.39 million tons, a month - on - month reduction of 391,000 tons. The consumption is reduced by 30,000 tons to 25.68 million tons, and the ending inventory drops by 742,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of mid - July, China's national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of August 8, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.0067 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,400 tons [23] - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 882,100 tons, and the yarn and grey fabric inventory days were 28.36 days and 37.24 days respectively. As of August 14, the mainstream spinning mills' operating rate was 65.5%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.30% [23] - **Comprehensive View**: After the recent China - US talks, the short - term tariff impact may weaken, and domestic policies have a positive impact on commodities. The supply is tight, and whether to issue sliding - scale duty quotas will be a major factor. Demand is expected to improve, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly higher [23] Option Trading Strategy - The 120 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The PCR of the main contract's open interest was 0.7815, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.5520. It is recommended to sell put options [37] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly higher in the future [41] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [41] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Data on the operating rate of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days are presented in the form of charts [48] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory from 2015 to 2024 are presented in a table [50] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Data on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US upland cotton are presented in the form of charts [53]

Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report (8.11 - 8.15) - Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract reclaiming the 14,000 mark. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak has strengthened market expectations. Unless initial orders are scarce, short - term trends are likely to be strong, though a rise - then - fall scenario is possible [4]. - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. - Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices rebounded, with the 01 contract back above 14,000. The ICAC's August report shows 25/26 annual production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons. The USDA's August report indicates 25/26 annual production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, an 82.1% year - on - year decrease, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 25/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 2. Daily Hints - The USDA's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should be watched for its battle at the 14,000 mark. If it stabilizes above 14,000, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, if it drops below 14,000, the subsequent trend will be weak [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Bullish factors: Reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year. Bearish factors: Postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: For 2024/25, production in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, India decreased by 10.8 tons, Brazil increased by 27.3 tons, etc. Consumption in China decreased by 10.9 tons year - on - year, Pakistan increased by 2.2 tons, etc. [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast**: For 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 5. Position Data - No position data provided in the report