大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8376 | 54 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8586 | | | | 8696 | 8526 | | 320 | 0 | 210 | 0 | 150 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9422 | 126 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9382 | | | | 9422 | 9532 | | -40 | 0 | 0 | ...

棕榈油：美豆油获得支撑，棕榈低多为主 2025 年 9 月 15 日 品 研 究 豆油：美豆收涨，关注中美谈判结果 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,296 | -0.36% | 9,336 | 0.43% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,322 | -0.17% | 8,356 | 0.41% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,857 | -0.36% | 9,894 | 0.38% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,445 | -0.20% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52.12 | 1.01% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 765,320 | 46006 | 428,331 | -10,366 | | | 豆油主力 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental drive is needed to choose a direction. The bond market shows a differentiated trend with the long - end being weak and the short - end being strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation. Silver is in the $40 - 42 range for short - term trading [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as falling apparent demand and coking coal resumption. Iron ore prices are strong, while coking coal and coke prices are weak [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The prices of base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are affected by different factors [2]. - The oil market is worried about marginal supply increments, dragging oil prices down. The chemical products market has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2]. - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends for different varieties [2]. - Special commodities like soda ash, glass, and rubber have different market performances and trading suggestions [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has a rising price due to increasing production cut expectations, and lithium carbonate maintains a tight balance [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: After a large increase, A - shares may enter a high - level shock. Sell near - month put options at support levels to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is at a critical point. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and focus on changes in the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, buy cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money options. For silver, conduct short - term band trading in the $40 - 42 range and sell out - of - the - money options at high volatility [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are suppressed. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and consider an iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Sell coking coal 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170, and the iron ore - coking coal long - short strategy is favorable [2]. - **Coke**: Sell coke 2601 contracts at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650, and the iron ore - coke long - short strategy is favorable [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The futures price is close to the mainstream cost range, and the short - term downward space is limited. The main contract reference range is 79500 - 81500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Alloys**: Aluminum prices are affected by macro - factors and cost support, with different reference ranges for different contracts [2]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, boosting zinc prices. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the tin price is in a high - level shock. The operating range is 285000 - 265000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about marginal supply increments drag oil prices down. Adopt a short - side strategy and pay attention to support levels [2]. - **Urea**: High short - term supply pressure drags down the price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply - demand expectations in September are different, and the prices are in a shock range. For PTA, consider a TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spread strategy [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - fiber, bottle - grade polyester, ethylene glycol, etc. [2] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Different grains and oils are affected by factors such as production expectations and supply - demand contradictions, with different price trends and trading suggestions [2]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply prospects, and cotton has low old - crop inventories, with different trading suggestions [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: The livestock and poultry products market is affected by factors such as supply - demand contradictions and sales rhythms, with different price trends [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: The market lacks a main trading logic and is in a narrow - range shock. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by production lines and spot market sentiment. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Rubber**: The macro - sentiment fades, and rubber prices are in a shock - down trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Due to increasing production cut expectations, the price is rising. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market maintains a tight balance. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and the main contract reference range is 70000 - 72000 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released the palm oil supply and demand data for August 2025, indicating that production and inventory levels are in line with market expectations, leading to a neutral to slightly bearish impact on the market [1][2]. Production and Supply - In August, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.855 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35%, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.05% [2][4]. - The production in different regions showed variability: Peninsular Malaysia's production decreased by 1.82% to 1.107 million tons, while Sabah and Sarawak saw increases of 3.98% and 14.56%, respectively [4][6]. - The average yield of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) increased by 6.54% to 1.63 tons per hectare, with regional yields varying significantly [6]. Exports and Imports - Palm oil exports in August were 1.3247 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.29% month-on-month and a significant year-on-year drop of 13.14% [2][8]. - Imports fell sharply by 19.66% to 49,000 tons, while domestic consumption rose to approximately 491,000 tons, marking a 6.16% increase and the highest level in nearly three years [10][12]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of August, palm oil inventory rose to 2.2025 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.18% and a year-on-year increase of 16.96%, indicating a high level compared to the past five years [2][12]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to continued inventory accumulation and weak export performance, with palm oil prices likely to fluctuate between 9,200 and 9,650 yuan per ton [14]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, there are potential bullish drivers, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supportive external vegetable oil market conditions [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: MPOB report shows inventory growth to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data brings negative pressure. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. Domestically, it will first consider the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil weakens, Dalian palm oil may follow a downward - fluctuating trend [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the US soybean yield forecast, but the high - level of US soybean's excellent rate still maintains the expectation of a good harvest. The upcoming concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. Domestically, although the demand season is coming, the current oversupply of soybeans will keep the basis quotation in a narrow - range adjustment [1]. Meal Products - The high excellent rate of US soybeans suppresses the market's bullish sentiment. The strong supply and weak demand pattern of US soybeans continues. The relatively high Brazilian basis provides support for domestic costs. Recently, the domestic concern about future supply has eased, and the spot is loose. The increase in oil mills' soybean meal inventory and the lack of terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppress the basis. However, the cost support is strong, and the decline space of domestic meal products is limited [3]. Pig Industry - The slaughter of the breeding end is stabilizing, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. The entry of secondary fattening in some areas provides support for the spot. The spot pressure has been gradually realized, and the price has fallen to a low - level range with limited further decline space. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market rebounded today due to the policy boost, but there is still potential for decline later, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn Industry - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are still dull, and the new season's corn has not been listed in large quantities, so the price remains firm. In North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price continues to run weakly. As corn is transitioning to the new season, the tight inventory of old - season corn and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, along with the expected increase in production and the decrease in planting costs, put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short - term, the supply and demand of corn are both weak, and the futures price is under pressure, maintaining a weak pattern in the medium - term [8]. Sugar Industry - The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of August increased year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in a large supply pressure on raw sugar and a price drop below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the tax - included ethanol price, the room for the future increase of the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. The new sugar will be on the market in less than a month, and the pre - sale price is lower than the current market price. The futures price is weak, and the market sentiment is weak. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton Industry - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods of cotton for wadding and spinning are different, and the new cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short - term, the upward and downward space of domestic cotton prices may be limited, and the downstream has little confidence in the traditional peak season. In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Egg Industry - The increase in traders' purchases in recent days may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market will suppress the increase of the egg price. After the second and third batches of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may fade, and the risk of the egg price decline increases. The egg price may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited, maintaining a bearish view [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.15% to 8,570 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 192 yuan [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 1.59% to 9,270 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 34 yuan [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% to 9,910 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI601 decreased by 43 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean oil Y2601 increased by 92 yuan to 308 yuan [1]. - The basis of palm oil P2601 decreased by 116 yuan to - 176 yuan [1]. - The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 40 yuan to 6 yuan, a decrease of 86.96% [1]. - The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 50 yuan to - 700 yuan, an increase of 6.67% [1]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2509 increased by 149 yuan to 1,675 yuan, an increase of 9.76% [1]. Meal Products - **Price Changes**: - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,030 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 9 yuan to 3,066 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,533 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The basis of soybean meal M2601 increased by 9 yuan to - 36 yuan [3]. - The basis of rapeseed meal RM2601 increased by 27 yuan to 97 yuan [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 7 yuan to 268 yuan, a decrease of 2.55% [3]. - The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 14 yuan to 128 yuan, a decrease of 9.86% [3]. - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 400 yuan, a decrease of 2.44% [3]. Pig Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the main contract decreased by 85 yuan to - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.95% [6]. - The spot price in Henan remained unchanged at 13,550 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan to 13,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 879 to 147,686, a decrease of 0.59% [6]. - The weekly white - striped pork price increased by 0.1 yuan to 20.10 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25% [6]. - The self - breeding profit increased by 20.4 yuan to 53 yuan/head, an increase of 63.31% [6]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 17 yuan to 2,197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% [8]. - The FOB price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan to 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% [8]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The basis increased by 7 yuan to 113 yuan, an increase of 6.60% [8]. - The 11 - 3 spread of corn increased by 1 yuan to 11 yuan, an increase of 10.00% [8]. - The long - distance trade profit remained unchanged at 44 yuan [8]. Sugar Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [12]. - The spot price in Kunming increased by 15 yuan to 5,835 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The national cumulative sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 12.03% [12]. - The national cumulative sugar sales increased by 130 million tons to 955 million tons, an increase of 15.76% [12]. - The national industrial inventory decreased by 11.3 million tons to 96.89 million tons, a decrease of 10.44% [12]. Cotton Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 30 yuan to 13,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [13]. - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 43 yuan to 15,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [13]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 million tons to 148.17 million tons, a decrease of 18.6% [13]. - The industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 million tons to 89.23 million tons, a decrease of 3.5% [13]. - The cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 9.86 million tons to 53.46 million tons, an increase of 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract decreased by 63 yuan to 3,020 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 2.04% [15]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 0.03 yuan to 3.44 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.79% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: - The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged at 3.00 yuan/feather [15]. - The culled - hen price decreased by 0.21 yuan to 4.62 yuan/jin, a decrease of 4.35% [15]. - The egg - feed ratio increased by 0.07 to 2.50, an increase of 2.88% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic liquidity in 2025 is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating rotation of sectors and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which have more technology - growth components, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300, which have more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive with less volatility but relatively weaker price elasticity. The stock index has been rising since July and may experience short - term shock consolidation, but the probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend is high [2][11]. - The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend. The current demand is in the off - season, and factors such as the expectation of coke price cuts and the low near - far - month price difference put pressure on the market, but policy expectations and the impact of over - production checks provide support [3][23]. - The palm oil price may be under pressure in the short term due to the lower - than - expected exports of Malaysian palm oil in August [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News Concerns of the Day - **International News**: On September 10, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio. Both sides emphasized the importance of the strategic guidance of the heads - of - state diplomacy, proper management of differences, and exploration of practical cooperation to promote the stable development of Sino - US relations [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The average consumer price from January to August decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [6]. - **Industry News**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed a special rectification action for network chaos in the automotive industry, aiming to strengthen the handling of network chaos such as online water armies, "black public relations", "black mouths", and "fan circles" in the automotive industry [7]. 3.2. Daily Earnings of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 9 and 10, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. For example, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.48% from September 9 to 10, and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.61% [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to have short - term shock consolidation but a high probability of medium - to - long - term upward trend. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures prices continued to fall. With the stabilization of the equity market and the gradual tightening of funds, the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The new regulations on fund redemptions also disturbed the market, and long - term treasury bond futures prices hit new lows and are expected to remain weak [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Eight countries decided to increase the daily crude oil production quota by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels of daily production cuts may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The coastal methanol inventory increased significantly, and the overall device operating load increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main production areas, and the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins are running weakly. The supply has shrunk, and the market pressure has eased. The support from downstream inventory replenishment needs to be monitored [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are in shock consolidation, and soda ash futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the futures prices are weak and approaching the spot prices. Attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are strong. The weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Fed, as well as other factors, support the rise of gold. Gold and silver are expected to be strong when the interest rate cut is approaching [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting output is growing, while the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range. The smelting output is expected to increase, and the short - term supply may be in surplus [21][22]. - **Black Products** - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking futures are in a high - level shock trend, with both pressure and support factors [3][23]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The US soybean has strong support at the bottom, and the domestic raw material supply is expected to be loose [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be under pressure in the short term due to lower - than - expected exports from Malaysia in August [3][25]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be weak, while the domestic sugar price is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is also dragged down by import pressure. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [26]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is waiting for new cotton acquisition and traditional peak - season demand guidance, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is in shock and decline. The spot freight rate of European routes is in the off - season and is expected to continue to decline. The market may be more in a shock state [29].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market continues to show weakness, with lithium carbonate and polysilicon experiencing corrections, while oil prices stabilize due to geopolitical events [1][3] - As of the afternoon close on September 10, the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1446.70 points, down 4.09 points or 0.28% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1998.40 points, down 5.65 points or 0.28% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Industrial silicon futures opened low but rose, closing with a gain of 1.58%, driven by market sentiment despite weak fundamentals [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicated ongoing efforts to regulate irrational competition in key industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which has shown initial results [2] - Industrial silicon remains in a tight balance, with low manufacturer inventories and strong price support, although market sentiment is influenced by related products [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions have led to a rise in oil prices, with SC crude oil main contract closing up 0.58%, while liquefied gas and fuel oil contracts rose over 1% [3] - Despite the rise, OPEC+ production increases are creating oversupply pressures, limiting the extent of price gains [3] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the overall trend in the crude oil market still bearish [3] Group 4 - News of the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine has led to a significant drop in lithium prices, with the main contract falling by 4.87% [4] - The market is shifting focus back to the oversupply situation in lithium carbonate, despite initial bullish sentiment following supply concerns [4] - Analysts suggest that while there are expectations for a strong demand season in the second half of the year, high supply and uncertainties in the fundamentals may lead to continued weak fluctuations in lithium prices [4] Group 5 - Palm oil prices fell over 2%, reaching a one-week low, influenced by a bearish supply-demand report from Malaysia and declining soybean oil prices [5] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 4.18% to 2.2025 million tons, while exports decreased by 19.66%, raising concerns about future supply-demand pressures [5] - Domestic demand for oilseeds may provide some support, but uncertainty remains in the oilseed sector, which is expected to continue fluctuating [5]