1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a "Bullish" rating on the industry [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Italian government has raised the mandatory requirements for renewable fuels and lifted the ban on using palm fatty acid distillates as raw materials, which may affect the palm oil market [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 25 increased compared to the same period in December, with a 10% growth according to ITS data, and Indonesia's palm oil exports in December increased by 52% month - on - month, indicating positive trends in the palm oil export market [2] - The preliminary results of China - Canada talks suggest that China will adjust anti - dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds according to relevant laws and regulations, which may impact the canola oil market [2] - Indian buyers are canceling Brazilian and Argentine soybean oil orders, and the "oil substitute war" is taking place in the Indian market due to the doubling of soybean oil's premium over palm oil [2] - The US 45Z clause is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil and Canadian canola oil, and indirectly benefits the domestic oil market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - 24 - degree palm oil: In Tianjin, the price on January 26, 2026, was 9110, up 100 from January 23; in Zhangjiagang, it was 9030, up 100; in Huangpu, it was 9030, up 100 [1] - First - grade soybean oil: In Tianjin, the price on January 26, 2026, was 8470, up 100 from January 23; in Zhangjiagang, it was 8720, up 100; in Huangpu, it was 8770, up 100 [1] - Fourth - grade canola oil: In Zhangjiagang, the price on January 26, 2026, was 9950, up 200 from January 23; in Wuhan, it was 10000, up 200; in Chengdu, it was 10200, up 200 [1] 3.2 Futures Data - The price difference between the main soybean and palm oil contracts was - 866 on January 26, 2026, down 50 from January 23; the price difference between the main canola and soybean oil contracts was 1119, up 222 [1] - Palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 660 to 0; soybean oil warehouse receipts remained at 26525; canola oil warehouse receipts decreased by 500 to 625 [1] 3.3 Important Information - Italian biofuel regulations and palm oil export data from Malaysia and Indonesia may impact the palm oil market [2] - China - Canada talks on canola seeds, the canola oil trading results of China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation, and the "oil substitute war" in the Indian market affect the canola oil and soybean oil markets [2] - The US 45Z clause has a positive impact on the domestic oil market [2]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic oil and fat futures market continued its strong trend, with all three major oil and fat contracts rising. The expected EPA regulations enhanced the certainty of biodiesel demand, injecting optimism into the global vegetable oil market. Soybean oil futures were boosted by the policy expectations of US soybean oil. Palm oil prices were supported by supply concerns and Indian demand. Rapeseed oil followed the sector's rise, with short - term supply tightness providing price support. It is recommended to view oil and fat futures with a bullish and volatile mindset, expecting short - term upward potential [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: East China rapeseed oil traders quoted 05 + 950 for non - GMO first - grade rapeseed oil in March. Guangdong rapeseed oil traders quoted 05 + 280 for May - July. East China market first - grade soybean oil basis prices varied by period. East China 24 - degree palm oil prices also had different quotes for different months [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat oil and fat futures with a bullish and volatile mindset, expecting short - term upward potential. Pay attention to Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal ship purchases [8]. 3.2 Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased from January 1 - 25, with a 14.81% month - on - month decline according to SPPOMA, including a 15.28% decline in FFB yield and a 0.11% increase in OER. From January 1 - 20, MPOA reported a 14.43% month - on - month decline in production, with different declines in different regions [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and East China fourth - grade soybean oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the spreads of palm oil contracts, and exchange rates of USD to RMB and USD to Ringgit [14][17][23]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statement that he does not rule out the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran has led to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - The upcoming policy to promote service consumption may have an impact on the A - share market. The market is currently in a state of rapid rotation, and the overall risk is controllable. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [17]. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades [20]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to hedge on rallies. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The动力煤 market is expected to have strong price support. The iron ore market is expected to be weak in February [23][25][27][28]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas. The vegetable oil market is affected by various factors, and it is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [29][33]. - The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The zinc price can be considered for buying on dips, with caution in chasing up. The lithium carbonate price is likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, and long - biased strategies can be adopted with attention to risk control [34][40][45]. - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and consumption improvement [49][53]. - Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [54][57]. - The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. Low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. - The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to the intensification of short - squeeze sentiment. It is recommended to shift from low - buying to cautious waiting. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. The caustic soda near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [63][65][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will raise the tariff rate on a variety of South Korean goods to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve and implement the previous trade agreement [10]. - Trump does not completely rule out the possibility of resolving the Iranian issue through diplomacy, leading to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - Investment advice: The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced an increase in the tariff rate on South Korean goods to 25%. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by aircraft orders. The market risk appetite has marginally improved. - Investment advice: During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile and maintain high - level consolidation [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Policies to promote service consumption are即将推出. The A - share market is in a state of rapid rotation, with overall controllable risk. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades. - Investment advice: Short the bonds after the upward momentum fades [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Policies to optimize consumer goods replacement and promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles will be implemented. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to hedge on rallies in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and hedge on rallies [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is fluctuating, with prices rising and falling. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. - Investment advice: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 Panamax steam coal is maintained at $50 - 51 per ton. The price is expected to have strong support in the short term. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to have strong support due to seasonal supply decline and high demand in February [27]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore market of MGX Resources showed a divergence in production and sales in the fourth quarter. The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February [28]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased last week. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas [30]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.97% month - on - month. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [33]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.56 per ton on January 23. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased. The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - South 32's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 increased by 25% quarter - on - quarter, and 29Metals' zinc production in Q4 increased by 72% quarter - on - quarter. The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Buy on dips for unilateral positions, with caution in chasing up. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [40]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders to lithium carbonate futures and options. Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate powder. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy, look for low - buying opportunities after the position volume and volatility stabilize, and pay attention to risk control [45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The roadblock in the Escondida copper mining area in Chile has been lifted. Zangge Mining's subsidiary's copper mine phase - II project was put into operation. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $245 per ton on January 23. The exchange strengthened risk prevention and control. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to supply recovery and consumption improvement [53]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is preparing to resume production. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation [55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Consider low - buying the 05 contract after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene inventory in East China ports increased. The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to short - squeeze sentiment. - Investment advice: Shift from low - buying to cautious waiting for styrene. The far - end expectation game of pure benzene may not end [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased. The PVC export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled on April 1. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. - Investment advice: The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased. The caustic soda market has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips. - Investment advice: The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited. The far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [67].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Galaxy Futures' Grease Daily Report [1][2] - Report date: January 26, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis - **Spot prices and basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on January 26, 2026, were 8226, 9092, and 9345 respectively, with price increases of 132, 182, and 354. The basis for soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin was 540, 480, and 330 respectively; for palm oil in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin was -30, -30, and 130 respectively; for rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi was 800, 850 [2]. - **Monthly spreads**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 88, 42, and 90 respectively, with changes of -6, 4, and 62 [2]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The 05 - contract spreads of Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P were -866, 1119, and 253 respectively, with changes of -50, 222, and 172. The oil - meal ratio was 2.97, with a change of 0.03 [2]. - **Import profits**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -141, and the CNF price was 1095. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was -1420, and the FOB price was 1049 [2]. - **Weekly commercial inventories**: As of the 3rd week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 73.6, 74.6, and 27.5 million tons respectively [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%, with different decreases in different regions [4]. - **Domestic market - Palm oil**: Affected by factors such as possible changes in China - Canada rapeseed trade, palm oil futures prices rose by over 2%. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 74.61 million tons, a 1.37% increase from the previous week. The import profit was inverted, and the basis was stable to weak. It is expected to maintain a high - inventory situation with limited upside space, and the short - term disk will oscillate [4]. - **Domestic market - Soybean oil**: Soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 210.21 million tons, and the startup rate was 57.83%. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 96.33 million tons, a 6.03% decrease from the previous week. The basis was stable. It is expected to have a slight inventory reduction but still maintain an adequate supply, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Domestic market - Rapeseed oil**: Rapeseed oil futures prices rose by over 3%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0 million tons, and the startup rate was 0%. As of January 23, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week. The import profit was inverted. The short - term available spot supply was tight, and the basis was supported. It is expected to continue inventory reduction, and the near - month contract's downside space is limited [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: In the short term, the grease market oscillates with increased volatility and many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt the strategy of buying the March contract and selling the May contract for rapeseed oil when the price difference is low [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 5 - 9 monthly spread, P 5 - 9 monthly spread, OI 5 - 9 monthly spread, Y - P 05 spread, and OI - Y 05 spread [14][15][18][22]

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from Guangfa Futures and cover various industries including oils, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, hog, meal, and egg, dated January 26, 2026 [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For soybean oil, the speculation of favorable US biodiesel policy boosts CBOT soybean oil, but domestic pre - Spring Festival factors limit continuous long positions. Supply is sufficient, and the basis quote may still decline in the short - term [1] - Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short correction. Domestic port inventory decline and pre - Spring Festival stocking expectations support the market [1] - Rapeseed oil maintains a wide - range shock. The 05 contract faces hedging pressure, and the basis quote of reserve rapeseed oil slightly declines [1] Data Summary - Soybean oil: The price of Y2605 on January 23 was 8094 yuan, up 0.12% from the previous day. The basis was 476 yuan, down 7.75% [1] - Palm oil: The price of P2605 on January 23 was 8910 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis increased by 53.85% [1] - Rapeseed oil: The price of OIROS on January 23 was 8991 yuan, down 0.12%. The basis remained unchanged [1] Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US cotton maintains a low - level shock. Domestic cotton consumption is high due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills, and the basis is strong. The expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area provides support. Attention should be paid to the support around 14,500 yuan [2] Data Summary - Cotton 2605 on January 23 was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The main contract's open interest increased by 1.62% [2] - Spot prices such as Xinjiang 3128B increased, and the basis of 3128B - 05 contract increased by 9.36% [2] Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. Thai sugar production is slow. Raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level shock between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level shock this week due to factors such as insufficient peak - season consumption and approaching the end of Spring Festival stocking [3] Data Summary - Sugar 2605 on January 23 was 5180 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 16.43% year - on - year [3] Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market focuses on peak - season consumption. Sellers are actively shipping, and pre - holiday stocking may drive up spot prices. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upside is limited by hedging pressure [4] Data Summary - Jujube 2605 on January 23 was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The open interest decreased by 2.38% [4] Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the arrival of the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the stocking atmosphere in some producing areas has improved. Good - quality apples have firm prices, while poor - quality ones face high inventory pressure. The futures price is expected to be strong due to low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and short - covering [5] Data Summary - Apple 2605 on January 23 was 9535 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% week - on - week [5] Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of corn is relatively tight in the short - term, and pre - holiday stocking demand supports the price. However, continuous policy corn auctions and limited high - price transmission restrict the upside. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release intensity [7] Data Summary - Corn 2603 on January 23 was 2300 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The open interest increased by 2.33% [7] Group 8: Hog Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Spot prices are strengthening again, but the supply pressure will increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock as the main focus is on the post - holiday off - season [10] Data Summary - The main hog contract on January 23 was 1685 yuan, up 5.31%. The slaughter volume increased by 1.79% [10] Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans are expected to be strong due to macro factors and biodiesel policy. Domestic supply is abundant, but the first - quarter arrival expectation is low, and the meal price is expected to be in a shock range [13] Data Summary - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal on January 23 was 3080 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 increased by 5.45% [13] Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Egg production is stable and sufficient. The demand may weaken as the Spring Festival stocking nears the end and group purchases decrease. Attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price eggs [14] Data Summary - The egg 03 contract on January 23 was 3046 yuan/500KG, down 1.58%. The basis increased by 26.72% [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the technical adjustment of non - ferrous related varieties last week, there are signs of a rebound, and silver has reached a new high. The underlying logic is the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new economy, new energy, and AI economy, and there may be a risk of short - squeeze as the market progresses. The anti - involution logic of low - valued varieties is gradually advancing. Recently, chemical varieties have shown signs of a rebound and increased trading activity, which is worthy of attention. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti - involution will be an inevitable theme in 2026 [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - long Market Viewpoint Summary - The strength - weakness structure of the commodity market in the past week remains unchanged, with non - ferrous metals and precious metals remaining strong. Chemical varieties have also shown strong performance recently. After a recent technical adjustment, non - ferrous commodities are strengthening again, and the upward trend continues [4]. - Gold and silver have broken through new highs after a short - term technical adjustment, and there are no signs of a trend reversal from the technical form [4]. - In the context of the easing of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil has weakened, but soybean oil and palm oil are unaffected. The overall downside space for oils and fats is very limited, and they can be used as long - position allocations [4]. - The chemical sector will generally operate within the anti - involution framework in 2026. The national policy emphasizes the supply - demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products has reached an extreme level [4]. - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The coal supply - guarantee market is nearing its end. Recently, chemical varieties are showing signs of an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow is 34.115 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals have a capital inflow of 5.764 billion yuan, non - ferrous metals 3.479 billion yuan, black metals - 0.594 billion yuan, energy 0.274 billion yuan, chemicals 4.047 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.478 billion yuan, oils and fats 2.118 billion yuan, and soft commodities 0.259 billion yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, gold, silver, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 21.8%, and the inventory percentile is 100% [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It details price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for energy and chemical products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For example, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.5%, and the inventory percentile is 44.1% [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It provides price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 9.9%, and the inventory percentile is 91.9% [12].

1. Report Information - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil and fat futures market continued its relatively strong trend, with all three major oil and fat contracts rising. The expected EPA regulations on bio - diesel and the Indonesian plantation confiscation action, along with supply - demand factors, influenced the market. It's advisable to view the oil and fat futures with a bullish - in - oscillation mindset and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil while shorting rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China market, the quotes for rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and the quotes of palm oil in Dongguan were provided, including the basis prices and different delivery months [7] - **Market Analysis**: The soybean oil futures were driven by the expected US bio - diesel policy. Palm oil prices were supported by concerns over supply tightening in Indonesia and Indian demand. Rapeseed oil followed the sector's rise with short - term tight supply and active far - month basis pre - sales. It's recommended to view the market with a bullish - in - oscillation mindset and consider the arbitrage strategy of long soybean oil and palm oil, short rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Palm Oil Exports**: SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period in December, with a significant drop in exports to China. ITS data indicated a 11.4% increase in exports during the same period [9] - **Palm Oil Production**: From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, with a 16.49% drop in FFB yield and a 0.08% increase in OER [10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Price Forecast**: MPOC expected the crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 4,000 and 4,300 Malaysian ringgit per ton in February [15] - **Policy Expectation**: The market expected the EPA to soon issue final regulations on biofuels, which were expected to have a positive impact on the demand for biodiesel raw materials [15]

油脂日报 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 22 日 研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | 2026/1/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8084 | 40 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8584 | | | | 8644 | 8474 | | 560 | 0 | 500 | -20 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8944 | 112 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8914 | | | | 8924 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and offers trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as geopolitical events, seasonal patterns, and policy changes. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index shows differentiation and resilience. Although the ETF trading volume of broad - based indexes is abnormal, it does not affect market activity. The CSI 500 index is relatively strong, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate. [20][21] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term grid operation for single - side trading; IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; double - selling strategy for options. [22] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply - side pressure is high, and the market rebounds slightly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading, expand the MRM spread in arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [24][25] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term but with limited downward space. It is advisable to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [28][29] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The US biofuel policy is expected to boost the market. Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to use high - selling and low - buying interval operations for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [31][32] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic corn spot is stable in the short term but under pressure in the long term. For single - side trading, a bullish view on the US 03 corn after stabilization and short - selling on the domestic 03 corn at high prices; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch and conduct a 35 - starch reverse spread. [33][34][35] - **Hogs**: Supply pressure increases, and the spot price continues to decline. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options. [36][37][38] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the market oscillates at the bottom. For single - side trading, go long on the 05 contract at low prices; for options, sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [39][40] - **Eggs**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price rises, but the upward space of the 03 contract is limited. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month far - month contract for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [43][44][45] - **Apples**: The pre - festival sales are good, and the price is firm. For single - side trading, go long on the May contract at low prices and short - sell the October contract at high prices; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short - sell the October contract. [47][48][49] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate in the range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [51][52] Black Metals - **Steel**: Demand is marginally weakening, and steel prices continue to oscillate. For single - side trading, the steel price stabilizes in the short term and oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, short - sell the coil - coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short - selling of the coil - screw spread. [54][55] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals are lackluster, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and partially take profit on the previous strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options for options. [56][57] - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and ore prices are running weakly. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [59][60][61] - **Ferroalloys**: After adjustment, the bottom support is strong. For single - side trading, consider ferroalloys as long - position options when the price is low; for options, sell put options at high prices. [62][63] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Due to the turning of risk events, gold and silver prices retreat. For single - side trading, short - term investors in Shanghai gold can take profit at high prices, and long - term investors can hold with the 5 - day moving average as support; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options for Shanghai gold and take profit at high prices. [65][66][67] - **Platinum and Palladium**: TACO pushes up the US dollar index, and precious metal prices are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [68][69] - **Copper**: The upward momentum weakens, and copper prices consolidate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [71][72][73] - **Alumina**: It mainly oscillates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading activity after the price continues to fall. [77] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and aluminum prices oscillate and stabilize. For single - side trading, it is expected to be strong in the medium term; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [79][80] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. For single - side trading, it oscillates and stabilizes; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [81] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to changes in domestic social inventories. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [83][84][85] - **Lead**: Pay attention to capital sentiment. For single - side trading, go long lightly at low prices near the 17000 - 17200 support level; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [88][89] - **Nickel**: Optimistic sentiment remains, and nickel prices consolidate at a high level. For single - side trading, take a long - position view with a low - buying strategy; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [92] - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are tight, and prices are firm. For single - side trading, take a long - position view with a low - buying strategy; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. [95][96] - **Industrial Silicon**: Production - cut news is spreading, but coking coal drags down the market. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [96][97] - **Polysilicon**: Spot trading is at a standstill. Pay attention to the meeting this week. It is recommended to wait and see. [98][99] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is running at a high level. Be cautious in operation. For single - side trading, buy at low prices; it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [101][102][104] - **Tin**: Pay attention to capital conditions. For single - side trading, go long after the callback stabilizes; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options. [106][107][108] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Spot freight rates continue to decline, and the geopolitical situation has escalated. For single - side trading, wait and see due to many short - term disturbances; for arbitrage, hold the 6 - 10 positive spread. [109][110] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Cold snaps in Europe and the US drive up oil prices. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [112] - **Asphalt**: Demand is declining, and geopolitics is still the main driver. For single - side trading, the main 03 contract oscillates strongly; for arbitrage, pay attention to the BU4 - 6 positive spread. [114][115][116] - **Fuel Oil**: The cost oscillates. Pay attention to the supply rhythm of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils. For single - side trading, it oscillates strongly, and beware of geopolitical risks; for arbitrage, pay attention to the FU59 positive spread. [117][118] - **LPG**: Propane still has support. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [119][120] - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM is strong in the short term, and HH is in a short - squeeze situation. For single - side trading, hold the short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts and consider adding positions for aggressive investors; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options of TTF or JKM. [122][123][125] - **PX&PTA**: Polyester production cuts are increasing. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - **BZ&EB**: The transaction of South Korean pure benzene to the US Gulf is good, and the supply of styrene decreases due to accidental plant shutdowns. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. For options, sell put options. [128][129][130] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious, and the price is falling weakly. For single - side trading, it is expected to oscillate weakly; for options, sell call options. [131][133] - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand is weakening. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [134][135] - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance accelerates in late January. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [136][138] - **Propylene**: Supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [140][141][142] - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions. For single - side trading, hold long positions in the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts. [144][145] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weakening. It is expected to have a weak trend. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [146][147][148] - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [149][150] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time. It is expected to have a weak trend. [151][152][153] - **Glass**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to short - sell at an appropriate time before the Spring Festival. [155][156] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical tensions ease, and it oscillates narrowly. For single - side trading, short - sell in the short term; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 positive spread; for options, sell put options on the callback. [161][162] - **Urea**: It oscillates. It is recommended to operate cautiously. [163][164] - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates weakly. Hold short positions. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options. [166][167][169] - **Logs**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong. For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy a small amount near the low point of last month; for arbitrage, close the LG03 - 05 reverse spread and switch to a positive spread. [170][171] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Inventory is high, and the rebound of cultural paper is weak. For options, sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option. [173][174] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The import volume of Indian - standard rubber decreases significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options. [175][177] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Domestic automobile inventory accumulates both monthly and yearly. For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, hold the BR2605 - RU2605 spread with a stop - loss at - 4000. [179][180]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 21 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | 2026/1/21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | 各品种地区现货价 | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8044 | 12 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8564 | | | | 8604 | 8434 | 560 | | -10 520 | 0 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8832 | 84 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8802 | | | | 8822 | 8962 | -30 | | 0 ...