1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the short term, the supply of coking coal and coke increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon remains loose, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the closing prices of most futures and spot varieties in the black industry chain changed. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased from 3103 to 3037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%; the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3285 to 3204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. However, the J2601 contract of coke increased from 1666.5 to 1676 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. The steel products market oscillated and declined last week, and the downstream weakness improved limitedly. The Sino - US trade friction affected market sentiment, and important domestic meetings and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are worth noting [9]. - **Viewpoint**: Low - level operation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The macro - level meeting is expected to focus on new - quality productivity and consumption. The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly, the arrival volume will return to the median level, the domestic demand decreased but remained high, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke first declined and then rose last week, affected by Sino - US trade policies and anti - involution expectations. The spot market was stable and slightly strong, and some coke enterprises planned a second price increase. The coal mine output increased, the imported coal volume increased monthly, the coke enterprise profit contracted, and the steel mill profit was in deficit [11]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas, the US government shutdown affected economic data and Fed policy decisions. Domestically, the demand improvement expectation was weak. The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon was relatively loose, the demand decreased, the inventory increased, and the cost support was stable [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 201.16 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 tons; the apparent demand was 219.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.74 tons. The total inventory was 641.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.59 tons [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 321.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons; the apparent demand was 315.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.58 tons. The total inventory was 419.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.29 tons [24][29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import ore port inventory (45 ports) last week was 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons [41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises last week was 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons [48]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment last week was 3207.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 891.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84 tons [74]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2599.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87.92 tons [82]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port last week was 33.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan [106]. - **Output**: The silicon - manganese output of 187 independent enterprises last week was 208810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4585 tons [110]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon - manganese of five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 960 tons [114]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises on October 17 was 262500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20000 tons [117].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel (rebar and wire rod): Volatile [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Decline [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level operation [4] - Silver: High - level operation [4] - Logs: Range - bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile with a bearish bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile with a bearish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile with a bearish bias [6][7] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Volatile with a slightly bullish bias [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Volatile [7][9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Volatile with a bearish bias [9] Core Views - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, but short - term price support exists due to potential macro - sentiment improvement. The market should closely monitor four main lines for potential price re - pricing [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns. The core contradiction lies in the low profit of steel mills [2]. - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to continue volatile adjustment. The fourth - plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to have limited short - term impact [2]. - The glass market has no significant improvement in the short - term supply - demand pattern, and it is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand repair and capacity policies [2]. - The stock index market has seen a significant decline, and it is recommended to reduce risk appetite and lower long - positions in stock index futures [4]. - The Treasury bond market shows a slight upward trend, and it is suggested to hold long - positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The gold market is expected to operate at a high level, with its pricing mechanism shifting and influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate policies [4]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound, with stable spot prices and cost - side support [6]. - The pulp market is expected to be at the bottom, with cost support weakening and demand improvement yet to be verified [6]. - The offset paper market is expected to be volatile, with stable supply and potential demand improvement [6]. - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range volatility, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [6]. - The meal market is expected to be volatile with a bearish bias, due to increased supply and weakening post - festival demand [6]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with sufficient supply and fluctuating demand [7]. - The rubber market is expected to be in wide - range volatility, affected by weather, production, and demand factors [7]. - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends and wait - and - see or volatile - bearish outlooks [7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is hard to reverse. Trade friction may cause price drops, but short - term support exists due to macro - factors. Four main lines should be monitored [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Macro - policy expectations are high, and supply concerns have emerged after a coal mine accident. The core problem is the low profit of steel mills [2]. - **Rolled steel (rebar and wire rod)**: Supply pressure is relatively large, and demand recovery in October needs attention. The market is expected to continue volatile adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is not improved, with inventory accumulation. It is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to policies [2]. - **Soda ash**: Similar to glass, it is expected to be adjusted, and the marginal improvement in the peak season should be noted [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has declined significantly. It is recommended to reduce risk and lower long - positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market shows a slight upward trend, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: They are expected to operate at high levels, influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest - rate policies [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: Spot prices are stable, with cost support. It is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Pulp**: Cost support weakens, and demand improvement is yet to be verified. It is expected to be at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand may improve. It is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Oils and fats**: They are expected to continue wide - range volatility, affected by inventory, production, and demand [6]. - **Meals**: They are expected to be volatile with a bearish bias, due to increased supply and weakening post - festival demand [6]. - **Live pigs**: Supply is sufficient, and demand may decline. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Production is affected by weather, and demand is weak in the short - term. It is expected to be in wide - range volatility [7]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: They are affected by oil prices, supply - demand, and cost, with different trends and wait - and - see or volatile - bearish outlooks [7][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak volatility [2] - Rolled steel: Weak volatility [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Volatility [2] - CSI 300: Volatility [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong volatility [4] - Silver: Strong volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish volatility [6] - Live pigs: Weak volatility [8] - Rubber: Volatility [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Volatility [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side uncertainties, with weak unilateral drivers for iron ore and varying trends for other products [2] - The financial market shows mixed trends in stock indexes and bonds, with gold and silver expected to be strong due to various factors [4] - The light industry products have different price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors, such as logs with increased volatility and pulp in consolidation [6] - The agricultural products face challenges in supply and demand, with livestock products like live pigs having a weak short-term outlook and rubber showing volatility [8] - The polyester industry has complex supply-demand relationships, with different products having different investment ratings and price trends [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply concerns arise from pricing disputes and accidents, with short-term focus on steel demand and potential negative feedback [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors influence the market, with coke's first-round price increase implemented and second-round likely to fail [2] - Rolled steel: Static valuation is low, supply pressure is significant, and demand recovery in October is crucial, with high inventory and weak demand putting pressure on prices [2] - Glass: Supply and demand show no significant improvement, with inventory accumulation and weak demand due to the real estate downturn, and potential policy impact on the future [2] Financial Market - Stock indexes: Most indexes show negative trends, with market sentiment affected by trade and economic data, and investors advised to control risk [4] - Bonds: Treasury bond yields show slight fluctuations, with the central bank's open market operations affecting liquidity, and long-term bonds showing a slight upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to be strong due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is expected to increase after the holiday, with demand gradually recovering, and prices likely to be more volatile [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, demand improvement is uncertain, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Production is stable, demand may improve with new tenders, but price profit is low, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, demand is weak after the holiday, and prices are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations, with attention on production and sales in relevant regions [6] - Meal products: Supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and prices are expected to be bearish, with attention on soybean planting and imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with a possible widening of the price difference between fat and lean pigs [8] - Rubber: Supply pressure varies by region, demand shows some improvement, and inventory is decreasing, with prices likely to fluctuate widely [8] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply increases and demand decreases, with prices following oil price fluctuations and PXN spreads under pressure [9] - PTA: Cost support may weaken, supply and demand improve marginally, and prices follow cost fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, with expected medium-term oversupply, and short-term cost fluctuations affecting prices [9] - PR: The market is sluggish with no strong support from raw materials and supply-demand, and attention is on factory sales and downstream follow-up [9] - PF: Downstream demand is stable, external negative sentiment eases, and prices are expected to stabilize [9]

Report Date - The report is dated October 13, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Steel - The current overseas macro - environment is under pressure. Whether the Sino - US trade negotiation can ease will be the core factor affecting asset prices. The overall situation is bearish, and asset prices may face pressure. With the weakening of steel fundamentals and the weakening support of iron ore, steel prices are more likely to decline. Short - term macro - level changes will have a higher impact than fundamental changes, and market volatility may increase [3] Iron Ore - In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are under marginal pressure. Shipments are high, inventory is accumulating seasonally, downstream hot metal has support, but steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and profits are declining. The price is expected to rise first and then fall, still oscillating within a range [22] Coal and Coke - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of downstream finished products has deteriorated, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, and the second round of coke price increase is difficult. In the medium - to - long term, under the policy constraints of "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection", the supply elasticity of coking coal in the fourth quarter is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which will support coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of the downstream steel can achieve a "soft landing" [34] Ferroalloys - There is a contradiction between high supply and weak demand in ferroalloys. The production of ferrosilicon remains high, while the production of silicomanganese has declined for many weeks. The cost support is challenged due to the continuous decline of coking coal prices [53] Soda Ash - Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. The second - phase of Yuanxing has been ignited and is in the commissioning stage, and the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The inventory of upstream alkali plants is starting to accumulate. The overall high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches restricts the price of soda ash, but there is limited downward space due to cost support [64] Glass - The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe may be postponed to November. Glass production and sales are average, and the upstream inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Some glass production lines still have the intention to ignite. The high inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price increase [89] Summary by Directory Steel Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3083, 3139, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3261, 3274, and 3437 yuan/ton respectively [4] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3237 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton [8] Basis and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 137 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 59 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 182 yuan/ton [8][14] Iron Ore Futures Prices - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 804.5, 781, and 759 yuan/ton respectively [23] Fundamental Data - As of October 10, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 241.54 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 14024.5 tons, and the global iron ore shipment volume was 3207.5 tons [28] Coal and Coke Futures Prices and Basis - On October 13, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main coking coal basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 38.5 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1583 yuan/ton, and the main coke basis (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was - 83.1 yuan/ton [39] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1530 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [40] Ferroalloys Ferrosilicon - On October 13, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5230 yuan/ton [54] Silicomanganese - On October 13, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270 yuan/ton, and the silicomanganese spot price in Ningxia was 5600 yuan/ton [56] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1336, 1406, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 70 yuan/ton [65] Spot Prices - On October 13, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [68] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On October 13, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1313, 1392, and 1179 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton [89] Production and Sales - On October 10, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 61%, in Hubei was 82%, in East China was 82%, and in South China was 100% [90]

Report Date - The report is dated October 10, 2025 [1] Steel Industry Core View - Yesterday's upward movement in the steel futures market was a rebound driven by events and macro - optimistic sentiment, lacking fundamental support. With the core supply - demand contradiction unresolved, upward resistance is significant, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, but the impact of favorable macro - policies should be watched [3] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up from 3096 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3285 yuan/ton, down slightly from 3286 yuan/ton on October 9 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The aggregated rebar price in China on October 10 was 3262 yuan/ton, up from 3257 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai remained at 3350 yuan/ton [7][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 56 yuan/ton, up from - 63 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month spread remained at - 7 yuan/ton [4] Iron Ore Industry Core View - With the seasonal recovery of terminal demand, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and continuous supply - side disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to show an "easily rising and hard - falling" trend in the short term [19] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 795 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [20] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Rizhao PB powder on October 10 was 789 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [20] Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on October 10 was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 327 tons, down 9.4 tons from the previous week [23] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Core View - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies. The winter storage this year is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coking coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel [29] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: The coking coal 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 98 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the coke 01 - 05 month spread was - 152.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [33] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal on October 10 was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34] Ferroalloy Industry Core View - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five - year historical period, while demand has not improved significantly during the peak season. There is a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Cost factors and capital outflows also affect prices [43] Price Data - **Silicon Iron**: On October 10, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from the previous day [44] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on October 10 was 270 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day [48] Soda Ash Industry Core View - Market sentiment fluctuations increase soda ash price volatility. With the second - phase ignition of Yuanxing, future supply pressure persists. The supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, although exports have alleviated some domestic pressure [57] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1332 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day [58] - **Spot Prices**: The heavy - soda market price in North China on October 10 was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61] Glass Industry Core View - High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and weak real - world demand limit glass prices. The supply - demand pattern in the near - term is one of strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and inventory factors [85] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day [86] - **Spot Prices**: The basis of the glass 05 contract in Shahe on October 10 was - 99 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan from the previous day [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market faces significant destocking pressure due to high supply and insufficient demand, and the futures market may be under pressure [3]. - The iron ore market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals, with short - term prices likely to rise due to demand recovery and supply disruptions [20]. - The coking coal and coke prices may be supported in the short term, but their rebound height depends on the downstream steel market's supply - demand balance [32]. - The ferroalloy market has a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand, and the price increase is restricted [45]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high - level inventory restricting the price [55]. - The glass market has a pattern of strong near - term supply and weak demand, and the price is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [82]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - During the holiday, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was weak, inventory accumulated faster than usual, and the inventory - to - sales ratio reached the highest level in recent years. The hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation was significant. The steel market has a large destocking pressure [3]. - Long - process steel mills still have some profit margins and lack the motivation to cut production voluntarily, while the demand has not improved significantly. The contradiction between high supply and insufficient demand is prominent, and the pressure of negative - feedback production cuts is gradually accumulating [3]. - After the holiday, the raw material replenishment motivation is expected to be weak due to insufficient steel demand [3]. - The prices and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures on October 9, 2025, are presented in detail, showing price changes compared to September 30, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - During the holiday, the iron ore market was stable, with shipments above 30 million tons, and the demand side saw steel mills replenishing stocks as needed. Terminal demand recovered seasonally, and inventory decreased, with the fundamentals improving marginally [20]. - Short - term disturbances may come from the supply side, such as China's request to suspend the purchase of BHP's seaborne cargoes and the accident at Simandou that may delay production [20]. - The price data of iron ore futures contracts on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30 and September 24, 2025 [21]. - The fundamental data of iron ore, including daily average pig iron production, port desilting volume, and inventory, show weekly and monthly changes [26]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which may support prices [32]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coking coal and coke prices depend on the downstream steel market's supply - demand balance [32]. - The price data of coking coal and coke futures and spot on October 9, 2025, are presented, including basis, spreads, and profits [35][36]. Ferroalloy - The ferroalloy supply is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, while the demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, resulting in a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand [45]. - The electricity price in Ningxia has increased, forming a cost - bottom expectation for silicon iron. However, the funds are withdrawing from the market, which restricts price increases [45]. - The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese on October 9, 2025, are provided, including basis, spreads, and spot prices [46][48]. Soda Ash - Market sentiment is volatile, increasing the price volatility of soda ash. The second - phase ignition of Yuanxing has started the trial operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [55]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the alkali plants' high - level inventory has been somewhat relieved [55]. - The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the high - level inventory restricts the price [55]. - The price and spread data of soda ash futures on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30, 2025 [56]. Glass - The glass market has high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream, and weak demand restricts the price. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [82]. - The near - term supply is strong and demand is weak, and the mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei is high, with weak phased replenishment ability [82]. - The price and spread data of glass futures on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30, 2025 [83]. - The daily sales data of glass in different regions from October 2 to 8, 2025, are presented [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **成材**: Short - term outlook is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but the upside is limited. The trading logic is mainly based on industry fundamentals, with the price of finished steel showing signs of recovery, yet the weak downstream demand may constrain the price rebound [9]. - **煤焦**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory before the National Day holiday, which supports the confidence in price support. The futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **铁合金**: Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon continue to face a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with pressure on inventory. However, the short - term restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support prices. It is expected that prices will be in a weak consolidation state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most black commodity futures and spot prices increased. For example, the futures price of coke J2601 rose from 1625.5 to 1738.5, a 6.95% increase, and the spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke increased from 1390 to 1500, a 7.91% increase [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast - **成材** - **Logic**: The blast furnace utilization rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, while the average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. The finished steel rebounded last week, but the weak downstream situation remains unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set an average annual growth target of about 4% for the steel industry in the next two years [9]. - **View**: Short - term oscillation with a slight upward bias. - **Future Focus**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand. - **煤焦** - **Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp last week, and the futures price of coal and coke oscillated with an upward bias. On the spot side, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise prices. The environmental protection policy in Tangshan affected market sentiment, but the overall rigid demand for raw materials remained strong [10]. - **View**: Short - term supply and demand both increase, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - **Future Focus**: The resumption process of coal, coke, and steel production and changes in imported coal clearance. - **铁合金** - **Logic**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp. Domestically, the market has entered the traditional peak season, but demand is still weaker than expected. On the supply side, the output and operating rate of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while those of ferrosilicon remained stable. On the demand side, the weekly demand for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel types decreased for three consecutive weeks. On the inventory side, silicon manganese inventory increased significantly, while ferrosilicon inventory decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon has certain support [11]. - **View**: Prices are expected to be in a weak consolidation state. - **Future Focus**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions. 03. Variety Data - **成材** - **螺纹钢**: Last week, the output was 206.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 tons; the apparent demand was 210.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.96 tons. The total inventory was 650.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 tons [13][20]. - **热轧**: Last week, the output was 326.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the apparent demand was 321.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 tons. The total inventory was 377.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.67 tons [24][29]. - **基差**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and delivery months showed different changes, such as the 1 - month basis of rebar in Shanghai being 88 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [32]. - **煤焦** - **焦炭**: The total inventory last week was 915.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.99 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 66.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons [47]. - **焦煤**: The total inventory last week was 2550.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.68 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 940.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.9 tons [55]. - **Other Data**: Data such as the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, inventory availability days, and the ratio of coke to coking coal prices also showed corresponding changes [63][67]. - **铁合金** - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon all increased last week. For example, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia (6517) increased from 5650 to 5730 yuan/ton [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased significantly, while the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased [81][92]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while the output of ferrosilicon remained stable. The demand for both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon decreased for three consecutive weeks [83][89]. - **Import and Production**: In July, the import of manganese ore was 274.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%. In August, the production of silicon manganese was 90.93 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94% [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day, with limited upward and downward space. The upper limit is restricted by demand and the lack of substantial reduction in supply, while the lower limit is supported by macro - expectations and restocking [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move sideways. The downward space is limited by restocking and high hot - metal production, but the upward space is constrained by demand and high shipping volumes, resulting in a weak price trend [21]. - For coal and coke, downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and coke's second - round price cut has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The trading logic for the long - term is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - The supply pressure of soda ash in the long - run remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3380 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable compared to September 19 [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on September 22 was 3323 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 95 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore and 01 rebar/01 coke were both stable at 4 and 2 respectively from September 19 to September 22 [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the 01 iron ore contract was 808.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1 yuan. The basis of the 01 contract was - 8.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of September 19, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08 tons, and the global shipping volume was 3324.8 tons [28]. Coal and Coke - **Market Outlook**: Downstream restocking has improved the inventory structure of coking coal, and the second - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented. However, the high supply pressure of steel will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices [35]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1144 yuan/ton, and the coking coal main - contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was - 74.0 yuan/ton [39]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, which is beneficial for short - term price increases. The long - term trading logic is based on the anti - involution expectation, and the downward space is limited [51]. - **Data for Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: For ferrosilicon on September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 36 yuan, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5480 yuan/ton. For ferromanganese on September 19, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 116 yuan, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5730 yuan/ton [51][55]. Soda Ash - **Market Outlook**: The long - term supply of soda ash remains high. Although the export in August was better than expected, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [63]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1384 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 23 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.63% [64]. Glass - **Market Outlook**: Glass prices lack a clear trend. The high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit the price, while the supply in the fourth quarter may have unexpected reductions [90]. - **Price Data**: On September 22, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1329 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 14 yuan and a daily decline rate of 1.04% [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]