Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is overall strong with cost support, but domestic demand is weak and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Iron ore follows the strong trend of the black - series, but the price is high and there is a risk of increased volatility [2]. - Coke and coking coal may maintain an upward trend in the short - term, and the impact of "anti - involution" needs policy attention [3][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon follow the thread trend, with relatively small price increases [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production dropped, and inventory increased slightly. High iron - water production and low inventory support steel prices. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are at a relatively high level. The market is optimistic, and the short - term trend is dominated by "anti - involution" [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated. Global shipments are slightly stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals have declined from high levels. Port inventories are stable. In the demand side, the terminal is in the off - season, but steel mills have profits and high iron - water production supports high - level ore handling. The market sentiment has improved, but the price is high [2]. Coke - The coke price rose and then fell. The third round of price increases by coking plants is underway. Coking profits are meager, and daily production has slightly increased. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, and the short - term trend is upward [3]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit. Affected by policy documents, the price has risen significantly. Coal production has decreased slightly, the spot auction market has improved, and terminal inventory has increased. Total inventory has decreased, and short - term destocking is likely to continue. The short - term trend is upward [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rose and then fell. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, and weekly production recovery is slow. Manganese ore inventory is increasing, which suppresses prices. In the short - term, the inventory is low, and the price is rising slightly following the thread [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fell at the end of the session. Iron - water production has increased, export demand is stable, and secondary demand has declined marginally. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased. It follows the thread trend with relatively weak price increases [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are fluctuating with a slight upward trend. The glass and soda ash markets have stable spot sales, but their futures opened high and closed low. The double - silicon market has firm spot prices and is operating steadily [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is basically stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, with significant de - stocking pressure. In the long run, supply and demand are still relatively loose [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures also opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream transactions are stable, with a wait - and - see attitude. Supply has both复产 and maintenance, with output remaining stable month - on - month. In the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to stay low. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, demand is expected to weaken further, and there is great annual inventory pressure [1]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market trading atmosphere is active, and the overall price is firm. The 6517 grade in the northern market is priced at 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton. Production is stable, and demand has resilience due to the recovery of hot metal production. However, high - level inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices. The Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered, and prices fluctuate with the sector [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures fluctuated with a slight upward trend yesterday. The market sentiment is good, and the rising futures drive up the spot price. The 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is priced at 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Production has increased month - on - month, while demand has slightly decreased. Inventories are at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the rising coal price boosts the valuation. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 4: Strategies Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight downward trend [2]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: ★☆☆ for rebar, ★☆★ for hot-rolled coil [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall situation of the black metal market is complex, with different trends in each sub - sector. The "anti - involution" concept dominates the market, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and macro - level expectations. Attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Rebar: In the off - season, demand is weak, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. Hot - rolled coil demand has resilience, production continues to fall, and inventory drops slightly. Iron - water production rises and remains high, and the market's negative feedback pressure is low under the low - inventory pattern. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. The market is affected by "anti - involution" and shows volatile fluctuations. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The supply side has increased global shipments compared to the previous period and is stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals have declined from a high level, and port inventories are stable with no obvious short - term inventory accumulation pressure. The demand side has high iron - water production in the short term as steel mills have high profit ratios and low motivation for active production cuts. The market sentiment is improved by macro - level factors, but the current price is high, and there is a risk of increased price fluctuations [3] Coke - The price is volatile during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water level remains high in the off - season. The "anti - involution" has limited impact, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [4] Coking Coal - The price hit the daily limit at the end of the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, and the transaction price has continued to rise. The terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month. The production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly, and inventory reduction is likely to continue in the short term. The "anti - involution" impact is gradually emerging, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has declined during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, and the weekly production recovery rate is slow. The spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price. Affected by "anti - involution", the market has increased expectations for demand - side policies, and the price follows the rebar trend with a relatively small increase [7] Silicon Iron - The price has declined during the day. Iron - water production has risen above 242. Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has decreased marginally. Overall demand is acceptable. Supply has increased slightly, market transactions are average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has declined. Affected by "anti - involution", the price follows the rebar trend but has relatively weak upward momentum [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides operation ratings for various commodities: 3-star ratings (★★★) for Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Silicomanganese, and Ferrosilicon; no clear indication for Coking Coal and Manganese Silicon [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of short - term oscillation. The market is concerned about terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies. The steel market is cautious due to uncertainties in policies and demand. The iron ore market's upward movement depends on more policy support. The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure due to inventory. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets follow the rebar trend with limited fundamental improvement [2][3][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today. Rebar's apparent demand increased, production rose, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production remained high, and inventory accumulated. Iron - water production decreased but stayed high. From the downstream perspective, infrastructure recovery lacks sustainability, real - estate sales are low, and manufacturing is resilient. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties and "anti - involution" expectations, and it will oscillate in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today. Global shipments decreased after the end - of - quarter rush, while domestic arrivals rebounded, and port inventory increased. Steel apparent demand was stable at a low level, and steel mills' profitability was okay. There is still some production - cut pressure. The market sentiment improved, but further price increases need more policies. Iron ore's short - term trend will follow steel products [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but coking profits are thin, and daily production declined. Inventory decreased, and both traders' and steel mills' purchasing improved. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coke futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. Coking coal mine production increased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply is abundant, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact. The coking coal futures price has a premium, and there is upward pressure due to inventory [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price oscillated upward during the day. Inventory decreased due to previous production cuts, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory rose. Manganese ore inventory is increasing in the long - term, and the current inventory is low, with mines having a stronger willingness to hold prices. The price of Comilog's oxidized ore increased slightly. The silicomanganese market follows the rebar trend, and there is significant pressure at the 6750 level [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated during the day. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was around 30,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. Magnesium production increased, and secondary demand was stable at a high level. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market trading was average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. The ferrosilicon market follows the rebar trend, and there is limited driving force for continuous price rebound [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various steel - related products are mainly oscillatory, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, profit margins of steel mills, and macro - political and economic situations [2][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded after a decline. Thread demand is short - term stable, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Blast furnaces still have profits, and hot - metal production is relatively high, alleviating the negative feedback expectation. The downstream industries have problems such as lack of infrastructure recovery sustainability and poor real - estate indicators. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the production - restriction expectation during the September event supports the futures. It will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fell today, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron - ore shipment has declined, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The domestic arrival volume has decreased but will remain relatively high in the short term, and port inventory has stabilized and increased. Terminal demand in the off - season is as expected, steel mills' profitability is okay, and hot - metal production is high with low willingness to cut production. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and Sino - US trade has shown signs of further relaxation. The fundamentals have little change, and it will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but production profits are meager, and daily production is falling from the annual high. Overall inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, affecting production. Coking - coal mine production has been falling, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and terminal inventory has continued to decline. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production is rising, and inventory is increasing again. The long - term manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and currently, the inventory level is low, increasing the price - holding intention of manganese mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are scarce, and the price has slightly increased. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined. Hot - metal production remains above 242. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and secondary demand remains high. Supply is decreasing, market transactions are average, and on - balance - sheet inventory is decreasing, but production - end inventory is increasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help destock. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing a weak demand in the off - season, with both showing a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a general outlook of weakening oscillations [1][2]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets have obvious off - season characteristics, with both showing a continuous oscillating trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the spot market, the morning buying sentiment was good, but the overall purchase volume was average. Except for a price increase of a small - board safety glass brand, other brands' quotes were stable [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, the overall downstream procurement was average, mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the speculative sentiment was weak [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With some production lines in the red, the glass supply decreased month - on - month. The downstream rigid demand remained weak, and real - estate data was still at a low level. During the traditional consumption off - season, the high inventory of glass strongly suppressed prices. Attention should be paid to glass factories' cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: As previously - overhauled alkali plants resumed production and new projects were launched, the soda ash output increased month - on - month, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The demand from the float and photovoltaic sectors weakened, and the real - estate sector continued to drag down consumption. With the expected contraction of float - glass supply in the future and the approaching of the short - term consumption off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would continue to push down prices [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2]. Double Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures fell by 6 yuan/ton to 5610 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. At the beginning of the week, the market was full of wait - and - see sentiment, and there were few spot quotes. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese output rebounded from a low level, the molten - iron output increased slightly, and the demand for silicomanganese increased slightly. The inventories of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicomanganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to silicomanganese inventories and manganese - ore shipments [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5316 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market rose slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton (cash and tax included), and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton. Currently, the ferrosilicon output increased month - on - month, the demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory was at a high level. As the consumption off - season approached, the consumption intensity of ferrosilicon would be tested. The ferrosilicon production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. However, the overall restocking of ferrosilicon was in a healthy state. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity - price changes and industrial policies on the black - metal sector [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices rebounded, but the basis weakened. It is still the off - season for steel, with better - than - expected decline in off - season demand. High production has not been reduced, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. Weekly SMM data shows a decline in weekly steel exports. Steel is in a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Recent raw material rebounds support the upward shift of the finished product price center. Rebound - biased short operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports is expected to remain at a high level. The demand for hot metal increased slightly last week, and the profitability of steel mills remained stable. However, terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, and there are uncertainties in export and overseas economic changes. Port and steel mill inventories increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 [3]. Coke - Coke futures oscillated, and the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but a phased bottom is emerging. Supply tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. Demand has rigid support from hot metal, but the hot metal output is on a downward trend. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was stable. Domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal types having price rebounds. Supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and accidents. Imported coal has different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal import profits inverting. Demand from coking and downstream industries has some resilience, and there are signs of recovery in restocking demand. Inventories are at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand continued to weaken, and spot prices were weak. Factory inventories decreased but were still high. Iron water demand increased slightly, and there are uncertainties in terminal demand. Non - steel demand has some short - term improvement, and exports may maintain some resilience. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. Supply increased slightly last week, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Demand is weak in the off - season. Manganese ore shipments were basically flat globally, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventories decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Thread steel spot prices in East, North, and South China remained unchanged, while futures prices increased slightly. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and futures prices showed mixed changes [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter - produced thread steel in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coil and thread steel in different regions increased [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.2% to 242.2 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 868.5 tons, with thread steel production increasing by 2.2% and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 0.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.2% to 1338.9 tons, with thread steel inventory decreasing by 1.3% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 5.6%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased by 0.4%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 3.4% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.2%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, and the price indexes of new - exchange 62% Fe and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 8.6% week - on - week, and the global shipment volume decreased by 4.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume increased by 4.1%, and the national monthly hot metal and crude steel output increased [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.1%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Spot prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coke remained unchanged, and the 01 - contract price increased by 0.9%. The 09 - contract basis and the J09 - J01 spread decreased [6]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory decreased by 1.9%, with coking plant and steel mill inventories decreasing [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 9.0% [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The 09 - contract price of coking coal increased by 1.5%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.7%. The 09 - contract basis and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased [6]. Overseas Coal Prices - The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs decreased by 0.1%, and the warehouse - pick - up prices of some domestic coal types remained unchanged [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3% [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 8.8%, and the coking coal inventories of coking plants and steel mills had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 0.8%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price increases. The SF - SM main contract spread was 22.0 [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes. The export price remained unchanged [7]. Supply - The production enterprise's operating rate increased by 4.3%, and the weekly output increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon remained unchanged [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 2.7% [7]. Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 0.1%. Spot prices in some regions remained unchanged, and some regions had price decreases [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in some regions had different changes [7]. Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment was basically flat, domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [7]. Supply - The weekly output of ferromanganese increased by 1.9% [7]. Demand - The demand for ferromanganese from steel - making and non - steel industries has uncertainties [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [7].

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Futures prices strengthened on Friday, and the basis remained weak. Hot - rolled coil production has rebounded, with high apparent demand and a small decline. However, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, and the apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, absorbing production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Operate with a bearish bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 and 3050 yuan for hot - rolled coil and rebar respectively[1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore is under obvious upward pressure due to the expected decline in hot metal, supply increase, and administrative production cuts. However, the short - term decline in hot metal is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the price range of iron ore may shift downwards, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan[3]. Coke - Last week, coke futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. On the supply side, environmental protection inspections have led to production cuts in northern regions, and independent coking operations have declined. On the demand side, hot metal production has continued to decline after reaching a peak. In terms of inventory, coking plants and ports have reduced inventories, and steel mills are actively reducing inventories. Strategically, consider short - term shorting of the coke 2509 contract on rebounds and a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy[5]. Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. On the supply side, domestic production has decreased due to various factors, and imported coal has different situations. On the demand side, coking operations have declined, and downstream users are cautious in restocking. In terms of inventory, overall inventory is at a medium level. Strategically, consider short - term long - coking coal 2509 contract on dips and a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy[5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon: Last week, ferrosilicon production increased slightly, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Due to weakening demand, prices are weak, and manufacturers' losses are intensifying. Although inventories have decreased, they are still relatively high. In terms of demand, hot metal production has increased slightly, but there are risks of off - season demand decline. Strategically, it is recommended to short on rebounds[7]. - Ferromanganese: Last week, ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Supply pressure persists during the off - season. Inventories of manufacturers have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has continued to decline. Although the overall supply - demand situation has improved, it is still insufficient. Strategically, it is recommended to short on rebounds[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed small changes, with some increases. Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also rose slightly. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends[1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets increased by 10 yuan, and the price of slab remained unchanged. The costs of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased to varying degrees[1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar output increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter output increasing and electric - arc furnace output decreasing. Hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.8 tons to 325.5 tons, a 0.2% increase[1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease[1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase[1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly. The basis of 09 contracts for different varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread increased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly[3]. Supply - The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 157.7 tons to 3352.7 tons, a 4.5% decrease, mainly due to a decrease in Australian shipments. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 224.8 tons to 2384.5 tons, an 8.6% decrease, mainly due to the decrease in Brazilian ore arrivals[3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase. National monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease[3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. Coke futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The J09 - J01 spread increased slightly. Coking profits decreased[5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 64.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 47.4 tons, a 0.3% increase[5]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 18.8 to 952.9 tons, a 1.9% decrease. Coking plant inventories, steel mill inventories, and port inventories all decreased to varying degrees[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 to - 5.2 tons, a 9.04% decrease[5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. Sample coal mine profits decreased by 24, a 7.5% decrease[5]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal decreased by 9.8 to 856.4 tons, a 1.1% decrease, and the production of clean coal decreased by 3.4 to 437.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease[5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 64.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 47.4 tons, a 0.3% increase[5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei mines decreased by 25.1 to 258.9 tons, an 8.84% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.3 to 795.8 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7 to 774.7 tons, a 0.14% increase. Port inventories decreased by 8.7 to 303.3 tons, a 2.8% decrease[5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 10 to 5300 yuan. The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 32 to 5616 yuan. The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes[7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions decreased slightly, and the production profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port showed small changes, and the production costs and profits of ferromanganese in different regions also changed[7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3 to 98 tons, a 2.9% increase, and the production enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.3 to 32.7%, a 4.3% increase. Ferromanganese production increased slightly, and the operating rate increased by 1.1 to 36.4%, a 3.14% increase. Manganese ore shipments increased by 9 to 70.7 tons, a 14.6% increase, and arrivals decreased by 14 to 53.8 tons, a 20.6% decrease. Manganese ore port inventories increased by 19.9 to 440.1 tons, a 4.7% increase[7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand calculated by the Steel Union remained unchanged at 2 tons. The ferromanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increased by 0.2 to 124 tons. The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 to 68 tons, a 2.7% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 1.0 to 20.6 tons, a 5.14% increase. The average available days of ferrosilicon inventory for downstream users increased by 0.2 to 15.4 days, a 1.2% increase. The average available days of ferromanganese inventory decreased by 0.3 to 15 days, a 1.9% decrease[7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Currently, hot-rolled coil production has rebounded, and apparent demand remains high with a small decline. However, both supply and demand of rebar are weak, and apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, digesting production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. In the short term, inventory remains low, and the pressure on steel mills to cut production is small. Iron element costs are supported, but carbon elements are still weak. Later, steel prices will follow the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Operationally, consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore has obvious upside pressure due to the expected decline in molten iron, supply increase, and administrative reduction. However, the short - term decline in molten iron is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the iron ore price range may shift downward, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan. Although the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, it still has some short - term resilience. The average molten iron output in June is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. Pay attention to the change in molten iron output in July [3]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose. With the sharp rise in crude oil driving the expectation of an energy crisis and the news of production restrictions in the production areas, the coal - coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing an opportunity for hedging short positions. Unilaterally, it is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on short - term rebounds. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The spot fundamentals of coking coal have improved. Affected by the risk of geopolitical conflicts and the sharp rise in crude oil, coking coal has followed the upward trend, and the basis has been repaired. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on short - term dips. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Affected by the continuous weakening of demand, prices remained weak, and manufacturers' losses continued to intensify. Although manufacturers' inventories decreased, the absolute value was still high. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved. In the short term, the stabilization of costs gives some room for price increases, but the sustainability is questionable. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese continued its rebound trend last week. Although its absolute valuation is low, its supply is still relatively loose. Supply increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Under the off - season demand, supply pressure still exists. Manufacturers' inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decline. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. Some regions' spot prices increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. For example, the rebar spot price in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while some steelmaking costs decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions decreased to varying degrees. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 13 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter production increasing by 6.2 tons and electric furnace production decreasing by 1.6 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased by 46.8 yuan/ton, a 49.8% decrease [3]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly due to a decrease in shipments from Australia. The arrival volume at ports decreased slightly, mainly due to a decrease in the arrival of Brazilian ore. Based on shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The average daily ore - removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. The third - round spot price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a reduction of 70/75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative reduction was 120/135 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel mills proposed a fourth - round price cut on the 20th, which is expected to be implemented on the 23rd [6]. - **Supply**: Recently, environmental protection inspection teams have entered multiple northern provinces. Affected by environmental protection and other factors such as maintenance, the supply of coking in the northern region has tightened, and the operation rate of independent coking plants has declined [6]. - **Demand**: In June, molten iron production continued to remain above 2.4 million tons per day, but the blast furnace operation rate decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued the trend of peaking and falling [6]. - **Inventory**: Coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decrease, and steel mill inventories also decreased. Downstream steel mills continued the rhythm of active de - stocking, and overall inventories were at a medium level [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal prices slowed down, and the prices of some coal mines rebounded slightly, but the overall market was still weak [6]. - **Supply**: In the Inner Mongolia region, many coal mines stopped production due to environmental protection and other factors. In the Shanxi region, supply decreased significantly due to accidents and other factors, and coal mines began to hold prices. Overall, the production of coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure was still obvious. The import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, and there was a recent price correction [6]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of coking plants began to decline, and the molten iron production of blast furnaces continued the trend of peaking and falling. Downstream users mainly replenished their inventories on - demand. Although the downstream demand still had some resilience, the overall demand was weakening [6]. - **Inventory**: Coal mine inventories continued to accumulate at a high level, and there was pressure to reduce prices for sales. Port inventories began to decline from a high level, and downstream users controlled their inventories. The overall inventory was at a medium level [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The cost of production in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The export of ferrosilicon may still maintain some resilience, but the marginal growth space is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers decreased, but the absolute value was still high. The average available days of downstream ferrosilicon increased slightly [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The manganese ore supply and demand situation changed, with an increase in the shipment volume and a decrease in the arrival volume at ports [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The demand for ferromanganese from metal iron has not improved significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese manufacturers increased, and the average available days of downstream ferromanganese decreased slightly [7].