首轮提降开启，市场信心受挫 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪悲观，玻碱震荡下跌 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下跌，悲观情绪较浓。现货方面，沙河市场表现仍偏弱，华东市场窄幅整理， 华中市场今日价格偏弱运行，华南区域企业价格暂时维稳，东北企业仍维持稳定，整体出货一般，外发为主。 供需与逻辑：近期玻璃产量呈现下降趋势。然而由于地产和深加工需求恢复不足，导致补库力度和持续性不强， 玻璃累库明显，价格缺乏向上动力，后期高温梅雨季节不利于玻璃储存，企业降价出货降库的意向或更加强烈。 纯碱方面：昨日期货盘面震荡偏弱运行。现货方面，国内纯碱市场稳中震荡，成交价格灵活。据隆众数据显示， 昨日纯碱开工率75.45%，装置减量，负荷下降，全国纯碱企业产量环比延续回落。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-14 供需与逻辑：受碱厂检修增加影响，近期纯碱产量有所下滑，但仍维持宽松状态。目前光伏增量放缓，纯碱需求 提升空间有限，去库压力仍然偏大。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化。 双硅：市场行情低迷，检修继续增加 市场分析 硅锰方面，近期市场预期持 ...

免责声明 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前位 | 不改 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3220 | 3170 | 50 | 117 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3190 | 20 | 107 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3280 | 30 | 207 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3036 | 2988 | 48 | 184 | | | 载纹钢10合约 | 3082 | 3022 | 60 | 138 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3103 | 3037 | ୧୧ | 117 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3280 | 3220 | 60 | 51 | | | 热卷现货 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月9日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 226 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2991 | 3048 | -57 | 209 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3052 | 3098 | -46 | 148 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3074 | 3156 | -52 | 126 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | 50 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 0 | | | 热卷现 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月9日 研究所晨会观点精萃 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱: wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融：美英达成有限贸易协 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月7日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 圳值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | ਰੇ8 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | 88 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | 158 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3045 | 15 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3096 | 3100 | -4 | 124 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3122 | 3128 | -6 | ರಿ8 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3240 | 3260 | -20 | 8 | | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | -22 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-07 市场矛盾不足，矿价弱势震荡 玻璃纯碱：现货成交弱稳，玻碱高开低走 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面高开偏弱震荡。现货方面，市场整体成交弱稳，环比假期有所好转。 供需与逻辑：近期点火、放水产线均有，点火产线尚未出货的情况下，供应压力或可小幅缓解，玻璃库存小幅去 化。然而由于地产和深加工需求恢复不足，导致补库力度和持续性不强，价格缺乏向上空间，后期高温梅雨季节 不利于玻璃储存，所以企业出货降库的意向或将较前期更加强烈。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面高开震荡偏弱。现货方面，市场需求一般，刚需采购为主，华北和华中地区轻重碱 价格环比下跌10-30元/吨。 供需与逻辑：近期纯碱产量稳步提升，维持宽松状态，需求相对稳定，低价补库。其中，光伏增量放缓，纯碱需 求提升空间有限，去库压力仍然偏大。预计后期会不间断的出现碱厂降负检修情况，以缓解纯碱累库压力。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：成本中枢下移，双硅再创新低 市场分析 硅锰方面：随着市场情绪的进一步走弱 ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月30日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3240 | -20 | ರಿನ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 82 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3270 | 3300 | -30 | 142 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3045 | 3060 | -15 | 175 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3100 | 3129 | -29 | 120 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3128 | 3157 | -29 | 92 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 22 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3240 | -20 | -18 | | | 热卷现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月24日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 40 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 50 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 130 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3030 | 3059 | -29 | 150 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3106 | 3137 | -31 | 74 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3140 | 3166 | -26 | 40 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3240 | 3270 | -30 | / | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | -13 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月16日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3170 | 3170 | O | 13 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | ਕਤੇ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3049 | 3047 | 2 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3125 | 3126 | -1 | ਕੇਟੇ | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3157 | 3157 | 0 | 13 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | -14 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | -34 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...