Market Overview - The market experienced a V-shaped rebound in the afternoon, with the Sci-Tech 50 index surging by 7.23% [1][3] - Major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.14%, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index leading with a 3.82% increase [1][3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 7.14%), Electronics (up 5.53%), and Defense & Military (up 2.29%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Coal (-0.81%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (-0.73%), and Textiles and Apparel (-0.47%) lagged behind [2] Conceptual Indices - Conceptual indices that performed well included Copper Cable High-Speed Connection (up 5.61%), Co-packaged Optics (CPO) (up 5.13%), and F5G Concept (up 5.12%) [2] - Underperforming conceptual indices included Genetically Modified Organisms (-1.81%) and Alzheimer’s Concept (-1.07%) [2] Future Outlook - The report indicates that the market's upward momentum is driven by industrial policy support and ample liquidity, with expectations of a fiscal stimulus window in the 3rd to 4th quarter [5] - It is suggested to focus on technology growth and financial sectors for investment opportunities, while cyclical industries and new energy may see performance improvements in the latter half of the year [5]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 29 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 08 月 29 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 1.1%，沪深 300 上涨 1.8%，科创 50 上涨 7.2%，中证 1000 上涨 1.5%，创业板指上涨 3.8%，恒生指数下跌 0.8%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是通信（+7.1%)、电子（+5.5%)、国防军工（+2.3%)、计算机（+2.1%)、非银金 融（+1.5%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（-0.8%)、农林牧渔（-0.7%)、纺织服饰（-0.5%)、食品饮料（-0.4%)、 医药生物（-0.2%)。 ❑ 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 29708 亿元，南下资金净流出 204.4 亿港元。 ❑ 【浙商传媒互联网 冯翠婷/陈磊】神州泰岳（300002）公司点评：产品周期过渡期，新游有望 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.14% on August 28, with 22 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the communication and electronics sectors, which increased by 7.14% and 5.53% respectively [2] - The coal and agriculture sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 0.81% and 0.73% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 44.343 billion yuan, with five sectors experiencing net inflows [2] - The electronics sector had the highest net inflow of 10.553 billion yuan, while the communication sector followed with a net inflow of 4.998 billion yuan [2] - The computer sector faced the largest net outflow, totaling 11.007 billion yuan, followed by the pharmaceutical and biological sector with an outflow of 7.892 billion yuan [2] Textile and Apparel Sector Performance - The textile and apparel sector declined by 0.47% with a net capital outflow of 372 million yuan [3] - Out of 105 stocks in this sector, 33 stocks rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 69 stocks fell [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Huasheng Co. with 126 million yuan, followed by Nanshan Zhishang and Nuobang Co. with inflows of 81.299 million yuan and 40.945 million yuan respectively [3][4] Notable Stocks in Textile and Apparel Sector - The stocks with significant capital outflows included Jihua Group with an outflow of 54.603 million yuan, followed by Jinhong Group and Jinyi Culture with outflows of 51.062 million yuan and 48.235 million yuan respectively [5] - Other notable stocks with capital outflows included Kute Intelligent and Wanlima, with outflows of 43.708 million yuan and 43.228 million yuan respectively [5][6]

8月27日周大生发布2025半年度分配预案，拟10派2.5元(含税)，预计派现金额合计为2.71亿元。派现额 占净利润比例为45.70%，这是公司上市以来，累计第13次派现。 公司上市以来历次分配方案一览 日期分配方案派现金额合计(亿元)股息率(%) 2025.06.30 10派2.5元(含税) 2.71 1.83 2024.12.31 10派6.5元(含税) 7.06 4.62 2024.06.30 10派3元(含税) 3.26 1.76 2023.12.31 10派6.5元(含税) 7.06 4.02 2023.06.30 10派3元(含税) 3.26 1.85 2017.12.31 10派6元(含税) 2.91 1.85 2016.12.31 10派6元(含税) 2.87 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，公司8月27日公布了半年报，共实现营业收入45.97亿元，同比下降 43.92%，实现净利润5.94亿元，同比下降1.27%，基本每股收益为0.55元，加权平均净资产收益率为 9.09%。 资金面上看，该股8月27日主力资金净流入238.17万元，近5日主力资金净流入865.16万元。 2022.12.31 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth, with a contribution rate of 68.8% in the first half of the year, where final consumption expenditure accounted for 52% [1] - The Chinese consumption market is experiencing a trend of "consumption upgrading," emphasizing "value for money" and "emotional value," leading to the emergence of new consumption hotspots and driving the performance of the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption concept sector, which has seen a nearly 45% increase over the past year [2][3] - The rise of new consumption is driven by the Z generation's demand for self-satisfaction and the emergence of domestic IP, with a shift from Japanese-led industries to domestic competition, creating a differentiated competitive landscape [3][10] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Consumption Index, which tracks the top 50 consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market, focuses on both essential and non-essential consumption, with a significant portion (about 70%) in non-essential consumption [6][8] - The index's top three sectors are home appliances and supplies (33%), food and beverages (29%), and textiles and clothing (21%), aligning with current trends in self-satisfaction consumption and the rise of domestic products [6][8] - The index's valuation is currently at a low level, with the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) at 19.31 times, below the median of the past five years, indicating potential for growth in the new consumption sector [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 22.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by strong performance in its main brand and e-commerce channels [7] - The company has demonstrated resilience in a challenging market environment, with a high gross margin of 75.9% in H1 2025, despite a slight decline compared to the previous year [7][12] - The company is actively cultivating a second growth curve while maintaining leadership in its main brand, indicating strong long-term growth potential [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 4,406 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.0% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 701 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.23 yuan in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 [6] Channel Performance - E-commerce revenue surged by 71.8% year-on-year to 210 million yuan in H1 2025, maintaining a high gross margin of 77.9% [7] - Direct sales revenue reached 1,410 million yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [7] - The company has expanded its store network to 1,328 locations, enhancing its channel structure for long-term development [7] Asset Quality and Financial Strength - The company reported a significant cash inflow of 3.4 billion yuan in operating cash flow for H1 2025, with available funds exceeding 2.6 billion yuan [7] - Inventory increased to 1.04 billion yuan, with a healthy age structure, indicating strong inventory management [7]

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector has been the main driver of the A-share market's upward trend this year, while funds are increasingly flowing into the consumer sector, particularly food and beverage ETFs, indicating a shift in market focus [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Analysis - The upcoming traditional consumption peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") raises questions about whether the consumer sector can achieve both valuation and performance recovery after three years of adjustment [2]. - Since mid-August, consumer-themed ETFs have seen significant inflows, with over 3.4 billion yuan net inflow into consumer ETFs, particularly nearly 3 billion yuan into food and beverage ETFs [3]. - The consumer sector's valuation is at a near three-year low, with the major consumer index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.88 times, about 30% lower than its three-year average of 28.17 times [7]. Group 2: Performance and Growth Potential - The 800 Consumer Index is expected to see net profit growth exceeding that of the CSI 300 Index from 2024 to 2027, with a forecast of double-digit growth in 2026 and 2027 [8]. - The consumer sector's market activity has increased, with the average turnover rate of the 800 Consumer Index rising for three consecutive months since June, and the food and beverage sector achieving a daily average turnover rate of 3.55% in August [11]. - Companies in the consumer sector have a strong track record of dividends and buybacks, with over half of the index constituents implementing buybacks and a total buyback amount exceeding 13 billion yuan [12]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends indicate that the consumer sector often experiences a "first rise" and "subsequent rise" pattern during A-share bull markets, suggesting potential for future gains [14][16]. - The government has emphasized consumption as a key area for economic policy, with initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing growth [15]. - Twelve underperforming consumer stocks with low valuations and strong earnings potential have been identified, including well-known companies like Kweichow Moutai and Yutong Bus, which have shown stable profit growth [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The technology innovation sector has been the main driver for the A-share market's upward trend this year, while funds are increasingly flowing into the consumer sector, particularly food and beverage ETFs, as the traditional consumption peak season approaches [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Flow into Consumer ETFs - Since mid-August, there has been a significant inflow of funds into consumer-themed ETFs, with over 3.4 billion yuan net inflow, particularly in food and beverage ETFs which saw nearly 3 billion yuan [2]. - Prior to August, the consumer-themed ETFs experienced a net outflow of nearly 700 million yuan in the first seven months of the year, with food and beverage ETFs alone seeing a net outflow of nearly 1.2 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Consumer Sector - The valuation of the major consumer index is at a near three-year low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.88, which is about 30% lower than the three-year average of 28.17 [3]. - The consumer index has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of less than 5%, compared to nearly 16% for the Shanghai Composite Index and over 38% for the technology index [3]. Group 3: Performance and Growth of the Consumer Sector - The 800 consumer index is expected to see net profit growth exceeding that of the CSI 300 index from 2024 to 2027, with a forecast of double-digit growth in 2026 and 2027 [4]. - The trading activity in the consumer sector has increased, with the average turnover rate rising for three consecutive months, reaching 3.55% in August for the food and beverage sector [4]. Group 4: Historical Trends and Future Outlook - Historical data shows that during previous bull markets, the consumer sector often experiences a "lagging" effect, with significant gains occurring after initial market rallies [6]. - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," indicate a supportive environment for the consumer sector [7][8]. Group 5: Undervalued Consumer Stocks - There are 12 consumer stocks identified as undervalued and high-performing, with a projected net profit growth of over 5% for the first half of 2024 and 2025, and a current price-to-earnings ratio below 30 [9]. - Notable examples include Kweichow Moutai, which has a price-to-earnings ratio of around 20 and a net profit growth forecast of nearly 9% for the first half of 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for Semir Apparel (stock code: 002563.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company's short-term profits are under pressure, but channel optimization is ongoing, with a focus on long-term growth strategies [5] - The children's clothing segment remains robust, while the casual wear segment faces challenges due to strategic adjustments in online discounts [5] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with significant growth in international revenue [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, Semir Apparel achieved revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.26%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 325 million yuan, a decline of 41.17% [5] - The second quarter saw revenue of 3.070 billion yuan, up 9.04% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 46.25% [5] - The company reported a mid-term dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 124.32% [5] Business Segment Analysis - The children's clothing business generated revenue of 4.313 billion yuan, a 5.97% increase, accounting for 70.15% of total revenue [5] - Casual wear revenue was 1.723 billion yuan, down 4.98% due to adjustments in online discount strategies [5] - Direct sales, franchise, and online channels generated revenues of 948 million yuan, 2.334 billion yuan, and 2.692 billion yuan respectively, with direct sales growing by 34.78% [5] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 46.79%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Selling expenses increased by 17.67% due to new store openings and online marketing costs, impacting the net profit margin, which fell to 5.19% [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover profits in the long term as channel structure optimization and overseas business development continue [5] - EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 0.37, 0.41, and 0.46 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues its strong momentum with major indices reaching new highs, driven by favorable policies and industry upgrades, indicating a potential continuation of this strong market trend [1][2]. Major Index Performance - A-share indices collectively surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.51% to 3883.56 points, Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 2.26% and 3.00% respectively, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index up by 3.2% [2]. - The total market turnover reached 3.14 trillion yuan, a significant increase of nearly 600 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a historical high in trading volume [2]. - The Hong Kong market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index up by 1.94% to 25829.91 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 3.14% to 5825.09 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 2.39% [2]. Industry Hotspots and Driving Logic - The A-share market exhibited notable sector rotation, with technology growth and cyclical resource sectors driving the market. The telecommunications sector surged by 4.85%, supported by themes related to computing power and AI hardware [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 4.63%, bolstered by demand from the new energy supply chain and high-end manufacturing [3]. - The real estate sector increased by 3.32% due to local policy optimizations, while the comprehensive sector and steel sector also showed positive performance, indicating a strong market response to growth-stabilizing policies [3]. - In the Hong Kong market, the materials sector led with a 4.42% increase, followed by non-essential consumer goods and information technology sectors, which rose by 3.41% and 2.46% respectively [3]. Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - All 31 A-share industries recorded gains, but the beauty care and textile sectors lagged, reflecting ongoing market divergence regarding consumer recovery [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, sectors such as online education, fintech, and stablecoins experienced declines, indicating a cautious risk appetite for high-valuation stocks [4]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - With supportive policies and capital inflows creating a positive cycle, the economic recovery expectations and industry upgrade logic are driving the stock market steadily upward [5]. - The market is showing significant sector rotation, suggesting a need to avoid chasing high prices. The alternating performance between cyclical sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals and technology growth sectors will be key to maintaining market momentum [5]. - Low-valuation sectors such as real estate and consumer goods are beginning to show potential for recovery under policy catalysts, necessitating a dynamic balance between valuation safety margins and industry prosperity [5].