Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic lead prices have risen due to supportive policies and positive market sentiment, while global lead prices are also buoyed by a weaker dollar and increased risk appetite in the stock market [1][2] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 17,520 yuan per ton, up 120 yuan or 0.69%, and trading volume reaching 56,885 lots [1] - The current market for lead is characterized by a structural differentiation in supply, with primary lead production facing constraints due to tight concentrate availability and low processing fees, while recycled lead is limited by high costs and low operating rates [2] Group 2 - Demand in the lead battery sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, influenced by inventory adjustments from end-of-year vehicle manufacturers and the transition period of new national standards, leading to reduced operating rates [2] - The overall market is currently subdued, with transactions primarily consisting of spot trades, and sellers are increasing discounts to recover funds, reflecting typical pre-holiday seasonal trading characteristics [2] - Short-term price support is provided by low social inventory, while the pressure from factory inventory and seasonal demand constraints may limit upward price movement, indicating that lead prices are likely to exhibit a predominantly strong trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, and tin are worth attention. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there is an expected tightening in supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. The macro - environment of loose liquidity supports copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the supply - demand for copper is expected to tighten [7]. - **Alumina**: Cost support is not very effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak. The cost support is average, and there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: With optimistic capital sentiment, aluminum prices have risen significantly. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and utilization rates are high, and there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and inventory has increased. In the short term, the positive macro - outlook and expected tightening of supply - demand suggest that aluminum prices will remain in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The cost support from tight scrap aluminum supply is solid. Supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversions. Demand is currently based on rigid needs, and the medium - term demand is expected to improve. With cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to remain in a strong - side oscillation in the short and medium terms [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The import ore TC has not stopped falling, and zinc prices have rebounded with the non - ferrous sector. The macro - outlook may be volatile. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and smelter profits are declining. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc prices may remain in high - level oscillation, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term [15][16]. - **Lead**: With the accumulation of social inventory, lead prices are oscillating with the non - ferrous sector. On the supply side, production has decreased due to environmental protection and other factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders are weak, while automobile battery orders are improving. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. - **Nickel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the market is oscillating. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026. On the supply side, there is pressure. On the demand side, it is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and the actual quota implementation needs to be monitored [18][20]. - **Stainless Steel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the stainless - steel market has corrected. The cost has some support. Production decreased in December, and there may be a slight increase in January. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate, and Indonesian policy changes need to be tracked [21][22]. - **Tin**: With continued capital games, tin prices are running strongly. Supply risks are high. On the supply side, there are disruptions in various regions, and refined tin production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow due to factors such as the semiconductor industry and new energy. Tin prices are expected to run strongly in an oscillating manner [22][24]. 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: No specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. - **Alumina**: On January 5, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a slight decline in Xinjiang. The alumina warehouse receipts were 156,917 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the SMM AOO average price was 23,310 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On January 5, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 22,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Zinc**: On January 5, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were reported. As of January 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from December 31, 2025. In 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly [15][16]. - **Lead**: On January 5, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [17]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased slightly. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026 [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 5, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was reported [21]. - **Tin**: On January 5, the LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In December, lead prices fluctuated and rebounded. The domestic lead price is near the upper edge of the oscillation range, with high concentration of long - position funds. As the feverish sentiment in precious metals fades, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In December, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.52% to 17,355 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 0.92 million lots to 8.61 million lots. The LME 3M lead contract rose 0.98% to $2,005.5/ton, and the total position increased by 0.97 million lots to 17.86 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of 125 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory remained flat at 17,400 tons. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrate in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15]. - **Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,531,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November, the net import of lead - containing ore was 120,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,423,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.4% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 256,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.1%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,955,400 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9%. In September 2025, the global lead ore production was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total production of lead ore was 3,402,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days [21]. - **Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate import TC was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,514,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's recycled lead production was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,608,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [33]. - **Lead Ingot Trade and Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. In November, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Lead - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 5.0% year - on - year [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - batteries in factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Two - wheeled Vehicles**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles [47]. - **Automobiles**: The contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the start - up rate of lead - acid start - up batteries [49]. - **Base Stations**: The rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication base stations and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 70 tons, and the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference from January to November was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [60]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 1,700 tons [63]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis and Spread**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton [68][70]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton [73]. - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was high. The LME lead investment fund seats turned net - short, and the net - short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance is neutral [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [6] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] Core Viewpoints - At the end of the year, the supply-demand weakness of lead products is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non-ferrous sector, the demand in the off-season is even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Raw Material End - In December, the lead concentrate market continued the pattern of loose supply abroad and tight supply at home. The output of domestic lead concentrates was about 141,000 metal tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%. The import volume in November was 123,000 physical tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The cumulative import for the whole year exceeded 1.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The processing fees continued to decline, and the profits of smelters were further compressed [1] - Due to the seasonal increase in the scrap volume at the end of the year, the recycling volume of waste batteries increased by about 8% month-on-month, but the tax-inclusive price remained firm at 9,950 yuan/ton. The loss of secondary lead enterprises narrowed to -350 yuan/ton, but the procurement was still cautious [1] Primary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December, the operating capacity of primary lead first decreased and then increased. SMM estimated that the output of electrolytic lead in December was 275,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,000 tons. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 3.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [2] - In December, the import window of lead ingots continued to open, with about 15,000 tons flowing in from bonded area inventories. Exports remained sluggish, with only a small number of long-term orders to Southeast Asia being executed. The net import for the whole month was 13,000 tons, marking the third consecutive month of net imports [2] Secondary Lead Production and Import-Export - In December 2025, the secondary lead sector continued the cycle of losses leading to production cuts. SMM predicted that the output of secondary refined lead in December was only 112,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months. The cumulative output for the whole year was about 1.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [3] - Due to intensified domestic losses, smelters increased the import of crude lead to reduce costs. The export of secondary alloy ingots was affected by anti-dumping duties in Southeast Asia, with only 4,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 20%. The export of secondary lead-related products showed negative growth for the first time in the whole year [3] Consumption End - In December, the lead-acid battery market was even weaker in the off-season. The export of lead batteries in December was 17.5 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The cumulative export for the whole year was about 215 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, the first annual negative growth since 2015 [4] - The average price of 48V12Ah batteries in December was 268 yuan/group, a month-on-month decrease of 2%. Battery manufacturers generally adopted a strategy of reducing prices to maintain sales volume, but still could not offset the shrinking demand, and the finished product inventory rose to 45 days, the highest level in the same period in the past three years [4] Inventory End - In December, the inventory trends at home and abroad continued to diverge. As of December 27, the lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the end of November, a decrease of 16%. The LME inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 261,000 tons at the end of the month, a month-on-month increase of 11,000 tons [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 in January 2026 [6][7] - Option: Sell wide straddle [7] - Basis Strategy: It is recommended to continue holding mainstream deliverable products and sell far-month contracts, and pay attention to the inventory accumulation rhythm after the festival and the resumption of production progress of secondary lead [9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Jixianfei, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: January 4, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, but considering the low inventory, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between futures contracts [6]. - The supply of primary lead is affected by smelter maintenance, and the supply of recycled lead is restricted by raw material shortages. The demand side is weakening marginally, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading Aspect - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.14%. The closing price of LmeS-Lead 3 was 1,946.5 dollars/ton, with a decline of 2.65%. The LME lead premium decreased by 8.73 dollars/ton, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased by 75 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of lead in five regions decreased this week, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The SHFE lead inventory and LME lead inventory also showed corresponding changes [3][7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract increased by 19,189 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,146 lots. The trading volume of LmeS-Lead 3 increased by 602 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,194 lots [7]. 2. Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, consumption, and inventory of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates also changed over time [31][32]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead and recycled lead showed different trends in different years. The production of recycled lead was restricted by the tight supply of waste batteries [35][36]. 3. Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased, and the finished - product inventory days of enterprises and dealers increased. The export volume of batteries also showed different trends in different years [49]. - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead and the production of automobiles and motorcycles showed different trends in different years [51].

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：需求减弱，限制价格上涨 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：17300-17800元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水缩窄至平水 -200 -150 -100 -5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is oscillating at a low level, with continued inventory decline and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and an option strategy of selling a wide straddle is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.30/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white casings remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black casings increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 24, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,030 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 68,022 lots, an increase of 23,412 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 56,538 lots, a decrease of 1,548 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,305 yuan/ton and a low of 17,000 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the afternoon close of the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly shipped long - term contracts, and traders actively cleared inventories. The spot offer for scattered lots was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered at a premium of 10 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price to sell off stocks. In Yunnan, holders offered at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price for just - in - time transactions. The downstream mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts. Some smelters lowered the premium of their quotes to sell, and some traders temporarily closed their accounts after selling out their inventories and did not participate in trading. The market trading was light [2] Inventory - On December 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of December 24, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The lead price is expected to trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and the option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lead market will shift from a tight - balance to an inventory accumulation cycle. The domestic market will show an independent cost - defense trend due to the bottleneck of recycled lead raw materials, presenting a pattern of weak overseas and strong domestic markets. The expected trading range for the main contract of SHFE lead is around 16,200 - 18,200 yuan/ton, and for LME lead, it is about 1,950 - 2,200 US dollars/ton [2]. - On the supply side, primary lead will maintain high production driven by high by - product profits, contributing the main increment. Recycled lead production growth will stagnate due to a 10% - 15% loss in the effective supply of waste batteries caused by fiscal and tax compliance and reverse invoicing policies. The implicit tightening of raw materials will establish the cost line of recycled lead as a solid foundation for industry pricing [2]. - On the demand side, it enters an era dominated by existing stocks, with an expected growth rate of 1.5%. The relaxation of the weight limit for two - wheeled vehicles in the new national standard to 63 kg will boost the share of lead - acid batteries, effectively offsetting the substitution of lithium batteries. The global surplus of 102,000 tons will mainly accumulate overseas, while the domestic surplus will be only about 30,000 tons, meaning that domestic visible inventory will remain at a low level and the export window will be difficult to open [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, the lead price experienced a logical switch from cost - based pricing to macro - disturbances and then to supply - side contraction due to policies. The price center gradually increased in a wide - range fluctuation. In the fourth quarter, it showed a reverse - V shape, with the game between macro and industry intensifying again at the end of the year [3][6]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Transition to Tight - Balance - In 2026, the global lead concentrate supply will enter a substantial recovery cycle, with the total output growth rate expected to reach an inflection point. The growth rate is expected to rise significantly to over 2.2% from the low - growth range of 0.7% - 1.3% in 2025, and the global total output of lead concentrate is expected to exceed 4.67 million tons. The supply - demand pattern will transition from a structural shortage to a tight - balance [9]. - The concentrated commissioning of overseas new and expanded projects is the primary driving force for supply growth in 2026, with an expected new increment of about 212,000 tons. China's import volume of lead concentrate is expected to increase slightly, and the frequency of import window openings may be better than in 2025 [12]. - Although the domestic mine end has capacity expansion plans, the actual output elasticity is limited due to compliance constraints. The new domestic lead concentrate capacity in 2026 is about 82,000 metal tons, but the self - sufficiency rate of the domestic raw material market is difficult to reverse fundamentally [14]. - The profit distribution pattern between mining and smelting is difficult to change fundamentally, and low processing fees (TC) will become the norm, providing cost support for lead prices [16]. 3.2.2 Lead Ingot: Moderate Recovery and Structural Differentiation of Supply - Globally, the supply system of refined lead in 2026 is entering a slow - recovery channel. The growth of total output is mainly driven by the recovery outside China. The global refined lead output is expected to increase by 0.8% - 1.2% year - on - year, approaching 13.5 million tons [18]. - In the Chinese market, the growth momentum of supply is slowing down. The domestic refined lead output in 2026 is expected to be about 7.8 million tons (with a floating range of 40,000 tons), and the year - on - year growth rate will narrow to 1.7% - 2.0% [18]. - In the smelting structure, primary lead shows strong production resilience and will be the core contributor to supply increment in 2026, with an expected output growth rate of 2.5% - 3.0%. Recycled lead is facing cost and policy challenges and is the biggest risk point for supply reduction. Its output growth is expected to be only 0.6% - 1.0%, or even show local contraction [20][22]. - In 2026, the smelting end will show a clear structural differentiation of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead, and the price center of lead will be firmly supported by the marginal cost of recycled lead [24]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Demand Side 3.3.1 Overall Consumption: Rigid Support and Marginal Differentiation under Stock Dominance - In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of China's refined lead consumption is expected to narrow to about 1.5%, and the global demand growth rate will drop to 0.9%. The domestic lead consumption has rigid support, and the overall demand will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation pattern with a rigid bottom and limited upward elasticity [26]. 3.3.2 Lead - Acid Batteries: Differentiated Start - Up and Structural Reconstruction of Exports - In 2025, the lead - acid battery production showed a significant feature of differentiated start - up rates among different types and seasonal recovery. The overall industry's comprehensive start - up rate decreased compared with 2024, with traction batteries being the core support in the second half of the year, while starting and stationary batteries were weak [27]. - In 2025, the external demand for lead - acid batteries declined, and the export volume recorded a negative growth for the first time in recent years. The export price advantage was small, and the export structure changed significantly. The export volume to the United States and some Middle Eastern countries decreased sharply, while the export to Vietnam increased significantly [29]. - In 2025, the inventory in the industrial chain was mismatched, and the inventory pressure was transferred from the production end to the channel end. The battery factory's inventory decreased, while the dealer's inventory reached a historical high, which may overdraw the restocking potential in the first quarter of 2026 [31]. 3.3.3 Electric Bicycles: Policy Dividend Switch and Technological Return of "Lithium Retreat and Lead Advance" - In 2025, the electric bicycle market showed a "policy - driven" recovery, and the "trade - in" policy boosted the demand for lead - acid power batteries [33]. - In 2026, the core driving force of the industry will shift from fiscal subsidies to industrial standards. The revision of the new national standard for electric bicycles will release long - term institutional dividends, and the market share of lead - acid batteries is expected to stabilize and rebound [34][35]. - The lead consumption in the electric bicycle sector in 2026 is expected to grow moderately, with an estimated growth rate of lead consumption in the range of 1.5% - 2.0% [35]. 3.4 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Inventory 3.4.1 Global Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the global lead market will show a surplus. The growth of mine production is mainly from overseas project expansion, and the growth of refined lead production shows a pattern of strong primary lead and weak recycled lead. The growth of refined lead consumption is mainly supported by Europe, the United States, and Vietnam [39]. 3.4.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, the domestic lead market will have a marginal surplus of about 30,000 tons. The consumption growth rate is expected to be 1.5%, and the supply - demand balance will be affected by the production of primary and recycled lead and net imports [39]. 3.4.3 Inventory: Differentiation between Domestic and Overseas - In 2025, the global lead visible inventory showed a significant regional mismatch, with LME inventory accumulating to a historical high and domestic social inventory remaining at a low level. In 2026, the global supply - demand surplus is expected to expand, and the high overseas inventory will suppress the LME lead price. The domestic visible inventory is difficult to accumulate substantially, and the low domestic inventory will support the SHFE lead price [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, but some varieties are expected to decline after completion of delivery. The lead price is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the downstream restocking period before the festival is still early. The current operation should mainly focus on selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range being 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$48.16/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 45.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,825 yuan/ton and closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 40,173 lots, a decrease of 506 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 26,930 lots, a decrease of 2,802 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,855 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,680 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,780 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotation discount of suppliers continued to narrow, quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters supported prices for shipment, with quotations at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory. In Tianjin, the quotations of suppliers varied greatly. Some actively shipped at the end of the year with large discounts, while others had firm quotations due to limited inventory. In Yunnan, suppliers held back from selling and waited and watched, with a small amount of transactions at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. The lead futures fluctuated weakly, smelters continued to hold back from selling and wait and watch, downstream rigid - demand procurement still picked up goods from nearby warehouses, and the overall spot market transactions of scattered orders were still relatively light [2] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 22,000 tons, a change of 1,400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of December 17, the LME lead inventory was 265,575 tons, a decrease of 2,875 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Adopt a cautious and bearish strategy. After the Fed's interest rate meeting, most non - ferrous metals showed an upward trend, but after completion of delivery, some varieties are expected to decline. The lead price is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the Spring Festival this year is relatively late, the downstream restocking period before the festival is still early. The current operation should mainly focus on selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range being 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1 - Anhui Fuyang issued an orange alert for heavy pollution and initiated a Level II emergency response, leading to a 50% reduction in output from several large-scale recycled lead smelting companies until the emergency response is lifted [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the average price of lead will be slightly above $2000 per ton in 2026 [1] - LME lead inventory remained at 252,500 tons as of December 16, with a weekly increase of 15,600 tons (6.56%) and a monthly increase of 30,000 tons (13.48%) [1] Group 2 - Minmetals Futures reported that lead ore inventory is stable, while primary lead operating rates are marginally declining; recycled lead operating rates are on the rise, and downstream battery manufacturers are seeing a slight increase in operating rates [3] - Domestic lead ingot social inventory remains relatively low, with upstream factory inventory declining marginally; however, the Shanghai lead month difference remains low [3] - The sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is waning, leading to low positions in Shanghai lead, with expectations for lead prices to operate weakly within a wide range in the short term [3] Group 3 - Southwest Futures noted that some primary lead enterprises continue maintenance due to raw material tightness and profit pressure, increasing the willingness of recycled lead companies to reduce production [4] - The lead-acid battery market is entering a traditional off-season, with weak terminal demand and limited replenishment for electric bicycles and automotive batteries [4] - A decrease of 3,200 tons in primary lead social inventory last week provides some support, while supply contraction and low inventory limit the downside, but weak demand and potential import pressure restrain the rebound [4]