Group 1 - As of August 1, 2025, the main contract for Shanghai lead futures closed at 16,735 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.03% [1] - The opening price for the week was 16,960 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 17,085 CNY/ton and a low of 16,615 CNY/ton, with an increase in open interest by 3,011 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The London Metal Exchange reported lead registered warrants at 204,150 tons and canceled warrants at 72,350 tons, with total lead inventory increasing by 125 tons to 276,500 tons [2] Group 2 - A lead recycling plant in Northwest China plans to suspend production due to water resource scarcity, market downturn, and raw material shortages, which is expected to reduce national lead output by 5,000 to 10,000 tons in August [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported lead warehouse receipts at 62,360 tons, an increase of 426 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Jinrui Futures noted that domestic lead prices are following a general decline in non-ferrous metals, with limited recovery in recycled lead production and an expectation of increased consumption as the seasonal peak approaches [4] - Ruida Futures observed that despite price increases, downstream demand remains cautious, with slow inventory depletion in the lead-acid battery sector, indicating a potential for short-term price fluctuations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of lead is neutral, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic lead supply hovers at a low level, and consumption has an improvement expectation, so the price is expected to be supported. The third - quarter supply - demand contradiction of lead will gradually emerge, forming a bottom support for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash - and - carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,735 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.30%; the closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,775 yuan, with a night - session increase of 0.24%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 1,977.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 2.13%. The LME lead spread, Shanghai 1 lead spot spread, and the spread between recycled lead and primary lead all changed. The contango structure of Shanghai lead is narrowing [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 11 tons compared with the previous week, the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 29 tons, the social inventory increased by 1,600 tons, and the LME lead inventory increased by 9,050 tons. The cancellation ratio of LME lead was 26.84%, an increase of 0.02% compared with the previous week [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 47,634 lots, an increase of 871 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 76,338 lots, an increase of 3,011 lots compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 was 8,929 lots, an increase of 3,574 lots; the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate production, import volume, and consumption volume are presented in the historical data. The import TC of lead concentrate is - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. The lead concentrate production and import volume in 2021 - 2025 are shown in the charts, and the inventory in Lianyungang also has historical data [28][29] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, which will affect the production of primary lead. The historical production and weekly operating rate data of primary lead from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][35][36] - **Recycled Lead**: The recycled lead smelting profit is in a large loss. Smelting plants in Anhui, Guizhou and other regions have reduced production or controlled output. The historical production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, and profit - loss data of recycled lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6][34] - **Primary Lead By - products**: The price of 1 silver and the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, as well as the historical production data of silver by - products [40] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is expected to recover. At the end of the month, some battery enterprises conduct inventory checks, and the operating rate is slightly under pressure. However, with the approaching of the consumption peak season in August, there is an expectation of improved consumption, and enterprises may increase raw material inventory on dips. The historical data of lead - acid battery operating rate, finished product inventory days of enterprises and dealers, and export volume from 2021 - 2025 are provided [6][51] - **End - Users**: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the monthly production data of automobiles and motorcycles [53] Import and Export - The net import volume, import volume, and export volume of refined lead from 2021 - 2025 are shown, as well as the historical data of lead ingot import profit and loss [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, and the raw materials at the primary end are relatively tight, leading to a marginal tightening of the supply of primary lead ingots. At the secondary end, the raw materials remain in short supply, but the smelting start - up rate of secondary lead has increased marginally. The downstream start - up rate remains relatively high, and the domestic inventory is rising slowly. Overall, the supply of lead ingots remains loose, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly fluctuate weakly [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.07% at 16,736 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 10.5 to 1,966.5 dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 146,300 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,550 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,600 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.90%, and the factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6%. In June 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 153,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 14.9% and a month - on - month change of 2.5%. From January to June, the total production of lead concentrate was 787,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.1%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In June 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore output was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total production of lead ore was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.9%. The factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead output was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Inventory and Production**: At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead output was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,825,850 units, and the net export weight was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.1% year - on - year [41]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In June 2025, the days of enterprise finished - product inventory slightly decreased to 26 days, and the days of dealer inventory slightly increased to 39.88 days [44]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starter batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Difference**: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was an excess of 0 tons [61]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Difference**: In May 2025, the overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton [69]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton [72]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [75]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead turned to net short, the net long position of investment funds in London lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The lead market currently has no prominent contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. The supply side shows an incremental trend with the expected resumption of production of primary lead and the slow recovery of recycled lead production. The market still has expectations for the downstream consumption peak season. As the lead price drops, the downstream hedging sentiment eases, and procurement may improve. The short - term lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.30% to 16,750 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.80% to 16,955 yuan/ton, and the London lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.45% to 2,020.5 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: Relevant data shows the historical basis situation from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis of the current basis situation is provided [12]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 18, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 74.6 yuan/ton [25]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 63.37% month - on - month. Some smelters in Henan are under regular maintenance, and a smelter in North China has resumed production but not at full capacity. Some smelters in Central and East China have future maintenance plans. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in some regions has changed, with the total output increasing from 45,215 tons in the week of July 18 to 48,375 tons this week [26][33]. - **Recycled Lead**: The average price of waste batteries remained flat at 10,250 yuan/ton as of July 25. The scrap peak season has not started, and the arrival of waste batteries is still tight. The losses of recycled lead smelters fluctuated slightly. As of July 28, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 481 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 706 yuan/ton. The raw material and finished product inventories of recycled lead decreased. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 2.8 percentage points to 40.7%, and the weekly output recovered to 4.24 tons as of last Friday [40][46][49][50]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased by 0.9 percentage points to 71.86%. As the traditional peak season approaches, the production enthusiasm of electric bicycles has improved, with some enterprises' operating rates reaching about 90%. The operating rate of automotive batteries is around 70 - 80% due to weak domestic terminals and the impact of tariffs on some export orders [56]. 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of July 18, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the import profit was - 834.57 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [66]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 7.14 tons, showing an increase. Downstream procurement is mainly from primary lead smelters, and the inventory of mainstream smelters has decreased, but social inventory has increased [76]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 6.33 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the LME inventory was 26.63 tons, showing a slight decrease [79]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from April 2024 to June 2025 [80].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Macro sentiment is favorable, and lead prices may consolidate strongly [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an incremental trend as primary lead smelters resume production after maintenance and secondary lead smelters'开工 increases due to improved raw material arrivals. Meanwhile, the consumption side is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and demand is expected to improve. Considering the strong support from the raw material side and positive macro sentiment, lead prices may be strong in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 1.33% to 16,700 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.49% to 16,820 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.27% to 2,011.5 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Primary Lead - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and TC quotes are weakly stable. Smelter profits fluctuated slightly, and as of July 11, smelter profits (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 93.5 yuan/ton [31] - Primary lead 开工 rate decreased to 65.82% month-on-month. Due to the price inversion of secondary lead and delivery and position transfer, primary lead factory inventories declined [32][36] - The total weekly production of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 47,015 tons, with some fluctuations due to regular maintenance and recovery [38] 3. Secondary Lead - As of July 18, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap batteries decreased due to recyclers' fear of falling prices, but the tight supply pattern did not improve substantially [45] - As of July 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -455 yuan/ton, and that of small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -680 yuan/ton [51] - As of July 17, secondary lead raw material inventory was 146,350 tons, and finished product inventory was 20,860 tons. The finished product inventory decreased due to improved downstream purchasing sentiment and long-term order delivery [55] - Secondary lead enterprises' 开工 rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 37.9%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing an increase. The 开工 rate increased due to improved raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters as scrap battery holders sold due to fear of falling lead prices [58] 4. Lead Batteries - The 开工 rate of lead batteries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 70.96%. As the traditional peak season approaches, some enterprises reported improved orders, but high temperatures in the north affected 开工 rates. Additionally, some lead battery enterprises may face tariffs of 25 - 70% due to anti-dumping investigations, leading to pre-tariff export rush [64] 5. Import and Export - As of July 11, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the import profit was -485.5 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [74] 6. Inventory - As of July 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 69,000 tons, showing an increase. The social inventory accumulated due to the large price difference between futures and spot and position transfer and delivery by holders [83] - As of July 18, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, showing a month-on-month increase, and LME inventory was 268,400 tons, also showing an increase [86] - The monthly supply and demand balance sheet shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to June 2025 [87]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as having a "strong" outlook, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply-demand contradiction in the lead market will gradually emerge, supporting a strong price trend. The third quarter is expected to see significant supply-demand contradictions, and it is recommended to buy on dips. There are also opportunities for positive spreads in the Shanghai lead futures market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,820 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.49%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,980 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.95%. The LME lead 3-month contract was at 2,063, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. The LME lead cash-to-3-month spread increased by 9.42 to -24.2 [7] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7,183 to 60,084 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 7,186 to 62,335 tons. The social inventory increased by 7,900 to 69,000 tons. The LME lead inventory increased by 19,025 to 268,400 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 6.09% to 27.93% [7] - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 20,173 to 32,288 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2,898 to 50,581 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3-month contract increased by 3,535 to 9,912 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,583 to 136,098 lots [7] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: Domestic lead smelting has been continuously reducing production, and the lead concentrate processing fee has been continuously weakening. The spot import TC of lead concentrate is -55 US dollars/ton, and the domestic processing fee is 500 yuan/ton, both at historical lows. Some smelting enterprises in Henan are under continuous maintenance, and some smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning will enter the annual maintenance period in August [6] - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead has decreased, and recycled lead has been in continuous losses. The loss of recycled lead has widened, forcing smelters to cut production. The price of waste battery recycling is relatively firm, and recycled smelters are facing greater production pressure [6] 3. Lead Demand (Lead-Acid Batteries, End-Users) - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has risen to a relatively high level in the same period of history. The hot weather in many parts of the country has increased the replacement demand for lead-acid batteries, driving the continuous increase in the operating rate of enterprises. Although downstream enterprises have not carried out a large amount of raw material replenishment, with the continuous improvement of terminal consumption, enterprises may enter the replenishment cycle [6] - **End-Users**: The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend, and the production of automobiles and motorcycles has also increased, indicating that the demand for lead in the end-user market is relatively strong [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [4] - Option strategy: Sell put options [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and downstream battery enterprises are gradually entering the peak demand season. It is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.79/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,575 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On July 10, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,897 lots, down 2,108 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52,534 lots, up 273 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,295 yuan/ton and a low of 17,120 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex-factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes narrowed to near par with SMM1 lead, but actual transactions were scarce, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes at a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales faced difficulties in closing deals. In Yunnan, holders' quotes at a discount of 200 - 220 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales met with just the rigid demand. With a slight increase in lead futures prices, some holders were reluctant to sell and were waiting and seeing or intended to deliver to the warehouse, while downstream enterprises maintained rigid procurement, resulting in a slight decline in market transactions [3] Inventory - On July 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 61,000 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the same period last week. As of July 10, the LME lead inventory was 252,375 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1 - The overall lead price has shown a trend of rising and then falling this year, primarily due to the seasonal transition between peak and off-peak demand periods [2] - Strong downstream demand during the lead-acid battery replacement peak season around the Spring Festival has supported lead prices, alongside fluctuating US tariff policies and environmental production restrictions [2] - After April, macroeconomic factors, including unexpected US tariff policies, have dampened market confidence, leading to a decline in lead prices as downstream demand enters the off-peak season [2] Group 2 - The recent downtrend in the US dollar is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, as historical data indicates that metal prices tend to rise during dollar down cycles [3] - The current US government's policies, including repeated tariff changes and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, are increasing economic uncertainty and reducing international confidence in the dollar [3] Group 3 - Limited production capacity for primary lead is expected due to reduced overseas mining output from various mines affected by weather and operational delays [4][6] - Domestic lead concentrate production has increased significantly due to high profit margins, but the overall supply may not meet smelting demands in the medium term [6] Group 4 - The supply of recycled lead is expected to recover as seasonal demand for waste batteries increases, although supply shortages may persist due to seasonal fluctuations [7][9] - The production of recycled lead may face limitations from raw material supply constraints and environmental production restrictions, leading to a potential decrease in supply in the medium term [9] Group 5 - Demand for lead is expected to return seasonally, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old batteries, which have positively impacted sales in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors [11] - Despite a potential decline in exports due to domestic raw material supply limitations, domestic demand for lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain strong [11] Group 6 - In the medium to long term, the balance of supply and demand for lead ingots is expected to tighten, which may support an upward trend in lead prices, aided by the opening of import channels to alleviate domestic supply constraints [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] - Option strategy: Sell put options [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic lead ore supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. It is currently the transition period between the off-season and peak season. The energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and the operating rates of other battery sectors are also gradually recovering. The electrolytic lead market transactions have slightly improved [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On July 8, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$25.31/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -40 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,649 lots, an increase of 6,243 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 51,617 lots, an increase of 572 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 17,185 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 17,065 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The lead price fluctuated weakly. Sellers adjusted prices according to the market, some smelters tried to maintain prices, and downstream enterprises made purchases on a need-to basis at low prices. The electrolytic lead market transactions slightly improved [2] - In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over SMM 1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract for ex-factory, with some large-discount supplies being traded. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 20 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2508 contract had difficulty in making transactions. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to SMM 1 lead for ex-factory [2] Inventory - On July 8, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of July 8, the LME lead inventory was 258,075 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous trading day [2]