铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供应承压，但需求下滑，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16800-17400元/吨 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - From the perspective of industrial data, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased, but the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has declined, while that of secondary lead has continued to rise. The weekly start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased marginally. In terms of funds, after two consecutive weeks of decline, the lead price has returned to the oscillation center of 17,000 yuan. Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, and the short - term lead price is expected to be strong [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.77% at 17,087 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 73,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME Lead 3S rose 13 to $1,990/ton with a total position of 166,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ore in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, China's secondary lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1,614,520 units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In August 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Basis and Spread**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts [71]. - **Overseas Basis and Spread**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton [74]. - **Internal - External Spread**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Lead decreased significantly, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

沪铅弱势难改 基本面变化 加工费：2025年10月铅精矿进口量为98342吨实物量，环比下降34.69%，进口量跌至中等均值水平。国内冬季铅精矿市场需求高 涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张加剧，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步下滑。11月国内月度加工费250-350元/吨，月度环比 下降50元；进口月度加工费位-150--100美元/干吨，月度环比下降10美元。现货加工费方面，国内铅矿周度加工费为250-350元 /吨，周度环比持平；进口周度加工费为-150--120美元/干吨，周度环比持平。 供应：SMM显示10月全国电解铅产量小幅下滑，环比减少0.56%，环比上升2.66%；10月再生铅产量明显上升，环比增加9.24%， 同比去年增加11.86%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均开工率为67.7%，环比增加0.13%。上周河南地区原生铅冶炼厂产量边际 波动带来小幅增量；此前检修计划原定于11月底的华东地区某冶炼厂本周将进入常规检修，但对电解铅产线影响相对有限，或 将小幅减产。原料端压力凸显，后期原生铅开工率变化不大。SMM再生铅四省周度开工率为50.52%，环比减少2.28%。安徽地区 再生铅周度开工率变化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the delivery of the SHFE lead 2511 contract ended, some delivered lead returned to the spot market, causing lead prices to fluctuate and decline. With no obvious improvement in consumption and a slight weakening of cost - side support, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Previous short positions should pay attention to profit protection. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 17,075 yuan/ton. The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract decreased by 1.89% to 17,165 yuan/ton. The LME lead closing price (electronic trading) dropped by 3.73% to 1,989 US dollars/ton [15]. 2.1 Tight Ore Supply Pattern Persists, TC Declining - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remains unchanged, and due to the high - level volatility of precious metal prices, the TC quotation is stable but trending downwards. Smelter profits are good, and as of November 14, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 308.2 yuan/ton [38]. 2.2 Primary Lead Operating Rate Slightly Increased to 67.7% - The primary lead operating rate increased slightly month - on - month to 67.7%. The production of major deliverable brands of primary lead in China showed certain changes, with the total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelters being 49,850 tons in the week of November 14, 49,550 tons in the week of November 21, and an expected 49,650 tons this week [39][44]. 3.1 Scrap Battery Prices Weakened - As of November 21, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. During the week, lead prices fluctuated and declined, and some smelters lowered their scrap battery quotes, weakening the cost support. Considering that battery scrapping is gradually entering the off - season and the number of recyclers is decreasing, it is expected that scrap battery prices may have an upward adjustment expectation [53]. 3.1 Recycled Lead Smelter Profits Declined - As of November 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 169 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton. The decline in lead prices from a high level and the limited decline in scrap battery prices squeezed the profits of recycled lead smelters [59]. 3.2 Recycled Lead Raw Material Inventory Increased, Finished Product Inventory Decreased - As of November 20, the recycled lead raw material inventory was 158,900 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the recycled lead finished product inventory was 2,380 tons. Currently, the restarted recycled lead enterprises are still in the production ramping - up stage, and due to long - term order deliveries, the volume of spot goods is limited. Downstream enterprises maintain just - in - time replenishment, making it difficult to accumulate recycled lead finished product inventory [62]. 3.3 Recycled Lead Operating Rate Increased - The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 2.3 percentage points month - on - month to 50.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of recycled lead was 60,100 tons, showing an increase. The environmental control in Henan was lifted, and raw material arrivals improved, leading to an increase in the local operating rate. This week, considering that a smelter in Anhui needs to temporarily stop production for the replacement of its hazardous waste business license, the smelter operating rate will decline [65]. 4 Lead Battery Operating Rate Remained Stable - The lead battery operating rate remained flat month - on - month at 70.56%. There was no obvious change in the terminal market, and the battery operating rate was stable. By segment, the electric bicycle battery market weakened, the electric tricycle battery market was okay, and the automotive battery market was stable. Before the recovery of new orders, it is expected that battery enterprises will maintain a production - to - order model [73]. 5 Import Profit Window May Open - As of November 14, the refined lead export loss was about 2,900 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the import profit was 10.51 yuan/ton, and the import profit window may open [84]. 6.1 Lead Ingot Inventory Declined - As of November 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, showing a decline. The inventory of major deliverable brands of primary lead at the factory was 6,380 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. After the delivery, lead ingots returned to the spot market, and downstream enterprises made just - in - time purchases after the decline in lead prices, leading to inventory depletion [97]. 6.2 SHFE Inventory Decreased, LME Inventory Increased - As of November 21, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 38,900 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of November 20, the LME inventory was 262,850 tons, showing an increase [100]. 6.3 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet for lead from July 2024 to August 2025, including data on primary lead production, recycled lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [101].

1. Report Title and Researcher - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weakening Lead-Acid Battery Consumption, Focus on the Cost Support of Secondary Lead Smelting [1] - Researcher: Chen Hansong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 [1] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - With the increase in domestic secondary lead production and resumption, lead ingot supply has recovered. However, lead-acid battery consumption has weakened, and domestic lead ingot inventories have gradually increased. Under the pressure of the fundamentals, lead prices may be under pressure and run weakly. Recently, attention should still be paid to the support of secondary lead costs for lead prices [4] - Trading strategies include: the lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, also temporarily wait and see [4] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply Side**: This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrates reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for SMM imported lead concentrates reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market was generally stable, and the situation of tight imported ore and almost no quotes continued. In the domestic ore trading market, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places continued to purchase on demand. After the high silver price回调, except for individual mines accepting a small callback in processing fees to make up for the loss of smelter processing profits, most mines and smelters did not mention price adjustments for lead concentrate processing fees. The situation of production start decline in southern smelters in Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan and other places due to the shortage of lead concentrate supply had not eased [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average production rate of SMM's three provincial primary lead smelters was 67.7%, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with last week. The marginal fluctuation of the output of primary lead smelters in Henan brought a small increase; the production of smelters in Hunan and Yunnan remained stable, and the smelters that had not been fully produced before had no plans to increase production. A smelter in East China that had previously reduced production due to maintenance resumed production this week, and another smelter carried out scheduled maintenance as planned, with the recovery time to be determined. A smelter in East China whose maintenance plan was originally scheduled for the end of November will enter regular maintenance next week, but the impact on the electrolytic lead production line will be relatively limited, and there may be a slight reduction in production. The weekly start rate of SMM's four provincial secondary lead smelters was 50.52%, an increase of 2.28% compared with last week. The weekly start rate of secondary lead in Anhui changed little, but there was an expectation of a decline next week, mainly because a local smelter needed to temporarily stop production due to the replacement of the hazardous waste business license. The environmental protection control in Henan was lifted, the arrival of raw materials improved, and the disassembly volume of waste lead-acid batteries increased; coupled with the resumption of production of a small and medium-sized smelter after shutdown, the regional start rate increased by 7.11%. The production situation of smelters in Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia changed little [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive start rate of SMM's five provincial lead-acid battery enterprises was 70.56%, basically stable compared with last week. Recently, the terminal consumption performance of the lead-acid battery market had no significant changes, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries had weakened, while that of electric tricycles was okay. In addition, the lead price increased in early November, and leading enterprises notified plans to raise battery prices, prompting dealers to receive goods on demand, and the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was stable. The automotive battery market was in a state of waiting for the traditional peak season. Previously, due to the increase in lead prices, dealers received goods on demand at the beginning of November, but there were no obvious signs of improvement in the terminal market. Some enterprises had actively reduced production in November. Therefore, before new orders recovered, major enterprises would maintain the production mode based on sales [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five places reached 37,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons compared with November 13; a decrease of 900 tons compared with November 17 [4] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The lead price may fluctuate weakly in a range [4] - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] 4.1.2 1.2 - 1.5 Other Sub - sections - These sections mainly list the data items to be analyzed, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][14] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - This chapter lists the data items related to raw material supply, including primary raw material supply (global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, etc.) and secondary raw material supply (prices of lead-containing waste, raw material inventories of secondary lead smelters, etc.), but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [19][23][27] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - This chapter lists various data items related to the smelting end, including global and domestic refined lead balance, imports and exports, profits of primary lead smelting enterprises, supply of primary and secondary lead, and total domestic lead ingot supply, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [34][41][42] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - This chapter lists the data items related to demand, including lead-acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, automobiles, motorcycles, power, and communications, but specific data analysis content is not provided in the given text [68][71][76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures continued to decline from a high level. The US November non - farm payroll data was postponed, increasing the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December and causing the US dollar to rise, which suppressed risk assets. After a large - scale delivery in LME, the inventory increased to over 260,000 tons, cooling down the enthusiasm of long - position funds and leading to an adjustment of lead prices at home and abroad. [3][6] - The supply of lead ore remained tight, and the low TC situation would persist for a long time. The price of waste batteries was stable with a slight downward trend. The profit of secondary lead refineries decreased, and some refineries reduced their production enthusiasm, with the possibility of new production cuts. [3][6] - On the smelting side, primary and secondary lead refineries had both production cuts and restarts. The overall refinery operating rate was expected to remain stable. On the demand side, the consumption of electric bicycles weakened, but large battery enterprises still maintained an operating rate of over 80%, and the overall demand for raw materials remained stable. [3][6][7] - Overall, the uncertainty of interest rate cuts dampened market optimism, and the large - scale delivery in LME affected long - position funds. The tight raw material supply, the increased expectation of production cuts due to compressed profits of secondary lead refineries, and the insignificant inventory accumulation provided support for lead prices. However, it was difficult to significantly boost demand in the off - season. In the short term, the market sentiment was cautious, and it was expected that Shanghai lead would weakly seek support, and attention should be paid to the performance near the lower integer - value levels. [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | 11/14 | 11/21 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,495 | 17,165 | - 330 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,066 | 1,989 | - 77 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.47 | 8.63 | 0.16 | | | SHFE Inventory | 42,790 | 38,921 | - 3,869 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 222,475 | 262,850 | 40,375 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 35,900 | 39,400 | 3,500 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 190 | - 145 | 45 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - The main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures declined from a high level, testing the support of the lower moving averages, with a weekly decline of 1.94%. On Friday night, it continued to be weak. The LME lead price also dropped significantly from a high level, affected by large - scale delivery and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the reduced expectation of interest rate cuts in December, with a weekly decline of 3.73%. [5] - In the spot market, as of November 21, the price of lead in the Shanghai market was 17,145 - 17,195 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2512 contract. As lead prices continued to weaken, sellers lowered their premium quotes, and the discount of the supply from electrolytic lead plants narrowed. However, due to the falling lead prices, downstream enterprises were more hesitant, and the spot market trading became lighter. [5] - In terms of inventory, as of November 21, the LME weekly inventory was 262,850 tons, an increase of 40,375 tons from the previous week. The SHFE inventory was 38,921 tons, a decrease of 3,869 tons from the previous week. As of November 20, the social inventory in five regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from Monday and an increase of 2,800 tons from last Thursday. After the delivery of the current - month contract, some downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the inventory first increased and then decreased. [6] Industry News - As of the week ending November 21, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining unchanged from the previous week. [8] - In October, the import volume of lead concentrates was 98,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.8%. The import volume of silver concentrates was 149,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 18,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.77% and a year - on - year increase of 79.18%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,981 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37% and a year - on - year increase of 43.74%. [8] - A secondary lead smelting enterprise in East China was expected to shut down for the next two months due to the expiration of its hazardous waste business license and the pending approval, which might slightly weaken the weekly operating rate next week. [8]

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：再生供应增加，且炒作题材弱化，价格偏弱震荡 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16900-17400元/吨 沪铅12合约持仓库存比处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 25 pb2412.shf pb2508.s ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant. After the departure of the previous main long - position holders, the lead price is still oscillating within a wide range. Given the recent weak performance of major global financial assets, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.31% at 17,165 yuan/ton, with a total single - sided trading position of 75,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 17.5 to 1,997.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total global lead ore production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Material Inventory and Output**: At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's recycled lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33] - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16,145,200 units, and the net export weight of batteries was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43] - **Inventory Changes**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand provide support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [77] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead turned to a large net short position. The net long position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bearish [80]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 下游维持刚需采购 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-20，LME铅现货升水为-27.39美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17125 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至17125元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-20，沪铅主力合约开于17300元/吨，收于17220元/吨，较前一交易日变化-30元/吨，全天交易日 成交37231手，较前一交易日变化-8977手，全天交易日持仓60285手，手较前一交易日变化-3610手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17320元/吨，最低点达到17195元/吨 ...

专题报告 2025-11-20 铅：原料紧现货松，仍在宽幅区间内 张世骄 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 当前原生冶炼开工高位但原料紧缺，再生冶炼利润抬升推动再生铅锭放量，下游蓄企抬高电池 售价需求边际好转。国内外铅锭现货边际转松，月差回落。在国内冶炼厂冬季备库结束前，沪 铅主要矛盾仍然集中于原料端的紧缺和下游蓄企采买的抬升。近期美联储官员表态边际转鹰， 贵金属及有色金属情绪退潮，沪铅主力多头快速减仓，沪铅前 20 净持仓由多转空。铅价仍在 16300-17800 区间内呈现宽幅震荡态势，预计铅价近期自区间上沿向下偏弱运行为主。 有色金属研究 | 铅 资料来源：钢联数据、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 铅：原料紧现货松，仍在宽幅区间内 原生端：开工高位但原料紧缺 原生端，由于白银和硫酸价格的强势运行，冶炼副产品给原生铅冶炼厂带来了较高的收益，高 含银铅精矿格外紧俏。2025 年下半年，贵金属价格一路上行。矿山希望从白银价格上涨中分享 部分 ...