1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price, with tight supplies of lead concentrates and waste batteries. The supply of electrolytic lead is increasing steadily, while consumption is in the off - season, which is the biggest negative factor for the lead market. Considering the tight supply of raw materials, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.50% to 16,400 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 1.42% to 16,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic trading) decreased by 1.50% to 1,964 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic lead price basis and the LME lead price basis showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [13][18]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, with no obvious change in the supply - demand situation at the mine end, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of May 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [25]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased to 69% month - on - month. Some smelters in different regions had maintenance plans or production recovery situations [26][31]. - The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered showed certain changes in different regions, with a total output of 50,185 tons in the week ending May 30 [33]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials + Poor Demand, Low Operating Rate of Secondary Lead - As of May 30, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton. The profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises were - 570 yuan/ton and - 787 yuan/ton respectively [41][46]. - As of May 30, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 146,300 tons, and the finished product inventory was 20,900 tons. Due to losses, smelters held back goods, resulting in inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down [50]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 3.3 percentage points to 40% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 43,200 tons. However, due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, the probability of smelters suspending production and maintenance in the future increased [53]. 3.4 Decline in the Operating Rate of Lead - Acid Batteries - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 2.21 percentage points to 79.45% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season consumption and holidays, the operating rate of batteries declined. Currently, the inventory of dealers has decreased, but they still maintain a cautious attitude and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [57]. 3.5 Closure of Import - Export Profit Windows - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 642.79 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Accumulation of Social Inventory - As of June 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 49,900 tons, an increase in inventory. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and month - end inventory checks, downstream purchases were weak, leading to the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory [72]. - As of May 30, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 46,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the LME inventory was 286,200 tons, also showing a decrease [75]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import and export, consumption, and inventory changes of primary lead and secondary lead from February 2024 to April 2025 [76].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs and the cooling inflation and economic slowdown in the US increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, improving market risk appetite, and the lead price followed the non-ferrous sector to run strongly. Fundamentally, primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, with supply mainly recovering. In the off-season of consumption, the supply of waste batteries did not improve significantly, the procurement cost of recyclers increased, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some previously减产 secondary lead smelters in Guangxi and Jiangsu restarted production, but under the background of raw material shortage and poor profits, smelters mostly operated at low loads, and the supply did not recover significantly. However, after the lead price rebounded, the profits of enterprises were repaired, and the expectation of a further expansion of production cuts weakened. On the consumption side, lead-acid batteries remained in the seasonal off-season, mostly digesting inventory and mainly making rigid purchases. Overall, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and the macro sentiment weakened marginally. Currently, the cost side supports the lead price, but consumption remains in the off-season. The rebound of the lead price repairs the profits of secondary lead smelters, the expectation of an expansion of production cuts weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, suppressing the lead price trend. In the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, the lead price trend is stalemated, and it maintains a high-level consolidation operation [3][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,805 yuan/ton to 16,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,985.5 US dollars/ton to 2,006 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.05; the SHFE inventory increased from 49,504 tons to 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 253,425 tons to 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons; the social inventory increased from 47,500 tons to 56,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated horizontally around 17,000 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. The concern about the US economic recession eased, the pressure on risk assets weakened, and LME lead continued to rebound, but the rebound pace slowed down near 2,000 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,006 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, as of May 16th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,935 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract; the price of Honglu lead was 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. Sellers sold goods according to the market, a few enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the quotation changed from a discount to a premium. The ex-factory price of electrolytic lead smelters' factory-picked goods remained at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, and the secondary refined lead was quoted at a discount of 120 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases and preferred large-discount goods with low prices [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and -30 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat compared to the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai-London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory situations, 1 lead premium and discount situations, LME lead premium and discount situations, primary lead and secondary refined lead price differences, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profit situations, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss situations [10][11][15][16][18][21][22][24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price as the global lead concentrate supply has long - term incremental expectations but short - term uncertainties, and the supply of scrap batteries is tight [3]. - On the supply side, primary lead supply is stable with a slight increase due to the resumption of previously - shut - down refineries, while secondary lead production cuts are expanding because of raw material shortages and high costs [3]. - The demand side is in the off - season, with battery distributors and producers being cautious in lead ingot purchases, and spot transactions moving towards discount trading [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, secondary lead producers hold back goods or quote high due to cost pressures, and inventory accumulation may slow down as production cuts expand. Primary lead holders actively sell [3]. - In the short term, the lead price is expected to remain range - bound between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials and the macro - environment on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.89% to 16,625 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.53% to 16,805 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.54% to 1,981.5 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of April 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues) was - 37.48 yuan/ton [32]. - The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 67.35%. Some refineries have maintenance plans [33][39]. - The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 49,995 tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period [40]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials, Further Expansion of Secondary Lead Production Cuts - As of May 9, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous period. The supply of scrap batteries was tight, and the procurement prices of secondary lead refineries were high [48]. - As of May 9, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 653 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 878 yuan/ton [54]. - As of May 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 105,900 tons, and the finished product inventory was 17,400 tons. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [58]. - The secondary lead operating rate decreased by 4.81 percentage points to 37.65%. The weekly output decreased, and some refineries were forced to shut down due to raw material shortages [61]. 3.4 Post - holiday Resumption of Work and Production, Off - season Situation Remains Unchanged - The lead battery operating rate increased by 9.73 percentage points to 64.79%. After the May Day holiday, battery enterprises resumed work, but the off - season situation continued, and new orders were weak [71]. 3.5 Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of April 30, the refined lead export loss was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the import profit was - 623.9 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [83]. 3.6 Social Inventory Accumulation - As of May 8, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 47,500 tons, an increase in inventory. Weak demand and the expansion of the futures - spot price difference led to an increase in the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse [89]. - As of May 9, SHFE refined lead inventory increased to 49,500 tons, and LME inventory decreased to 253,400 tons [92]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of lead from February 2024 to March 2025 [93].

Report Information - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Cost Support vs. Weak Demand, Lead Price Ranges Consolidate [1] - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The global lead concentrate supply is expected to increase in the long - term, but there is short - term uncertainty, with the mine end in tight balance and stable TC. Tight scrap battery supply strongly supports lead prices [2]. - Primary lead production increases as previously - shut - down smelters resume operations, while secondary lead production decreases significantly due to raw material shortages and high costs. This supports lead prices, but the off - season consumption and approaching May Day holiday limit price increases. The lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with attention to raw material and macro factors [2]. - Lead batteries for electric bicycles and cars are in the off - season. Distributors mainly make just - in - time purchases and consume existing inventories. Producers are cautious in buying lead ingots, preferring low - priced sources [2]. - Secondary lead producers hold back inventory due to cost pressure and losses, while primary lead holders actively sell and reduce premiums at the end of the month and before the May Day holiday, leading to a decrease in social inventory [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price rose 0.45% to 16,875 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price rose 0.30% to 16,845 yuan/ton; London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose 1.20% to 1,945 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis between different contracts (e.g., continuous one - continuous two) is presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the summary part [15]. 2. Primary Lead Production Changes - **TC and Smelter Profit**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 650 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profit (excluding by - product revenue) reached 28.23 yuan/ton as of April 18 [27]. - **Production Capacity and Output**: The primary lead production capacity utilization rate increased by 2.98 percentage points to 66.23%. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises increased in some regions due to the resumption of previously - shut - down production in Henan, while some maintenance was postponed [28][36]. 3. Secondary Lead Production Changes - **Scrap Battery Price and Profit**: As of April 25, the average scrap battery price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. Tight supply led to price increases and strong hoarding sentiment. Large - scale secondary lead enterprises had a comprehensive profit of - 563 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale enterprises had - 794 yuan/ton [45][51]. - **Inventory and Production**: Secondary lead raw material inventory decreased to 129,600 tons, and finished product inventory increased to 12,740 tons as of April 25. The secondary lead enterprise production capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 61.18%, and weekly production declined [54][55]. 4. Consumption - **Battery Production Capacity Utilization**: The lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased by 1.06 percentage points to 73.56%. Despite the off - season, overall production remained high, and producers preferred deeply - discounted lead ingots [64]. 5. Import and Export - **Profit Window**: As of April 17, refined lead export suffered a loss of about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of April 28, the import profit was - 545.42 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [76]. 6. Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of April 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 46,200 tons, showing a decrease. The preference for primary lead in downstream purchases led to inventory reduction, but the process may slow down during the May Day holiday [86]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of April 25, SHFE refined lead inventory was 45,700 tons, showing a decrease; LME inventory was 274,100 tons, also decreasing [91]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows data on primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from January 2024 to March 2025 [92].

Core Viewpoint - Lead prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the Shanghai lead index closing up 0.08% at 16,944 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - As of last Friday, the London lead price increased by 12.5 to 1,950.5 USD/ton, with total positions at 148,500 lots [1] - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,875 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, resulting in a price difference of 25 CNY/ton [1] - The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,400 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded lead ingot futures inventory at 38,000 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 48,800 tons [1] - LME lead ingot inventory stood at 277,900 tons, with 161,300 tons in canceled warrants [1] - The cash-3S contract basis was -21.19 USD/ton, and the 3-15 price difference was -70.3 USD/ton [1] Production and Demand - The primary smelting operating rate was recorded at 66.23%, with primary ingot factory inventory at 13,000 tons [1] - Recycled lead inventory was 76,000 tons, with weekly production of recycled lead ingots at 38,000 tons and factory inventory at 19,000 tons [1] - The operating rate of lead-acid batteries was 73.56% [1] Market Outlook - Overall, lead ore inventory is increasing, primary production remains high, and scrap inventory is limited, leading to pressure on recycling profits and some reduction in output from recycling plants [1] - The lead ingot factory inventory accumulation is faster than previous years due to extended holidays [1] - The mid-term outlook for the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,300 to 17,800, with short-term lead prices showing a weak oscillation [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].