1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - **Date**: October 17, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Views - Copper is expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties [8]. - Lithium carbonate is predicted to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan, with short - term supply - demand balance and continued inventory reduction, but facing increasing macro risks [25]. - Aluminum is likely to remain high - level volatile, affected by macro emotions and the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, with the import window closed [41][45]. - Nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged and the price under pressure, supported at the 120,000 - yuan level [74][79]. - Zinc will operate with a weak and volatile trend, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with overseas low - inventory providing support and domestic weak fundamentals restricting the rebound [104][105]. 4. Summary by Metal Copper 4.1.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 82,300 and 86,830 yuan, with total positions decreasing by about 5.5% to 546,000 lots. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions and market sentiment [7]. - LME copper traded between 10,463 and 10,864.5 US dollars. As of October 10, the net long positions of funds increased by about 5% to 59,179 lots [7]. 4.1.2 Operation Suggestion - Copper prices will continue to be supported by fundamentals but face increasing macro uncertainties, and are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern next week [8]. 4.1.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports increased, and the import of copper concentrates and its ores in August 2025 increased. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [11][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly开工 rate of scrap copper rods and refined copper rods increased. The开工 rate of wire and cable and enameled wire also rose, but the new orders of enameled wire have not fully recovered [15][17]. - **Spot**: Domestic copper inventories increased by 1.84 to 275,000 tons, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 0.72 to 97,700 tons. LME + COMEX inventories increased by 2,701 tons to 450,000 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate 4.2.1 Market Review - The futures price of lithium carbonate decreased, with the main contract trading between 71,800 and 76,840 yuan, and total positions increasing by 10.7% to 755,000 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate moved up, and the market trading activity was flat [24]. 4.2.2 Operation Suggestion - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to grow, and the demand shows obvious peak - season characteristics. The fundamentals support lithium carbonate, but considering the increasing macro risks, the main contract is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan [25]. 4.2.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 21,066 tons, and the production from various raw material sources increased. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica increased [25][30]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of battery cells also moved up, and the demand in the battery field is growing [31][34]. - **Spot**: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons [35][36]. Aluminum 4.3.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, maintaining a high - level volatile pattern, mainly affected by macro emotions. The futures price of alumina followed the sector down, and the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory in the peak season continued to decline [41]. 4.3.2 Operation Suggestion - Wait for the callback to buy, and pay attention to controlling risks. The price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable, the price of alumina is under pressure, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminum [45]. 4.3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite market is stable, with supply being temporarily tight in some areas. The price of imported bauxite continues to decline [46][47]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina continues to fall, with an oversupply situation. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the import window is open [49][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost decreased slightly this week, and the profit increased slightly [57]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of aluminum profiles increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [64][65]. - **Processing**: The operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises remained flat this week, showing a general performance in the peak season [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly [71]. Nickel 4.4.1 Market Review - Shanghai nickel continued to move in a low - level volatile pattern, affected by macro factors. The futures market maintained a contango structure, and the import window remained closed [74]. 4.4.2 Operation Suggestion - Shanghai nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged. Pay attention to overseas market changes and policy disturbances in Indonesia [79]. 4.4.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased [80]. - **Nickel Iron**: In September, the production of Indonesian nickel iron increased year - on - year, and the production of domestic nickel iron decreased. The import of nickel iron increased [86][89]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowinning nickel is rapidly expanding. In September, the production of refined nickel increased slightly, and the downstream demand was less than expected [91][92]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts continued to rise this week. In September, the production of nickel sulfate increased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in October [95][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of stainless steel increased this week, and the market demand is weak, with the futures price falling [101]. Zinc 4.5.1 Market Review - The US dollar index continued to weaken, and LME zinc had strong short - term bottom support. Shanghai zinc gave back the post - holiday gains, and the import window has been deeply closed since July [104]. 4.5.2 Operation Suggestion - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and is expected to operate with a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage and the actual export volume [105]. 4.5.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The processing fee of domestic zinc ore has peaked and declined. The production of refined zinc in October is expected to increase month - on - month, and the import window remains closed while the export window is approaching to open [115][116]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanized, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased to some extent, but the terminal demand is still weak [117][118]. - **Spot**: Domestic zinc inventories decreased by 0.04 to 162,700 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased to less than 40,000 tons [119].

Core Viewpoint - Yahua Group (SZ 002497) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting between 320 million to 360 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 106.97% to 132.84% [1] Financial Performance - The basic earnings per share are estimated to be between 0.2776 yuan and 0.3123 yuan [1] - The increase in performance is attributed to stable orders from high-quality clients and positive market feedback for certain end products, leading to a substantial increase in lithium salt product sales in the third quarter [1] - The company has improved operational efficiency by enhancing control over production processes and balancing mining, production, and sales, resulting in a recovery in business performance compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, Yahua Group's revenue composition is as follows: lithium industry accounts for 51.54%, civil explosives production for 42.81%, and transportation services for 5.66% [1] Market Capitalization - As of the report date, Yahua Group's market capitalization stands at 17.3 billion yuan [1]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [1][13] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons, mainly due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [1][13] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 53.04%, with expectations of further increase to 58.13% next week [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [2][14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [2][14] - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, affected by weak demand and unclear orders [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [3][15] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a consensus to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [3][15] - The U.S. government shutdown impacted economic data release and public services, affecting market sentiment [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89%, while the strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to enhanced control measures [4][31] - The sector is expected to experience a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" trend, with potential price increases as supply reforms take effect [4][31] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][31] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering [4][32] - The implementation of stricter fire-resistant standards may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][32] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and recovering demand [4][32] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16%, supported by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining [4][33] - The current inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a strong support for tin prices [4][33] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to demand from AI and photovoltaic sectors [4][33] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [5][59] - Lithium production increased to 20,600 tons, with expectations of further supply growth [5][59] - Downstream demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage remains strong, supporting price stability [5][59] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price surged by 17.8% to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by supply concerns and rising demand [5][61] - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation due to tight supply and high demand [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated due to ongoing supply constraints from Congo [5][61] Group 9: Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [5][62] - Nickel inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 237,400 tons, raising concerns about supply stability [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to conflicting supply and demand signals [5][62]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The eight - department plan aims to increase resource exploration and reserve for non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026, which will have a balanced impact on nickel prices. The overall consumption of non - ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with some sectors facing challenges and others having potential for improvement [43][45][55] - The copper market is affected by factors such as Grasberg's production decline, Congo - Kinshasa's smelter reduction, and domestic production issues, leading to a tight supply situation. The consumption is weak, but the bullish trend is strengthening [2][3][4] - The alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the price rebounds slightly before the holiday, it is expected to remain weak due to the open import window and fundamental oversupply [8][12][13] - The aluminum market shows short - term shock due to factors like US economic data, domestic inventory changes, and consumption uncertainty, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up after the holiday [14][17][18] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by factors such as tight waste aluminum resources and extended holidays of downstream enterprises, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [21][23][25] - The zinc market has potential production reduction in mines in October, with an expected increase in domestic refined zinc supply. The consumption is expected to remain weak, and the overseas de - stocking may support the price [30][31][33] - The lead market has a tight balance in the lead concentrate supply, with expected production increase in regenerated lead. The consumption in the peak season is under - performing, and the price may decline [37][40] - The nickel market has a surplus of refined nickel, but the price is affected by factors such as the plan and downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to import and inventory changes [43][45] - The stainless steel market has increased production in September, but the demand has not shown seasonal characteristics. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [47][48] - The tin market has a tight supply in the mining end, weak demand, and a high - level shock is expected [54][56][57] - The industrial silicon market may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered after the correction [63][64][65] - The polysilicon market may have a short - term decline, and long positions can be re - entered after sufficient correction during the holiday [66][67] - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and gradually narrowing supply growth. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The spot premium was stable, and the inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons [2] - **Important Information**: Policies encourage resource exploration and utilization, and Argentina approves a copper project. The supply is expected to increase during the holiday, while the demand will weaken [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Grasberg's production decline and other factors lead to tight supply, and the consumption is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - long strategy for long - positions, hold cross - market positive spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2,904 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased in various regions [7] - **Related Information**: Policies guide project layout, production capacity utilization rate changes, and raw material prices decline [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The policy has limited impact on production capacity expectations, and the price is restricted by import and oversupply [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [14] - **Related Information**: US economic data is released, inventory decreases, and the photovoltaic installation shows a downward trend [14] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term price is in shock due to economic data and inventory changes, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be shock - weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [18][19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [21] - **Related Information**: Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry, warehouse receipts increase, and downstream enterprises' holiday arrangements change [21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The price is restricted by tight raw materials and extended holidays of downstream enterprises [23][25] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell to 21,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased [29] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and a mining company obtains a new mining license [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The mine production may decrease in October, and the refined zinc supply may increase [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell to 16,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [36] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and the production and consumption of lead - related industries change [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate is in tight balance, and the consumption in the peak season is under - performing [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline [40] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 fell to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed [42] - **Related Information**: Policies and a mining right auction affect the market [43] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by policies and consumption trends, with a surplus of refined nickel [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [44] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell to 12,760 yuan/ton, and the spot price range is given [47] - **Important Information**: India approves steel certifications [48] - **Logic Analysis**: The production increases, but the demand has not shown seasonality, and it is expected to shock at a high level [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [49][50] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2511 contract closed at 272,410 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52] - **Related Information**: US policies and economic data, and industry development plans are announced [54][55] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and options should be on the sidelines [57][58] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 8,610 yuan/ton, and the spot price of some grades decreased [61][62] - **Related Information**: The export volume increases [63] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The inventory structure may cause feedback, and the price may correct in the short - term [64] - **Strategy**: The price may correct in the short - term, and long positions can be entered after the correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit, and no arbitrage opportunity [65] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [66] - **Related Information**: A research shows the feasibility of EU's solar component production [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The spot price is stable, but there is pressure on the contract due to warehouse receipt cancellation, and the demand is expected to weaken [67] - **Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term, exit long positions first, and re - enter after sufficient correction. Do reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose to 73,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Projects in Argentina and China are progressing, and policies are announced [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is strong, and the supply growth is narrowing, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [73] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and sell out - of - the - money put options [74] Second Part: Non - Ferrous Industry Prices and Related Data - Multiple tables and figures present daily data and price trends of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, premiums, spreads, inventory, and production profits, comparing data from different dates and showing changes compared to the previous weekend and the end of the previous month [77][88][104]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The copper market is expected to transition from a tight balance to a shortage due to frequent supply disruptions, with prices likely entering an upward cycle. Recent price changes for copper include +2.08% for LME copper, +3.20% for SHFE copper, and +2.89% for COMEX copper. The Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, has faced production halts, with Freeport estimating a recovery to pre-accident production levels by 2027, leading to a projected 35% decrease in copper production in 2026 compared to previous expectations. Domestic copper inventories are decreasing, with LME, COMEX, and SHFE inventories at 144,000 tons, 322,000 short tons, and 99,000 tons respectively, showing changes of -2.2%, +1.7%, and -6.7% [6][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic indicators show that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than expected, with 218,000 claims reported against an expectation of 235,000. The core PCE price index for August matched expectations at 2.9% [10]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among Shenwan sectors. The copper, copper products, and cobalt sectors showed the most significant gains, while other small metals and aluminum sectors lagged behind [12]. 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE ratio for the Shenwan non-ferrous metals sector is 24.83, with a weekly change of 0.63. The PB ratio is 2.97, with a weekly change of 0.08. The non-ferrous sector's PE ratio is 112% of the overall A-share market, while the PB ratio is 165% [21][24]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased, with LME copper up 2.08% and SHFE copper up 3.20%. Copper inventories decreased by 2.20% for LME and 6.65% for SHFE. The smelting fee is reported at -40.3 USD/ton, with copper smelting margins at -2701 CNY/ton [26][39]. 5. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell by 1.36%, while SHFE aluminum prices decreased by 0.22%. The inventory situation shows a 0.74% increase in LME aluminum stocks and a 2.43% decrease in SHFE stocks. The price of alumina dropped by 2.15% [39]. 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 0.14% to 73,600 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 0.23% to 857 USD/ton. The lithium supply chain is entering a destocking phase due to increased demand [79]. 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt up 3.22% to 16.83 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rising by 14.80% to 318,000 CNY/ton. The Democratic Republic of Congo is set to implement a cobalt export quota system, which may lead to a tightening of supply and further price increases [92].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the cobalt and lithium industries, focusing on market dynamics, price trends, and supply chain issues related to cobalt and lithium production and consumption. Cobalt Industry Insights - **Congo's Cobalt Quota Policy**: The quota policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is likely to be postponed rather than implemented directly due to the new mining minister's short tenure and cobalt prices not meeting expectations. This has led to a 7-month restriction on domestic cobalt raw material imports, expected to continue until Q1 next year, resulting in tight domestic cobalt supply [1][2]. - **Cobalt Inventory**: Domestic cobalt raw material inventory is relatively sufficient at approximately 80,000 tons, but it is concentrated among a few leading companies, making it susceptible to price manipulation. The inventory of cobalt sulfate and cobalt tetroxide is decreasing, indicating strong demand from downstream ternary materials and consumer electronics, which may drive cobalt prices up [1][4]. - **Production Growth**: Domestic production of ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide has significantly increased, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 44%, respectively. The demand is expected to rise further due to consumer subsidy policies and the traditional peak season [1][5]. - **Price Dynamics**: The price of electric cobalt is expected to stabilize between 250,000 to 300,000 CNY per ton. If the DRC policy is postponed again, cobalt prices may rise above 300,000 CNY, with some companies predicting prices could reach 350,000 to 400,000 CNY [3][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The steel and hardware sectors have paused pricing, indicating a market sentiment of reluctance to sell and expectations of price increases. The price of electric cobalt has lagged, while cobalt sulfate and cobalt tetroxide prices continue to rise, reflecting differing market dynamics for various cobalt products [6]. Factors Influencing Cobalt Prices - **Key Drivers**: The speed of electric cobalt inventory digestion is a crucial driver for cobalt price increases in the short term. In the medium to long term, the DRC's implementation of a quota system is inevitable, which will support high cobalt prices. However, the quota must align with the growth rate of downstream demand [7]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources are expected to benefit from rising cobalt prices due to their wet-process nickel production capabilities in Indonesia, which includes abundant associated cobalt resources. Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt are also noteworthy, as they rely on DRC raw materials but have sufficient inventory to benefit from price increases in the short term [8][9]. Lithium Industry Challenges and Opportunities - **Supply Dependence**: The lithium industry faces challenges due to insufficient anti-involution logic, with China's lithium supply relying heavily on overseas sources. The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, with Australian lithium production capacity clearing slowly and South American salt lake production being released at a slow pace [10]. - **Price Trends**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply from below 60,000 CNY to around 90,000 CNY but have since adjusted. Various factors, including high costs and production challenges in Australia and South America, are influencing these price movements [10]. - **Regional Developments**: In Sichuan, lithium project construction is slow, limiting supply growth in the near term. In Jiangxi, the market is affected by the recent suspension of production at a major lithium mine due to permit issues, which may disrupt supply and impact lithium prices [11][12]. Future Price Predictions - **Lithium Price Outlook**: Future lithium prices are expected to stabilize between 70,000 to 90,000 CNY, with 70,000 CNY seen as a potential bottom price. The market is unlikely to see prices drop significantly below this range due to the balance of supply and demand dynamics [16][17]. Recommended Stocks - **Investment Opportunities**: Key lithium stocks to watch include Zhongmin Resources, Yongxing Materials, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium. Zhongmin Resources, in particular, has undergone a detailed fundamental review and held a recent conference call for investors to gain insights [18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium industry is primarily concentrated in Australia, South America, and China, with Australia being the largest supplier of spodumene, mainly managed by foreign investments, while Chinese companies participate through equity investments [1][2] - African lithium mining, led by Chinese investments, has seen significant progress and cost reductions, becoming a major supply source, which has changed market perceptions regarding its legitimacy and cost-effectiveness [1][4][6] Key Insights and Arguments - African lithium mining costs have been decreasing, moving into the middle range of the cost curve, despite lithium extraction from salt lakes still holding a cost advantage [1][6] - The lithium carbonate price has reached a temporary bottom, with potential for a 50% increase in the future, suggesting a long-term investment perspective is advisable [3][14] - The lithium industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% until 2025, driven by demand from solid-state batteries, robotics, and low-altitude economies [3][12] Regional Supply Dynamics - In South America, Argentina's lithium extraction projects are fragmented, with few companies in production due to high-altitude challenges, while Chile relies on SQM's Salar de Atacama project, which has a capacity of 240,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent but lacks short-term expansion plans [7] - China's lithium supply is heavily reliant on overseas sources, with 70% coming from abroad. Domestic production is primarily from Jiangxi, Sichuan, and Qinghai, facing various challenges such as permit changes and slow expansion [8][9][10] Cost and Production Challenges - Different extraction methods impact costs significantly, with spodumene being the most viable, while lepidolite and clay remain unprofitable under current market conditions [4] - The extraction of lithium from African mines has shown resilience despite geopolitical risks, with ongoing operations in Mali and new projects in Hainan [6] Future Trends and Recommendations - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve over the next three years, even with a potential oversupply in 2026, as many mines are not operating at full capacity [13] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with growth potential and operational flexibility, such as Ganfeng Lithium and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company [14][23] Additional Considerations - The impact of government policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo on cobalt prices could indirectly affect lithium market dynamics, as cobalt is a critical component in battery production [20][22] - The long-term outlook for lithium prices suggests a potential revisit to lower levels in 2026, but with limited downside risk due to constrained supply [22] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the lithium industry's current state and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries has demonstrated resilience in the lithium industry by turning a profit in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit of 84.41 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year, despite challenges from lithium price fluctuations and industry cycles [1][3] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant year-on-year improvement in net profit [1] - Factors contributing to the improved performance include reduced pricing mismatch in lithium product sales, increased investment income from SQM, and a rise in foreign exchange gains due to currency fluctuations [1] Business Development - Tianqi Lithium is focused on expanding production capacity, with the completion of a 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide project in Jiangsu and ongoing construction of a lithium concentrate plant in Australia [2] - The total production capacity of the Greenbushes lithium concentrate plant is expected to reach 2.14 million tons per year upon completion [2] Industry Outlook - The lithium industry is experiencing a divergence in performance among A-share listed companies, with leading firms like Tianqi Lithium stabilizing profits while others face declines due to cyclical pressures [2] - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, and increased competition poses new challenges for companies in the sector [2] Innovation and R&D - The company has adopted a dual-driven strategy of "R&D + Innovation Incubation," resulting in the acquisition of 286 authorized patents by mid-2025 [3] - Tianqi Lithium's new research institute focuses on breakthroughs in next-generation high-performance lithium battery materials and is also working on resource utilization and lithium extraction technologies [3][4] Technological Advancements - The company has completed experimental verification of new lithium negative electrode preparation technology and is advancing the construction of a pilot line for lithium sulfide production [4] - The development of lithium sulfide technology is seen as a key factor in enabling the industrialization of solid-state batteries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium industry in A-shares is experiencing performance divergence among listed companies due to cyclical fluctuations, with leading companies showing positive results while others struggle [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Cangge Mining achieved a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium reported a reduction in losses year-on-year for the first half of the year [1] - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit ranging from 0 to 155 million yuan, indicating a potential turnaround [1] - Shengxin Lithium still reported a loss of 841 million yuan, with losses widening compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated between 60,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton in the first half of the year due to supply-demand mismatches [2] - Cost control has become increasingly important, with Cangge Mining citing it as a key driver of performance [2] - The competition in the lithium industry is expected to intensify, with low-cost technologies like salt lake lithium extraction providing significant advantages [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - Companies are enhancing competitiveness through vertical integration and innovation, with Ganfeng Lithium expanding its lithium resource projects in Argentina and Mali [3] - Tianqi Lithium has completed a research institute focused on next-generation lithium battery materials and is advancing various lithium projects [3] - Future trends in the lithium industry include upstream concentration of resource control, vertical integration of the supply chain, and a shift towards high-performance, high-value-added products [3]