Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" market investment prosperity indicator, which aims to identify investment opportunities in industries that can become market investment main lines, based on the phenomenon of industry rotation in the A-share market [1][5] - The strategy combines three major dimensions: investment prosperity, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment prosperity indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to construct positive and negative screening factors, capturing the marginal upward beta factor and the super-expected report factor while preventing trading overheating [5][6] Strategy Performance - In October, the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment prosperity long portfolio achieved a return of 0.40%, while the analyst expectation indicator long portfolio returned 1.19%, closely matching the benchmark return of 1.06% [2][11] - The volume-price indicator performed exceptionally well, with a long portfolio return of 3.29%, resulting in an excess return of 2.23% [2][11] - The comprehensive "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio yielded a return of 2.56%, with an excess return of 1.50% [2][11] Latest Recommendations - Based on the latest data, the top recommended industries for November according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model include computer, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [3][19] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, commercial retail, banking, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, and home appliances as the leading industries [3][19] Industry Scores and ETF Recommendations - The report provides detailed scores for recommended industries, with non-bank financials scoring 1.00, commercial retail 0.97, and banking 0.93 under the "Expectation Resonance" composite indicator [19] - Corresponding ETFs for the recommended industries include various options for computer, petroleum, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [20]

Group 1 - The current index level is more favorable than in 2015, with significantly lower valuation levels, suggesting that there is no need to overly focus on the index points themselves [1] - Structural opportunities still exist in various sectors such as new energy, chemicals, consumer electronics, resources, and machinery, despite short-term investor caution primarily in the technology sector [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural adjustment, with a focus on traditional manufacturing upgrades, Chinese companies going abroad, and edge AI [1] Group 2 - The overall growth is entering a recovery cycle, with improvements in net profit margins and a broadening of growth across sectors due to accelerated overseas expansion and the resolution of internal competition [2] - The third quarter saw a continued recovery in performance for non-financial sectors, with large and mid-cap stocks showing greater earnings elasticity [2] - Certain industries, such as new technology and global pricing resources, are in a recovery and expansion phase, while others face excess pressure [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation and adjustment, with a potential shift in market style and themes [4] - The electronic industry and growth style have reached historically high levels of allocation, which may trigger structural adjustments [4] - Key sectors to focus on include coal, oil and gas, new energy, non-bank financials, public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [4] Group 4 - The external environment has improved with the recent US-China trade talks, alleviating market concerns about external uncertainties [5] - Macro policies are expected to continue to strengthen, creating a favorable environment for the A-share market [5] - The focus for investment should be on technology companies with real technological barriers and sectors benefiting from domestic consumption [5] Group 5 - The focus of the market is shifting towards internal structural optimization following the completion of the third-quarter reports [6] - The consensus reached in US-China trade discussions, along with a mild recovery in overseas demand, is expected to boost domestic export-related sectors [6] - Key sectors to watch include AI, software, power, energy storage, and emerging themes like controlled nuclear fusion and commercial aerospace [6] Group 6 - The market is likely to experience a period of volatility and consolidation in the short term, with a more optimistic long-term outlook [7] - The current economic growth targets and stable policy environment are expected to support further market gains [7] - Attention should be given to low-base sectors that may release greater elasticity in the coming year, particularly in cyclical and consumer areas [7] Group 7 - The market is undergoing a rebalancing phase, with a high concentration of holdings in the TMT sector and improvements in capital returns for various industries [8] - The focus is shifting from excitement over capital expenditure to skepticism about its expansion, with a notable shift in AI investments towards traditional industries [8] - Opportunities exist in upstream resources and sectors benefiting from domestic price stabilization and economic recovery [8] Group 8 - The technology growth sector is experiencing a slowdown in short-term over-allocation, leading to increased volatility [9] - The TMT sector's allocation by funds has reached historical highs, indicating a strong focus on this area despite potential fluctuations [10] - The market may see a transition in style as it approaches a clearer economic recovery phase, with a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors [11]

Group 1 - The current index level is not as critical as the underlying quality of the market, with structural opportunities still present despite short-term fears in the technology sector [1] - The overall growth is entering a recovery phase, with improvements in net profit margins across various sectors, particularly in emerging technologies and cyclical industries [2] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with a potential shift in investment styles as the year-end approaches [4] Group 2 - The focus is shifting towards internal structural optimization following the completion of the third-quarter reports, with an emphasis on sectors like AI and export-related industries [6] - The technology sector remains a key investment theme, although short-term volatility may increase due to adjustments in fund allocations [8] - The outlook for the market remains optimistic in the medium to long term, supported by stable policies and a recovering economic environment [9]

Group 1 - The current index level is not as critical as the underlying quality of the market, with structural opportunities still present despite short-term fears in the technology sector [1] - The overall growth is entering a recovery phase, with improvements in net profit margins across various sectors, indicating a broadening of growth opportunities [2] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation, with a potential shift in investment styles as the year-end approaches [4] Group 2 - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions have alleviated external uncertainties, contributing to a positive outlook for the A-share market [5] - The focus is shifting towards internal structural optimization, with an emphasis on sectors like AI and emerging technologies for medium-term growth [6] - The market is likely to see increased volatility in the technology sector due to high allocation levels and potential style shifts [11] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain a bullish trend, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment and ongoing policy support [10] - There is a notable concentration of fund holdings in technology and growth sectors, indicating strong investor interest despite potential risks [8] - The recovery in profitability is expected to solidify the bull market, with a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors for future growth [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that after the previous upward momentum in the A-share market has been exhausted and three major favorable factors were realized at the end of October, the market is facing pressure from emotional decline, a lack of favorable news, and a need for adjustment and consolidation [1] - The report predicts that the market will undergo a new round of sideways adjustment in November, suggesting that investors should pause on increasing positions [1] - The report highlights three main investment directions: "economic recovery indicators, year-end portfolio adjustments, and short-term sector rotations" [1] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on include coal, oil and petrochemicals, new energy (such as energy storage and solid-state batteries), non-bank financials (including brokerage and insurance), public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [1]

- The non-bank financial sector confirmed an upward trend on the daily chart, while the retail sector experienced a downward trend on the daily chart[1][8][28] - The A-share prosperity index stood at 20.44 as of October 31, 2025, up 15.01 from the end of 2023, indicating an upward cycle[2][31] - The A-share sentiment index signals for bottom and top were both empty, with the overall signal being empty[2][39] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio underperformed the benchmark by 0.54%, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 0.59%[2] - The Beta factor showed higher excess returns among style factors, while growth exhibited significant negative excess returns[2][58] - High-leverage stocks performed well recently, while factors such as residual volatility and non-linear market capitalization performed poorly[2][58] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a relative excess return of 51.82% since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73%[47] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a relative excess return of 39.01% since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[53] - The market's preference for high Beta stocks led to better performance in indices like CSI 500 and ChiNext, while indices like SSE Composite and SSE 50 performed poorly in style factors[65]

Core Insights - A-share companies' profits showed a year-on-year growth of 5.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, with non-financial profits increasing by 1.7% [2][5][25] - The third quarter saw a significant improvement in profit growth across various sectors, with non-financial net profits rising by 11.4% year-on-year, compared to 3.8% in the second quarter [2][5][7] Performance Growth - A-share companies' net profits for the first three quarters of 2025 were 5.4% for all A-shares, 9.5% for financials, and 1.7% for non-financials [5][25] - In Q3 2025, the net profit growth for non-financial sectors was 11.4%, with a notable improvement from Q2 [2][7] - The revenue for non-financial sectors increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in profit margins [2][5] Industry Performance - The number of industries with profit improvements increased, with 48 industries (37% of total) reporting a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 20% [15][19] - The TMT sector, non-ferrous metals, and certain midstream industries performed well, reflecting the positive impact of policy shifts [15][19] - The energy and raw materials sector saw a decline in profit share from nearly 40% in 2022 to 30.5% in Q3 2025 [13][19] Economic Segmentation - New economy sectors showed a profit growth of 12.1% year-on-year in Q3, while traditional sectors experienced a reduced decline of -2.1% [11][19] - Upstream, midstream, and downstream profit growth rates were 4.0%, 10.3%, and -3.1%, respectively, indicating a recovery in upstream profits [16][19] - The performance of the consumer sector was weak due to policy rollbacks and weak demand, with significant declines in various sub-sectors [17][19] Profit Quality - A-share non-financial ROE stabilized in Q3 2025, with a slight increase compared to Q2, indicating potential stabilization after a prolonged decline [25][26] - The cash flow situation showed improvements, with operating cash flow remaining at a high level, supporting dividend certainty for A-share companies [31][33] - Non-financial companies' free cash flow to equity ratio maintained at around 5.2%, providing a solid foundation for dividends [33]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" signals increased reform and innovation, suggesting medium-term upward momentum in the market, despite short-term liquidity concerns at year-end[3] - Focus on sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year" industrial guidance and Q3 performance, particularly technology growth (AI, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals) and advanced manufacturing (new energy)[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (002675.SZ) has a market cap of 12.2 billion CNY, with a TTM PE of 73.3, driven by ongoing innovation and clinical trials[4] - Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) leads in high-end semiconductor equipment with a market cap of 187.9 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 98.2, benefiting from increased product delivery[11] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH) has a market cap of 553.7 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 233.9, positioned well in the AI and domestic substitution trends[19] - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) focuses on AI, with a market cap of 1548.3 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 50.7, showing strong revenue growth of 38.4% YoY[27] - Penghui Energy (300438.SZ) leads in small-scale energy storage with a market cap of 24.5 billion CNY, benefiting from rising demand and price improvements[35] - Jinfeng Technology (002202.SZ) has a market cap of 66.2 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 26.1, with improving margins in wind turbine manufacturing[42] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) has a market cap of 369.8 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 19.3, with copper prices expected to rise[50] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) has a market cap of 40.6 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 13.5, with significant growth in overseas operations[57] - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) has a market cap of 342.5 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 7.6, noted for its high dividend yield and resilient asset performance[64] - Shanghai Bank (601166.SH) has a market cap of 13.4 billion CNY and a TTM PE of 5.6, recognized for its stable asset quality and dividend value[73]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality financial services to support the real economy, driven by government policies aimed at enhancing financial strength and development [5][4] - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the invasive fungal disease diagnostics market, with a projected increase from 240 million yuan in 2018 to 3.03 billion yuan by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 23.5% [8] - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is approaching a turning point, with recommendations for various companies based on their strategic directions and market positions [15][13] Industry Commentary - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a policy-driven push for high-quality development, focusing on enhancing financial services for key areas such as technology innovation and small enterprises [4][5] - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with expectations of price stability in the short term due to reduced production and inventory pressures [12][14] - The report notes that the invasive fungal disease's incidence is rising, necessitating early diagnosis, which is increasingly facilitated by serological testing methods [8] Company Commentary - Dana Biologicals is recognized as a national-level specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprise, focusing on the development and sales of diagnostic products for invasive fungal diseases [8] - The company has shown a strong competitive advantage in the invasive fungal disease diagnostics field, supported by a robust R&D team and multiple technology platforms [8] - JuJiao Co., Ltd. reported record high performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.78%, driven by strategic sales initiatives and product upgrades [11][7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Stock Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model is based on the comprehensive judgment of economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - **Construction Process**: - Construct timing factors from two core dimensions: economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - Factors include PMI YoY smoothed value, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount cumulative YoY, CPI YoY smoothed value, and new medium and long-term loans cumulative value YoY[19] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using CSI 800 total return as the benchmark[19] - **Evaluation**: The model effectively captures stock market cycles, avoiding downturns[21] 2. Model Name: Bond Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model analyzes from the perspective of monetary liquidity supply and demand[23] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include DR007, SHIBOR, and social financing scale stock YoY smoothed value[24] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if short-term average < long-term average} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using ChinaBond Treasury Total Net Price Index as the benchmark[24] - **Evaluation**: The model captures bond market trends, minimizing drawdowns[25] 3. Model Name: All-Weather Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The model adjusts risk budgets for different assets based on timing signals[17] - **Construction Process**: - Use a risk parity model to allocate risk contributions of assets[30] - Adjust risk budgets based on stock and bond timing signals[32] - Optimize the model: $$ \begin{array}{c} \min \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( RC_i - b_i \sigma_p \right)^2 \\ \text{s.t.} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \omega_i = 1 \\ 0 \leq \omega_i \leq 1 \end{array} $$ - Backtest using a combination of CSI 800, ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index, CSI Convertible Bond Index, S&P 500 ETF, and AAA Credit Bonds[31] - **Evaluation**: The strategy provides higher absolute returns while controlling risk[38] Model Backtest Results Stock Timing Model - Annualized Return: 14.1%[21] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.4%[21] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.7%[21] - Monthly Win Rate: 56.7%[21] Bond Timing Model - Annualized Return: 2.3%[25] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Monthly Win Rate: 68.3%[25] All-Weather Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.1%[38] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.1%[38] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.0%[38] - Maximum Drawdown: 2.6%[38] - Sharpe Ratio: 2.04[38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value-Growth Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic recovery, liquidity, and market sentiment[47] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, M2 YoY smoothed value, social financing YoY smoothed value, medium and long-term loan growth YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[48] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the National Growth Index and National Value Index[48] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of value and growth styles[47] 2. Factor Name: Size Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic prosperity, liquidity, and market sentiment[55] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, gold daily return rate, government bond yield, credit spread, M1 YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[56] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the CSI 300 Index and CSI 1000 Index[57] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of large-cap and small-cap styles[55] Factor Backtest Results Value-Growth Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[51] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.7%[51] - Excess Annualized Return: 7.5%[51] - Monthly Win Rate: 60.2%[51] Size Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[59] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 0.1%[59] - Excess Annualized Return: 9.0%[59] - Monthly Win Rate: 58.3%[59] Industry Rotation Solution 1. Factor Name: Macro Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on the second-order changes in economic growth and liquidity[67] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include PMI, social financing scale, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, CPI, M2 growth rate, 10-year government bond yield, and credit spread[70] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[73] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the marginal inflection points of macro trends[67] 2. Factor Name: Fundamental Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations[79] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry component stock median, industry profitability, and industry consensus profit expectations[79] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[82] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the core of industry prosperity[79] 3. Factor Name: Technical Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns[87] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry index relative excess return IR, leading stock sharp ratio, and K-line pattern score[89] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[96] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the technical evaluation of industry trends[87] 4. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction proportion[100] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry financing buy amount, industry turnover rate, and industry transaction amount proportion[101] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[104] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the crowding level of industries[100] Industry Rotation Backtest Results Macro Factor - Annualized Return: 42.9%[73] - Benchmark Annualized Return: -22.8%[73] - Excess Annualized Return: 65.7%[73] Fundamental Factor - Annualized Return: 11.3%[85] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[85] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.5%[85] - IC Mean: 8.2%[85] Technical Factor - Annualized Return: 9.7%[97] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[97] - Excess Annualized Return: 6.9%[97] - IC Mean: 8.2%[97] Crowding Factor - Annualized Return: -2.9