Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing significant yield increases, with the 20-year government bond yield reaching a historic high of 3.165% and the 10-year yield at 2.18%, the highest since February 1999, amid speculation regarding the dissolution of the House of Representatives and upcoming elections [1] Group 1 - The yield on newly issued 20-year Japanese government bonds has risen to 3.165%, marking a historical peak [1] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has increased to 2.18%, the highest level since February 1999 [1] - Speculation surrounding the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the potential for elections is exerting pressure on the market, leading to weaker trends in Japanese government bond futures [1]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.180, UK 4.398, France 3.521, Germany 2.846, Italy 3.478, Spain 3.241, Switzerland 0.238, Greece 3.339, Japan 2.165, Brazil 6.217, China 1.849, Australia 4.708, New Zealand 4.430 [1] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.535, UK 3.651, Germany 2.091, Japan 1.156, Italy 2.192, China (1Y yield) 1.238, Australia 4.035 [1] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.374, South Africa zar 16.402, Korean won 1475.800, Thai baht 31.470, Malaysian ringgit 4.058 [1] - The latest values of on - shore RMB 6.978, off - shore RMB 6.974, RMB central parity rate 7.010, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.853 [1] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6963.740, Dow Jones Industrial Index 49191.990, Nasdaq 23709.870, Mexican stock index 66337.420, UK stock index 10137.350, France CAC 8347.200, Germany DAX 25420.660, Spanish stock index 17687.100, Japanese Nikkei 53549.160, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 26848.470, Shanghai Composite Index 4138.758, Taiwan stock index 30707.220, Korean stock index 4692.640, Indian stock index 8948.303, Thai stock index 1235.300, Malaysian stock index 1708.200, Australian stock index 9138.494, emerging - economy stock index 1472.290 [1] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3551.450, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 266.768, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.510, US high - yield credit - bond index 2929.010, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 412.600, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1827.282 [1] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4138.76, down 0.64%; CSI 300 closing price 4761.03, down 0.60%; SSE 50 closing price 3132.93, down 0.34%; ChiNext closing price 3321.89, down 1.96%; CSI 500 closing price 8143.28, down 1.28% [2] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.46 with a - 0.02环比 change, SSE 50 is 12.06 with a 0.02环比 change, CSI 500 is 36.99 with a - 0.30环比 change, S&P 500 is 27.81 with a - 0.06环比 change, Germany DAX is 19.72 with a 0.01环比 change [2] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.58 with a 0.01环比 change, Germany DAX is 2.22 with a - 0.01环比 change [2] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is - 1924.09, main - board is - 1247.76, ChiNext is - 520.43, CSI 300 is - 396.75; the 5 - day average values are - 535.55, - 523.98, - 16.96, - 212.50 respectively [2] Group 3: Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 36509.85 with a 496.09环比 change, CSI 300 is 8010.55 with a 11.01环比 change, SSE 50 is 1888.53 with a - 9.49环比 change, small - and - medium - sized board is 7490.48 with a 266.95环比 change, ChiNext is 10777.19 with a - 81.07环比 change [3] - Main contract basis: IF basis is - 2.43 with a - 0.05% amplitude, IH basis is 4.67 with a 0.15% amplitude, IC basis is - 12.08 with a - 0.15% amplitude [3] - Treasury futures: T2303 closing price is 107.85 with 0.00% change, TF2303 closing price is 105.63 with 0.00% change, T2306 closing price is 107.78 with 0.02% change, TF2306 closing price is 105.61 with - 0.01% change [3] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.4719% with a - 5.00 BP daily change, R007 is 1.5746% with a 5.00 BP daily change, SHIBOR - 3M is 1.6000% with a 0.00 BP daily change [3]

Group 1 - The 5-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to its highest level since its first issuance in 2000, reaching 1.615% after an increase of 1.5 basis points [1][2] - Reports regarding Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's plans to hold early elections have intensified market concerns about the country's fiscal situation [1][2]

Market Overview - On January 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.6%, the STAR 50 dropped by 2.8%, the CSI 1000 declined by 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.96%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.9% [4][5]. - The best-performing sectors on January 13 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.62%), Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology (+1.21%), Nonferrous Metals (+0.91%), Media (+0.67%), and Banking (+0.65%). The worst-performing sectors included Defense & Military (-5.5%), Electronics (-3.3%), Telecommunications (-2.88%), Computers (-1.92%), and Building Materials (-1.87%) [4][5]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on January 13 was 36,988 billion, with a net inflow of 1.296 billion HKD from southbound funds [4][5]. Important Insights - The report maintains the view from December 7, 2025, regarding interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rates, suggesting they may remain in a "dilemma" state. Market sentiment towards the trajectory of CD rates has become more optimistic [6]. - Key questions addressed include the impact of the appreciation of the RMB on the interbank funding environment and the extent of credit growth in January 2026 [6]. - The report emphasizes that the interbank CD rates may continue to face challenges [6]. Industry Analysis - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization process, with isostatic pressing equipment identified as a core incremental segment that addresses the "solid-solid" interface impedance issue [7]. - The market size for isostatic pressing equipment is projected to exceed 6 billion by 2030 [7]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies that focus on breakthroughs in isostatic technology and the realization of orders [7]. - Catalysts for growth include policy reviews by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, cost reductions, and order fulfillment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic bond market has shown a clear differentiation after the New Year, with interest rate bonds experiencing upward pressure on yields while credit bonds have seen yields decline, creating a "weak interest rate, strong credit" scenario [1] Group 1: Credit Bonds Performance - Credit bonds have strengthened due to increased demand from institutional investors, with significant net purchases observed from various asset management institutions, including 49.3 billion yuan from wealth management, 36.8 billion yuan from insurance, and 206.6 billion yuan from money market funds between January 4 and 9 [3] - The demand for credit bonds is supported by favorable policy changes, such as the revised regulations on redemption fees for bond funds, which have alleviated redemption pressures that had been present since September 2025 [3] - The inherent advantages of credit bonds in a low-interest-rate environment have made them attractive as safe assets for investors [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Bonds Performance - Interest rate bonds have weakened due to supply pressures and a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with a significant portion of government bonds scheduled for issuance in January being long-term, which has directly suppressed yields [4] - The strong performance of the equity market post-New Year has led to a diversion of funds away from the bond market, exacerbating the decline in interest rate bonds [4] - Marginal improvements in the economic fundamentals, such as a rebound in the manufacturing PMI to 50.1% in December 2025, have weakened the rationale for investing in bonds, as inflation expectations rise [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term differentiation in the bond market is expected to continue, with credit bonds likely to remain dominant in the near term [6] - Analysts predict that the market may mirror the early 2025 trends, with potential for a temporary recovery in interest rates, but long-term challenges remain due to rising inflation and debt management pressures [7] - Investment strategies should focus on high-yield, short to medium-term credit bonds, particularly those rated AA or above, while being cautious of low-rated long-duration bonds due to potential widening of credit spreads [8]

第 538 期 2026-01-13 焦点关注 河南省政府国资委与河南能源、中国平煤神马集团签署增资协议 1月13日，平煤股份公告，收到控股股东中国平煤神马集团书面通知，河南省政府国资委与河南能源集 团、中国平煤神马集团于1月13日正式签署《中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司增资协议》。 根据协议约定，河南省政府国资委以其持有的河南能源集团100%股权，按照经评估的公允价值对中国 平煤神马集团增资。增资完成后，河南能源集团将成为中国平煤神马集团的全资子公司。 国债期货多数上涨 1月13日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.28%报111.35元，10年期主力合约涨0.06%报 107.85元，5年期主力合约涨0.04%报105.625元，2年期主力合约持平于102.33元。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅波动，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率持平报1.964%，10年期国债"25附 息国债16"收益率下行0.75BP报1.8625%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.05BP报 2.2915%。 宏观动态 央行开展3586亿元7天期逆回购操作，净投放3424亿元 公开市场方面，央行公告称， ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market landscape is shifting, and investors are advised to focus on key industries and quality core assets for long-term strategies [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - In 2026, technology and healthcare sectors are expected to remain critical anchors for asset allocation due to their core driving positions in global AI applications and public demand [1] - The value of investment-grade bonds and traditional safe-haven assets like gold should not be overlooked, as they enhance the overall risk resilience of investment portfolios in volatile environments [1][3] Group 2: Technology Sector Analysis - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 technology sector is 40 times, similar to the internet bubble period, but with significant differences in cash flow and profitability [2] - Current technology stocks have a much higher free cash flow compared to the internet bubble era, with solid revenue growth and sustainable business models [2] - The average return on equity for current tech companies is significantly higher than in the past, indicating strong support for profitability despite high stock prices [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The compound annual growth rate of M2 money supply from 2021 to 2025 is 4%, while the technology stock index's growth rate is only 20%, reflecting a more rational investor behavior compared to the past [2] - The concentration of the top five technology stocks in the U.S. market is 28%, higher than the 21% during the internet bubble, yet the current average return on equity is much stronger [2]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed signs of recovery with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.79% and the ESG 300 index increasing by 3.17% during the week of January 5-9, 2026[5] - The average daily trading volume across the A-share market was approximately 52.3 billion RMB, indicating a loosening of liquidity[5] ESG Fund Issuance - No new ESG fund products were issued in January 2026; however, a total of 184 ESG public fund products were issued in the past year, amounting to 70.809 billion units[7] - The total net asset value of existing ESG fund products reached 1,167.513 billion RMB, with ESG strategy funds accounting for the largest share at 45%[7] Green Bond Issuance - In January 2026, 32 ESG bonds were issued, totaling 21.1 billion RMB; over the past year, 1,241 ESG bonds were issued, amounting to 1,359.1 billion RMB[13] - The total outstanding ESG bonds in China reached 3,898, with green bonds making up 62.3% of the total outstanding amount of 5.77 trillion RMB[13] Trading Activity - The total trading volume of ESG green bonds for the week of January 5-9, 2026, was approximately 604.5826 billion RMB, with the interbank bond market accounting for 75.69% of the total trading volume[15] - Repo transactions dominated the trading activity, comprising 95.04% of the total trading volume during the same week[15] Bank Wealth Management Products - In January 2026, 24 ESG wealth management products were issued, primarily focused on pure ESG and social responsibility themes[17] - The total number of existing ESG bank wealth management products reached 1,212, with pure ESG products making up 53.96% of the total[17] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for ESG initiatives, lack of standardized data reporting, and lower-than-expected product issuance volumes[21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On January 12, the liquidity tightened, with major repo rates rising; the entry of allocation funds intensified, leading to a stronger bond market; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds increasing; the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends, and the 10-year government bond yields of major European economies generally declined [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Four departments formulated the "Working Measures for Strengthening the Layout Planning and Investment Guidance of Government Investment Funds (Trial)" and the "Administrative Measures for the Evaluation of Government Investment Fund Investment Directions (Trial)" to guide government investment funds to support the construction of a modern industrial system [3]. - The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China emphasized six key tasks in 2026, including promoting financial reform and opening up, and advancing the internationalization of the RMB [3]. 3.1.2 International News - U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, causing international oil prices to rise briefly [4]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On January 12, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and international natural gas prices turned up. WTI February crude oil futures rose 0.64%, Brent March crude oil futures rose 0.84%, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 6.78% [5]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On January 12, the central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.1 billion yuan after 50 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [7]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On January 12, the liquidity tightened, and major repo rates rose. DR001 rose 5.43bp to 1.327%, and DR007 rose 1.75bp to 1.490% [8]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: As the 10-year Treasury bond yield reached around 1.90% on January 12, allocation funds entered the market, driving the bond market stronger. By 20:00, the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond active bond 250016 fell 1.50bp to 1.8710%, and the yield of the 10-year CDB bond active bond 250215 fell 0.60bp to 1.9640% [10]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 26Nongfa01 (Increment 2) and 25Nongfa23 (Increment 17) was provided, including issuance scale, winning yield, and other data [11]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On January 12, the transaction prices of 4 industrial bonds deviated by over 10%. "H1 Bidi 01" fell over 98%, "H1 Bidi 03" fell over 90%, "H1 Bidi 04" fell over 47%, and "H1 Bidi 02" rose over 360% [12]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced events such as loan repayment extensions, bank loan defaults, and equity freezes [15]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On January 12, the three major A-share indices rose collectively, and the main convertible bond market indices also rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 1.37%, 1.37%, and 1.27% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 108.474 billion yuan [14]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Jin 05 Convertible Bond will be listed on January 14. Taifu Convertible Bond announced no early redemption, and Sailong Convertible Bond is expected to trigger the early redemption clause [21]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On January 12, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across different tenors showed divergent trends. The 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 3.54%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 1bp to 4.19%. The 2/10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield spread widened by 1bp to 65bp [18][19]. - **European Bond Market**: On January 12, the 10-year government bond yields of major European economies generally declined. The 10-year German government bond yield fell 3bp to 2.80% [22]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese dollar bonds as of the close on January 12 were provided, including information on bonds of companies such as New Lake (BVI) 2018 Holdings and Huazhu Group [24].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives on the opening day of the National Assembly on the 23rd, leading to concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation and resulting in a decline in bond prices and a depreciation of the yen in the financial markets [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The Tokyo bond market experienced a sell-off of long-term government bonds, causing a sharp rise in long-term bond yields [1] - The yield on the newly issued 10-year government bonds reached 2.16%, the highest level since February 1999 [1] - The depreciation of the yen against the US dollar saw it drop to 158.97 yen per dollar, compared to around 147 yen per dollar in early October last year [1] Group 2: Political Context - Concerns are heightened as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) does not hold a majority in the House of Representatives, raising fears that a victory in the upcoming elections could further support Takashi's expansionary fiscal policies [1] - Analysts suggest that the market remains highly vigilant regarding the dissolution of the House of Representatives due to potential fiscal risks associated with the LDP's policies [1]