Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: The international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospects in the US, where the corn excellent rate remains good and the weather is favorable for growth. In the domestic market, the corn supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of shipments by some traders in the Northeast and continuous auctions of imported corn. Meanwhile, downstream demand is weak, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises is relatively sufficient, leading to a generally weak corn futures price [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The supply pressure has significantly weakened as the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 17885 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 152541 hands, down 500 hands; the main contract CS - C spread is 380 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 14811 hands, up 3275 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn is 411 cents/bushel, down 2.75 cents; the total position is 1575283 contracts, up 81613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2401.37 yuan/ton, down 1.38 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1928.7 yuan/ton, down 4.44 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main contract is 46 yuan, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively; the predicted sowing areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The corn inventory at southern ports is 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports is 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the starch enterprise weekly inventory is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons [2]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons, up 4060 tons [2]. - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.92%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.91%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 6.92% and 6.91% respectively, down 2.64% and 2.65% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, with a month - on - month increase of less than 1% and a slight decrease compared to June last year [2]. - As of July 30, the corn harvest progress in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 88.0%, 4% higher than a week ago [2]. - As of the week of July 27, 2025, the excellent rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year [2].

Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on soybean futures, focusing on the market trends, fundamental analysis, and future outlook of soybeans in July 2025 [3][9]. Market Trends Domestic Market - In July, the domestic soybean meal futures (Lianbo) showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main 09 contract closed up 1.32% for the month [3][9]. International Market - The external CBOT soybean futures showed a weak trend, closing down 3.63% in July. The favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the promising prospect of a bumper harvest were the main reasons for the pressure on both domestic and international markets [3][9]. Differentiation - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the domestic and international markets showed differentiation, with the domestic Lianbo being more resilient than the external US soybeans [3][9]. Fundamental Analysis Global Situation - In the 25/26 season, US soybeans are in the growing stage. The planting progress is relatively fast, and there are currently no opportunities for weather - related speculation. As of the week of July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 67% in the same period last year, and the currently predicted yield of 52.5 bushels per acre is the highest in history [11]. - According to USDA planting area data, the planting area this year is 83.4 million acres, a 4% decrease from 87.05 million acres last year. Due to the reduction in the planting area, the USDA predicts that the US soybean production this year may decrease by 860,000 tons year - on - year [11]. - The USDA's adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit this year is expected to start from the August supply - demand report. Weather is the main factor affecting the yield. Currently in the weather - speculation window period, the rainfall in the growing areas may decrease in the next two weeks, so continuous tracking of the weather changes in the growing areas is needed [11]. Chinese Market - From January to June 2025, the cumulative arrival of imported soybeans in China was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase compared with the same period last year. Due to the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, the soybean imports in May and June increased significantly. According to Mysteel data, the expected arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is 10.6925 million tons and 7.6 million tons respectively, and the overall supply is still abundant [2][15]. - On the demand side, as of August 1, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 8.05 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The operating rate of domestic oil mills remained at a high level, the inventory pressure continued to increase, and oil mills generally urged customers to pick up goods. However, the downstream demand has slightly improved, the amount of soybean meal used by feed enterprises has increased moderately, the inventory digestion has accelerated, and the inventory shows a downward trend [2][15]. Future Outlook - Currently, the domestic spot market is still digesting the pressure of the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, while the futures market mainly trades US soybeans. This year, the US soybean planting progress is fast, and there are no opportunities for weather - related speculation for now. The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, compared with 68% in the same period last year. At present, a bumper harvest of US soybeans is expected, but due to tariff policies, the uncertainty of importing US soybeans still exists [2][19]. - Under the pressure of global supply abundance, the CBOT soybean futures fell below the 1000 mark last month. Considering cost support, it is expected that there may still be fluctuations around the integer mark in the short term. The domestic Lianbo is relatively more resilient than the external market and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be focused on the guidance of the USDA's August forecast data on the US soybean yield per unit [2][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply in the US, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small fluctuating increase due to a single supply source, and it may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves substantially [3]. - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot end may start to destock at the end of September [5]. - The EPA policy, the expected B50 policy in the long - term, and the limited supply of Southeast Asian palm oil have raised the annual operation center of oils and fats. However, as of now, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still bearish factors [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline. With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline is relatively high [12][13]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline. The downstream consumption is average, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the short - term trend is bearish [15][16]. - The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week, but the increase may be limited due to the large inventory [18]. - The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The market supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybean is in a low - valuation and oversupplied state. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single supply source. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation [3][5]. - **Weather**: The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts at low levels [5]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil in June showed a downward trend, while the production in July increased year - on - year. The export of Indonesian palm oil from January to June increased by 2.69% year - on - year, and the average export price increased by 22.2% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the center of the oils and fats market. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, considering the high valuation and other factors, it should be regarded as a volatile market [10]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to decline on Friday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July increased by 15.07% year - on - year, and the estimated net sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will increase by 3.9 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in imported sugar supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline on Friday. The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the cotton commercial inventory decreased compared with last week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the situation of Sino - US economic and trade talks and the fundamentals, the short - term trend of cotton is bearish [16]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: The domestic egg price continued to decline over the weekend. The supply is large, but the demand from traders has increased. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise this week [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is large, and the near - month short positions can continue to squeeze the premium. In the medium - term, short positions can be established after the price rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price declined over the weekend. The supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the current market situation continues to decline [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction. The forward contracts have higher valuations. The monthly spread may show a positive structure for near - term contracts and a reverse structure for far - term contracts. More attention should be paid to the opportunities in monthly spreads [22].

1. Investment Ratings - The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views 2.1. Oil and Fat Industry - Palm oil prices are under downward pressure due to declining export data and potential increases in production and inventory. Domestic palm oil is expected to have a phased adjustment, with attention on the 8800 yuan support level. - Soybean oil prices are affected by the unoptimistic outlook for US soybean exports in the fourth quarter and good weather in the US Midwest, which strengthens the expectation of a bumper harvest. However, cost support and increasing demand may limit the decline in prices and the basis quote. - Overall, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate and rise [1]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The pig spot market has stabilized, but short - term prices are still not optimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation. The spot is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - month 09 contract. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and while blind short - selling is not recommended, the impact of hedging funds should be noted [3]. 2.3. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn market's rise and fall are limited, and the market will maintain an interval - oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy auctions. In the long term, the supply in the third quarter is tight, which supports prices, while the supply in the fourth quarter may be loose [5]. 2.4. Sugar Industry - Internationally, there is no new driving force for the sugar market. The Brazilian sugarcane yield and quality in June decreased, and the market speculates that India may have a bumper harvest and export. The short - term price of raw sugar is expected to have a bottom, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents/pound. Domestically, the import volume in June increased, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish after a rebound [8]. 2.5. Meal Industry - The US soybean market is weak due to the lack of positive news and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Brazilian soybeans are relatively firm, and the pressure on US soybeans is significant. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is rising, and the short - term supply is sufficient. However, there are concerns about future supply after October. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, while the weakening of demand is weakening marginally. The short - term domestic cotton price is expected to oscillate within an interval, and the price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects the egg production rate. The demand for eggs is expected to first decrease and then increase this week. Next week, the egg price in some areas may decline, but then there may be an increase in demand and an upward space for the spot price. The futures price remains weak due to production capacity [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1. Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1. Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8380 yuan, down 40 yuan (-0.48%); the futures price of Y2509 was 8192 yuan, down 48 yuan (-0.58%); the basis of Y2509 increased by 8 yuan (4.44%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 13709 (-100%). - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan, down 70 yuan (-0.78%); the futures price of P2509 was 8900 yuan, down 82 yuan (-0.91%); the basis of P2509 increased by 12 yuan (150%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9600 yuan, down 80 yuan (-0.83%); the futures price of OI2509 was 9510 yuan, down 111 yuan (-1.15%); the basis of OI2509 increased by 28 yuan (52.54%); the warehouse receipt remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2. Spread Changes - The rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 40 yuan (-3.17%); the soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30 yuan (5.26%) in the spot market and 34 yuan (4.58%) in the 2509 contract [1]. 3.2. Pig Industry 3.2.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of the main contract decreased by 220 yuan (-1.56%); the 9 - 11 spread increased by 220 (733.33%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 7850 (-14.80%). - Spot: Pig prices in various regions increased, with the largest increase of 400 yuan in Henan [3]. 3.2.2. Industry Indicators - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 200 (-0.37%); the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.1 (-0.48%); the self - breeding profit decreased by 28.7 yuan (-31.61%); the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 52.7 yuan (-282.58%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows increased by 10,000 (0.02%) [3]. 3.3. Corn Industry 3.3.1. Corn - Futures: The price of corn 2509 decreased by 24 yuan (-1.04%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan (-15.96%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2500 (-1.60%). - Spot: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan (-0.43%); the north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan (-111.11%); the import profit decreased by 29 yuan (-6.58%); the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 152 (70.70%); the trading volume increased by 50092 (3.18%) [5]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Futures: The price of corn starch 2509 decreased by 23 yuan (-0.86%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4 yuan (-4.60%); the spread between starch and corn increased by 1 yuan (0.27%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 2573 (-100%). - Spot: The prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged; the basis increased by 23 yuan (766.67%); the profit in Shandong increased by 20 yuan (16.67%); the open interest increased by 4920 (1.79%) [5]. 3.4. Sugar Industry 3.4.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 11 yuan (-0.19%); the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.11 cents (-0.67%); the 1 - 9 spread remained unchanged; the main contract's open interest decreased by 21949 (-7.92%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 47 (-0.24%). - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 20 yuan (-0.33%); the price in Kunming increased by 20 yuan (0.34%); the basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan (-3.66%); the basis in Kunming increased by 31 yuan (40.79%) [8]. 3.4.2. Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the sales volume increased by 152.10 million tons (23.07%); the industrial inventory decreased by 32.21 million tons (-9.56%); the sugar import increased by 8 million tons (160%) [8]. 3.5. Meal Industry 3.5.1. Price Changes - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged; the futures price of M2509 decreased by 10 yuan (-0.33%); the basis increased by 10 yuan (8.33%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 22562 (-100%). - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan (-0.38%); the futures price of RM2509 decreased by 36 yuan (-1.32%); the basis increased by 26 yuan (22.61%); the warehouse receipt increased by 1200. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged; the futures price of the main contract decreased by 22 yuan (-0.53%); the basis increased by 22 yuan (11.40%) [10]. 3.5.2. Spread Changes - The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread increased by 3 yuan (7.69%); the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 19 yuan (-6.19%); the oil - meal ratio decreased slightly; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased [10]. 3.6. Cotton Industry 3.6.1. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 105 yuan (-0.76%); the price of cotton 2601 decreased by 65 yuan (-0.47%); the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.28 cents (-0.41%); the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan (-26.67%); the main contract's open interest decreased by 26389 (-7.02%); the warehouse receipt decreased by 115 (-1.27%). - Spot: The price of Xinjiang 3128B decreased by 130 yuan (-0.85%); the CC Index 3128B decreased by 145 yuan (-0.94%); the FC Index M 1% decreased by 35 yuan (-0.26%) [12]. 3.6.2. Industry Indicators - The industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons (-2.3%); the import volume decreased by 1 million tons (-25%); the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year; the yarn inventory days increased by 1.13 days (4.1%); the grey cloth inventory days increased by 0.63 days (1.7%) [12]. 3.7. Egg Industry 3.7.1. Price Changes - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 48 yuan (-1.34%); the price of the egg 10 contract decreased by 55 yuan (-1.64%); the egg spot price in the production area decreased by 0.03 yuan (-0.87%); the basis increased by 20 yuan (5.41%); the 9 - 10 spread increased by 7 yuan (3.23%). - The price of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged; the price of culled hens increased by 0.84 yuan (17.50%); the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.35 (15.56%); the breeding profit increased by 20.65 yuan (62.61%) [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple agricultural product futures, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, presenting different views and trading strategies for each based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, it is expected to be in a large - range oscillation due to the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. The main contract range is [2980, 3040] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also in a large - range oscillation with multiple long and short factors. The main contract range is [2620, 2750]. Attention should be paid to rapeseed planting weather, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The market outlook is bullish in the long - term, but there may be short - term adjustments. In July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil, which may suppress short - term prices. The main contract range is [8600, 8950] [1]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. Although the valuation is low, it is necessary to be cautious when short - selling. Consider gradually taking profit on previous short positions. The main contract range is [13400, 13700] [1]. - **Jujube**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. After the price fills the gap, there is significant upward pressure. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound driven by macro - sentiment. The main contract range is [10525, 11275] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. In the short - term, there is support for the price, and the near - month contract is difficult to break through downward. In the medium - and long - term, pay attention to the intensity of capacity reduction. Consider gradually taking profit on near - month short positions and establishing long positions on far - month contracts after the spot price stabilizes. The main contract range is [13950, 14350] [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, up 10.60 million tons week - on - week and 22.85 million tons year - on - year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 645.59 million tons, up 3.35 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, up 4.47 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2977.71 yuan/ton, up 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [2]. - **Factors**: The neutral climate forecast and smooth US soybean planting weather, along with the inventory accumulation period in China until the end of September, contribute to weak fundamentals. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons week - on - week, and national rapeseed meal inventory was 66.54 million tons, down 1.33 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2658.42 yuan/ton, down 30.53 yuan or 1.14% [4]. - **Factors**: The recovery of global rapeseed production, high domestic inventory, and low import due to high tariffs support the price. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed and low spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal put pressure on the price [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, up 2.41 million tons week - on - week and 10.88 million tons year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8990 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.03% [7]. - **Factors**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are bullish for consumption, but the possible inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. Cotton - **Production**: In the US, the new cotton growth is good despite slightly worse soil moisture. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit are expected to increase, with the national average yield per unit expected to rise by 2.5% and the output to reach over 7.4 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently [12]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 13585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.48% from the previous day. The spot price was 15270 yuan/ton, down 288 yuan or 1.85% [9]. - **Factors**: Weak US cotton exports and reduced domestic demand due to slow replenishment of downstream products lead to a bearish outlook, but low valuation makes short - selling cautious [1]. Jujube - **Production**: The new - season jujube growth is good, and the expected production reduction is lower than previously thought [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, down 51 tons week - on - week, but still higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10920 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan or 2.10% from the previous day [13]. - **Factors**: The weak fundamentals, limited implementation of the floor - price purchase order, and low demand in the off - season make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - term, the accelerated出栏 of second - fattened pigs and partial culling of sows by large farms may increase supply. In the medium - term, the increase in the number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 indicates potential growth in出栏 in the second half of the year [18]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14055 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% [16]. - **Factors**: The rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs drives some second - fattening speculation, providing support for the near - month contract. However, high long - term capacity requires attention to capacity reduction [1].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：中国四季度庞大采购缺口是市场核心矛盾。未来仍需关注四季度采购方向及采购节奏。南北美 出口的激烈博弈，将显著影响贴水价格和期货远月合约。国内进口大豆的远期采购成本攀升，继续从原料 端对豆粕价格构成支撑。短期豆粕期价受到市场情绪的扰动影响较大，随着市场情绪整体回暖，豆粕期价 止跌回稳，短期或转为震荡运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly research report of Guotai Junan Futures on agricultural products dated August 3, 2025, covering palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and peanuts [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may experience a short - term pullback as the macro - sentiment fades, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels. Soybean oil lacks effective drivers and should focus on the results of Sino - US negotiations. Soybean meal and soybean prices are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean weather and trade, and soybean driven by technical factors. Corn should focus on the spot market. Sugar is in range - bound trading. Cotton needs to pay attention to external market sentiment. Live pigs have a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the reverse spread is confirmed. Peanuts should focus on the weather in the producing areas [2][4][8][18][22][44][76][108][126] Group 4: Palm Oil Last Week's View and Logic - The positive domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the lack of continuous fundamental drivers and weak demand from India made it difficult for the price to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - After the bearish impact of the slightly increased inventory in the MPOB June report, palm oil started to rebound. It is estimated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but it is unlikely to exceed 2.2 million tons. Indonesia may face the problem of lower - than - expected production. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to the reduction in US soybean oil supply. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room to correct, but there is also a risk of early de - stocking due to lower - than - expected production in July - August. The soybean - palm oil spread is not likely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [5][7] Group 5: Soybean Oil Last Week's View and Logic - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders reversed the weak domestic situation. The oil mills maintained a high - level of crushing and actively exported. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - The good rainfall in the US Midwest in mid - to - late July is beneficial to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will remain weakly volatile. If the trend of soybean oil exports continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international spread. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the future [8] Group 6: Soybean Meal and Soybean Last Week's Situation - Last week, US soybean prices fell due to good weather in the producing areas and trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices oscillated, and soybean prices were weak. The strength of domestic soybean meal was affected by the strength of rapeseed meal and trade - war concerns. The fundamentals of domestic soybeans changed little, and the price was affected by market sentiment and soybean price fluctuations [18] Next Week's Forecast - It is expected that the prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean will oscillate. Soybean meal may be slightly stronger due to trade - war concerns, while domestic soybeans should focus on technical fluctuations [22] Group 7: Corn Market Review - In the spot market last week, corn prices fell slightly. In the futures market, the price also declined, and the basis strengthened [44][45] Market Outlook - CBOT corn fell last week due to favorable weather in the US agricultural area. Wheat prices were stable, and corn auctions continued. The corn starch inventory decreased. The corn supply - demand balance remains tight, and the focus should be on the spot market, especially the upward momentum in North China and the de - stocking speed of warehouse receipts in the northern ports [46][49] Group 8: Sugar This Week's Market Review - Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price decreased by 0.49%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price both declined, and the basis of the main contract increased significantly [76][77] Next Week's Market Outlook - Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level range - bound trading. Domestically, it will also be in range - bound trading, with the internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [78][106] Group 9: Cotton Market Situation - ICE cotton fell last week due to good growth of US cotton, average export sales data, and a strong US dollar. Domestic cotton futures fell by more than 4% due to concerns about low - quality warehouse receipts and a cooling financial market sentiment [108] Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the adjustment of domestic cotton futures is temporarily in place, but it needs to wait for the financial market sentiment to stabilize. It is expected to oscillate around 13,600 yuan, and attention should be paid to policy trends and downstream demand [108][124] Group 10: Live Pigs This Week's Market Review - In the spot market, pig prices were weakly operating, with a decline in the price of piglets and a slight increase in the price of live pigs. In the futures market, prices were weakly oscillating, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [126] Next Week's Market Outlook - Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The futures price of the LH2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14,500 yuan/ton [127][128]

Core Viewpoint - Corn futures experienced a downward trend this week, with the main contract closing at 2297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of July 27, 2025, the USDA reported that the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and up from 68% the same time last year [1] - The favorable rating for U.S. corn indicates a strong production outlook, which continues to exert pressure on international corn prices [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the Northeast production area, trade inventories have dropped to low levels, with traders showing moderate enthusiasm for low-price sales [1] - Grain enterprises have medium to long-term orders but are primarily engaging in essential purchases, leading to a lack of market activity and minimal price fluctuations [1] - The presence of wheat as a substitute, along with policies regarding imported corn auctions and delayed deliveries, has contributed to a cautious overall market sentiment [1] Group 3: Price Trends and Strategy - This week, corn prices declined again, maintaining a generally weak trend [1] - The suggested trading strategy is to focus on short-term transactions [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent performance of U.S. soybean futures, which have experienced six consecutive days of decline, approaching the annual low of $9.71 per bushel, raising concerns about the sustainability of bullish positions [1] - The demand for U.S. soybeans is under pressure, particularly due to the absence of China, the largest buyer, which has led to questions about who can support the weak demand for American soybeans [1] Group 1 - U.S. soybean futures are nearing a critical annual low, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The continuous decline in soybean prices highlights the vulnerability of bullish positions in the market [1] - The lack of demand from China poses significant challenges for U.S. soybean exports, impacting overall market sentiment [1]

Group 1 - U.S. soybean futures are hovering near a four-month low due to expectations of a bumper crop in the U.S. being met with record harvests in Brazil [1] - The global supply of wheat is expected to increase as Argentina also reports a bumper crop, potentially exacerbating the oversupply situation [1]