| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一主力经过短暂的跳空之后,盘面再度回升,盘面仍然在进行移仓。本周中储粮计划竞价拍卖大豆2.1万吨, 成交1.3万吨,底价3950元/吨,成交均价4027元/吨,溢价0-160元/吨。由于拍卖溢价成交,给豆一价格带来一 定的支撑,价格表 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral Outlook**: Soybean [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall trend of agricultural products shows a mixed pattern, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - The prices of some products are expected to follow the market situation, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors such as export, weather, and production season [3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - The main soybean contract rebounded after a short - term gap, and the contract is being shifted. The auction of soybeans by CGS in the middle of this week had a certain supporting effect on the price, and the price was stable and strong. It is necessary to continuously monitor the fundamentals and policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The de - stocking trend of soybean meal since December is difficult to continue. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The price of US soybean futures has fallen back to the previous bottom range. The price of soybean meal will follow the US soybean to fluctuate in the near future [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil continued to rebound, while soybean oil fell back after rising. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil showed an improvement in exports and a decline in production, alleviating the negative atmosphere. US soybeans also rebounded after a recent decline [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market has seen rising meal and falling oil recently, but the overall fluctuation range is not large. The domestic coastal oil mills maintain a zero - pressing state. The import data in November shows that the trade between China and Russia in the rapeseed sector is getting closer. The rapeseed futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports have slowly declined. The downstream procurement has no obvious increase after the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures and spot markets have both risen slightly. It is expected that there will be a wave of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support the current pig price. In the medium - to - long term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year, and the main 03 contract price is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg contract has increased its position by more than 10,000 lots. The contracts corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival are weak, while the contracts from the second to the third quarter have increased in position and price. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9]

软商品日报 2025/12/23 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term external market has insufficient bullish factors and may test the support at 1050 cents. Considering the reduced pressure on the new - season ending inventory, there is expected to be some support at the bottom [6]. - In the domestic market, the increase in auction frequency and high port soybean inventory lead to insufficient bullish factors. The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. It is not advisable for bulls to buy the dip for now. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's output adjustment in January, but there is no driving force at present [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review** - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The 12 - month supply - demand report was mediocre. China has purchased over 765 tons of US soybeans as of mid - December, and it is not difficult to complete the 1200 - ton purchase target. However, other countries have shifted to Brazil, and the current US soybean export sales are nearly 40% lower than the same period last year. In South America, Brazil's new - season rainfall is good, and most major producing states have no severe drought problems. Argentina is in the late sowing stage, and the rainfall has improved in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The increase in auction frequency makes it difficult for the soybean meal spot market to be in short supply, and the port soybean inventory is at a relatively high level [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. Bulls should not buy the dip for now [6]. 3.2 Industry News - In Brazil, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul has reached 76% of the expected 6.74 million hectares, lower than last year's 80% and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit is still expected to be 3180 kg/ha, a significant increase from the previous year [7]. - In Argentina, as of December 11, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week but lower than 66% in the same period last year [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [14][17][18].

农产品日报 | 2025-12-23 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14070元/吨，较前一日变动+55元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14986元/吨，较前一日变动+7元/吨，现货基差CF05+916，较前一日变动-48；3128B棉全国均价15154元/吨， 较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF05+1084，较前一日变动-46。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，12月12日至12月18日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验19.93万吨， 83.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为19.34万吨，皮马棉为0.59万吨。至同期，累计分级检验 242.43万吨，82.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为236.65万吨，皮马棉为5.78万吨。 市场分析 市场情绪有所好转，板块整体震荡回升 昨日郑棉期价震荡上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - **Bean Meal**: High import costs have led to low procurement of US soybeans, and US soybean exports are below expectations. South American soybeans are growing well, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, causing US soybean prices to be weak. In China, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories at high levels. The price of the 05 contract is weak, following US soybean prices, but high import costs provide some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] - **Corn**: On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. On the demand side, traders' inventory increases slowly, and their purchasing is cautious. Deep - processing plants' operations are stable, with slightly increased inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make just - in - time purchases and adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Current inventories are rising but still below historical levels. The future focus is on alternative grain auctions, and corn spot prices are expected to adjust [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2741 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3080 yuan/ton, 3020 yuan/ton, and 3030 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 17, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 67.3% complete. In November, Argentina exported 218.9 million tons of soybeans, 56.2 million tons of soybean oil, and 271.4 million tons of bean meal [1] - **Market Analysis**: High import costs lead to low US soybean procurement and weak US soybean prices due to South American competition. In China, the supply - demand pattern is stable, with high inventories, and the 05 contract price is weak but supported by import costs [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral [3] 3.2 Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2192 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract was 2497 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.20%). As of December 17, Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting area was 69.5% of the expected area. In November, Argentina exported 158.4 million tons of corn. As of December 18, Ukraine had harvested 94% of its planned grain area, with a total yield of 5657.6 million tons [3] - **Market Analysis**: Farmers' reluctance to sell slows the grain - selling pace. Traders are cautious in purchasing, while deep - processing plants' purchasing willingness has improved. Feed enterprises mainly make just - in - time purchases. Inventories are rising but below historical levels, and future focus is on alternative grain auctions [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral [6]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | | 震荡偏空 | 应预计暂充足，但一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，现货价格表 | | ★ | | 现抗跌。豆粕预计短线暂维持震荡偏弱行情。关注美豆出口情况及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，仓单压力有所 | | 菜粕 | 震荡偏空 | 减轻。但全球丰产、进口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋 | | ★ | | 势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 印尼再一次提出强制 2026 年下半年试试 B50 的言论，以及马棕榈油本月前 20 日出 | | 棕榈油 | | 口数据和产量数据较上一期数据大幅改善，昨日棕榈油低位快速反弹。但对于 12 | | ★ | 止跌反弹 | 月马棕榈油累库的可能性依然存在，短线反弹对待，注意仓位及操作节 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight US soybeans closed higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound and fluctuate; the soybean futures are expected to be volatile [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4105 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.51%, and 4110 yuan/ton during the night session, up 21 yuan; DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2741 yuan/ton during the day session, up 6 yuan (+0.22%), and 2738 yuan/ton during the night session, down 2 yuan (-0.07%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1064 cents/bushel, up 4.5 cents (+0.42%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 301.7 dollars/short ton, up 0.4 dollars (+0.13%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) in different regions had different changes compared with the previous day, with the range from -10 to +30 yuan/ton; the spot basis was M2605 + 360, down 10 yuan compared with the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 14.03 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.48 million tons two trading days ago; the inventory was 100.92 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 22, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to China's soybean purchases, rising crude oil prices, and a weaker US dollar. Although the Brazilian soybean production is expected to be bumper this year and traders are still skeptical about China's purchase speed under the Sino - US bilateral trade truce agreement, the year - end bulk purchases in the agricultural product market supported the soybean futures. The US Department of Agriculture announced that private exporters sold 39.6 million tons of soybeans to China, with 33 million tons to be delivered this year and the rest in 2026/27 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts of the day session on the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal oscillated and closed lower, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. Brazilian soybean sowing rate reached 94.1% as of the week of December 13. US soybean exports are still slightly slow. With concerns over US soybean export demand and increasing expectations of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybean futures prices have been weak recently. In China, continuous auctions of imported soybeans have made up for the supply gap, and the cost support for Dalian oil and meal has weakened. With sufficient long - term supply expected to continue to pressure prices, Dalian meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils showed a strong oscillation. Malaysia's reduction of palm oil export tax rates and reference prices boosted export expectations, leading to a rise in palm oil futures prices. However, the inventory pressure in the producing areas is still significant. Although in the production - reduction period, the inventory inflection point may not appear until December. For rapeseed oil, with Australian rapeseeds arriving at ports and about to enter the crushing process, market supply is expected to gradually increase. With no improvement in the short - term fundamentals of palm oil producing areas, oils are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7772, 8414, and 8864 respectively, with price changes of 60, 122, and 120 and percentage changes of 0.78%, 1.47%, and - 3.15%. The price differences and ratios of various contracts also showed different changes [1]. - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3958 (Ringgit/ton), 1064 (cents/bu), 49 (cents/lb), and 302 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 9, 15, 1, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.23%, 1.43%, 1.49%, and 0.13% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Domestic Spot**: In the domestic spot market, the spot prices of various oils and meals showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.61%, and the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil increased by 0.24%. The spot price differences and basis also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - **Import and Processing Profit**: The current values of import and processing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil were - 391, - 314, - 103, - 300, and - 335 respectively, showing different degrees of improvement compared with the previous values [1]. 3.3 Industry Information - **Soybean Export**: A US private exporter reported selling 396,000 tons of soybeans to China, with 330,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/2026 season and the remaining 66,000 tons for delivery in the 2026/2027 season [2]. - **Palm Oil Export**: According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 821,442 tons, a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 偏 ...