Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1 [1][2] - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [2] - The tariffs will not apply to copper raw materials and scrap, which are exempt from the "Section 232" provisions [1][2] Group 2 - Following the announcement, copper prices in New York plummeted over 18% within minutes [2] - The White House indicated that these copper tariffs will not be cumulative with additional tariffs on automobile imports [2] - There is a requirement for 25% of high-quality copper scrap and raw copper products to be sold domestically, although this is not expected to have immediate significant impact [2]

Group 1 - The exclusion of refined copper from the tariff plan led to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper prices falling approximately 20% in a matter of minutes, marking the largest single-day decline in history [1] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. saw its stock price drop by about 10%, while Southern Copper's stock fell over 6%, indicating a weakening of the premium on U.S. copper prices [3] - The decision to exclude refined copper is seen as a positive development for companies like Codelco, which exports refined copper to the U.S., as stated by Codelco's chairman [3] Group 2 - Starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on various imported copper products, including semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while raw copper materials and scrap copper will not be subject to these tariffs [4] - The new tariffs are part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to boost domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [4] - The U.S. currently relies on imports for about half of its copper, with a significant portion coming from Chile, highlighting the importance of global trade flows for this metal [7] Group 3 - The decision to differentiate between refined copper and semi-finished copper in the tariff policy was influenced by lobbying from the copper industry, as there is a belief that the U.S. lacks sufficient capacity to immediately replace all copper imports [6] - The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs is expected to disrupt global copper trade flows, as recent shipments to the U.S. may be redirected for re-export [5]

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合 市场预期，同时也是今年美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中，两张反对票来自由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事——沃勒和鲍曼，他们倾向于支持降息25 个基点，与特朗普的诉求相呼应。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 特朗普当天稍早前曾表示，维持高利率正在伤害民众，美联储应该降低利率。在利率决议公布前不久，特朗普还预测，美联储此次可能不会降息，但"听 说9月要降息"。美联储主席鲍威尔则强调，目前仍然存在不确定性，美联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定。 美联储连续第五次维持利率不变 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9比2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之 间不变。 其中，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼投票反对该决定，支持降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 联邦公开市场委 ...

Group 1: Market Reaction - Following President Trump's exclusion of refined copper from the tariff plan, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% within minutes, marking the largest single-day drop in history [1][2] - Freeport-McMoRan Inc. saw its stock price decline by approximately 10%, while Southern Copper's stock fell over 6% due to the announcement weakening the premium on U.S. copper prices [2] - The decision is viewed positively by Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, as it benefits their exports to the U.S. market [2] Group 2: Tariff Details - Starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on various imported copper products, including semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [3][5] - Copper input materials and scrap copper will not be subject to the tariffs, which is a significant distinction in the policy [3][6] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to boost U.S. domestic industries and address trade imbalances, following previous tariffs on steel and aluminum [5][6] Group 3: Industry Implications - The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs is expected to disrupt global copper trade flows, as refined copper is crucial for various applications, including electrical wiring [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the removal of refined copper from the tariff list eliminates arbitrage opportunities, leading to a convergence in market prices [9] - The U.S. relies heavily on copper imports, with about half of its copper needs being met through imports, primarily from Chile [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on all copper imports starting August 1, along with additional tariffs of 50% and 30% on goods from Brazil and Mexico respectively [1] - Experts from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) indicate that the U.S. trade policy has become politicized, violating bilateral and multilateral agreements [1][3] - The effective average tariff on Latin America and the Caribbean from the U.S. is projected to rise from 13% in July to 18% if the new tariffs are implemented [3] Group 2 - Mexico is expected to be the most affected country, with 80% of its exports going to the U.S., particularly in the automotive and electronic manufacturing sectors [5] - Brazil's steel and aviation industries will also face significant impacts due to the highest tariffs imposed by the U.S. [5] - ECLAC recommends that Latin American and Caribbean countries diversify their exports and focus on markets in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Africa in response to the U.S. tariff situation [6]

持货商积极出货 铜价维持震荡格局 现货情况： 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-29，沪铜主力合约开于 79130元/吨，收于 78840元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.20%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,910元/吨，收于 79,090 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.14%。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-30 据 SMM 讯，昨日早盘持货商开始低报升水，主流平水铜报价升水400元/吨附近，铁峰、中条山PC、金凤等上海、 常州市场价格降至升水350元/吨附近，随后在被压价至升水320-340元/吨成交。此时主流平水铜依旧升水380-400 元/吨报价，货源紧缺。好铜升水420元/吨附近以金川为主，CCC-P依旧紧缺。进入第二交易时段，部分日本、韩 国、大江PC、大江HS等货源升水300-320元/吨。低价引起市场下游采购，日内市场采购情绪指数提升至3.18，销 售情绪指数提升至3.29。沪铜现货商担心后市升水继续走跌，积极出货止盈。 宏观与地缘方面，目前，美联储议息会议临近，不过理事库格勒因私缺席本周议息会议，票委暂降至11人。"美联 储传声筒"：美联储最终将需要继续降息，但他 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - IMF's upward revision of the global economic growth forecast provides temporary support for the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and the expectation of weakening demand still suppress prices, while policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support prices. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, such as short - term long positions in aluminum and tin at low prices and short positions in zinc ingots at high prices. For the long - term, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered for some varieties with supply surpluses or expected surpluses [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different market trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate due to the approaching expiration date of reciprocal tariffs; alumina will continue to fluctuate widely; aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly with a continuous inventory accumulation trend; aluminum alloy will fluctuate in a weak off - season atmosphere; zinc prices will fluctuate weakly; lead prices will fluctuate with stable cost support; nickel prices will fluctuate widely; stainless steel will fluctuate; and tin prices will fluctuate with inventory accumulation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: As the expiration date of reciprocal tariffs approaches, copper prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The Chilean Finance Minister hopes that the 50% tariff on copper can be exempted. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may be implemented at the end of July or August 1st. In June, China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28th, copper inventory increased. On July 29th, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had an average premium of 110 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, investors are becoming more cautious as the tariff expiration date approaches, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. The supply of raw materials is still tight, increasing the risk of smelter production cuts. The copper rod operating rate has declined, and inventory has increased. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and inventory is still low, but demand is weakening marginally. The implementation of US copper tariffs is not conducive to Shanghai copper prices, so copper is expected to show a fluctuating pattern [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: With a large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts, alumina will continue to fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of alumina increased in various regions. The supply of Guinea's bauxite may tighten during the rainy season, but the overall market surplus pattern will suppress prices. On July 29th, the alumina warehouse receipts decreased by 4823 tons to 4208 tons [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the alumina market is dominated by anti - involution sentiment and low warehouse receipts. Fundamentally, smelter production capacity is increasing, and the market is in a surplus state with rising inventory. However, the large - scale cancellation of warehouse receipts and the low level of warehouse receipt inventory may support prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to anti - involution sentiment and warehouse receipt issues [10][11]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: With the continuous inventory accumulation trend, aluminum prices will fluctuate narrowly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton. As of July 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas in China changed. On July 29th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 524 tons. Relevant policies for the stable growth of key industries are expected to be introduced. Hydro's Q2 production data shows a slight increase in aluminum production. The US has reached trade agreements with the EU, the Philippines, and other countries [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the approaching tariff deadline, a slight rebound in the US dollar, and the cooling of anti - involution policy expectations. The supply - side production capacity and operating rate are at a high level, while the demand - side off - season atmosphere is emerging, and the operating rate of primary processing is declining. Inventory is accumulating, and the spot basis is flat. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the consumption situation and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices can be considered based on the premium and inventory inflection point [12]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: In a strong off - season atmosphere, the market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. In June 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports decreased year - on - year. Thailand plans to implement carbon tax policies. An aluminum alloy project in Anhui started construction with a total investment of about 2 billion yuan [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, ADC12 is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, but the previous imports have increased, and the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, resulting in a marginal decline in scrap aluminum prices. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is low, and inventory is accumulating. The demand is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises purchase on a just - in - time basis. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and the ADC12 - A00 spread will fluctuate at a low level, and the market will follow electrolytic aluminum. In the future, there is room for the spread to rise, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [13][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of anti - involution sentiment, zinc prices will fluctuate weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the spot price of zinc in different regions had different discounts to the main contract. As of July 29th, the inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased. The Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc smelting project was put into production, with an annual zinc production capacity of 560,000 tons [15]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the anti - involution sentiment has cooled, but there are still expectations of domestic policy stimulus. The US dollar index has support, but its rebound is limited. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc ingot production will increase, and demand will weaken, leading to inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: With stable cost support, lead prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead was stable. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan. As of July 28th, lead ingot inventory increased slightly. The supply of primary lead is still tight, while the production of recycled lead has recovered [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is stable. The price of waste batteries is stable, and the operating rate of recycled lead smelters has increased. The production capacity of primary lead smelters has not fully recovered, and the weekly production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has increased [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Although the US reciprocal tariff suspension period has been postponed to August 1st, the announced tariff is high, causing macro - level fluctuations. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, the battery factory operating rate has recovered. The supply of lead ingots may continue to increase slightly this week. The cost of recycled lead is supported at a high level, so lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With fluctuating market sentiment, nickel prices will fluctuate widely. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to invest in the nickel downstream industry, and some companies have adjusted their production forecasts. Vale Indonesia plans to raise funds for nickel projects. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association proposes to revise the HPM formula, and the Indonesian government will implement a new RKAB system. The export volume of the Philippines to Indonesia is expected to increase [18][19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, market sentiment dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. After the rainy season, the supply of raw materials may be looser. The production of intermediate products has recovered, and the price of nickel salts has declined slightly. The inventory of electrolytic nickel is accumulating, and the upward pressure is significant. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, they will face downward pressure [22]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With the cooling of sentiment, the stainless - steel market will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade ore to rise slightly in the first half of August. The spot price of 304 stainless steel in Foshan had a discount to the main contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged [23][25]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of chrome iron is stable. Due to the traditional consumption off - season, the improvement in spot trading volume is limited. In June, stainless - steel production decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. Last week, social inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, alleviating the structural surplus pressure. - **Outlook**: The overall sentiment in the commodity sector has cooled. Attention should be paid to the possibility of increased production cuts by steel mills due to long - term profit compression and policy expectations. In the short term, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost - side changes [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With inventory accumulation in both markets, tin prices will fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On July 29th, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 160 tons to 7529 tons. The trading volume decreased by 2289 lots to 52135 lots. The average spot price of 1 tin ingots decreased by 2700 yuan/ton to 266100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, tin ore production is expected to gradually increase, but the tight supply situation in China will not change in the short term. The supply - demand fundamentals provide strong support for tin prices. However, the terminal demand for tin has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, limiting the upward momentum of tin prices. - **Outlook**: With the tight supply of tin ore, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to fluctuate. In August, the volatility of tin prices may increase due to possible changes in macro, capital, and supply - demand factors [26]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this part.

铜被广泛应用于建筑、电子等多个领域，其价格波动与通胀密切相关，因此这一轮上涨引发市场对成本 传导与价格压力的担忧。 在关税预期下，美国铜进口商已展开"抢跑"行动。摩根大通指出，今年上半年美国铜进口同比暴增 129%，导致库存激增。StoneX亦称，目前已有部分铜货物停泊在美国海域外，等待最佳入境时机。 StoneX金属需求高级分析师Natalie Scott-Gray指出，目前市场普遍存在"关税疲劳感"和对"国家豁免"可 能性的期待。她认为，若美国在8月1日实施铜关税之际宣布某些国家豁免，例如智利，可能会导致 COMEX和伦敦金属交易所(LME)之间的套利空间迅速收窄。 智利财政部长Mario Marcel已表示正推动争取豁免。分析人士认为，智利之所以被"特别对待"，不仅因 其在美国铜供应中占据主导地位，也因为美智之间存在贸易顺差。 目前，COMEX9月铜合约价格约为每磅5.63美元，而LME三个月期铜价格折算后仅为每磅4.44美元，套 利空间已大幅拉开。 若无国家豁免出现，关税全面生效，StoneX预计套利差将进一步扩大，美国铜价将在中期维持高位。美 国对铜的进口依赖度高达44%，这意味着任何供应中断都可能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with short - term prices under pressure and in a volatile state. The aluminum market is affected by macro - economic factors and fundamentals, with short - term price pressure. The zinc market has sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and weak consumption, with prices under pressure. The lead market has cost support, and the prices have a certain bottom - line. The nickel market has limited driving forces for prices and maintains a volatile state. The stainless steel market is affected by macro - expectations and cost factors, with short - term prices returning to the volatile range. The tin market is affected by supply and demand, with short - term prices following market sentiment. The industrial silicon market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term may have a rebound. The polycrystalline silicon market may have a short - term correction and then be involved in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term speculative sentiment and high uncertainty, and investors are advised to wait for policy implementation [7][23][39][44][49][56][64][70][75][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,840 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its position by 2,049 lots to 496,800 lots. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was firm, and the spot premium in North China increased slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. Teck Resource's copper production in Q2 2025 decreased year - on - year, and its annual production guidance was lowered. The production schedule of white - goods in August decreased compared to the same period last year [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of reciprocal tariffs may be relatively mild. The domestic smelters maintain high production, and the market is mainly disturbed by the expectation of copper tariffs. The inventory has increased, and the downstream procurement has slightly increased [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot supply and demand are weak, and it is under pressure and volatile in the short term [7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2509 contract rose 33 yuan to 3,307 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 7,296 lots to 359,400 lots. The spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental - control notices. The replacement projects of large - scale alumina enterprises in Shandong were put into production, and the roasting project in Gansu was about to produce. The alumina plant in Guinea had a strike [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the reduction of positions and decline, it stabilized in the short term. The operating capacity increased, and the theoretical surplus expanded. The inventory has been increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low warehouse receipts may drive the price to rebound. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage and options [15][16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 45 yuan/ton to 20,605 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 12,072 lots. The spot prices in various regions decreased [18]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the price law was being revised. Huafeng Aluminum planned to purchase aluminum products [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: The LME aluminum price fluctuated and then declined. The domestic market should pay attention to policy expectations. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of the widening of the monthly spread [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is under pressure in the short term. Enter the long - spread position of 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. Temporarily wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 20,020 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 246 lots. The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [26]. - **Related Information**: The production of cast aluminum alloy decreased, and the price law was being revised [26][27]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap - aluminum sources, and the demand is affected by different orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is under pressure following the aluminum price. Consider the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity when the spot discount to the futures is more than 300 yuan. Temporarily wait and see for options [31][32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.35% to 22,655 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 6,419 lots. The spot trading was average, and the premium was basically stable [34]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall in North China did not affect the production and transportation of galvanized plants. The zinc concentrate production of some mines increased [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The zinc concentrate market is stable, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic refined zinc production may increase. The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream procurement is weak [37][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable short - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to setting stop - profit points. Buy put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [40][41]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2509 fell 0.24% to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,605 lots. The spot price was stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness improved slightly [42]. - **Related Information**: Heavy rainfall affected the raw - material transportation of recycled lead smelters [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has cost support, and the production of primary and recycled lead is affected. The terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long - positions can continue to be held, and attention should be paid to macro - risks. Sell put options. Temporarily wait and see for options [45][47]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell 1,040 to 121,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 3,705 lots. The premiums of different brands of nickel changed [48]. - **Related Information**: The Fed may continue to cut interest rates. A large - scale nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start in Q4 2025 [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere has weakened, and the nickel price has a limited decline. The supply and demand are weak in July and August, and the price lacks driving forces [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price follows the macro - atmosphere. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [50][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell 15 to 12,920 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 8,224 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [54]. - **Related Information**: The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project will drive the demand for stainless steel. A stainless - steel project of Guangqing Metal Technology is expected to be put into production in 2026 [55][56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The speculative atmosphere has cooled down. The external demand is restricted, and the internal demand is in the off - season. The cost has an impact on the price, and the market pays attention to macro - expectations [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price returns to the volatile range. Temporarily wait and see for arbitrage [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,660 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the position decreased by 2,289 lots. The spot price decreased, and the trading was restricted [60]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and a national industrial - information conference was convened [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: The LME inventory increased slightly. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price follows the market sentiment. Temporarily wait and see for options [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon opened high and closed at 9,350 yuan/ton. The spot prices generally weakened [67][68]. - **Related Information**: It is rumored that an anti - involution meeting will be held in August [69]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply has increased, and the demand of some downstream products has changed. The social inventory has decreased. The price may decline in the medium - to - long term [70]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and it is weak in the medium - to - long term. Hold the previous protective put options. Participate in the reverse - spread of 11 and 12 contracts, the cash - and - carry arbitrage of 11 and 10 contracts, and the butterfly spread strategy [71]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polycrystalline silicon futures rose sharply and closed at 50,805 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polycrystalline silicon were given [73]. - **Related Information**: The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [74]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has declined, and the price may have a correction. The capacity integration is imperative, and the silicon - wafer price adjustment is completed [75]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may have a correction, and then participate in the market with a long - position and protective put option strategy. Hold the long - polycrystalline - silicon and short - industrial - silicon position for a long time and conduct the reverse - spread of far - month contracts of polycrystalline silicon [76]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract fell 4,440 to 70,840 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 78,853 lots. The spot prices decreased [77]. - **Important Information**: The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world increased in H1 2025, and China had a high share [78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The situation of the ore end is uncertain, and the price may test the support at 65,000 [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term speculative sentiment is strong, and the fundamentals are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see. Enterprises with long - term contracts can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. Temporarily wait and see for options [82][84].

市场降温叠加库存再度施压，铜价短期区间回调 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 截至7月25日当周，沪铜主力合约价格从79820元/吨回落至79290元/吨，跌 幅约0.66%；LME铜价从9854.5美元/吨降至9796美元/吨，延续高位回调趋 势。现货升水显著收窄，升水铜升水环比从180元/吨跌至165元/吨，平水 铜升水从110元/吨降至85元/吨，显示现货供应压力增大。LME铜0-3贴水扩 大至-53.68美元/吨。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓量增至27.04万手，但SHFE铜库存增至12.85万吨，多空博弈加 剧。上海市场临近月末持货商抛售换现情绪增强，下游采购仅维持刚需， 市场流动性边际转弱。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动因素加剧。Newmont旗下RedChris矿因事故暂停运营，叠加嘉能可 Mount Isa矿于下周正式关闭，削弱全球铜矿供应弹性。但江铜赞比亚项目 投产补充加工端供应。整体冶炼端维持高位，进口铜到港及国产补充导致 上海地区垒库。 需求端： 淡季特征明显。铜线缆企业开工率环比下降2.07%至70.83%，预计下周进一 步降至70.30%，主 ...