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记者丨杨韵琪 编辑丨梁明 过去一周（2月2日—2月6日），A股三大指数集体收跌。截至2月6日收盘，沪指周跌1.27%，深 成指周跌2.11%，创业板指周跌3.28%。 近44%的个股周内实现上涨，光伏设备、钙钛矿电池、赛马概念、TOPCON电池等板块涨幅居 前，贵金属、金属铅、转基因等板块跌幅居前。 沾A I就火，最牛股收获2 0 c m四连板 图源：Wind 2月5日，民爆光电公布股票交易 异常波动及股票交易严重异常波动公告。 民爆光电在公告中表示，公司股票在2026年2月4日和2月5日连续两个交易日内收盘价涨幅累计偏 离45.76%，构成股票交易异常波动；在2026年2月2日至2月5日连续四个交易日内涨幅 累计偏离 109.05% ，属于严重异常波动。 公司目前经营正常，公司经营情况及内外部经营环境未发生重大变化。公司收购厦芝精密的审计 评估尚在进行中。本次交易仍需公司再次召开董事会审议，且发行股份购买资产事宜后续还需股 东大会批准，并上报深交所审核、证监会注册，最终能否成功实施存在不确定性。 剔除最近一个月上市的次新股，本期牛股榜中， 民爆光电（301362.SZ）以115.92%的周涨幅夺 魁， 凯龙 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to identify industry trends and allocate investments accordingly[5][8][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses various indicators to assess industry trends, including market performance, valuation levels, and risk appetite. - It incorporates signals from different sub-models such as the Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model, TWO BETA Model, and Performance Trend Model. - The Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model waits for reversal signals in industries like liquor and real estate. - The TWO BETA Model recommends the technology sector and monitors opportunities in commercial aerospace. - The Performance Trend Model focuses on the computing power industry chain and oversold sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals. - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying industry trends and making allocation recommendations based on various market signals[5][8][10] Model Name: Timing System - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to distinguish the overall market environment and provide timing signals for investment decisions[5][8][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) of the WIND All A Index. - The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6787 and the 120-day moving average at 6338, with a difference of 7.08%. - The model also considers the market trend line, which is currently around 6780 points, and the profitability effect, which is -1.44%. - The model suggests that the market is in a shock pattern and monitors short-term risk appetite changes. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides clear signals for market timing based on moving averages and other indicators[5][8][9] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10] - **Position Recommendation**: 70% for absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject[8][10] - **Timing System**: - **Moving Average Distance**: 7.08%, greater than the absolute value of 3%[5][8][9] - **Market Trend Line**: Around 6780 points[5][8][9] - **Profitability Effect**: -1.44%, indicating a temporary end to the upward trend[5][8][9] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to identify potential reversal signals in distressed industries[5][8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The model monitors industries like liquor and real estate for reversal signals. - It uses various market indicators to assess the likelihood of a reversal. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying potential investment opportunities in distressed industries[5][8][10] Factor Name: TWO BETA Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to recommend sectors with high growth potential, such as technology[5][8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The model focuses on the technology sector and monitors opportunities in commercial aerospace. - It uses market performance and other indicators to make recommendations. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying high-growth sectors and making investment recommendations[5][8][10] Factor Name: Performance Trend Model - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor aims to identify sectors with strong performance trends[5][8][10] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The model focuses on the computing power industry chain and oversold sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals. - It uses performance indicators to make recommendations. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying sectors with strong performance trends and making investment recommendations[5][8][10] Factor Backtesting Results - **Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10] - **TWO BETA Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10] - **Performance Trend Model**: - **PE Valuation Level**: 90th percentile, indicating a high level[8][10] - **PB Valuation Level**: 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[8][10]

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the importance of promoting effective investment to stabilize economic growth and enhance development momentum, proposing innovative policy measures and financial tools [2] - The meeting discusses the need to plan and promote major projects in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [2] - The meeting highlights the role of central state-owned enterprises in expanding investment and the need to support private investment development [2] Group 2 - Eight departments, including the People's Bank of China, release a notice to upgrade virtual currency regulatory policies, maintaining a prohibitive stance on virtual currency activities [3][4] - The notice specifies strict regulations for tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and requires domestic enterprises to file with the China Securities Regulatory Commission before engaging in related activities [3] - The regulatory framework aims to prevent illegal activities associated with virtual currencies, such as money laundering and fraud [4] Group 3 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reports that China's official gold reserves increased to 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, marking a continuous increase for 15 months [5] - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, up by $41.2 billion, the highest level in a decade [5] Group 4 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announces the construction of national computing power interconnection nodes, aiming to build a comprehensive system for computing power connectivity [6] - The announcement leads to a surge in related stocks, particularly in the computing power industry, indicating a growing demand for AI interaction capabilities [6] Group 5 - A successful launch of a reusable experimental spacecraft by China marks a significant advancement in commercial space endeavors, potentially leading to a normalization of high-frequency launches [7] - The development of a three-dimensional conical carbon-based flexible brain cortex electrode array by a research team signifies a breakthrough in brain-machine interface technology [8] Group 6 - The National Health Commission seeks public opinion on the first national standard for prepared dishes, which prohibits the use of preservatives and sets a maximum shelf life of one year [9] - The introduction of national standards is expected to enhance industry order and benefit leading companies through compliance and market share growth [9] Group 7 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches a historic milestone, closing above 50,000 points for the first time, with significant gains in technology and chip stocks [10] - The commodity market sees an increase in gold and silver prices, with gold rising by 3.88% to $4,966.22 per ounce and silver by 9.68% to $77.85 per ounce [11] Group 8 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approves IPO registrations for two companies, indicating ongoing market activity [12] - A total of 36 companies are set to have their restricted shares unlocked this week, with a total market value of approximately 36.5 billion yuan [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese capital market has already completed the "de-virtualization" pricing, and there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations [1][15] - Recent overseas market risk preferences and liquidity have shown significant changes, with a growing urgency in the US and Europe to focus on real economy and strategic security [1][15] - The AI-driven disruptive innovation is breaking traditional monopolies, leading to increased anxiety in the software sector, which is currently under pressure [1][15] Group 2 - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but the spring market is still anticipated to be promising, with potential positive news in the coming months [2][16] - Historical trends indicate that the market usually experiences a temporary correction before the Spring Festival, but investors are advised to hold stocks during this period [2][16] - The market is likely to see a rebound in trading activity after the Spring Festival, supported by high-frequency data and industry hot topics [2][16] Group 3 - The best opportunities in the current market are in new technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI and related industries, with a rebound expected around the Spring Festival [3][17] - Non-bank financials are also anticipated to rebound as redemption pressures on broad-based ETFs decrease [3][17] - Mid-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong growth potential, including technology and cyclical industries [3][17] Group 4 - The market is currently in a wide-ranging adjustment phase, with trading activity declining as the Spring Festival approaches [4][18] - There is an ongoing style shift in the market, with a focus on balancing growth and value styles as new market leaders emerge [4][18] - The overall sentiment remains positive for a "systematic slow bull" market, with a focus on sectors like securities, social services, and construction materials [4][18] Group 5 - Short-term strategies should focus on low-crowding technology opportunities, while mid-term strategies should gradually shift towards high-dividend, low-valuation sectors [6][19] - Key sectors for mid-term investment include banks, food and beverage, and transportation, which are expected to provide stable cash flows and dividends [6][19] - Caution is advised for sectors closely tied to consumption but with limited profit elasticity [6][19] Group 6 - The current market is characterized by a "pre-holiday risk aversion" trend, with a shift in funds from high-valuation technology and cyclical sectors to value and consumer sectors [9][24] - Defensive sectors like banks and food and beverage are performing well, while previously strong sectors like computing hardware and metals are experiencing corrections [9][24] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended [9][24] Group 7 - The spring market is not over, and risks during the Spring Festival are expected to be limited, with potential improvements in economic and profit expectations [10][25] - The liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, with expectations of increased capital inflow post-holiday [10][25] - The market is anticipated to see a recovery in real estate sales during the Spring Festival, supported by favorable policies [10][25]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in trading heat for hot themes, with a strong performance in space photovoltaics and a pullback in precious metals and resource-related themes [7][9] - Local two sessions focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening technology, with a positive outlook on sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, urban renewal, and domestic consumption [4][14] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - Multiple provinces and cities have deployed tasks for the development of the commercial aerospace industry, with significant support for companies like Tianbing Technology and Tianzhang Satellite [14][19] - The report anticipates the establishment of a world-leading space computing center in China by 2030, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and space solar power [14][24] - Investment recommendations include the mid-to-large reusable liquid rocket manufacturing and launch service industry chain, as well as space photovoltaic technologies such as gallium arsenide and perovskite batteries [14][19] Group 3: Robotics - Various regions have set development tasks for the robotics industry, aiming for a scale exceeding 200 billion yuan in Shandong [15][39] - The upcoming release of Tesla's third-generation Optimus robot is expected to significantly boost production capacity, with an anticipated annual output of 1 million units [15][39] - Investment focus includes key components like sensors and electronic skin, as well as core supply chains for companies like Tesla and Yuzhu [15][39] Group 4: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is positioned as a key strategy to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand, with significant projects planned across various cities [16][46] - The report outlines a projected 60,015 urban renewal projects nationwide in 2024, with a total investment of 2.9 trillion yuan, focusing on old community renovations and underground infrastructure [16][46] - Recommended investments include construction materials such as waterproofing, piping, and coatings, as well as urban infrastructure projects [16][17] Group 5: Domestic Consumption - The shift in consumer spending from goods to services is highlighted, with service consumption projected to account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure by 2025 [18] - Initiatives to develop new consumption scenarios, such as the pet economy and event-driven economies, are being promoted across various provinces [18][41] - Investment opportunities are identified in travel, hospitality, and emerging consumer goods, driven by improved consumer sentiment and holiday policies [18][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The domestic first commercial SAR satellite closed-loop service system is taking shape as Tianyi Research Institute aims for an A-share IPO [1] - The national supercomputing internet core node has been launched, establishing a foundation for a trillion-parameter model computing capacity with a 30,000-card domestic cluster [1] - Tesla has achieved mass production of dry electrode technology, and Changan Automobile will be the first globally to equip sodium-ion batteries from CATL in its vehicles [2] - The State Grid has clarified that the "14th Five-Year Plan" investment will focus on green transformation and enhancing cross-regional transmission capacity [2] - The offshore wind power sector in China is progressing, with an expected addition of 6.12 GW of new grid-connected capacity by 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Commercial Space and AI Computing - Tianyi Research Institute is preparing for an A-share IPO, establishing a commercial SAR satellite service system [1] - The national supercomputing internet core node will provide efficient computing services for large-scale AI applications [1] Section 2: Battery Technology and Electric Vehicles - Tesla's dry electrode technology is now in mass production, significantly reducing costs and energy consumption [2] - Changan Automobile's introduction of sodium-ion batteries marks a significant advancement in battery technology for electric vehicles [2] Section 3: Power Infrastructure and Renewable Energy - The State Grid's investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" will reach 4 trillion yuan, focusing on green energy and quality improvement [2] - The offshore wind power sector is set to expand with significant new installations planned for 2025 [2]

Macro and Financial - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $339.91 billion by the end of January 2026, up by $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025. Gold reserves also rose for 15 months, totaling 7.419 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces [2] - The State Council is exploring policies to promote effective investment, focusing on major projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [3] - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments reiterated the ban on virtual currency activities, classifying them as illegal financial activities within the country [4] - A new document was released to cultivate data circulation service institutions, aiming to enhance the marketization and value of data elements [5] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced strict regulations on the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens based on domestic assets overseas [10] - The domestic ETF market has become the largest in Asia, with a market size of approximately $860 billion by the end of 2025, surpassing Japan. The net inflow of funds into ETFs exceeded 1.16 trillion yuan, with bond ETFs attracting 552.7 billion yuan [11] - A joint effort by five departments targets illegal "agent rights protection" activities on social media platforms, particularly in short videos and live streaming [12] - Gold and silver prices have shown significant volatility, deviating from stability, with major mining companies experiencing drastic stock price changes [13][14] - The European Commission has initiated an investigation into Chinese company Goldwind Technology under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, raising concerns about trade barriers [15][16] Business and Industry - The Ministry of Commerce is developing a "1+N" policy system to foster new growth points in service consumption, with specific support policies for various sectors [20] - Nationwide implementation of direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals has been achieved, with efforts to include more workers in the maternity insurance coverage [21] - Hainan province is launching a "zero tariff" policy for daily consumer goods, with the first five duty-free stores set to open [22] - Kuaishou has been fined 119 million yuan for issues related to inappropriate content on its platform and has committed to rectifying the situation [23] - Elon Musk emphasized the importance of energy production and capacity over traditional currency in future economic frameworks [24] - China's commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of high-frequency launches by 2026, following successful tests of reusable spacecraft technology [24] - Nvidia's CEO expressed optimism about AI development, indicating that demand for AI infrastructure will remain strong in the coming years [25]

昨天，上海市人民政府新闻办公室举行市政府主题记者会。市政府副秘书长、市发展改革委主任顾军， 市经济信息化委主任汤文侃，市商务委主任申卫华，市科委主任骆大进，市人力资源社会保障局局长杨 佳瑛和市民政局副局长娄国剑出席记者会，并回答中外记者提问。 经济：今年GDP增长预期目标为5%左右 2025年上海GDP增速跑赢全国，顾军表示，今年是"十五五"开局之年，全市生产总值增长预期目标为 5%左右，将着力以国家战略为牵引，全面深化改革开放；着力促消费扩投资稳外需，积极扩大有效需 求；着力培育壮大新质生产力，引领产业转型升级；着力深化改革创新，促进服务业优质高效发展；着 力以民心工程、民生实事为抓手，保障和改善民生。 产业发展方面，汤文侃表示，"十五五"期间上海将瞄准智能终端、商业航天、低空经济等新赛道，再造 万亿级产业新增量；因地制宜打造25个千亿级细分赛道；在工业企业百元营收成本比全国低3.6元的基 础上，优化产业营商环境，让各类优秀企业在上海成就更大事业。 "五个中心"：提升城市能级 取得更大突破 "五个中心"建设是上海"十五五"期间的重中之重。"今年我们将在提升城市能级和核心竞争力上取得更 大突破。"顾军表示，将 ...

投资建议 见"股票组合"。 行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2026/2/2-2026/2/6）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 0.38%，在申万 31 个一级行业分 类中排名第 11；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 1.33%。2026 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 6.72%，在申万 31 个一 级行业分类中排名第 9；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.29%。 核心观点 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 工程机械全球大周期向上，土方内外销超预期。根据中国工程机械工业协会，2026 年 1 月销售各类挖掘机 1870 8 台，同比增长 49.5%。其中国内销量 8723 台，同比增长 61.4%；出口量 9985 台，同比增长 40.5%，土方内外 销超预期。25Q4 卡特彼勒工程机械板块北美、EAME、亚太、拉丁美洲收入增速分别为+23%、+18%、-7%、+6%，2 5Q3 北美、EAME、亚太、拉丁美洲收入增速分别为+8%、+6%、+3%、-1%，工程机械板块北美、EAME 地区加速增 长，拉美转正，中国工程机械内外销加速叠加海外龙头 ...