文 |《瞭望》新闻周刊记者 张翊飞 金融是国民经济的血脉，是国家核心竞争力的重要组成部分。 中国国际金融股份有限公司（以下简称"中金公司"）自诞生之日起，便肩负着探索中国资本市场发展路 径、服务国家改革开放的重要使命。 三十年来，中金公司既是中国改革开放的见证者与推动者，也是这一伟大进程的受益者。公司始终秉 持"以国为怀"的初心，将服务国家战略、促进资本市场健康发展作为根本任务，在融入国家改革发展大 局中不断成长壮大 三十年来，中金公司既是中国改革开放的见证者与推动者，也是这一伟大进程的受益者。公司始终秉 持"以国为怀"的初心，将服务国家战略、促进资本市场健康发展作为根本任务，在融入国家改革发展大 局中不断成长壮大。 三十而立，新程已启。立足新的历史节点，中金公司正以更加坚定的步伐，迈向更高质量的发展新阶 段，为金融强国建设注入强劲动能。 资本市场的"国家队" 中金公司的成立具有鲜明的时代烙印。20世纪90年代，中国正处于建立现代企业制度、深化国有企业改 革的关键时期。设立中金公司填补了我国专业投资银行的空白，其以投行业务为主导的发展模式，与当 时以经纪业务为主的券商形成鲜明对比，凸显其服务国家战略的独特定位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the integration of biodiversity protection into corporate strategies, highlighting the shift from viewing environmental protection as a burden to recognizing it as an asset that can enhance long-term resilience and attract capital [3][4][5]. Group 1: Corporate Initiatives in Biodiversity - China Three Gorges International Corporation has established a fish breeding center at the Brazil's Salto Hydropower Station, demonstrating a commitment to ecological protection through practical initiatives [3]. - The company collaborates with São Paulo University to control the invasive species golden mussel using genetic technology, showcasing a proactive approach to biodiversity management [3]. Group 2: Financial Models and Sustainable Investment - Professor Qiu Ciguang from Shanghai Jiao Tong University proposes a "three-dimensional model" for financial investment that incorporates ESG impact as a critical dimension alongside risk and return [4]. - The article discusses the importance of developing business models that balance production and ecological protection, advocating for government or philanthropic intervention in extreme cases [4]. Group 3: Financial Tools for Sustainable Development - Investment tools such as green bonds and green loans are highlighted as essential for achieving sustainable finance, allowing companies to integrate international ESG principles into their operations [4]. - Suzano, a Brazilian forestry giant, links 46% of its financial investment portfolio to ESG goals and issued its first green panda bond in China for sustainable land management [5]. Group 4: Future Directions in Capital and Ecology - The article suggests that ecological protection is becoming a core component of corporate strategy rather than merely an added cost, indicating a shift in how businesses approach sustainability [5]. - The emerging mechanism of "protectors earning money and destroyers paying" is seen as a promising direction for aligning capital with ecological protection efforts [5].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that extreme "resonance" among the S&P 500, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index often predicts a reversal in the dollar's strong cycle [3][7] - The analysis of the past 25 years shows two strong signals for a weaker dollar in the next six months: the "Goldilocks" scenario and the "Broad Up" scenario [3][10] Group 1: Goldilocks Scenario - The "Goldilocks" scenario occurs when the S&P 500 rises over 1.25 standard deviations while both the dollar index and Treasury yields fall over 1.25 standard deviations [8][15] - This scenario has appeared 12 times in the past 25 years, leading to an average dollar index decline of 3.3% over six months, with an 83% success rate for predicting dollar weakness [10][15] - The strong performance of the British pound in this scenario may reflect expectations of a soft landing for the economy [6][15] Group 2: Broad Up Scenario - The "Broad Up" scenario is characterized by simultaneous increases in the S&P 500, dollar index, and Treasury yields, each exceeding 1.25 standard deviations [16][20] - This scenario has occurred 26 times in the past 25 years, resulting in an average dollar index decline of 2.7% over six months, with a moderate success rate of 73% [16][20] - The occurrence of this scenario suggests a phase of global economic catch-up following a period of U.S. exceptionalism, with the Australian dollar often performing well during synchronized global economic recovery [20]

对于当前关税战的情况，美国高盛集团警告所有美国人，到2025年年底，美国消费者可能将承担55%的关税成本。 意料之内的是，特朗普对高盛集团的报告十分愤怒。其已经在社交媒体上发文，称高盛经济师"应该换人"。但事实上，高盛集团的预估，仍旧太过乐观。 玉渊潭天指出，自今年7月起，来自美国的粮食运输船在该码头靠岸艘次已降为0。如果中国在11月中旬之前仍未重返美国市场，美国损失的对华大豆订单可 能高达1600万吨。 要知道，对于美国豆农而言，失去中国，就等于失去半个市场。 数据显示，2024年美国出口大豆金额达245.8亿美元，位居美国农产品出口首位，其中中国购买量超一半，价值126.4亿美元。 然而，随着中美贸易摩擦升级，中国已大幅减少从美国进口大豆，转而从巴西和阿根廷采购。 5月以来，同一码头每月平均有40多艘来自阿根廷、巴西、乌拉圭等南美国家的粮食运输船靠岸，这些船只90%运输的都是大豆。 而这一切的根源，都可以追溯到特朗普发动的关税战。 对于这一现实情况，特朗普已经恼羞成怒。10月14日，特朗普在社交媒体上的一番发言再次引爆了中美贸易这个火药桶。 特朗普直言中国"故意不购买美国的大豆，使美国豆农面临困难"，并将 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】近期，AI领域的巨额资本开支引发市场关注，但其可持续性也招致疑虑。针对这一担忧，高盛在最新研报中明确指出：当 前AI投资规模远未过热，这一投资水平具备坚实的可持续基础，意味着AI基础设施建设的宏观故事依然稳健。 报告指出，尽管AI基础设施投资在名义金额上屡创新高，但与历史上的重大技术周期相比仍显"克制"。自2023年中以来，AI投资持续加速，仅2025 年，公开美国企业在AI相关基础设施上的收入增量就达到约3000亿美元。 然而，高盛强调，历史上铁路、电气化、IT等技术周期的投资高峰占GDP比重高达2-5%，而当前美国AI投资占GDP的比例尚不足1%，远低于历史峰 值。这表明，当前的投入规模远未达到"过热"状态。 最为关键的论据在于经济效益。高盛测算，生成式AI带来的生产力提升将为美国经济创造20万亿美元的现值，其中高达8万亿美元将作为资本收益流 向美国企业。 这一预期收益，将远超当前和未来可预见的AI投资总额。报告指出，即使在悲观或乐观的不同假设下，这一收益区间也在5-19万亿美元，显著高于 投资成本。更重要的是，这一测算尚未计入海外利润、新兴利润池或通用人工智能（AGI）可能带来的巨 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's latest research indicates that extreme "resonance" among the S&P 500, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index often signals an impending reversal in the dollar's strong cycle [1][4] Group 1: Dollar Weakness Signals - The analysis of the past 25 years shows that extreme fluctuations (over 1.25 standard deviations) in the S&P 500, U.S. dollar index, and 10-year Treasury yields provide two strong signals indicating a weaker dollar in the next six months [1][5] - The "Goldilocks" scenario, characterized by a significant rise in the S&P 500 (over 1.25 standard deviations) while the dollar and Treasury yields decline (both over 1.25 standard deviations), has occurred 12 times historically, leading to an average 3.3% decline in the dollar index over six months [5][7] - The statistical analysis shows a high correlation between this scenario and dollar weakness, with an 83% success rate in predicting a weaker dollar following these occurrences [7] Group 2: Currency Performance Post Signals - In the "Goldilocks" scenario, the British pound tends to perform the best, reflecting expectations of a soft landing in the economy [4][10] - The "Broad Up" scenario, where all three indicators rise over 1.25 standard deviations, has occurred 26 times, indicating a 2.7% average decline in the dollar index over the following six months [13] - This scenario suggests a phase of global economic catch-up, where strong U.S. performance leads to a recovery in other regions, causing the dollar to give back gains [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that 2024 is a significant year for gold, with prices rising dramatically, and suggests that gold is increasingly viewed as a crucial asset in investment portfolios [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have surged over 61% as of October 17, 2025, marking one of the largest annual increases since 2000 [3]. - The price of gold is projected to potentially reach $5,000 to $10,000, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among market leaders [5]. Group 2: Investment Perspectives - Ray Dalio argues that gold should be viewed as a form of currency rather than just a metal, highlighting its historical role as a stable monetary asset [10][11]. - Dalio believes that gold serves as a hedge against debt and currency devaluation, making it a fundamental investment choice [13][14]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Assets - Gold is preferred over other metals like silver and platinum due to its unique position as a widely accepted form of "non-debt" currency, which carries no credit risk [16][17]. - Unlike bonds, which are subject to government credit risk, gold is seen as a true "risk-free asset" in many institutional portfolios [36][37]. Group 4: Strategic Asset Allocation - Dalio suggests that a strategic allocation of 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio should be in gold to optimize risk and return [30][31]. - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, especially in light of potential economic downturns [24][28]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The rise of gold ETFs has increased market liquidity and accessibility, but they are not the primary driver of gold price increases [35]. - Institutional investors are increasingly reallocating assets from U.S. Treasuries to gold, reflecting a shift in perception of risk and value [36][38].

Group 1: ABB's Robotics Division Sale - ABB Ltd. has sold its robotics division to SoftBank Group for approximately $38 billion, marking a significant move in its multi-year simplification effort [1][2] - The sale reflects a trend where companies with valuable technology assets opt for outright sales instead of IPOs or spinoffs when market conditions are unfavorable [2][3] - This transaction provides ABB with immediate cash and balance-sheet flexibility, but eliminates the potential for shareholders to gain direct ownership in a high-growth unit [2] Group 2: Coty's Consideration of CoverGirl - Coty Inc. is exploring options to either sell or spin off its CoverGirl cosmetics brand as part of a strategy to simplify its beauty portfolio and reduce debt [4][5] - CoverGirl has faced challenges in maintaining relevance against digital-first and luxury competitors, and a sale could enhance Coty's balance sheet while a spinoff might unlock long-term brand value [5][6] - Coty has prior experience with divestitures, having previously reduced its stake in Wella, and investors are keen to see how much value can be extracted from CoverGirl [6] Group 3: Goldman Sachs and Versant Spinoff Loan - Goldman Sachs is seeking investors for a $2.1 billion loan related to Comcast's upcoming Versant spinoff, which will be part of a larger debt package including a bond offering [7] - The financing indicates that Versant is expected to pay a multi-billion dollar dividend to Comcast at the time of the spinoff, consistent with recent spinoff trends [7]

Group 1 - UBS has upgraded its global stock rating to "attractive" due to stronger-than-expected economic growth, easing tariff pressures, and a robust investment cycle driven by artificial intelligence [1][3][4] - The firm has specifically raised the rating for Chinese technology stocks to the most attractive category, citing increasing confidence in the ability of leading Chinese tech companies to monetize artificial intelligence [2][6] - UBS forecasts global earnings growth for 2025 to be revised up from 6.5% to 8%, with expectations of high single-digit growth next year, supported by improved economic conditions and favorable fiscal policies [5][6] Group 2 - UBS emphasizes the structural trends supporting the market, including strategic collaborations among AI-leading companies, which enhance confidence in sustainable capital expenditure cycles and higher revenue visibility [4][5] - The firm notes that significant collaborations between large enterprises and AI chip companies are expected to drive capital expenditures related to AI beyond initial forecasts, indicating long-term resilience [4] - UBS highlights that foreign investment in the Chinese stock market is recovering, with net inflows reaching $4.6 billion in September, the highest monthly figure since November 2024 [6][7] Group 3 - Investor sentiment towards Chinese stocks is increasingly optimistic, with over 61% of global institutional investors believing emerging market stocks will outperform developed markets, up from 49% in June [7] - The report indicates that more than half of the surveyed investors view the prospects for the Chinese stock market favorably, reflecting growing confidence in China's economic policies [7] - UBS continues to recommend that investors reassess their stock allocations, suggesting a shift from cash or bonds to equities, particularly in the technology sector [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aiming to provide efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 stocks globally [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform is designed to leverage advanced model technology to enhance the quality and efficiency of research services provided to clients [1]. Group 2: Research Focus and Updates - The platform features daily updates on research focuses and timely push notifications of selected articles, ensuring that users stay informed about market trends [4]. - CICC provides live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots, enhancing the accessibility of expert insights [4]. Group 3: Data and Frameworks - The platform includes over 160 industry research frameworks and more than 40 premium databases, offering comprehensive data resources for users [10]. - CICC Insight also features an AI search function that allows users to filter key points and engage in intelligent Q&A, facilitating a more interactive research experience [10].