各位老铁，我是帮主郑重。今儿美联储主席鲍威尔又出来"吹风"了，说绝大多数委员都觉得今年晚些时候会降息。这事儿对咱们中长线投资有啥影响？咱 们好好唠唠。 第三，中长线布局策略。既然美联储大概率降息，咱们可以提前埋伏三个方向：一是高股息资产，比如公用事业和消费龙头，降息周期里这类股票能提 供稳定收益；二是成长股，尤其是科技和医疗，低利率环境下它们的估值弹性更大；三是黄金，历史数据显示，降息预期升温时黄金通常会走牛。但要 避开那些对利率敏感的行业，比如房地产，现在美国房贷利率已经很高，降息可能只是杯水车薪。 先得把这事儿的背景搞清楚。鲍威尔在葡萄牙辛特拉开会的时候，被问到如果没有特朗普的关税政策，美联储是不是早就降息了。他直接承认："没错， 如果不是关税导致通胀预测大幅上升，我们2025年就已经开始降息，现在政策会更宽松。"这就像你本来打算给孩子买玩具，结果突然要交一笔意外税 费，只能先把玩具钱攥在手里。特朗普4月份搞的"对等关税"，让进口商品成本上升，直接打乱了美联储的节奏。 不过鲍威尔也留了活口，他说"绝大多数委员预计今年晚些时候降息是合适的"。这就像老师虽然没明说考试范围，但暗示重点在某几章。根据6月份的点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of the stock market in July, suggesting a potential upward trend based on past data and current market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Since 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have both seen a 60% probability of rising in July, with 12 instances of increases [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index has a 50% probability of rising in July, with 10 instances of increases [1]. - The ChiNext Index shows no significant "July rebound" characteristic, with only 47% of the years since 2010 seeing increases in July [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The defense industry has the highest increase probability in July at 70%, followed by agriculture, basic chemicals, environmental protection, and beauty care at 65% [1]. - Several sectors, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and communications, have a 60% probability of rising in July [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - As of late June, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3400 points, with expectations for further upward movement in July [2]. - Most brokerages predict that the index may surpass last year's high, with a focus on the technology sector [2]. - Factors driving the market include improvements in U.S.-China relations and the upcoming mid-year earnings reports, which are expected to enhance profitability contributions [2][3].

【环球网财经综合报道】上半年正式收官，港股IPO市场热度持续攀升。数据显示，今年上半年港交所完成43宗IPO项目，同比增加13家，增幅 43.33%；募资总额达1067.13亿港元，较去年同期增长688.54%，超2024年全年募资额。 谈及港股IPO火热原因，高盛亚洲相关人士指出，中国经济刺激政策带动全球投资者关注中国资产，监管支持力度大，上市企业质量高。中信证 券研报预计，A股公司港股发行潮或在2025年下半年，多家A股上市公司将分拆子公司赴港上市。 展望下半年，德勤预计2025年全年香港新股市场80只新股融资2000亿港元，除25只"A+H"新股外，多数项目来自科技、传媒、电信及消费业。德 勤相关负责人表示，若无重大负面干扰，对香港2025年争取全球IPO市场领先地位持审慎乐观态度。（陈十一） 从单个项目募资规模看，募资超100亿港元的IPO项目有宁德时代、恒瑞医药、海天味业3家；募资20亿至100亿港元的有三花智控等5家。 港交所上市通道迎来申报热潮，截至6月30日，220家企业处于IPO排队状态，较2024年同期显著增长，仅6月27日就有16家内地企业递表申请主板 上市，其中科技行业占10家。 "A ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a significant surge in activity, with a notable increase in the number of companies going public and the amount of capital raised, indicating a robust recovery and potential for future growth in the sector [3][4][6]. IPO Activity Overview - On June 30, 2025, eight companies launched their IPOs in Hong Kong, with the remaining seven continuing their offering for 2-4 days [4]. - The previous week saw a record 16 companies submit their listing applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, spanning various industries including robotics, semiconductors, and biomedicine [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong welcomed 43 new IPOs, a 43.3% increase from 30 in the same period of 2024, raising a total of approximately 1,067.1 million HKD, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [6][10]. Fundraising Performance - The top three IPOs in terms of fundraising in the first half of 2025 were Ningde Times, Hengrui Medicine, and Haitian Flavoring, raising 410.1 million HKD, 113.7 million HKD, and 101.3 million HKD respectively, accounting for 58.6% of the total funds raised [10][14]. - The industrial sector led in fundraising, primarily due to Ningde Times, while healthcare and consumer sectors had the highest number of new listings [14]. Market Trends - In the first half of 2025, 27 out of 43 new IPOs saw their stock prices rise on the first day of trading, with a first-day drop rate of 30.2%, indicating a decline in the overall trend of IPO failures compared to previous years [15][16]. - The most significant first-day price increases were observed in biotech companies, with the top performers being Ying'en Biotechnology and Yaojie Ankang, which rose by 116.7% and 78.7% respectively [16][18]. Subscription and Demand - The demand for IPOs has been exceptionally high, with several companies experiencing oversubscription rates exceeding 1,000 times, including Blukoo, which had a staggering 6,000 times oversubscription [19][20]. - The average subscription rate for new stocks has shown significant variation, with some companies achieving over 50% success rates for first-hand allocations [19]. Regulatory and Policy Environment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has seen a substantial increase in new applications, with around 180 companies applying in the first half of 2025, compared to 73 in the same period of 2024 [21][24]. - Recent policy changes have allowed companies listed in Hong Kong to return to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, enhancing the interconnectedness of the capital markets in the Greater Bay Area [25][26].

Group 1 - The recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel has led to an unexpected improvement in geopolitical relations, resulting in a rapid recovery of market risk appetite [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee meeting indicated a bearish impact on the bond market, with the removal of "timely rate cuts" and the re-emphasis on preventing capital outflow, which may dampen market sentiment [1][2] - The meeting's language changes suggest a reduced necessity for short-term policy intensification, as the acknowledgment of domestic growth policy effectiveness implies a lower probability of further policy easing [2] Group 2 - Recent consumer data for May exceeded market expectations, indicating an improvement in demand, particularly in discretionary spending categories such as home appliances and clothing, although automotive sales growth remains sluggish [3][4] - The strong performance in the real estate sector, particularly in completion cycles, is driven by government subsidy policies, which aligns with the overall consumer spending trends [4] - The bond market is expected to strengthen further, driven by lower funding costs below policy rates and improving fundamental conditions, despite the central bank's recent meeting potentially suppressing expectations for monetary easing [4]

本报记者 毛艺融 6月30日，3只新股在港交所上市，分别是泰德医药、IFBH、云知声。2025年上半年，港股新股市场火热。Wind资讯数据 显示，截至6月30日，年内港股共有43只新股上市，首发募资合计1067亿港元，数量和规模较去年同期分别增长43%、708%。 近期港股IPO节奏明显加快，仅6月份，就有15家新股在港上市。此外，6月底还有多家企业扎堆递表。港交所官网显示， 仅6月25日至6月30日，就有39家企业递交上市申请。当前，港交所IPO储备项目相当丰富。据Wind资讯数据统计，按最新公告 日计，目前还有超200家企业的状态为"处理中"。 华商律师事务所执行合伙人齐梦林对《证券日报》记者表示，上半年港股IPO十分火热，这体现了市场信心与流动性恢 复。 内地公司占比超九成 国际投资者也在积极参与港股IPO市场。高盛中国股票策略分析师付思表示，今年参与港股IPO的基石投资者中，不乏海外 主权基金、养老金等长线投资者。付思说："这轮赴港上市的企业质地都不错，吸引更多海外长线资金参与。" 齐梦林提醒，有意赴港上市的A股企业，需建立两地合规团队，统一协调A股和H股信息披露，建立内幕信息隔离机制，避 免静默期违 ...

基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | | 高 | 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 证券研究报告 2025年6月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：近两周ETF产品整体表现较好。主要宽基ETF中，创业板指ETF涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，金融地产行业ETF涨幅最大。近两周， 主要宽基ETF中，中证A500、中证1000、科创50ETF资金净流入，沪深300ETF资金净流出额最大。科技ETF在年初大幅流出后，自3月起转为资金流入，近两 周资金流入速度有所减缓，医药和金融地产ETF资金由净流出转为净流入，军工ETF资金流入速度放缓。债券ETF方面，受债市反弹影响，信用债ETF资金加 ...

Group 1 - A total of 8 Hong Kong companies launched their IPOs on June 30, including companies from various sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, and biomedicine [1] - In the first half of 2025, Hong Kong welcomed 43 new IPOs, a 43.3% increase from 30 in the same period of 2024, with total funds raised amounting to approximately HKD 1,067.1 billion [2][4] - The top three IPOs by fundraising in the first half of 2025 were Ningde Times, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, and Hai Tian Wei Ye, raising HKD 410.1 billion, HKD 113.7 billion, and HKD 101.3 billion respectively, accounting for 58.6% of the total IPO fundraising [7][8] Group 2 - The healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors had the highest number of new listings in 2025, with 10 and 8 companies respectively, while the industrial sector led in fundraising [9] - Among the 43 new IPOs, 27 companies saw their stock prices rise on the first day of trading, resulting in a first-day drop rate of 30.2% [9][10] - The most significant first-day price increases were recorded by Ying En Biotechnology-B and Yao Jie An Kang-B, with gains of 116.7% and 78.7% respectively [10][12] Group 3 - The IPO subscription rates were notably high, with several companies experiencing over 1,000 times subscription, including Bluco, which had a subscription rate of 6,000 times [13][14] - A total of 35 out of 43 companies triggered the allocation mechanism, indicating a higher success rate for companies that utilized this strategy [16] - As of June 30, 2025, there were 134 companies that received approval for overseas IPOs, with over 160 companies currently in the queue for Hong Kong IPOs [18]

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor does it discuss their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The report primarily focuses on fund market performance, fund issuance, ESG products, and ETF market trends. There are no references to quantitative models or factors in the provided documents.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the consumer and manufacturing sectors, while expressing optimism for technology and financial sectors [4]. Core Insights - The global economy is expected to show a convergence in economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, driven by a slowdown in the US economy [2]. - The report highlights that while the overall performance in Q1 2025 was strong, future concerns include tariff impacts, growth slowdowns, and high funding costs affecting corporate profitability [2]. - Emerging markets are seen as having marginally favorable conditions due to a weaker dollar, looser monetary policies, and relatively low valuations, although high-interest environments may constrain absolute performance [3]. Regional Outlook - The report is optimistic about opportunities in non-US regions, particularly Europe, while suggesting a balanced allocation strategy due to expected regional performance differentiation being less pronounced than in the first half of the year [3]. - In Europe, recent policy shifts are expected to support internal risk appetite recovery, despite trade uncertainties [3]. - Japan's market outlook is cautious due to weak local policies and economic growth, although structural opportunities remain as the country emerges from deflation [3]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a preference for technology sectors (communication, software, advertising) and industrial sectors (power equipment, automation) for the second half of 2025, while maintaining caution towards consumer sectors and commodities [4]. - The technology sector, excluding electronics, and financial sectors are expected to outperform, while consumer and upstream materials are relatively weaker [4]. - The report notes that companies in the consumer, financial, and localized services sectors are less affected by tariffs, while manufacturing and bulk materials face significant impacts [4].