期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 3 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 豆粕：利多因素带动 | 盘面偏强运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格反弹修复 | 郑糖价格短期略强 6 | | 油脂板块：短期缺乏利多驱动，油脂震荡偏弱运行 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力继续体现 | 价格延续回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货企稳反弹，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 | 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：新季果质量较差 | 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 | 棉价震荡略偏强 12 | | 钢材：宏观影响消退，钢价冲高回落 14 | | --- | | 双焦：高位震荡 等待回调后做多的机会 14 | | 铁矿：高位偏空为主 15 | | 铁合金：库存持续攀升，继续作为空头配置 16 | | 贵金属：政策风向转变，短期承压延续调整 17 | | --- | | 铜：价格短期回踩，长期趋势不变 18 | | 氧化铝：供应端减产仍未落地 氧化铝偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic thermal coal prices remained stable. As of October 31, the quotation for 5500K coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The coal market atmosphere was still optimistic, with good purchasing enthusiasm among traders and many coal mines raising prices. The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. Although the demand in southern coastal cities declined in the off - season after the October cooling, the low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon that emerged in September 2025 might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. As of October 31, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.169 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons and 2.729 million tons lower than the same period last year, which supported the port coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, some positive factors were mostly realized in October. As coal prices rose, market competition intensified, and it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News and Market Trends - In the first three quarters, the installed capacity of coal - fired power was 1.23 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The total social electricity consumption in the country was 7.77 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. It was expected that the electricity consumption growth rate in the fourth quarter would be higher than that in the third quarter, and the annual social electricity consumption would increase by about 5% year - on - year. From January to September, the coal mining and washing industry achieved a profit of 22.464 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.1%. The autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed one day ahead of schedule, and the daily freight volume was expected to quickly rebound to over 1.2 million tons [5][7][8][10]. 3.2 Market Data Tracking - On October 29, the Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Price Index was 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. As of October 30, the FOB price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port was 768 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared to October 23. Shipping freight rates were adjusted downward this week. As of October 30, the China Coastal Coal Freight Composite Index was 943.06 points, a decrease of 6.35 points from October 23; the BDI freight index also declined. As of October 30, the spot prices of Q5800, Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port were 823.11, 768.00, 672.00, and 587.00 yuan/ton respectively. The main contract of Zhengzhou Coal was 33.4 yuan/ton higher than the 5500 - calorie thermal coal quotation at Qinhuangdao Port. As of October 30, the Q5500 Indonesian coal ex - warehouse price at Guangzhou Port was 768.62 yuan/ton, 0.62 yuan/ton higher than the domestic Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal quotation. As of October 24, the Newcastle thermal coal spot price was 103.74 US dollars/ton. As of October 28, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons, and the number of ships at anchor was 17 [13][15][23][24][26]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The market expected a supply contraction at the end of the year, which supported the coal price. The low coal inventory in coastal power plants meant there was still restocking demand. The La Nina phenomenon might last until December 2025 - February 2026, but its impact on winter temperatures was uncertain. The low inventory at ports supported the coal price. After the China - US summit, some tariffs were lowered and suspended for one year. Overall, it was expected that the upward trend of coal prices would slow down and remain in a high - level volatile state [3][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Coke**: Cost strongly supports coke, which is operating at a high level. After the second round of price increases for coke landed this week, the cost - strong support drove the spot market to run strongly. However, downstream steel mill profits shrank, and demand - side pressure emerged due to environmental restrictions in the north. As of the week ending October 31, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.108 million tons, with a slight increase of 800 tons week - on - week. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton, improving by 9 yuan week - on - week but still in a loss. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a sharp decrease of 35,400 tons per day week - on - week, and the profitability rate dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02%. Overall, coke supply stabilized, demand declined, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. But due to the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, coke futures remained at a high level [5][45]. - **Coking Coal**: Supported by strong expectations, coking coal fluctuated strongly. The spot market of coking coal was stable with a slight upward trend. On October 30, the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average output of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 758,000 tons, a slight decrease of 3,000 tons per day week - on - week. From October 20 - 25, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the 288 Port was 4,814, a decrease of 2,406 week - on - week. The daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was basically flat, with a slight increase of 800 tons. The upward drive mainly came from the macro - benefits of the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the strong expectations for coking coal supply from safety inspections and anti - cut - throat competition [6][48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - position price was 1,570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.29%, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.10%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse price was 1,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.03%, a month - on - month increase of 6.16%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32% [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,390 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6.11%, a month - on - month increase of 8.59%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.80%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.41%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at the Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.73% [7]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The report presented the charts of the basis of coke 01 and 05 contracts, as well as coking coal 01 and 05 contracts, but no specific data analysis was provided [13][14][16] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Coke**: As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 72.74%, a decrease of 0.42% week - on - week and 0.36% year - on - year. The daily coke output was 513,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons week - on - week and 17,000 tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill coking plants was 85.21%, an increase of 0.18% week - on - week and a decrease of 1.37% year - on - year. The daily output was 462,100 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 6,800 tons year - on - year [17]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 31, the operating rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, a decrease of 0.40% week - on - week. The daily average output of clean coal was 265,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The clean coal inventory was 2.844 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.80%, a decrease of 0.30% week - on - week and 3.40% year - on - year. The daily average output of coking coal from mines was 758,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons week - on - week and 22,000 tons year - on - year [21]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Coke**: As of October 31, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60% week - on - week and 16.02% year - on - year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33% week - on - week and an increase of 0.21% year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96% week - on - week and 0.69% year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons week - on - week and an increase of 8,900 tons year - on - year [23]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 31, the total inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 10.5248 million tons, with an available days of 12.3 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 855,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons day - on - day. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9632 million tons, with an available days of 13.36 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 596,000 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons day - on - day. The total daily consumption was 1.4517 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons day - on - day [26]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Coke**: As of October 31, the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 375,200 tons, unchanged week - on - week and a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 598,700 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 214,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.291 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 503,000 tons year - on - year. The total inventory of four major ports was 2.111 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year [28]. - **Coking Coal**: As of October 31, the clean coal inventory of 523 coking coal mines was 164,500 tons, a decrease of 250,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.261 million tons year - on - year. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 10.5248 million tons, an increase of 227,800 tons week - on - week and an increase of 1.3877 million tons year - on - year. The total port inventory was 2.9015 million tons, an increase of 145,000 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.3508 million tons year - on - year. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.9632 million tons, an increase of 133,600 tons week - on - week and an increase of 539,200 tons year - on - year [36]. 3.2.4 Coking Profit - As of October 31, the profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [44] 3.3 Conclusion - **Coke**: The second - round price increase landed, with cost strongly supporting the spot market. However, demand - side pressure emerged. The daily average coke output was basically stable, and coking plants were still in a loss, with a desire to raise prices. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills decreased significantly, and the profitability rate declined. Overall, the fundamentals weakened marginally, but the market atmosphere improved, and coke futures remained at a high level [45]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. The supply - demand pattern did not change significantly, and the upward drive came from macro - benefits of Sino - US trade relations and strong expectations for supply [48].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of "index differentiation and structural adjustment," while the Hong Kong market remains relatively stable, supported by the energy sector, reflecting differing risk and opportunity assessments by domestic and foreign investors [1] Market Overview - A-shares are undergoing narrow consolidation with significant structural characteristics, as the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 1.06% and 1.37%, respectively [2] - The Hong Kong market is showing more stability, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.58%, supported by energy and financial stocks, while the Hang Seng Technology Index slightly declined by 0.24% [2] Sector Analysis - A-share sectors are showing a clear divide, with value defensive stocks leading gains, such as the coal sector rising by 2.26% due to a 10.29% increase in coking coal prices over the past 60 days [3] - The energy sector in the Hong Kong market is also performing well, with the energy index up by 2.70%, driven by high international energy prices and domestic winter stocking expectations [4] Market Drivers - The policy environment is currently in a "window period after favorable policies are realized," lacking short-term catalysts, with expectations for new policies to be implemented soon [5] - After the third quarter reports, institutional reallocation is evident, with the electronic sector's allocation exceeding 25%, the highest since 2010, leading to profit-taking pressures [6] Investment Recommendations - The market is in a "style switching and structural opportunity-seeking" phase, focusing on low-valuation and policy-driven opportunities while managing risks in growth sectors [7] - The cyclical and resource sectors should be approached with a dual logic of "price support and profit recovery," particularly in gold and copper, which are expected to see price increases due to long-term global easing trends [8] Overall Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment in the short term, while the Hong Kong market is supported by low valuations and energy stocks [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on November 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.06% and 1.37% respectively [1] - The total trading volume across the market was approximately 1.4 trillion CNY, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day, with nearly 2,600 stocks declining [2] Sector Performance - Energy sectors such as coal and oil & gas saw gains, with notable increases in stocks like Antai Group, China Coal Energy, and Jincheng Anthracite Mining [13][14] - Conversely, the precious metals sector, particularly jewelry stocks, faced significant declines, with companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang experiencing drops of over 7% [6][11] Specific Stock Movements - Chow Tai Fook's stock price fell by 7.62% to 14.060 CNY, leading the decline among the Hang Seng Index constituents [6][11] - The precious metals index dropped, with several companies such as Goldwind and Hunan Gold also reporting significant losses [10][12] - Cleantech saw a sharp decline, with its stock hitting the daily limit down of 20% due to regulatory issues regarding financial data misrepresentation [17][20] Regulatory Impact - A recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding tax policies on gold trading is expected to impact market sentiment negatively, particularly affecting the global market due to China's status as the largest gold consumer [12][16]

截至2025年11月3日 13:03，红利低波ETF泰康(560150)上涨1.03%，成交803.59万元。跟踪指数中证红利 低波动指数(H30269)强势上涨1.14%，成分股江阴银行(002807)上涨4.21%，中国石油(601857)上涨 3.93%，陕西煤业(601225)上涨3.44%，中文传媒(600373)，渝农商行(601077)等个股跟涨。 资金流入方面，截至10月31日，红利低波ETF泰康(560150)最新资金净流入347.89万元。拉长时间看， 近17个交易日内，合计"吸金"1287.70万元。 截至10月31日，红利低波ETF泰康(560150)近1年净值上涨12.67%，排名可比基金第一。 国泰海通研报认为，煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在2025年第二季度，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下 行风险充分释放。从长期逻辑来看，本轮煤价上涨的核心原因，是5月份以来煤炭行业供需格局发生根 本性逆转。基于这一核心变化，煤炭价格中期向上的大趋势不会改变。 近期，保险资本持续加码银行股配置。国泰海通证券指出，2026年银行业绩预期平稳，营收及归母净利 润均有望实现同比正增，其中利息净收入增速有望优 ...

2025 年 11 月 3 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微降，关注 PMI 景气趋势 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20251103 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 10 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 11 月行业利润同比下 降，维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 9 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4035 万头，环比微降。据此我们预测 肉价至 26Q1 仍有持稳修复可能，维持中性信号，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 10 月普钢行业利润同比转为负增长。PMI 滚动均值环比 下降，维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 10 月浮法玻璃毛利同比延续正增长，维 持玻璃行业景气信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 10 月利润同比转为负增长，继 续等待房屋新开工面积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；10 月制造业 PMI 滚动均值环比和商品房销售数据同比均出现下降，预计基建托底预期有望重启， 将建筑装饰行业调至景气信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 10 月利润同比小幅正增长。 油价尚未形成同比上行趋势，维持炼化、油服行业中性观点。 风 ...

| 申万行业 | 行业 | 成交额 | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | （亿元） | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | | | | | | 石油石化 | 2.85 | 108.96 | 45.11 | 惠博普 | 10.15 | | 煤炭 | 2.47 | 121.29 | 43.28 | 安泰集团 | 9.97 | | 传媒 | 1.84 | 492.11 | 2.32 | 福石控股 | 13.78 | | 银行 | 1.43 | 242.18 | -8.08 | 江阴银行 | 3.16 | | 钢铁 | 1.24 | 147.57 | 30.56 | 包钢股份 | 3.94 | | 农林牧渔 | 0.61 | 139.79 | -3.41 | 众兴菌业 | 10.03 | | 交通运输 | 0.41 | 213.36 | -22.62 | 恒基达鑫 | 10.00 | | 建筑装饰 | 0.37 | 248.46 | -13.18 | 上海港湾 | 10.01 | | 食品饮料 | 0.3 ...

Market Overview - The recent market discussion has focused on the "high-low switch" as A-share companies have completed their Q3 reports, with significant movements in various sectors [3][4] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.06% and 1.37%, respectively [4][5] - The mining sector showed strength, particularly in oil and gas extraction, with major companies like PetroChina and Sinopec experiencing notable increases in stock prices [5][6] Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3, major oil companies reported substantial profits: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) achieved a net profit of 126.28 billion yuan, Sinopec reported 29.98 billion yuan, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reached 101.97 billion yuan [8] - The "three barrels of oil" (CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC) have shown resilience in their earnings, benefiting from increased production and effective cost control, outperforming historical oil price levels [8][9] - OPEC+ is expected to pause production increases in Q1 of next year, balancing market share and signs of oversupply [7] Coal Sector - The coal sector has seen a rebound in prices, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal rising to 674 yuan/ton and coking coal to 1555 yuan/ton, reflecting a recovery from previous lows [10] - The coal industry's profitability is improving, supported by rigid supply and rising costs, which are expected to maintain price stability [10] AI Application Sector - The AI application sector is gaining momentum, with significant increases in stock prices for companies involved in short video games and AI-related technologies [11][12] - As of September, the number of active mobile users for AI applications has surpassed 700 million, indicating strong growth potential in this area [15] - Key investment themes in AI include hardware-software integration, software for consumer markets, enterprise services, and large model deployments for businesses [15]

钍基熔盐概念股大涨，其中宝色股份、海陆重工一字涨停。AI应用端反复活跃，其中吉视传媒、三七 互娱等涨停。煤炭板块再度走强，其中安泰集团13天7板。海南自贸区板块延续强势，其中罗牛山等多 股涨停。量子科技概念股震荡拉升，其中神州信息涨停。 消息面：前三季度存储芯片产业上市公司营收增长16.08%，净利润增长26.44%。工信部推进AI手机、 AI电脑等消费终端换代 加快人形机器人、脑机接口等新一代智能终端研发与应用。 欢迎您在评论中分享自己的看法，大家一起学习和讨论。 探底回升但弱势明显，截止午盘沪指上涨0.05%，深成指下跌1.06%，创业板指下跌1.37%。两市合计超 2500只个股上涨，合计成交额1.38万亿。 电池概念股低开低走集体大跌，截止午盘大跌3.07%，其中海科新源跌超15%，上海洗霸触及跌停。黄 金概念股表现疲软，其中潮宏基触及跌停，湖南黄金下跌3.91%，山金国际、晓程科技、湖南白银等股 跌幅均在2%上方。珠宝首饰、有色金属、半导体等板块跌幅居前。 ...