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新一轮“造富”,河南赢了?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-09 15:52
Core Insights - Labubu's global popularity has propelled Wang Ning, the founder of Pop Mart, into the spotlight as the new richest person in Henan with a net worth of $20.7 billion, surpassing the previous record held by Qin Yinglin of Muyuan Foods at $16.9 billion [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The new consumption companies, including Pop Mart and Mixue Ice City, have seen their stock prices double this year, with a combined market capitalization exceeding HKD 700 billion [2] - Pop Mart's stock price has surged over 170% this year, reaching HKD 250.8, and has increased more than 11 times since the beginning of 2024 [9] - Mixue Ice City has a market capitalization of HKD 214.7 billion, with a stock price increase of 5.41% on June 9 [3][4] Group 2: Business Models and Consumer Trends - New consumption brands are thriving by addressing current consumer pain points, with Mixue Ice City focusing on cost-effectiveness and Pop Mart targeting emotional consumption through blind boxes and social attributes [9][10] - Pop Mart's revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 13.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by 185.9% to CNY 3.4 billion [5] Group 3: Economic and Industrial Shifts - The rise of new consumption brands reflects a shift in Henan's economic landscape from traditional agriculture and manufacturing to emerging industries like new consumption and cultural creativity [14][18] - The success of these brands is supported by Henan's strong agricultural and manufacturing base, which provides essential resources for production and supply [18] Group 4: Future Outlook - The emergence of new consumption brands in Henan indicates a broader trend of wealth creation linked to new industries, as seen in other provinces like Sichuan and Shaanxi [21][22] - Despite the current success, there are concerns about the sustainability of the new consumption boom, with potential risks of market bubbles and overvaluation [24]
再论新消费的投资节奏、方向
2025-06-09 15:30
新消费市场关注度显著提升,投资者积极寻找潜力股,但传统龙头公司 的高分红和竞争力亦带来投资机会。华泰证券建议关注能反映未来消费 趋势、提供情绪价值的消费品,如潮玩、黄金珠宝、美妆等。 新消费板块波动性预期增加,但部分龙头公司业绩超预期增长驱动股价 上涨,估值虽不便宜,但相对于未来复合增长率,PEG 小于 1,市场空 间大、竞争力强、产品上限高的公司仍值得重点推荐。 2025 年新消费投资主线包括国货崛起、情绪消费、银发经济及 AI 智能 家居。必选消费方面,重视大市值白马股价值重估,关注 AH 溢价较大 或即将港股 IPO 的大市值公司。 潮玩行业 IP 运营成熟,渠道拓展多样,海外市场确定性增加,资金层面 估值体系容忍度提高。泡泡玛特和名创优品作为龙头公司,在多元化变 现和海外市场拓展方面表现突出。 茶饮行业景气度较高,连锁茶饮仍是首推赛道。蜜雪冰城跳脱出茶饮品 类,更具生命久期,长期隐形壁垒深厚,值得关注。古茗的区域效率最 大化模式构成其独特护城河,成长空间值得期待。 再论新消费的投资节奏、方向 20250609 摘要 Q&A 对于当前新消费市场的关注度如何评价? 当前新消费市场关注度极高,从去年(202 ...
星巴克中国数十款饮品降价:战略调整背后的市场博弈与消费逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 15:14
Core Viewpoint - Starbucks China has announced a collective price reduction for several non-coffee beverages starting June 10, with an average price drop of 5 yuan, reaching a minimum price of 23 yuan, marking the first systematic price cut for non-coffee drinks, reflecting significant changes in the Chinese coffee and tea market [1][26] Market Pressure and Consumer Behavior - Structural changes in the consumer demographic are reshaping consumption logic, with a projected 13 million college graduates by 2025 facing limited job opportunities, leading to income disparity and a decline in Starbucks' traditional customer base [3] - Starbucks' average transaction price has declined for eight consecutive quarters, with a 6% drop in same-store sales in Q1 2025 and a drastic reduction in transaction volume growth from 48% in 2023 to just 4% [3] Competitive Landscape - Local brands like Luckin and Kudi are leveraging supply chain efficiency to restructure pricing, with Luckin achieving a stock turnover of 18 days and a single-cup cost of 10.16 yuan, while Starbucks faces higher operational costs due to insufficient local production capacity [5] - Starbucks' same-store average price is expected to drop by 8% in 2024, with comparable transaction volume decreasing by 6%, creating a negative cycle of declining volume and price [5] Brand Positioning and Strategy - The brand's premium image, established through the "third space" model, is deteriorating as new store expansions face rental pressures and reduced foot traffic, leading to a retreat from prime locations [6] - Starbucks' pricing strategy has shifted to a dual-track approach, maintaining a premium price range of 30-40 yuan for coffee while offering non-coffee drinks at 23-35 yuan to attract a broader market [11] Cost Management and Supply Chain - Starbucks is working on localizing its supply chain to reduce costs, achieving over 90% local sourcing, but still faces a 30% higher single-cup cost compared to competitors [12] - The company plans to reduce store sizes and increase the use of self-service kiosks to lower operational costs [12] Short-term Gains and Long-term Risks - Initial results from the price reduction show a 30% increase in non-coffee drink sales in the first week, with a significant rise in younger consumers, but the loyalty of price-sensitive customers remains low [15] - The price cut has led to a loss of some high-end customers, with 22% of Starbucks Gold Card members feeling the brand has lost its premium appeal [16] Profitability Challenges - Following the price reduction, Starbucks' operating profit margin has decreased from 18% to 15%, nearing the breakeven point, necessitating strategies to enhance member spending and increase sales of high-margin products [19] - Future strategies include transforming stores into community spaces and deploying AI for inventory management to improve operational efficiency [20] Cultural and Product Localization - Starbucks is introducing localized products and plans to collaborate with cultural heritage IPs to enhance brand appeal while being cautious of over-localization that may dilute brand identity [23]
“饮品顶流”羽衣甘蓝暗战供应链 新茶饮如何“卷”到田间地头?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-09 14:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising trend of kale-based beverages in the new tea drink industry, with brands like Heytea, Nayuki, and Luckin Coffee leading the charge in promoting health-focused products [1][9] - Kale is being marketed as a low-sugar, low-calorie ingredient, appealing to health-conscious consumers, and has become a significant trend in the beverage sector [1][9] - The new tea drink industry is not only innovating in product offerings but is also extending its focus to the agricultural supply chain, emphasizing the importance of sourcing high-quality, pesticide-free ingredients [1][4][14] Group 2 - The supply chain for fruits and vegetables in the new tea drink sector is undergoing a transformation, moving towards customized sourcing and cultivation to ensure consistent quality and flavor [2][4][5] - Companies like Heytea are establishing direct partnerships with farms to control the cultivation process, ensuring that their standards for pesticide use and fruit quality are met [5][14] - The trend of using niche ingredients, such as kale, is seen as a potential key to creating popular products, with many brands quickly following suit once a successful item is launched [9][10] Group 3 - The cultivation of kale in China is expanding, with a focus on its dual role as both a food ingredient and an ornamental plant, which has contributed to its popularity in urban areas [8][9] - The industry is facing challenges related to pesticide residues, particularly with kale's structure making it susceptible to pests, necessitating innovative pest control methods [10][14] - New tea drink brands are investing in advanced cleaning technologies and processes to ensure that their products meet zero pesticide residue standards, which is becoming a competitive differentiator in the market [10][13][14]
非咖饮品平均降5元!星巴克开启近年最大规模降价
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2025-06-09 14:30
Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has announced a significant price reduction on its non-coffee beverages, aiming to enhance its market competitiveness in response to aggressive pricing strategies from competitors like Luckin Coffee and Kudi [2][15][32] Group 1: Price Reduction Details - Starting June 10, Starbucks will reduce prices on several non-coffee products, including Frappuccinos, iced teas, and tea lattes, with an average price drop of 5 yuan [2][3] - For example, the price of a large Matcha Frappuccino will decrease from 33 yuan to 28 yuan, iced raspberry blackcurrant tea from 31 yuan to 26 yuan, and red tea latte from 35 yuan to 30 yuan [10][11] - This marks Starbucks' first large-scale direct price adjustment for non-coffee categories in recent years [3][9] Group 2: Strategic Intent - The price reduction is part of Starbucks' strategy to create an "all-day service scenario" with a focus on "morning coffee, afternoon non-coffee" offerings [4][28] - Starbucks aims to meet diverse customer needs across different times and scenarios by enhancing its product matrix in the non-coffee segment [6][7] - The company will evaluate customer feedback to determine future promotional activities, indicating a flexible approach to pricing based on market response [12] Group 3: Market Context - The coffee and tea market in China has become increasingly competitive, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi employing aggressive low-price strategies [15][17] - Historical data shows that Starbucks' average transaction value has declined for eight consecutive quarters, prompting the need for a price adjustment [18][19] - The introduction of low-priced products by competitors has pressured Starbucks to respond with its own pricing strategies to maintain market share [15][30] Group 4: Financial Performance - In its Q2 2025 financial results, Starbucks China reported approximately $740 million in revenue, a 5% year-over-year increase, with comparable store transactions rising by 4% [22][23] - As of the end of Q2, Starbucks had 7,758 stores in China, covering over 1,000 county-level markets, indicating a strong market presence [25]
2.9元咖啡坑惨了库迪店员
凤凰网财经· 2025-06-09 13:05
以下文章来源于凤凰网科技 ,作者凤凰网科技 凤凰网科技 . 凤凰科技频道官方账号,带你直击真相。 在库迪咖啡工作的小余,最近很忙。 门店营业的时间是9点40,她至少要提前半个小时进行开店准备。待到接单外卖的机器开始运 作,小余便开始了一天的工作。 摘要: 低至 2.9 元一杯的咖啡,让库迪在外卖平台爆单。对库迪而言,这当然是一件喜事。但对 于经销商和店员而言,日子就没那么好过了。有咖啡师称,猛干一天,人已麻木。 凤凰网《风暴眼》 出品 作者|边程 编辑| 董雨晴 3月份开始,京东掀起了一场外卖大战,单杯冰美式价格降至1.68元,小余门店里的单量直接上 升至日均500杯的水准。对于同时段只有两个人的店中店来说,500杯的日单量确实"忙不过 来"。 小余还记得最忙的那天,早上是两个人在岗,晚上闲时留了一个人,但仍旧没能顶住一天700 杯的单量。"我从9点40开始吭哧吭哧,直到外卖小哥问了我一句吃饭了吗,我才发现天居然都 黑了。" 即便连续三个小时没离开柜台,小余的外卖面单还是铺满了整个桌面,"没时间去厕所"。 截至目前,库迪在京东上的累计销量已突破4000万单,5000万预计只是时间问题。随着暴涨的 单量,京东平 ...
新消费股大抱团,谁是下一个?
格隆汇APP· 2025-06-09 10:42
作者 | 刀锋 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据(www.gogudata.com) 6月5日以来,A港股两市多只新消费龙头同时出现大幅调整,其中,老铺黄金3个交易日累跌逾11%,润本股份累 跌近15%,潮宏基累跌16%,曼卡龙累跌超17%。 新消费趋势性行情从今年3月开启,从黄金饰品、化妆品到宠物及新潮玩等,其中不少细分领域的概念龙头股普遍 翻倍,出现了极致抱团现象。 然而近期,不少新消费概念龙头都纷纷转为出现突然高位下跌,这是抱团瓦解的开始,还是大涨中继的插曲? 01 在此之前,新消费概念包括珠宝首饰、宠物经济以及茶饮等行业赛道,它们之所以被市场认可,主要是市场底层迎 来新逻辑的驱动。 首先,宏观政策基调,刺激内需消费稳定经济增长。早在 2024年末政治局会议、中央经济工作会议,便确定了 2025年政策主基调——大力提振消费、提高投资效益、全方位扩大国内需求。 这是首次将消费列在投资之前,背后意味着逆周期调节重心从投资生产端转向了消费需求端。 其次,经过多轮关税加征与博弈,更让市场确信了通过刺激内需对冲外部经贸压力的逻辑。这一点也容易凝聚市场 共识,亦是新消费持续上涨最底层的政策逻辑。 同时,新消费各大领域景气 ...
平均价格降5元!星巴克官宣数十款产品集体降价,后期还有新“发力点”
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-06-09 09:17
今天(6月9日),星巴克中国官宣了!多款产品将迎来降价! 星巴克中国宣布将发力非咖啡饮品市场,打造"上午咖啡,下午非咖"的全天候服务场景。 具体来看,6月10日起,星巴克三大王牌品类星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁,共计数十款产品将集体迎来调价,以大杯为例,平均价格降幅达 到5元,最低仅需23元就能购买。 6月9日,记者打开星巴克App后发现,部分星冰乐以及冰摇茶产品的价格还没有进行调价。 之前,关于星巴克降价的消息众说纷纭。 多名网友发帖称,星巴克或将降价。 但6月6日,记者随机探访了多地多家星巴克门店后,其中一门店的工作人员表示,不是降价,而且从6月10日开始一个线上的活动。"那 个活动是一个优惠的价格。" 关于具体哪些产品降价以及降价多少,该工作人员表示,目前门店还没有收到通知。 星巴克中国首席增长官杨振表示,"星巴克始终致力于满足顾客在不同时段、不同场景的多样化需求。'非咖'场景下完善的产品矩阵,将 与核心咖啡产品双线并举,让星巴克能够根据不同消费场景、门店类型等因素,打造不同的产品组合与体验,从而更好地满足顾客的多 元需求。" 星巴克非咖产品的降价将是持续性的还是"今夏限时"? 对此,星巴克中国向记者回应称: ...
最低仅需23元,星巴克中国官宣降价,先从非咖啡饮品入手
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-06-09 09:01
每经记者|丁舟洋 每经编辑|张海妮 夏日饮品大战来袭,咖啡龙头星巴克今日(6月9日)宣布在中国市场放大招——发力非咖啡饮品市场,打造"上午咖啡、下午非咖"的全天 候服务场景。 记者了解到,自6月10日起,星巴克三大王牌品类——星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁的共计数十款产品将集体推出全新夏日"心动价"。以大杯 为例,平均价格降幅达到5元左右。顾客最低仅需23元,就能在星巴克门店享受一杯饮品。 星巴克非咖啡产品的降价将是持续性的还是今夏限时?对此,星巴克中国方面通过微信回应《每日经济新闻》记者:"未来,我们将视顾 客反馈,决定后续活动计划。" 在产品创新和营销玩法上,星巴克也将持续发力"非咖"场景。6月17日,星巴克中国将联动迪士尼热门形象"疯狂动物城",推出3款全新联 名冰摇茶。很快,茶拿铁也将迎来更多全新口味。"6月17日上新的'疯狂动物城'三款主题冰摇茶——星星淘梨冰摇茶、全橙胡闹冰摇茶定 价最低为23元,仲夏蓝调爆珠冰摇茶定价最低为29元。"星巴克中国方面表示。 30多元降到20多元 线上平台先探路 在激烈的茶饮、咖啡竞争中,价格一直是品牌争夺市场份额的重要手段之一。 国金证券今年4月的研报显示,茶饮市场的中端价 ...
中金公司维持霸王茶姬跑赢行业评级,目标价41美元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 07:56
Group 1 - CrowdStrike Holdings Inc-A (CRWD.O) maintains a hold rating with a target price of $414, driven by improved operational efficiency and the importance of identity security in the AI era, despite slightly lower revenue expectations for Q1 FY26 [1] - Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU.O) also holds a neutral rating with a target price of $280, as same-store sales in the Americas weaken and competition in China increases, leading to a valuation downgrade [1] - Nvidia (NVDA.O) is rated outperform, with Q1 FY26 revenue exceeding expectations by 69%, driven by data center growth, and projected revenue of $45 billion for Q2 FY26 [1] Group 2 - Suzano SA ADR (SUZ.N) maintains a hold rating, with expectations of cost reduction and stable profits from a joint venture with Kimberly Clark, despite regulatory risks [2] - Zscaler (ZS.O) is rated buy with a target price of $317, as significant revenue and order growth is noted, alongside a strong position in the SASE market [3] - Bilibili (BILI.O) is rated buy, with Q1 revenue exceeding expectations and a significant improvement in adjusted net profit, driven by strong growth in advertising and gaming [6] Group 3 - Broadcom (AVGO.O) maintains an outperform rating with a target price of $275, as Q2 FY25 results meet expectations and AI revenue exceeds $4.4 billion, with a forecast of 60% growth in AI revenue for FY25 and FY26 [6][7] - Charters Industrial (GTLS.N) holds a rating of hold, with expectations of $300 million in annual synergies from a merger with FOSS, despite potential risks from cost inflation and demand downturns [8] - Hesai Technology (HSAI.O) shows strong Q1 performance with significant revenue and profit growth, and partnerships with top global OEMs [9] Group 4 - Palo Alto Networks (PANW.O) is rated buy with a target price of $203, as the company focuses on platform strategy and anticipates increased customer spending on platform products [10] - Pinduoduo (PDD.O) maintains a buy rating with a target price of $131, despite Q1 results falling short of expectations, as long-term growth strategies remain promising [11] - EHang Intelligent (EH.O) is rated outperform, with expectations of revenue growth despite a decline in Q1 due to reduced sales of EH216 series [12] Group 5 - MOMO Inc (MOMO.O) is rated outperform with a target price of $9, as Q1 results exceed expectations and overseas business shows rapid growth [13] - MOMO Inc also receives a buy rating with a target price of $8, with an increase in revenue and adjusted net profit expectations based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [14]