Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) to a range of 4.00%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, indicating potential for two more rate cuts by 2025, which enhances market risk appetite and may lead to short-term pressure on gold prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is expected to ease recession fears in the U.S., as recent economic data shows improvement, including better-than-expected retail sales and a decrease in initial jobless claims [2] - The Fed's updated dot plot suggests two additional rate cuts by 2025, totaling approximately 50 BP, which could further influence market dynamics [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The recent rate cut is likely to result in short-term fluctuations in gold prices, as market participants take profits amid rising risk appetite [2][3] - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects for gold remain positive due to ongoing U.S. government debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, suggesting potential for sustained performance in the gold market [2] Group 3: Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with rising processing rates for copper and aluminum as the market enters a traditional peak season [3] - Increased domestic policy flexibility and a favorable macroeconomic environment, coupled with supply-side disruptions, are likely to strengthen the industrial metals market, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) to a range of 4.00%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, indicating potential for two more rate cuts by 2025, which is favorable for market sentiment and may lead to a short-term pressure on gold prices [1][2] Economic Analysis - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates is expected to enhance liquidity in the market, while domestic policy space is also widening, creating a favorable environment for industrial metals [1][2] - Recent economic data from the U.S. shows improvement, with retail sales exceeding expectations and a decline in initial jobless claims, reducing fears of a recession [2] Precious Metals - The gold price may experience short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking by some investors and an increase in market risk appetite, despite the long-term potential for gold driven by ongoing U.S. government debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status [2] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are strengthening, with increased processing rates for copper and aluminum as the market enters a traditional peak season, alongside rising pre-holiday inventory demands [1][2] - The recent rate cut and anticipated further cuts are expected to support industrial metal prices, while supply-side disruptions are likely to enhance the supply-demand balance [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [6][7]. Core Views - The report expresses a positive outlook on the precious metals sector, particularly gold and silver, following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which is expected to support prices due to increased liquidity [1][38]. - For industrial metals, the report highlights that copper prices are supported by liquidity easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate as demand recovers [2][3]. - In the energy metals segment, lithium prices are anticipated to remain stable due to low factory inventories and increasing demand from the electric vehicle market [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to boost gold and silver prices, with historical trends indicating that such cuts typically lead to price increases in these metals [1][38]. - Recommended companies in this sector include 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, and 山东黄金 [1]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by easing liquidity and seasonal demand, despite a slight pullback due to profit-taking. Global copper inventories increased by 0.83 million tons, with Chinese inventories rising by 0.82 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes stable production capacity in China's aluminum sector, with a theoretical capacity of 44.085 million tons. Short-term price fluctuations are expected as demand recovers [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report indicates that factory inventories have dropped to historical lows, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 3.4% to 73,000 yuan/ton. Demand from the electric vehicle sector remains strong [3]. - **Silicon Metal**: The report anticipates price stability in the short term due to increased supply pressures and rising demand ahead of the upcoming holidays [3]. Key Companies - The report highlights several key companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - 山金国际: EPS forecasted to increase from 0.78 yuan in 2024 to 1.75 yuan in 2027 [6]. - 赤峰黄金: EPS expected to rise from 0.93 yuan in 2024 to 2.01 yuan in 2027 [6]. - 洛阳钼业: EPS projected to grow from 0.63 yuan in 2024 to 0.95 yuan in 2027 [6].

截至2025年9月19日收盘，紫金矿业（601899）报收于25.02元，较上周的25.65元下跌2.46%。本周，紫金矿业9月16日盘中最高价报26.15元。9月 18日盘中最低价报24.11元。紫金矿业当前最新总市值6649.71亿元，在工业金属板块市值排名1/60，在两市A股市值排名19/5153。 2025年9月19日，紫金黄金国际在香港联交所网站刊登招股说明书，启动全球发售。基础发行股数为348,990,700股，其中香港公开发售占10%，国 际发售占90%。超额配售权可额外发行最多52,348,600股，若全额行使，最大发行股数为401,339,300股。发行价格确定为71.59港元/股。香港公开 发售于2025年9月19日开始，预计9月24日结束。新股预计于2025年9月29日在香港联交所挂牌上市。 公司公告汇总 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 紫金矿业拟分拆所属子公司紫金黄金国际有限公司至香港联合交易所有限公司主板上市的相关事宜已获公司2025年第一次临时股东会、2025年第 二次A股类别股东会及H股类 ...

Group 1 - The average position of domestic stock private equity institutions has exceeded 78%, reaching the highest level this year as of September 12 [1][3] - The average position of public equity funds (including stock and mixed equity funds) has also risen to over 93%, marking a high level for the year [1][3] Group 2 - The increase in positions indicates a positive outlook from both public and private equity institutions regarding the market [2][3] - As of September 12, the proportion of private equity institutions with a heavy or full position (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, while the proportion of empty positions has decreased to 5.08% [3] Group 3 - The average position of large-scale private equity institutions (over 10 billion) has risen to 78.22%, with a notable increase of 11.11 percentage points from the previous week [3] - The average position of private equity institutions with assets between 5 billion and 10 billion is the highest among all categories at 86.49% [3] Group 4 - Public equity funds have actively adjusted their allocations, with the top sectors including electronics (13.92%), pharmaceuticals (12.31%), and communications (11.30%), collectively accounting for nearly 40% [4] - Recent adjustments by public equity funds have involved increasing holdings in power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and communications, while reducing exposure in the automotive, beauty care, and banking sectors [4] Group 5 - Private equity institutions maintain a positive outlook on the A-share market, focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors driven by event factors, precious and industrial metals benefiting from expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and the cyclical recovery of the pig farming industry [5] - The technology sector remains a core focus for many private equity firms, with significant potential observed in China's artificial intelligence industry as domestic models and chips become better aligned [5] Group 6 - Despite recent market fluctuations, there is no indication of overall risk in major A-share indices, suggesting that the market is not turning despite corrections in certain high-valuation sectors [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Ye Yong, who transitioned from a financial journalist to a fund manager, achieving returns of 73.07% and 51.75% for his funds in the past year [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Ye Yong's investment philosophy can be summarized as "good companies, low prices, and hold on," emphasizing a comprehensive evaluation of companies based on various indicators such as historical development, team composition, core technology, market competitiveness, and financial data [8]. - He believes in the importance of not only holding quality stocks during market volatility but also having the courage to increase positions [8]. Market Approach - Ye Yong emphasizes the need to align with macro and industry cycles, focusing on market style, industry beta, and then individual stock alpha [10]. - He identifies three key investment areas based on macro cycle judgments: industrial metals (like copper and aluminum), traditional cyclical leaders in sectors such as chemicals and steel, and post-cycle sectors like food and real estate [12][13][15][17]. Investment Timing and Indicators - Ye Yong advises investors to pay attention to leading indicators such as PPI, inventory cycles, and credit pulses to identify cycle positions [19]. - He provides specific buy and sell signals, including futures price structures and significant quarterly gross margin improvements for leading companies [19]. Recovery Sequence - Different cyclical industries recover in varying sequences, with chemicals and cement leading, followed by semiconductor materials, and finally consumer-related sectors like automotive and aviation [21]. Long-term Perspective - Ye Yong advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that investors may need to hold cyclical stocks for 3 to 5 years to realize substantial returns [23]. - He emphasizes the importance of strong cash flow and the ability of companies to survive downturns, ensuring they can rebound when the economy improves [24]. Conclusion - Ye Yong's diverse career background contributes to his unique perspective on cyclical investments, demonstrating that understanding macroeconomic trends and maintaining patience are crucial for long-term success in investing [28].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 97.44% but a recent decline of 5.89% over the last five trading days [2]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, deep processing, trading, and research of precious metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [2]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes: refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.671 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.576 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Luoyang Molybdenum was 237,500, a decrease of 15.95% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person remained at 0 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 648 million shares, an increase of 6.949 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, which have also increased their holdings [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zijin Mining has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 67.86% and a market capitalization of 6620.47 billion yuan as of September 19 [1] - As of June 30, 2025, Zijin Mining achieved an operating revenue of 1677.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232.92 billion yuan, up 54.41% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 534.29 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 219.25 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 2 - The stock has seen a recent decline of 2.88% over the last five trading days, but has increased by 20.57% over the past 20 days and 25.94% over the last 60 days [1] - The main business revenue composition includes 66.76% from other sources, 41.33% from smelting and trading gold, and 16.26% from copper smelting [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.27% to 335,700, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has officially begun, presenting new opportunities and challenges for the commodity market [1] Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Commodities - Historically, commodities tend to benefit from interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 3% in the nine months following the first cut [1] - The price movement of commodities typically follows a specific pattern: an initial rise in the first month after the cut, followed by a pullback in the second and third months, and a resurgence in the fourth month [2] - The performance of commodities during rate cut cycles is influenced by various factors, with the macroeconomic backdrop being crucial [1][4] Group 2: Differentiation Between "Healthy" and "Recessionary" Rate Cuts - In "healthy" rate cut cycles, such as those in 1995 and 2024, commodities have shown an average return of 15% over nine months, primarily driven by energy and precious metals [4] - Conversely, in "recessionary" rate cut cycles, like those in 1998, 2001, and 2019, commodities faced an average decline of 16% [4] Group 3: Sector Performance During Rate Cuts - Energy and precious metals are the strongest performing sectors during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10% and 7% respectively in the nine months following the first cut [6] - Industrial metals lag behind, with an average decline of 4% during the same period [6] - Agricultural products and livestock show no clear performance trends during rate cut cycles [6] Group 4: Future Scenarios for Commodities - Three potential scenarios for the future of commodities have been outlined: 1. "Bronzilocks" scenario: Global economy remains resilient, leading to strong commodity returns [10] 2. Recession scenario (40% probability): High risk of U.S. economic recession, resulting in downward pressure on commodities [10] 3. Re-inflation scenario (45% probability): Risk of persistent inflation, with commodities expected to yield an average monthly return of 1.6% [10]

从资金流向上来看，当日工业金属板块主力资金净流出51.09亿元，游资资金净流入12.84亿元，散户资 金净流入38.25亿元。工业金属板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，9月18日工业金属板块较上一交易日下跌3.6%，电工合金领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3831.66，下跌1.15%。深证成指报收于13075.66，下跌1.06%。工业金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002501 | 利源股份 | 2.81 | 2.55% | 565.45万 | 16.08亿 | | 002203 | 海亮股份 | 12.36 | 1.23% | 51.85万 | 6.46 Z | | 002988 | 蒙美新材 | 43.76 | 0.53% | 8.70万 | 3.85亿 | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | 19.14 | 0.00% | 99.95万 | 19.34亿 | | 002295 | 精艺股份 | 10.67 | -1.11% | 13.36万 | ...