1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals generally declined. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 8.62%, Shanghai Silver closed down 11.67%, Platinum closed down 11.38%, and Palladium closed down 12.42%. [1] - In the short - term, regarding the hedging aspect, the risk of trade war has eased, and the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East may become normalized. The U.S. employment is strong, inflation pressure still exists, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is at a low level. [1] - Regarding the hedging attribute, the air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may become long - term. [1] - Regarding the monetary attribute, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged this month, stating that the Iran war has made the policy outlook highly uncertain. It is expected that inflation will rise, the unemployment rate will remain stable, and there will be one interest rate cut this year. Fed Chairman Powell said that this policy path faces extremely high uncertainty as policymakers are evaluating the impact of the U.S. - Israel war on Iran. Traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - Regarding the commodity attribute, the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium still has resilience, but it faces structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market in the long term. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate weakly in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] - Price data: International prices such as Comex Gold active contract and London Gold, and domestic prices like Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D all showed declines compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex Gold active contract closed at $4492.00 per ounce, down $159.90 (-3.44%) from the previous day and $531.10 (-10.57%) from the previous week. [2] - Position and inventory data: Comex Gold positions increased slightly, while Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased significantly. Inventory data showed different trends, with LBMA inventory increasing slightly and Comex Gold inventory decreasing. [2] - Net position ranking: The top 10 futures companies' net long and short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions compared to the previous period. [3] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [4] - Price data: International prices of Comex Silver and London Silver, and domestic prices of Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D had different trends. For example, the Comex Silver active contract closed at $67.81 per ounce, down $5.00 (-6.87%) from the previous day and $12.84 (-15.92%) from the previous week. [4] - Position and inventory data: Comex Silver positions decreased slightly, while Shanghai Silver main contract positions increased. Inventory data showed a decline in some inventories and an increase in others. [4] - Net position ranking: The top 10 futures companies' net long and short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are shown, with changes in positions compared to the previous period. [5] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [6] - Price data: International prices of NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum, and domestic prices of Platinum main contract and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange all increased compared to the previous day but decreased compared to the previous week. [7] - Position and inventory data: NYMEX Platinum positions decreased, and the inventory remained unchanged. [7] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [8] - Price data: International prices of NYMEX Palladium and London Palladium had different trends. The NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day but down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week. [8] - Position and inventory data: NYMEX Palladium positions increased, and the inventory increased significantly. [8] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve indicators: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. [9] - Key economic indicators: The 10 - year U.S. Treasury real yield, U.S. dollar index, and various interest rate spreads changed. Inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE showed different trends. U.S. economic growth indicators like GDP, unemployment rate, and employment data also had corresponding changes. [9] - Other data: Data on the U.S. real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, as well as central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and geopolitical and market risk - related indices. [9][11] Federal Reserve Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Federal Reserve's interest rate levels at different meeting dates from April 2026 to December 2027 is presented, showing the market's expectations of interest rate changes. [13]

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年03月23日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 EIA数据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，但成品油去库幅度较大，整体油品库存略有增加。市场聚焦中东局势，伊朗原油产量和 出口量较大，伊朗日产原油约330万桶，占全球产量的3%，日均出口约160万桶，且位于原油海运要道—霍尔木兹海峡。2025年每日约有1300 万桶原油通过该海峡，占全球海运原油流量的约31%。霍尔木兹海峡近乎停航多日已经引发中东产油国减产。美伊目前均无意停火。伊朗最 高国家安全委员会秘书阿里·拉里贾尼遇袭身亡。伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊发表声明强调，此类恐怖行动只会"强化伊斯兰民族的 意志"，并誓言"血债将很快得到清算"。3月18日，伊朗上游油气设施首次成为攻击目标，伊朗最大的天然气田—南帕尔斯气田和阿萨卢 耶部分石油化工设施遭袭击，伊朗随后宣布已对地区内与美国相关的石油及能源设施发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Due to new developments in the Middle East situation, Iran's ultimatum, the strengthening of crude oil during the day, the spring maintenance, and the further reduction of production load in the domestic chemical industry, there is still room and momentum for the price to rise further in the later period, and the market should be treated strongly. It is necessary to focus on tracking the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton Gulei plant shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. Styrene production decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79% [1] - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of styrene varied. The EPS operating rate decreased by 0.98% to 57.78%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 67.4%, the UPR operating rate increased by 3% to 38%, and the butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 75.65% [1] - Inventory: Styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 10.88% to 156,500 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 3.77% to 51,000 tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The state has taken temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices. The actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices is 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan respectively [2] - Saudi Arabia has reduced its crude oil supply to Asian buyers in April, only supplying Arab light crude oil exported from Yanbu Port to long - term customers [2] - The head of the International Energy Agency, Birol, said that it may take six months to restore oil and gas supplies from the Gulf region [2] - Iran proposed four measures in response to Trump's "ultimatum" to open the Strait of Hormuz, including completely closing the Strait of Hormuz [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Due to new developments in the Middle East situation and Iran's ultimatum, crude oil strengthened during the day. With spring maintenance and further reduction of production load in the domestic chemical industry, there is still room and momentum for the price to rise further in the later period. The market should be treated strongly, and attention should be paid to the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal improvement of domestic macro - economic indicators from January to February is significant, but the absolute value of domestic demand growth is still low. External demand is the main driver of the improvement in the early - year fundamentals. The 1 - 2 month tax revenue growth turned slightly positive, and whether tax revenue and industrial enterprise profits can rise in sync with industrial product prices is an important factor to test the quality of PPI. The impact of energy supply disruptions on domestic industrial production is currently relatively controllable, and external demand may remain strong. The real - estate sales volume has seasonally increased, but there are few bright spots in prices, and the "price - for - volume" strategy in the second - hand housing market may continue. The impact of tax payments and government bond issuances on the capital market is limited, and market liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose, but the possibility of the central bank's liquidity management returning to a phased tight balance cannot be ruled out. The bond market lacks strong upward drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the yield curve, it is advisable to consider a "left - hand" light - position attempt to short the 30Y - 7Y term spread [6][7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Economic Data**: The domestic economic data from January to February showed significant marginal improvement, better than market expectations. However, the absolute value of domestic demand growth was still low, with fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by only 1.8% and 2.8% year - on - year respectively. External demand was the main driver of the improvement in the early - year fundamentals, and domestic demand needed further boosting [12]. - **Tax Revenue**: From January to February, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with tax revenue increasing by 0.1% and non - tax revenue by 3.4%. Tax revenue growth was still weak but improved compared to December last year. Whether tax revenue and industrial enterprise profits can rise in sync with industrial product prices is an important factor to test the quality of PPI [13]. - **High - Frequency Data**: In the chemical industry, the impact of energy supply disruptions on domestic industrial production was relatively controllable. In March's second week, port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded, with year - on - year increases of 2.3% and 11.1% respectively, indicating strong external demand. The real - estate sales volume increased seasonally, but the second - hand housing "price - for - volume" strategy may continue, and the second - hand housing listing price index declined for the third consecutive week. The bill interest rate dropped slightly, with the 3M and 6 - month national - share transfer discount rates at 1.43% and 1.17% respectively, down 5bp and 6bp from last week [6][25][31]. - **Liquidity**: The impact of tax payments and government bond issuances on the capital market was limited. As of Friday, DR001 and DR007 were at 1.3207% and 1.4209% respectively, and the overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 7.54bp and 5.60bp respectively. The 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks continued to decline, falling below 1.53%. Market liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose, but the central bank may return to a phased tight - balance liquidity management if external supply shocks persist [37]. - **Futures Market**: As of Friday, the IRRs of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.2762%, 1.2858%, 1.3341%, and 0.5332% respectively. The futures market valuation was relatively low, indicating a cautious market sentiment. The net long - position ratios of the top ten seats in TS, TF, T, and TL were - 17.76%, - 6.96%, + 0.87%, and - 2.73% respectively, with changes of + 3.59, - 1.62, + 1.99, and + 2.16 percentage points from last Friday [42][43]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is advisable to consider a light - position attempt to short the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) [8]. Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented, but specific analysis is not provided in the content [52]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented [55]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: The inter - commodity spread data of 2TS - TF, 3TF - 2T, 3T - TL, and TS + T - 2TF are presented [58]. - **Cash Bond Yield Curve and Spread**: The current and 5 - day - ago cash bond yield curves, weekly yield changes, key - term spreads, and the spreads between national bonds and local bonds are presented. The 30Y - 7Y term spread has reached a relatively high level in the past decade [61]. - **Historical Quantile of Term Spread**: The historical quantile data of 5Y - 2Y, 7Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 7Y term spreads are presented [64][65]. - **US Treasury Yield and Exchange Rate**: The data of the US 10 - year Treasury yield, 10Y US Treasury break - even inflation rate, US dollar index, and US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate are presented [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A股主要指数收盘集体大幅下跌，三大指数低开低走，上证指数一度跌破3800点，至尾盘小幅回升，中小盘股弱于大盘蓝筹股，沪深两市成交额有所回升，行业板块普遍下跌，仅煤炭、石油石化板块逆市上涨 [2] - 2026年1 - 2月国内规上工业增加值、固投、社零、进出口、通胀数据均较前值显著回升，国民经济整体录得良好开局；从已披露2025年年报的上市公司看，中证500、中证1000营收与净利增速均加快，沪深300营收增速亦小幅抬升，2月份国内经济基本面表现强劲 [2] - 3月下半月上市公司进入年报密集披露期，市场转向事实验证阶段，目前披露2025年年报的上市公司整体表现良好 [2] - 美伊冲突带来的油价上涨冲击全球金融市场，战争局势未见明显好转，后续油价仍有进一步走高可能，停滞性通货膨胀带来的经济衰退和物价上涨忧虑对权益市场尤其是成长风格股票产生明显压制 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Contract Prices - IF主力合约（2606）价格为4344.4，环比下降160.4；IF次主力合约（2604）价格为4398.0，环比下降160.4 [2] - IH主力合约（2606）价格为2776.0，环比下降98.6；IH次主力合约（2604）价格为2793.6，环比下降95.2 [2] - IC主力合约（2606）价格为7235.0，环比下降371.2；IC次主力合约（2604）价格为7387.6，环比下降356.6 [2] - IM主力合约（2606）价格为7190.0，环比下降422.6；IM次主力合约（2604）价格为7364.0，环比下降410.8 [2] 3.1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - IF - IH当月合约价差为1604.4，环比下降54.2；IC - IF当月合约价差为2989.6，环比下降167.0 [2] - IM - IC当月合约价差为 - 23.6，环比下降54.8；IC - IH当月合约价差为4594.0，环比下降221.2 [2] - IM - IF当月合约价差为2966.0，环比下降221.8；IM - IH当月合约价差为4570.4，环比下降276.0 [2] - IF当季 - 当月为 - 53.6，环比无变化；IF下季 - 当月为 - 139.2，环比下降5.8 [2] - IH当季 - 当月为 - 17.6，环比下降2.0；IH下季 - 当月为 - 52.4，环比下降3.6 [2] - IC当季 - 当月为 - 152.6，环比下降15.4；IC下季 - 当月为 - 338.6，环比下降24.8 [2] - IM当季 - 当月为 - 174.0，环比下降6.2；IM下季 - 当月为 - 394，环比下降10.2 [2] 3.1.3 Futures Positions - IF前20名净持仓为24,067.00，环比下降1040.0；IH前20名净持仓为20,392.00，环比增加331.0 [2] - IC前20名净持仓为33,090.00，环比增加108.0；IM前20名净持仓为51,403.00，环比下降311.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 沪深300现货价格为4418.00，环比下降149.0；IF主力合约基差为 - 73.6，环比增加7.0 [2] - 上证50现货价格为2,792.3，环比下降91.5；IH主力合约基差为 - 16.3，环比增加1.7 [2] - 中证500现货价格为7,440.8，环比下降319.3；IC主力合约基差为 - 205.8，环比下降5.1 [2] - 中证1000现货价格为7,409.1，环比下降374.3；IM主力合约基差为 - 219.1，环比增加4.3 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - A股成交额（日，亿元）为24,481.05，环比增加1452.81；两融余额（前一交易日，亿元）为26,322.94，环比下降178.34 [2] - 北向成交合计（前一交易日，亿元）为3390.88，环比增加644.56；逆回购（到期量，操作量，亿元）为 - 1373.0，环比增加80.0 [2] - 主力资金（昨日，今日，亿元）为 - 738.53，环比下降1253.99 [2] - 上涨股票比例（日，%）为5.56，环比下降6.48；Shibor（日，%）为1.317，环比下降0.002 [2] - IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2604）为124.80，环比下降65.40；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率（%）为25.36，环比增加4.99 [2] - IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2604）为118.00，环比增加73.00；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率（%）为25.36，环比增加5.07 [2] - 沪深300指数20日波动率（%）为17.07，环比增加3.57；成交量PCR（%）为92.21，环比增加15.76 [2] - 持仓量PCR（%）为64.23，环比下降4.65 [2] 3.4 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - 全部A股为1.80，环比下降0.70；技术面为0.60，环比下降0.60 [2] - 资金面为3.00，环比下降0.90 [2] 3.5 Industry News - 当地时间3月21日，特朗普要求伊朗在48小时内开放霍尔木兹海峡，否则将对伊朗“各类发电厂”发动打击并摧毁；伊朗方面回应若发电站等基础设施被打击，将采取包括关闭霍尔木兹海峡等4项措施，油价将长期上涨 [2] - A股主要指数收盘集体大幅下跌，三大指数低开低走，行业板块普遍下跌，仅煤炭、石油石化板块逆市上涨 [2] - 当地时间3月18日周末期间，美伊局势进一步升级，特朗普表示若伊朗不开放霍尔木兹海峡将袭击其电力设备，伊朗回应若电力设施遭到打击将完全关闭霍尔木兹海峡，市场对美联储在10月份议息会议上加息的预期为29.2% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - 3月24日16:15 - 17:30关注法国、德国、欧元区、英国3月SPGI制造业、服务业、综合PMI初值以及美国3月SPGI制造业、服务业、综合PMI初值 [3] - 3月27日9:30关注中国2月规上工业企业利润 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry remains unchanged, and the upward space in March and April is limited. It is difficult for shipping companies' price increase announcements to materialize. The main logic is the support from news. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track airline quotes and cargo volume data, as well as the persistence of the US-Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closing price is 1957.400, up 57.0; EC secondary main contract closing price is 2692.9, up 338.90. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 is -428.80, up 49.50; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 is -408.60, up 24.40. The EC contract basis is -264.14, up 123.37. The EC main contract position is 17696 lots, down 74 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 1693.26, up 136.77; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1024.11, down 85.00. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1706.95, down 3.40; container ship capacity is 1227.97 ten thousand TEUs, up 0.10. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1120.61, up 48.45; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1463.75, up 18.88. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2056.00, up 1.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1904.00, up 5.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 0.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 24559.00, down 159.00 [1] Industry News - US President Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the US will attack and destroy Iran's "various power plants". Iran's parliamentary speaker pointed out that if Iran's power plants are attacked, the entire Middle East's energy and oil facilities will be regarded as legitimate targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will take four measures if Trump's threat is carried out. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, and ships from non - hostile countries can pass safely [1] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and keep liquidity abundant [1] Market Performance - On Monday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices rose rapidly in the afternoon. The main contract EC2604 rose 3%, and the far - month contracts rose between 6 - 14%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index is 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8%. The US - Iran conflict has led to higher oil prices, which has pushed up container transportation costs and driven up futures prices. Spot prices have also risen due to high oil prices [1] Economic Data - The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and inflation unexpectedly accelerated. The CPI in February increased by 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation have increased the expectation of a tighter ECB policy, and the market fully prices in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July [1] Key Events to Watch - March 24, 07:30, Japan's February core CPI annual rate; 16:15, France's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 16:30, Germany's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 17:00, eurozone's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 17:30, UK's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 21:45, US's March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for the steel industry [2] Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with reduced positions. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity. The weekly production of rebar continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 44.57%. Downstream demand continued to improve, with the apparent demand exceeding 2.05 million tons, and inventory turned from increasing to decreasing. Overall, both supply and demand of rebar increased, the inventory inflection point appeared, and the rising cost of furnace materials pushed up the bottom support. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA crossed and rebounded, with the green bar turning red [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the position volume was 1,351,388 lots, down 35,832 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -43,823 lots, up 12,269 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was -28 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,455 tons, up 10,669 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 176 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 136 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.0267 million tons, down 0.8913 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 523,500 tons, down 37,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.8778 million tons, up 1,600 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 2.4953 million tons, up 90,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.80%, up 1.44 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.55%, up 2.65 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0333 million tons, up 80,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 44.57%, up 1.75 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.362 million tons, down 34,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 6.5321 million tons, down 13,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 66.67%, up 7.29 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 7.47 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, down 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 17.20%, down 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, down 2.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, down 1.24518 billion square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, down 536.86 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, up 35.16 million square meters [2] Industry News - The US may launch a ground military operation against Iran's Kharg Island. From March 9th to March 15th, the second - hand housing transactions in Shanghai reached 7,233 units, a 27% increase from the previous period, setting the highest weekly transaction record since 2021 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market sentiment continues to weaken. After gold and silver prices breached important thresholds, they continued their downward trend. The sharp correction of gold and silver in this round is mainly due to the dual pressure under the backdrop of global liquidity squeeze. In the short - term, the precious metal market will still revolve around the safe - haven sentiment under the US - Iran situation, the resilience of inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. In the medium - to - long - term, the long - term bullish logic for precious metals has not substantially reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will fluctuate in the short - term to digest previous overheated gains. Short - term operations should be cautious, while long - term funds can consider gradually building long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 940 yuan/gram, down 99.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 15,411 yuan/kilogram, down 2,214 yuan. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold was 386,422 lots, up 43,191 lots; that of Shanghai Silver was 1,259,324 lots, up 125,087 lots. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 62,764 lots, down 6,229 lots; those of Shanghai Silver were 55,828 lots, down 3,257 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 106,746 kilograms, down 99 kilograms; that of Shanghai Silver was 364,549 kilograms, up 2,054 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 924.65 yuan, down 116.94 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No. 1 silver was 16,710 yuan, down 1,690 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 15.35 yuan/gram, down 17.72 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 1,299 yuan/gram, up 524 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF were 1,056.99 tons, down 5.14 tons; the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF were 15,248.91 tons, up 61.97 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC were 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; those of silver were 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,302.8 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. The US dollar index was 99.51, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, up 0.13 [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.78, up 2.72; the CBOE gold volatility index was 35.25, up 4.20. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 63.04, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was down 2.96 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said he could talk to Iran but didn't want a cease - fire for now. The US Senate voted again to reject a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security, which has been shut down since February 14. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman expected three interest rate cuts this year due to concerns about a weak labor market. Fed Governor Waller said caution was needed in assessing the monetary policy direction, but might call for rate cuts later this year if the job market remained weak. Several European Central Bank officials sent hawkish signals, and central bank governors of Germany and Ireland said there might be an interest rate hike in April. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays revised their forecasts for the ECB's policy path, expecting 2 - 3 interest rate hikes this year. The Trump administration started preliminary consultations for "peace talks" with Iran through a third - party, and the US put forward a series of requirements [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - March 24: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value, US February new home sales annualized total, US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index; March 25: US February durable goods orders monthly rate; March 26: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21; March 27: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate, US February personal spending monthly rate, US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai tin to undergo low - level adjustments and suggests paying attention to whether it can stabilize between 320,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,300 yuan/ton, down 14,180 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 60 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - LME 3 - month tin is at 42,840 US dollars/ton, down 1,060 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 24,984 lots, down 2,200 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 7,064 lots, up 26 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,920 tons, down 35 tons - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, down 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 710 tons, up 145 tons - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,978 tons, down 508 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 341,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 342,450 yuan/ton, down 10,560 yuan - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 2,230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 235 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,100 tons, down 700 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 325,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 329,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, up 757.7 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 217,600 yuan/ton, down 7,500 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, up 145,500 tons - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, down 5,900 tons [3] Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain sufficient liquidity - China's Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones, increasing direct and inclusive policies for consumers - Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatened to destroy its power plants. The US is planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves", and the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground forces to Iran [3] Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - front, the US is taking actions against Iran. On the fundamental side, the supply situation is changing. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a possible缓解 of the supply shortage. - On the smelting side, the output of refined tin will gradually recover after the Chinese New Year, but most enterprises have low raw material inventory, and some external - ore - purchasing capacities are at a loss, affecting the output of refined tin. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window has opened, and the import pressure has increased. - On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, holders are reluctant to sell, the spot premium exceeds 2,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing at low prices has increased, and inventory has decreased significantly, while LME inventory has increased and the spot premium has decreased. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has declined under pressure, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of sufficient supply and improving demand, with a slight reduction in industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 149,040 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 88,564 hands, down 1,625 hands; the trading volume of the main contract is 269,477 hands, down 7,101 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 440 yuan/ton, down 2,340 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE are 35,769 hands/ton, up 1,451 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 146,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 143,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 2,540 yuan/ton, down 7,680 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,320 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 12,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) remains unchanged at 6,825 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 26,426.79 tons, down 431.27 tons; the monthly export volume is 596.08 tons, up 124.52 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5%; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, down 26,400 MWh; the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 type, 622 power - type, 523 single - crystal type) remain unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5%; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 55%, up 1%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 694,000 vehicles, down 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, down 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.18%, up 0.9%; the cumulative sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 125,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 583,000 vehicles, up 301,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total holding of call options is 131,120 contracts, up 2,581 contracts; the total holding of put options is 121,136 contracts, up 8,196 contracts; the put - call ratio of total holdings is 92.39%, up 4.5212%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.55%, down 0.0383% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized that China's industrial competitive advantages come from reform and innovation, and China will maintain a fair market order [2] - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank will implement a supportive monetary policy, maintain liquidity, and promote the high - level opening of the financial industry [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the US - China Business Council delegation, hoping to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations [2] - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said that fiscal policy will focus on investing in people, increase consumer - oriented policies, and allocate special bonds and专项资金 to promote consumption [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate opened lower and strengthened, with a 1.02% increase at the close. The trading volume decreased, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakened [2] - On the fundamental side, the price of lithium ore weakened with the回调 of lithium carbonate price. Overseas miners were more willing to sell at favorable prices, and smelters were more active in inquiring and purchasing. The upstream smelters adopted a price - supporting and sales - withholding strategy, and the weekly inventory of smelters increased slightly. The export volume and average price from Chile increased significantly. The downstream battery factories maintained a strategy of buying at low prices, and the trading sentiment in the spot market became active with the price fluctuations [2] - In terms of options, the put - call ratio of holdings increased, the option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed red bars below the 0 - axis [2]