瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 碳酸锂市场周报 长假将至供需双减，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡走强，涨跌幅为14.84%，振幅15.06%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价152640元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上 涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5 个百分点。基本面原料端，锂矿价格随锂价区间波动，矿商出货意愿较强，但冶炼厂由于备货较为充足，态度偏谨慎 观望。供给端，上游冶炼厂因春节长假来临而生产产能有所减弱，加之物流停运，国内供给量逐步收减。需求端，由 于假期放假原因，加之前期锂价回落时节前采买备货基本已完成，现货市场成交较为零星，逐步清淡。整体来看，碳 酸锂基本面或将处于供需双减的局面，产业库存逐步下降 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Urea Market Weekly Report from Ruida Futures Research Institute on February 13, 2026, with researcher Lin Jingyi [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The domestic urea market showed a narrow - range upward trend this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong reached 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Despite being in the last order - receiving period before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment was active, and factory prices gradually increased [7] Market Outlook - Some previously shut - down plants resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. Next week, no plant is planned to shut down, and one shut - down plant may resume. Considering possible short - term equipment failures, output is expected to remain stable. There is still some local agricultural demand, but most demand is on hold due to the Spring Festival. Compound fertilizer enterprises entered the production - reduction stage this week, with capacity utilization decreasing week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the short term and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, but may start to accumulate during the Spring Festival due to reduced long - distance logistics [7] Strategy Suggestion - During the long holiday, pay attention to the impact of external macro - situation, geopolitics, and temperature on post - festival agricultural demand [7] Group 3: Futures Market Price Movement - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 3.21% [10] Spread - As of February 13, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 41 [12] Position Analysis - No detailed information on the change of net long positions of the top 20 in urea futures is provided, only the name of the analysis item is mentioned [15] Warehouse Receipts - As of February 13, there were 10,382 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, a decrease of 478 from last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market Domestic Price - As of February 12, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [26] International Price - As of February 12, the FOB price of urea in China was 442.5 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week [30] Basis - As of February 12, the urea basis was - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [34] Group 5: Upstream Market Coal and Gas Prices - As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37] Group 6: Industry Situation Production and Capacity Utilization - As of February 12, China's urea production was 1.4931 million tons, up 23,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.63%. The capacity utilization rate was 90.59%, up 1.45% from the previous period [40] Inventory - As of February 12, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 166,000 tons, up 1000 tons week - on - week, a 0.61% increase. As of February 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 834,700 tons, down 83,800 tons from last week, a 9.12% decrease [43] Export - In December 2025, urea exports were 278,300 tons, a 53.75% decrease from the previous month [46] Group 7: Downstream Market Compound Fertilizer and Melamine - As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19%, down 5.6 percentage points week - on - week. It is expected to remain low in the next period and resume after the eighth day of the first lunar month. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 51.5%, down 7.3 percentage points from last week [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly, while the inland methanol price rose slightly. The pre - holiday inventory clearance work of enterprises was successfully completed, and the market was mainly focused on pre - selling holiday and post - holiday orders. Some local markets showed signs of bottoming out and warming up [7]. - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in the domestic methanol industry is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production. The pre - holiday inventory clearance and pre - selling of goods in the inland area were carried out smoothly, and most enterprises currently have no inventory and are in a situation of queuing for loading. It is expected that the inventory of inland production enterprises will increase during the holiday. The port methanol inventory increased slightly this week, and it may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market fluctuated narrowly. The price range in Jiangsu was 2170 - 2240 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was 2200 - 2230 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price rose slightly, with the price range in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area being 1805 - 1873 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying being 2180 - 2190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic methanol production will decrease due to more production capacity loss from maintenance and cuts. The inland inventory decreased this week but is expected to increase during the holiday. The port inventory increased slightly this week and may rise steadily during the Spring Festival. The domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Pay attention to the external macro - situation, geopolitical situation, and crude oil prices during the long holiday [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 2.5% [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of February 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 32 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: As of February 12, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8032, an increase of 50 compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of February 12, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1850 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 362.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of February 12, the CFR price of methanol at the main port in China was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main port in China was 59 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared with last week [34]. - **Basis**: As of February 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 18.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: As of February 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of February 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of February 12, China's methanol production was 2,056,795 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared with last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 92.07%, a decrease of 0.01% compared with the previous week. As of February 11, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China was 340,300 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 7.61% compared with the previous period; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 315,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 9.75% compared with the previous period. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4322 million tons, an increase of 21,200 tons compared with the previous data. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of methanol in China from January to December was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of February 12, the methanol import profit was - 15.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with last week [44][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of February 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.16%, an increase of 1.34% compared with the previous week. As of February 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 796 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton compared with last week [58][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the turmoil in the US stock market, market risk sentiment has emerged, and the demand for gold investment may slightly weaken. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the near term, but the bullish logic remains unchanged, maintaining a cautiously bullish view. The Au2604 contract may fluctuate between 1050 yuan/gram and 1200 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18500 yuan/kilogram and 21500 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The Sino-US trade "truce" is expected to be extended. In the stock market, concerns about AI eroding corporate profits led to a sharp decline in the US stock market, causing a broad sell - off in risk assets. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3%. Gold and silver also suffered heavy losses under risk - aversion sentiment, with spot gold down more than 4% and spot silver down more than 11% at one point [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 12, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1133.80 yuan/gram and closed at 1126.12 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1123.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1100.96 yuan/gram, a 2.23% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 21718.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 20626.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 1.52% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 509006 lots, and the open interest was 198505 lots. In the night session, it opened at 20400 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19188 yuan/kilogram, a 6.97% decline from the afternoon close [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.096%, down 7.42 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.65%, up 1.81 basis points from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 4046 lots and the short positions decreased by 2712 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 324449 lots, a 14.97% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions decreased by 9695 lots and the short positions decreased by 8203 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1109141 lots, a 2.31% change from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1081.32 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16236 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 12, 2026, the domestic gold premium was - 3.89 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 138.31 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 54.60, a 1.16% change from the previous trading day, and the foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 58.89, a - 4.01% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamentals - On February 12, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 24712 kilograms, a - 14.71% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 220352 kilograms, a - 5.23% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [8]

消费环境的疲软降低了利率预期，并改善了非收益金属的短期政策前景，尽管银价仍比1月底的峰值低 约30%，此前的抛售一度抹去近一半的价值。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特重申，近期极端波动是由投机活动驱动的，特别是来自中国交易者的活 动。市场现在关注本周晚些时候发布的延迟的美国就业和通胀数据，以进一步指导美联储的利率路径。 今日周三(2月11日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于20715一线上方，今日开盘于20420元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报20628元/千克，上涨0.34%，最高触及20795元/千克，最低下探20050元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 由于美国经济数据疲软，市场预期转向更宽松的货币政策，价格获得支撑，12月零售销售意外停滞， gdp控制组下降0.1%，进一步强化了需求放缓和通胀压力减轻的迹象。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 截至2026年2月11日，沪银期货呈现高位剧烈震荡格局。技术面显示，主力合约（ag2604）在20300- 20900元/千克区间形成多空博弈焦点，日线级别收出"看跌吞没"与"锤子线"的矛盾组合，表明短期方向 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures warehouse receipts in Shanghai reached 349,633 kilograms, with an increase of 7,531 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 21,718 yuan per kilogram, peaked at 21,720 yuan, and dropped to a low of 20,350 yuan, closing at 20,626 yuan, reflecting a rise of 0.62% [1] Group 2 - The total warehouse receipts in Shanghai include 53,806 kilograms from Zhongchu Wusong, 25,466 kilograms from Waiyun Huadong Hongqiao, and 233,553 kilograms from Zhonggongmei Supply Chain, with an increase of 5,913 kilograms from Zhonggongmei [2] - In Guangdong, Shenzhen Weibao contributed 36,808 kilograms, with an increase of 1,618 kilograms [2] Group 3 - U.S. inflation remains above target levels, and the interest rate stance should maintain a slightly restrictive position according to the Kansas City Fed President [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [2] - The hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, while the dollar index rose by 0.07% to 96.92, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook for precious metals [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$17.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,480 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan per ton to 24,450 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,430 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,750 yuan per ton and closed at 24,650 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,396 lots, and the open interest was 51,593 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,775 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,415 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,400 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [3]

流动性日报 | 2026-02-13 市场流动性概况 2026-02-12，股指板块成交5753.46亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.82%；持仓金额16221.55亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.54%；成交持仓比为34.89%。 国债板块成交4768.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.15%；持仓金额9432.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.56%；成交持 仓比为47.73%。 基本金属板块成交5024.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.98%；持仓金额6499.11亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.45%；成 交持仓比为79.58%。 贵金属板块成交7112.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.96%；持仓金额5091.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.41%；成交 持仓比为170.09%。 | 一、板块流动性 4 | | --- | | 二、股指板块 5 | | 三、国债板块 6 | | 四、基本金属与贵金属（金属板块） 7 | | 五、能源化工板块 8 | | 六、农产品板块 9 | | 七、黑色建材板块 10 | 能源化工板块成交3614.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.39%；持仓金额4673.74亿元，较上一交易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Factors influencing the market include the stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Political Bureau meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a rate of 0.47%. M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a rate of - 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.91, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.01%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8968, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 and a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 days is 1.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.33%. DR007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 and a rate of - 6.95%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance [14][17][21][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [30][36][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][50][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [52][53][54]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - Trump's military pressure on Iran is likely a threat to force concessions in negotiations rather than a real intention to start a war. The probability of a military strike has significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. If an agreement is reached between the US and Iran, the threat to the Strait of Hormuz will be eliminated, and oil prices will return to being driven by fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market News and Key Data - WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.79, or 2.77%, at $62.84 per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed down $1.88, or 2.71%, at $67.52 per barrel [1] - On February 12, the Kremlin proposed to "re - embrace the US dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. The proposal involves potential cooperation in fossil energy investment and could reshape the global financial landscape [1] - On February 12, the IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January. OPEC's research department predicts a 1.38 - million - barrel - per - day increase in 2026 oil demand [1] - Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in about a month and warns of "very serious" consequences if no agreement is reached. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu questions the enforceability of the agreement [1] Investment Logic - Trump's military pressure on Iran is a negotiation tactic. Due to the mid - term election pressure, the cost of attacking Iran is high, and the probability of a military strike has decreased. If an agreement is reached, oil prices will be driven by fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: oil prices will fluctuate within a range. Due to high uncertainty in the Iran situation, risk prevention is necessary. Medium - term: short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: Sanctioned oil turning into compliant oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]