Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market showed an adjustment trend yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products rising slightly. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high. In the long term, the steel consumption side still has the basis for gradual recovery. However, in the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output is temporarily stable, and the demand is flat. It is expected to operate within the shock range [5]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. Although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side continues to shrink, and the demand side has no significant marginal change. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range is expected to be limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [17]. - For glass, multiple production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (1.046%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 43,558 tons, a net increase of 338 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.432705 million lots, a decrease of 80,706 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.764%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, a decrease of 2,656 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.082089 million lots, a decrease of 42,534 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the output decreased slightly, and the inventory level remained high. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils still exists. The subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+5.00), with a position change of -10,742 lots to 449,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 922,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month in the latest period. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output decreased month-on-month, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. The inventory of iron ore was still high overall, but there were structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output was temporarily stable, and the demand was flat. It was expected to operate within the shock range [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Information - On November 24, the main contract of silicomanganese (SM601) rebounded by more than 1.3% during the session and finally closed up 0.43% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) once rebounded nearly 1% during the session and then fell back, finally closing down 0.29% at 5456 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 56 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][9]. - The silicomanganese price showed a weak trend, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at the 5600 yuan/ton level. The ferrosilicon price was still in the shock range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support situation at the 5400 yuan/ton level [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite weakened comprehensively. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the decline in coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The supply and demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8940 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-20). The weighted contract position increased by 982 lots to 428,650 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton after converting to the futures price [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon continued to weaken yesterday. The short-term funds were fast in and out, and the sentiment changed rapidly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk. On the fundamental side, the weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the supply side continued to shrink. The demand side had no significant marginal change. The cost side provided support for the futures price. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,315 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 3363 lots to 235,435 lots. The average price of N-type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.25 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of -1065 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon was still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range was expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and cells had loosened, and the price pressure still existed. The spot price of upstream silicon materials was relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from downstream. The price would fluctuate widely within the range under the influence of news. The focus in the future was still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1013 yuan/ton, up 2.63% (+26). The quoted price of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, down 10 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million boxes, up 56,000 boxes (+0.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders increased their positions by 9 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 39,552 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Multiple glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton, up 1.11% (+13). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1153 yuan, up 13 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6444 million tons, down 62,900 tons (-3.70%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, down 19,800 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, down 43,100 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders decreased their positions by 21,776 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 50,267 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure in the soda ash market remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Iron Ore Spot Data - Newman powder price is 791, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 1, and its import profit is -17.55 [1] - PB powder price is 794, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 1, and its import profit is -14.11 [1] - Mac powder price is 787, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3, and its import profit is 15.48 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 747, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3, and its import profit is 8.44 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 730, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3, and its import profit is -16.75 [1] - Super special powder price is 673, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -7, and its import profit is -32.05 [1] - Carajás powder price is 885, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of -7, and its import profit is -12.22 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder price is 835, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 5, and its import profit is 6.89 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 781, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 1, and its import profit is 18.67 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1014, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -6 [1] Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Futures Contract Data - i2601 contract price is 790.5, with a daily change of 5.0 and a weekly change of 2.0, and the monthly spread is -54.0 [1] - i2605 contract price is 763.5, with a daily change of 7.5 and a weekly change of 7.0, and the monthly spread is 27.0 [1] - i2609 contract price is 736.5, with a daily change of 6.0 and a weekly change of 4.5, and the monthly spread is 27.0 [1] - FE01 contract price is 100.75, with a daily change of 0.05 and a weekly change of 1.24, and the monthly spread is -4.33 [1] - FE05 contract price is 98.41, with a daily change of 0.20 and a weekly change of 1.26, and the monthly spread is 2.34 [1] - FE09 contract price is 96.42, with a daily change of 0.26 and a weekly change of 1.33, and the monthly spread is 1.99 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, due to a significant decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have also shown signs of weakness, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, steel futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the oscillation range is narrowing, hinting at a potential breakout [2]. - For the iron ore sector, as the off - season for consumption approaches, iron ore production is expected to decline along the seasonal trend, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the peak, and port inventory is rising, which suppresses the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract price has broken through the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands but faces resistance from a dense trading area [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils Supply and Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased month - on - month, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remained significantly higher than the historical average, with greater inventory pressure [2]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 82.81%, down 0.32 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 236.28 million tons, down 0.60 million tons (0.25%); the proportion of profitable steel mills was 37.66%, down 1.30 percentage points [3]. - The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons (3.98%); hot - rolled coil production was 316.01 million tons, up 2.35 million tons (0.75%) [3]. - The five - major steel product social inventory was 1029.41 million tons, down 31.98 million tons (3.01%); threaded steel social inventory was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons (3.78%); hot - rolled coil social inventory was 324.09 million tons, down 8.91 million tons (2.68%) [3]. Price and Basis - The closing price of the threaded steel futures main contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day (1.05%) and down 8 yuan from last week (- 0.26%); the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day (0.76%) and down 7 yuan from last week (- 0.21%) [3]. - The threaded steel main contract basis was 151 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the hot - rolled coil main contract basis was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for a pullback before going long for medium - term trading [2]. 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production decreased month - on - month, while the output of the five major steel products increased. As the off - season approaches, iron ore production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices [4]. - Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the peak, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the slow destocking of steel dampens market sentiment [4]. Price and Basis - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 5.0 yuan from the previous day (0.64%) and up 2.0 yuan from last week (0.25%) [4]. - The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 52.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.0 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 28 yuan/dry ton, down 3.0 yuan [4]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach. Wait patiently for a price pullback before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Industry News - Due to heavy snow at the Ganqimao Port on the 24th, the outbound transportation in the domestic direction stopped at around 14:00. The number of customs - cleared vehicles on the 24th is expected to be less than 1000 [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3278.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 238.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2637.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 271.3 million tons [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [6]. - Two coal mines in Linfen Ancient County stopped production on November 20th - 21st, with a total approved capacity of 2.4 million tons, mainly producing coking coal. The pre - shutdown daily output of raw coal was 10,000 tons, and the resumption time is yet to be determined [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons (2.5%), showing a continuous downward trend [7].

Group 1: Spot Market Information - Newman powder price is 787, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 7; the import profit is -11.31 [1] - PB powder price is 790, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 7; the import profit is -10.56 [1] - Mac powder price is 783, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 10; the import profit is 15.11 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 743, with no daily change and a weekly change of 9; the import profit is 10.38 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 726, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 4; the import profit is -17.07 [1] - Super special powder price is 670, with a daily change of -5 and no weekly change; the import profit is -31.41 [1] - Carajás powder price is 883, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 1; the import profit is -10.37 [1] - Brazilian blended powder price is 831, with no daily change and a weekly change of 11; the import profit is 5.30 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 767, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -16 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 772, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -16 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 875, with a daily change of -1 and no weekly change [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 732, with no daily change and a weekly change of 9 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 877, with a daily change of -1 and no weekly change [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 777, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 7; the import profit is 17.91 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 849, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 7 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 605, with a daily change of -5 and no weekly change [1] - Atlas powder price is 721, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 4 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1014, with no daily change and a weekly change of 6 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Information - i2601 contract price is 785.5, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of 13.0; the monthly spread is -55.0, with a daily change of 0.8 and a weekly change of -11.5 [1] - i2605 contract price is 756.0, with a daily change of 3.0 and a weekly change of 12.5; the monthly spread is 29.5, with a daily change of -5.2 and a weekly change of -11.0 [1] - i2609 contract price is 730.5, with a daily change of 2.5 and a weekly change of 9.0; the monthly spread is 25.5, with a daily change of -4.7 and a weekly change of -7.5 [1] - FE01 contract price is 100.70, with a daily change of -0.50 and a weekly change of 0.99; the monthly spread is -4.54, with a daily change of 0.9 and a weekly change of 6.3 [1] - FE05 contract price is 98.21, with a daily change of -0.39 and a weekly change of 0.81; the monthly spread is 2.49, with a daily change of -36.2 and a weekly change of -0.7 [1] - FE09 contract price is 96.16, with a daily change of -0.31 and a weekly change of 0.84; the monthly spread is 2.05, with a daily change of -44.8 and a weekly change of -3.4 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore markets moved sideways this week with little overall fluctuation [62]. - The current operating logic of the black industrial chain lies in weak terminal consumption, with the slump in the real - estate industry being the core factor. The negative feedback mechanism in the industrial chain is transmitted upwards, and different links are affected differently according to their industry status. Overall, weak demand suppresses prices [62]. - On Monday, prices rose due to the influence of rumors, and market expectations for policies are a key factor in price fluctuations. However, the probability of substantial policy introduction is low in the current environment [62]. - The report maintains the previous view that the fundamentals are bearish, and the overall steel and ore markets will remain in a weak pattern [62]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Iron Ore Spot Prices**: PB powder price increased from 783 yuan/wet ton to 790 yuan/wet ton, and Bar - mixed powder price rose from 820 yuan/wet ton to 831 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: PB powder's spot landing profit decreased from - 5.41 yuan/wet ton to - 12.08 yuan/wet ton, while Bar - mixed powder's increased from 18.38 yuan/wet ton to 21.87 yuan/wet ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volumes**: Australia's shipments to China increased from 1454.2 million tons to 1812.1 million tons, and Brazil's shipments rose from 725.7 million tons to 847.9 million tons [6]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventories and Related Data**: Imported iron ore port inventory decreased by 77.99 million tons to 15734.85 million tons, the arrival volume decreased by 399.4 million tons to 2369.9 million tons, the port clearance volume increased by 3.11 million tons to 343.39 million tons, the daily port trading volume decreased by 10.5 million tons to 91.6 million tons, the average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.6 million tons to 236.28 million tons, and the steel - enterprise profitability rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66% [6]. 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Product Prices**: Shanghai rebar price increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3260 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel - Making Furnace Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 82.19%, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 69.13% [33]. - **Steel Product Profits**: Rebar blast - furnace profit decreased by 1 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, hot - rolled coil blast - furnace profit decreased by 16 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and rebar electric - furnace profit increased by 42 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar weekly output increased by 7.96 million tons to 207.96 million tons, and hot - rolled coil weekly output rose by 2.35 million tons to 316.01 million tons [33]. 3.2.2 Another Set of One - Week Data Changes - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar's weekly social inventory decreased by 15.73 million tons to 400.02 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory dropped by 7.1 million tons to 153.32 million tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly social inventory decreased by 8.91 million tons to 324.09 million tons, and its weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 78.02 million tons [35]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: Rebar's weekly apparent consumption increased by 14.42 million tons to 230.79 million tons, and hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent consumption rose by 10.83 million tons to 324.42 million tons [35]. - **Building Material Trading Volume**: The building material trading volume decreased by 9111 tons to 95010 tons [35]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates are important indicators for steel production capacity utilization [41]. - **Steel Production Volumes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production volumes in China are presented over different time periods, showing trends in production [43][45]. - **Steel Profits**: The average profit of electric - furnace steel for construction use in China is shown over time, reflecting the profitability of the steel - making process [50]. - **Steel Inventories**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories in social and enterprise warehouses in China are presented, which are important for analyzing supply - demand relationships [51][52]. - **Steel Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building - use steel by mainstream traders in China is shown, indicating market activity [54]. - **Steel Apparent Consumption**: The weekly apparent consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different years are presented, helping to understand market demand [56]. - **Steel Exports**: The monthly export volume of steel in China is shown, which is related to the international market demand for Chinese steel [57]. - **Real - Estate Indicators**: The year - on - year cumulative investment completion of residential buildings by real - estate development enterprises, the year - on - year cumulative sales area of commercial housing, the year - on - year cumulative new construction, construction, and completion areas of houses, and the manufacturing PMI are presented, which are related to the demand for steel in the real - estate and manufacturing industries [58][59][61].

- The report introduces three quantitative models: Commodity Term Structure, Commodity Time-Series Momentum, and Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory. These models are combined into a Composite Commodity Strategy using equal weighting of the three sub-strategies[25][26][28] - **Commodity Term Structure Model**: This model is constructed based on the roll yield factor to capture the contango and backwardation states of commodities. It dynamically goes long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[26][30][33] - **Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model**: This model uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- and long-term trends in domestic commodities. It dynamically goes long on assets with upward trends and short on assets with downward trends[26][35][36] - **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model**: This model is based on the inventory factor to reflect changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals. It dynamically goes long on assets with declining inventory and short on assets with increasing inventory[26][40][43] - **Evaluation of Models**: The Commodity Term Structure Model is noted for its strong performance, achieving a new high in net value during backtesting. The Time-Series Momentum Model has shown weaker performance recently, while the Cross-Sectional Inventory Model has demonstrated moderate gains[25][35][40] - **Backtesting Results**: - Commodity Term Structure Model: Two-week return of 2.31%, year-to-date return of 7.46%[30][33][34] - Commodity Time-Series Momentum Model: Two-week return of -0.38%, year-to-date return of -3.19%[35][36][39] - Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model: Two-week return of 0.98%, year-to-date return of 5.43%[40][43][44]

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 库存结构性矛盾，矿价震荡运行 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/22 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：全球铁矿石发运总量3516.4万吨，环比增加447.4万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2908.7万吨，环比增加360.1万吨。澳洲发运量2050.4 万吨，环比增加239.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1873.0万吨，环比增加339.0万吨。巴西发运量858.2万吨，环比增加120.5万吨。中国47 港到港总量2369.9万吨，环比减少399.4万吨；中国45港到港总量2268.9万吨，环比减少472.3万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比上周减少0.60万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率88.58%，环比上周减少0.22个百分点；钢厂盈利率37.66%， 环比上周减少1.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests patience with the Iron Ore 05 contract, waiting for basis repair and market sentiment to improve. Consider shorting at a high price after the contract rebounds above 770 yuan to enhance safety margins. Shorting at current price and basis levels may lead to double losses [2][3][5]. - The short - term price of iron ore is strong, mainly driven by the strong coking coal price. However, the policy is now focused on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", and coking coal prices are expected to fall, which will support iron ore prices [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are in short - term supply - demand balance. Although the overall port inventory is high, the shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, a strong spot market, and a widened basis [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: Decreasing port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - high grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis; the sharp decline in coking coal prices creates room for iron ore prices; steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3]. - **Negative Factors**: China is in a macro - vacuum period with weak high - frequency economic data; the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped significantly, reducing market risk appetite [3]. - **Market Situation**: Iron ore prices are in a wide - range shock, with short - term strength driven by coking coal. The coking coal price is expected to fall due to policy changes. Iron ore fundamentals are in short - term balance, with high basis and a positive spread pattern [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait for basis repair before considering shorting the far - month contract of iron ore [3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The Iron Ore 2601 contract should be traded within the range of [760, 810] [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about price drops, short the iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at 820 - 830; sell call options (I2512 - C - 830) with a 30% ratio at high prices [7]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, go long on iron ore futures directly (I2512) with a 30% hedging ratio at 780 - 790; sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780) with a 40% ratio at high prices [7]. 1.4 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: Iron water cost increased by 45.18 yuan/ton week - on - week and 105.16 yuan/ton month - on - month; blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton week - on - week; blast furnace rebar profit remained unchanged week - on - week [7]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Data**: Global shipments increased by 447.4 tons week - on - week; Australian and Brazilian shipments increased by 390.3 tons week - on - week; 45 - port arrivals decreased by 472.3 tons week - on - week [8]. - **Iron Ore Demand Data**: Daily average steel mill shipments increased by 2.97 tons week - on - week; daily average iron water production decreased by 0.6 tons week - on - week; blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [10]. - **Iron Ore Inventory Data**: 45 - port imported ore inventory decreased by 75.06 tons week - on - week; steel mill imported ore inventory decreased by 74.78 tons week - on - week [11]. 2. Supply 2.1 Global Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of global iron ore shipments, year - to - date cumulative global shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative global shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [12]. 2.2 Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis - Studied the seasonality of shipments from the four major mines, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between cumulative shipment differences and iron ore index closing prices [16][17]. 2.3 Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of non - mainstream mine shipments, year - to - date cumulative shipment differences, and the relationship between the Platts iron ore index and non - mainstream mine shipments. Also examined the proportion of non - mainstream mines and four major mines in global shipments [22][26]. 2.4 Arrival and Berthing Analysis - Studied the seasonality of arrivals at 47 ports, year - to - date cumulative arrival volume differences, the number of ships at berth, berthing days, and actual arrival volume [28][30][32]. 2.5 Capsize Shipping Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of freight prices for capsize ships on different routes, the proportion of iron ore freight in different products, and the seasonality of capsize ship speeds [36][39][41]. 2.6 Domestic Ore Supply Analysis - Examined the seasonality of daily average iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises and monthly iron concentrate production of 433 mining enterprises, as well as the year - to - date cumulative daily average production seasonality and monthly production year - on - year changes [44][46]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Iron Water Analysis - Studied the seasonality of daily average iron water production of 247 steel enterprises, the relationship between iron water production and blast furnace maintenance, and the relationship between iron water production and iron ore prices [48][50][52]. 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Analyzed the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between profits and future production of different steel products [54][57][60]. 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and price - cost relationship of rebar, as well as the production proportion of short - process steel mills and the relationship between rebar prices and cement shipments [66][71][72]. 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - rolled Coil - Analyzed the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [74][75][77]. 3.6 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - thick Plate - Studied the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [79][80]. 3.5 Export Analysis - Analyzed China's steel export volume, port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits of hot - rolled coils [99][100][101]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of 45 - port iron ore imports, the structure of port inventory, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore prices [103][105][107]. 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of iron ore imports in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills and in - transit iron ore, and the estimated turnover days of iron ore inventory [122][123]. 5. Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Provided the basis and delivery profit data of different iron ore varieties, and analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different iron ore contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [124][125]. 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio for different contracts [127]. 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore spread for different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore prices [129][130]. 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis - Studied the iron - scrap steel price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and scrap steel consumption ratio, and the relationship between the iron - scrap steel price difference and iron water - scrap steel daily consumption [132][133][135].

Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Iron Ore Prices Under Pressure at High Levels [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, iron ore prices rose from the bottom. Supply-side disturbances resurfaced, significantly impacting market sentiment in the short term, but the room for further increase is limited. The overall supply pattern in the fourth quarter remains loose. The rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and it is predicted that iron ore prices will mainly operate with a high-level downward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: Since November, the supply side has remained stable. Mainstream Australian mines are basically flat year-on-year, while Brazilian mines contribute a small increase. Non-mainstream shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter but still contribute an increase year-on-year. From the demand side, domestic terminal steel demand has shown signs of improvement in the fourth quarter but remains low in the medium term. Overseas steel demand maintains high growth. Overall, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices, and the iron ore supply-demand pattern in China has become looser since the fourth quarter [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading, and adopt a wait-and-see approach for arbitrage and options trading [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Global Iron Ore Shipment Volume - Global iron ore shipment volume has rebounded rapidly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.13 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% or 28 million tons. Among them, the weekly average of Australian shipments is 17.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% or 2 million tons, and the weekly average of Brazilian shipments is 7.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% or 11.5 million tons [6][13]. - Non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments have rebounded slightly on a weekly basis. In 2025 to date, the weekly average of non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore shipments is 18.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The third quarter saw an improvement in non-mainstream iron ore shipments, and although the fourth quarter shipments have slightly declined compared to the high in the third quarter, they still contribute a certain increase year-on-year [14][15]. 3.2.2 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore ports has slightly declined. Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation has exceeded 12 million tons. Currently, the total domestic iron element inventory is at a high level in the past five years, second only to the level in 2021 [16][25]. 3.2.3 Terminal Steel Demand - Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic molten iron production has increased by 3.3% or 11.3 million tons year-on-year, and crude steel production has increased by 3% or 12 million tons year-on-year. However, domestic crude steel consumption has decreased by 3.3% or 12.3 million tons year-on-year (excluding exports). Overseas iron element consumption has increased by nearly 4% or 27.6 million tons year-on-year, and has been at a high level year-on-year since the second quarter, continuously contributing an increase [26][30]. 3.2.4 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - The overall supply of iron ore in the fourth quarter remains loose, and the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate medium-term iron ore prices [3]. 3.2.5 Iron Ore Price and Profit - No specific summary of price and profit trends is provided in the text, but only various price and profit data charts are presented. 3.2.6 Iron Ore Futures Basis and Spread - The basis of the iron ore main contract has room to decline, and various basis and spread data charts are presented [44]. 3.2.7 Global Four Major Mines' Shipments - Various data charts of the global shipments of the four major mines are presented, but no specific summary is provided [46]. 3.2.8 Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory Structure - Various data charts of the port inventory structure of imported iron ore are presented, but no specific summary is provided [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly due to a decrease in arrivals and port inventories. The Fed's December rate cut expectation weakened, and the iron ore supply pressure was alleviated by a decline in arrivals in recent weeks. The iron ore production remained above 2.35 million tons, but the current weakness in the coking coal and steel markets might affect the ore price. The I2601 contract should focus on the resistance around 800, with short - term trading and attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of the close on November 21, the iron ore main contract futures price was 785.5 (+13) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 844 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6]. - **Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 447,400 tons week - on - week. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, and the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 29.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.601 million tons [5][6]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 399,400 tons. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399,400 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472,300 tons; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.413 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484,500 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production decreased by 600 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 77,990 tons. As of November 21, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,990 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 194,530 tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,780 tons [6]. - **Profit Margin**: The steel mill profit margin was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89 percentage points [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the Fed had a large divergence on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections were launched, and the central bank kept the loan prime rates unchanged. In terms of supply and demand, the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories declined. The steel mill blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and hot metal production were slightly adjusted downwards. Technically, the I2601 contract of iron ore rushed up and consolidated, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving average combination. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards but had not effectively broken through the 0 axis [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated strongly. It was stronger than the I2605 contract, with a spread of 29.5 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions**: On November 21, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 800, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 527, an increase of 27,890 from the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On November 21, the Macfayden powder ore with 61% iron content at Qingdao Port was reported at 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the iron ore spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 59 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, while the arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased by 77,990 tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3110 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased by 74,780 tons week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 950 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio decreased by 0.16 days [35]. - **Inventory Availability Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large - and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On November 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2170, a week - on - week increase of 145 [40]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In October, China's iron ore imports decreased by 5.017 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports increased by 0.7% year - on - year. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines increased by 0.38% week - on - week, the daily average fine powder output increased by 240 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2410 tons [43]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Output**: In October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. In September, the iron fine powder output of 433 domestic iron mines decreased by 35,600 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.5% [47]. 4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Output**: In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [50]. - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, cumulative exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and cumulative imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [50]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On November 21, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [53]. 5. Options Market - Due to the support of the decline in iron ore inventory, the ore price was strong, but the overall black sector was weak, especially the decline in steel mill profits might squeeze the ore price. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options when iron ore rebounds [56].