Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "mid - cap blue - chip" style is strengthening, and the market in March 2026 may follow the logic of the cycle + high - end manufacturing sectors. The report is optimistic about the cycle and manufacturing fields, suggesting to focus on chemical, non - ferrous (especially small and medium - sized metals), agricultural products and related shipping and transportation in the cycle field, and military industry, large aircraft, new energy, robots, high - end equipment in the manufacturing field. Based on the industry and style rotation model, it also recommends paying attention to non - ferrous metals, communication, national defense and military industry, coal, basic chemical industries and the mid - cap value style in March [7][60]. Summary by Directory ETF Market Overview - As of February 27, 2026, there are 1447 domestic ETF products, an increase of 49 compared with the beginning of the year, and the total scale is 5.39 trillion yuan, a rebound of 584 billion yuan from the previous month [7][10]. Dynamics of ETFs in Each Asset Class - **A - share ETFs**: There are 1093 A - share ETFs, an increase of 6 from the previous month, and the total scale is 3.12 trillion yuan, a rebound of 192 billion yuan. The scale of two products exceeds 100 billion yuan, and oil and gas, ship, and non - ferrous related products have the highest increases in performance [12][14]. - **Cross - border ETFs**: There are 257 cross - border ETFs, an increase of 2 from the previous month, and the total scale is 1.0179 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 billion yuan. South Korea - China chip, S&P oil and gas, and Brazil - related ETFs are relatively active, with the South Korea - China chip ETF from Huatai - Peregrine up more than 30% [21][23]. - **Bond ETFs**: There are 53 bond ETFs, the same as the previous month, and the total scale is 735 billion yuan, an increase of 137 billion yuan. Credit bond ETFs mainly composed of science and technology innovation bonds contribute the most to the increase [29]. - **Commodity ETFs**: There are 17 commodity ETFs, the same as the previous month, and the total scale is 344.3 billion yuan, a continuous increase of 21.4 billion yuan from the previous month. Soybean meal and non - ferrous ETFs have higher increases than gold ETFs in the past month [35]. Manager Landscape - **Manager Scale and Ranking**: The scale of leading fund managers has stabilized this month after a significant decline last month. As of February 27, 2026, Huaxia Fund and E Fund still rank top two in non - monetary ETF management scale. In terms of broad - based ETFs, Huaxia Fund ranks first, and in terms of industry ETFs, Huaxia Fund and E Fund are in the top two. The ranking of the top 20 in total ETF scale is also relatively stable this month [41]. - **Manager Competition Pattern Change**: The concentration of leading ETF managers has been declining since the beginning of 2026. As of February 27, 2026, the scale concentration of the top 10 managers has decreased by about 0.1 percentage points to 72.52% compared with the previous month, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared with the 4 - percentage - point decline last month [44]. Capital Flow Changes - **Large - scale Assets**: Capital has flowed out of A - share ETFs by over 200 billion yuan again, but the intensity has narrowed. It has continued to flow into cross - border and commodity ETFs. In the past month, capital has flowed out of the ETF market by 136.3 billion yuan in total, with A - share products having the largest outflow of 215.1 billion yuan, while cross - border and commodity products have inflows of 48 and 19 billion yuan respectively [7][47]. - **Sub - sectors**: Capital has significantly reduced its allocation to CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and science and technology innovation bonds, and increased its allocation to communication, Hang Seng Technology, gold, short - term financing bonds, and semiconductor/chip sectors [7][50]. Product Application Dynamics - In February 2026, 54 new product applications were received, an increase of 6 from the previous month. Products related to petroleum, electricity, agriculture and other industries with cyclical attributes had relatively more applications [58]. ETF Monthly Investment Strategy - **Based on Industry and Style Rotation Strategy**: The industry rotation strategy based on prosperity suggests being optimistic about non - ferrous metals, communication, national defense and military industry, coal, and basic chemical industries in March 2026. The style rotation strategy shows that the prosperity of the growth style may decline marginally in March, while the value style may diverge, and the mid - cap value style may continue to expand. - **Based on Subjective Strategy Analysis**: The investment focus will shift to "mid - cap blue - chips". It is recommended to focus on the cycle and manufacturing fields. In the cycle field, pay attention to chemicals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products and related shipping and transportation; in the manufacturing field, focus on military industry, large aircraft, new energy, robots, and high - end equipment. - **March ETF Asset Pool**: A reference pool of equity ETFs for March 2026 is provided, covering mid - cap broad - based, strategy - based, technology - manufacturing, and cyclical sectors [60][78][79].

行业研究 | 基础化工 证券研究报告/行业研究/行业深度 2026 年 3 月 8 日 中东局势升级 化工行业 2 月月报 研报摘要 强于大市（维持) 行业指数与大盘走势对比 证券分析师 刘艳平 S0670512050002 liuyanping@jrjzq.com.cn 请仔细阅读报告末页声明 行业观点：（1）宏观行业数据看，2 月 PMI 为 49.0%，比上月降低 0.3 个百分点；主要原材料购进价格指数比上月降低 1.3 个百分点；1 月份 PPI 当月同比为-1.4%，比上月降幅收窄 0.5 个百分点；细分行业 PPI 看， 石油和天然气开采业﹑化学原料和化学制品制造业降幅扩大，化学纤维 制造业降幅收窄；（2）下游行业 2025 年全年当月同比平均增速数据看， 汽车产量增速提高，房地产新开工施工面积累计同比降幅收窄，纺织纱 线﹑织物及其制品出口金额﹑新能源汽车产量﹑集成电路产量﹑家用电 器出口金额增速下滑；（3）2 月上游原材料价格数据看，WTI 原油均价 比上月均价上涨 7.11%，NYMEX 天然气均价﹑秦皇岛 5500K 动力煤均价较 上月均价分别下跌 26.70%﹑0.44%；（4）估值看， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upside space for industrial silicon is limited, and attention should be paid to the spot trading situation of polysilicon [1]. - Singapore has raised its 2030 solar power installation target from 2GW to 3GW and will continue to deploy solar power on rooftops, land, and water surfaces, while exploring new solutions such as photovoltaic canopies for open - air parking lots [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closed at 8,670 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from T - 1, up 345 yuan from T - 5, and down 90 yuan from T - 22. Its trading volume was 405,785 lots, and the open interest was 251,171 lots [1]. - PS2605 closed at 42,700 yuan/ton, up 1,585 yuan from T - 1, down 2,230 yuan from T - 5. Its trading volume was 19,269 lots, and the open interest was 35,210 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon spot premiums and discounts varied for different benchmarks. For example, the premium for industrial silicon against East China Si5530 was +580 yuan/ton [1]. - The premium for polysilicon against N - type re - investment was +5300 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1, up 50 yuan from T - 5, and down 100 yuan from T - 22 [1]. - The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 48900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1, down 3000 yuan from T - 5, and down 3600 yuan from T - 22 [1]. 3.1.4 Profit - The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2461.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 5341 yuan/ton [1]. - The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 4.5 yuan/kg [1]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.3 million tons, and the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 19.6 million tons. The industry inventory was 74.9 million tons [1]. - The factory inventory of polysilicon was 34.8 million tons [1]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 230 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1475 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 1200 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Singapore has raised its 2030 solar power installation target from 2GW to 3GW. Over 80% of its solar power installed capacity comes from rooftop photovoltaics, and there are government - led incentive programs. The investment pay - back period for household solar power has been shortened to five years, and solar system owners can sell electricity through renewable energy certificates [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is also 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 10 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货3月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black - series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are likely to remain in a range - bound and weak operation. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily cement and building material consumption [3] - The short - term escalation of the US - Iran situation has driven up the prices of oil, gas, and chemical sectors, shifting the overall commodity sentiment towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate. Looking for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and high - elasticity varieties may be a better choice [10][16] - For the medium - to long - term, the report is still optimistic about coking coal prices, especially during the period from June to October when factors such as the safety - production month and peak consumption season overlap [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton (1.003%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,951 tons, a net increase of 305 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.7408 million lots, a net decrease of 57,900 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.238%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 478,116 tons, a net increase of 5901 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.2926 million lots, a net decrease of 106,185 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Strategy Views** - Macro - policies provide medium - term support for steel demand, but the incremental pull on steel demand is relatively limited. The demand for hot - rolled coils has declined this week, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply and demand of rebar are both increasing, but the inventory accumulation rate is relatively fast. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and weak [3] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 784.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.62% (+12.50). The open interest changed by - 14,997 lots to 473,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 872,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 36.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.41% [4] - **Strategy Views** - Overseas ore shipments have declined, while near - end arrivals have rebounded. The daily pig iron output has decreased, and the steel mill profit rate has declined. The port inventory is basically flat, and the steel mill inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On March 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose more than 4% in the morning and then fell back, finally closing up 0.03% at 6132 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 8 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose more than 5% in the morning and then fell, closing down 0.20% at 5868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 382 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Views** - In the short term, due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, short - selling operations may be inappropriate. Manganese silicon has a loose supply - demand pattern, and ferrosilicon has good fundamentals. Future market trends will be affected by the overall black - series direction, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction of ferrosilicon [10][11] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On March 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) rose by the daily limit in the morning and then gave back some gains, finally closing up 4.01% at 1168.0 yuan/ton [13] - The main contract of coke (J2605) rose more than 6.5% and then fell, closing up 2.62% at 1740.0 yuan/ton [13] - **Strategy Views** - The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" have a slightly positive impact on coking coal. In the short term, downstream de - stocking and increasing supply will restrict the price increase. In the medium - to long - term, prices are expected to rise from June to October [15][16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8670 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.23% (-20). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 32,429 lots to 353,337 lots [18] - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 42,700 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.86% (+1585). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 2067 lots to 55,685 lots [21] - **Strategy Views** - In March, industrial silicon may see a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but it is difficult to reduce high inventory. Prices are expected to fluctuate or rebound. Polysilicon also shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction may be limited. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [20][22] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of glass closed at 1104 yuan/ton on Monday, up 1.56% (+17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the week of March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 4.77% [24] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1276 yuan/ton on Monday, up 2.74% (+34). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises in the week of March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 4.77% [26] - **Strategy Views** - The situation in the Middle East has led to a bullish commodity sentiment. The demand for glass has slightly improved, and the price is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1171 yuan/ton [25] - The current rise in soda ash is mainly driven by cost, and the demand has not improved substantially. The price in March is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector, in the range of 1230 - 1330 yuan/ton [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for traditional manufacturing industries to undergo digital and green transformation, positioning them as key drivers of new productive forces and technological self-reliance [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the importance of leveraging China's rich data resources and comprehensive industrial system to accelerate digital technology innovation and promote deep changes in production methods [2] - Challenges faced by traditional manufacturing in digital transformation include weak data infrastructure, high barriers to technology innovation, and lagging alignment with international digital and green standards [2] Group 2 - Recommendations include establishing a national-level AI public computing power and data model foundation to support traditional industries in adopting AI technologies [3] - It is suggested to empower leading enterprises to define technology needs and explore new mechanisms for risk-sharing in the adoption of domestic technologies [3] - The importance of building a national standard system for carbon footprint accounting and green hydrogen is highlighted, along with the need for participation in international standard-setting [4]

Core Viewpoint - In February, China's PPI and CPI both exceeded market expectations, with PPI and CPI surpassing Wind's consensus forecast by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [1] Group 1: PPI Analysis - The strong performance of PPI is primarily driven by rising prices in non-ferrous metals and crude oil, which are input factors [1] - Estimated contributions to PPI's month-on-month increase include non-ferrous smelting (0.32 percentage points), chemicals (0.08 percentage points), computer communications (0.08 percentage points), and oil extraction (0.04 percentage points) [1] - The anticipated timing for PPI's year-on-year positive growth may be advanced further [1] Group 2: CPI Analysis - Key drivers for CPI include price increases in the service sector (air tickets, car rentals, travel agencies, hotel accommodations) and rising prices of crude oil and gold, in addition to the "Spring Festival misalignment" factor [1] - Under the current fluctuating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran, there may be sustained upward momentum in crude oil prices [1] - An estimated 1% increase in Brent crude oil prices could lead to a PPI increase of approximately 0.04 to 0.05 percentage points and a CPI increase of 0.01 to 0.02 percentage points [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank of China is not expected to tighten monetary policy due to oil supply shocks and price increases, with a greater focus on observing changes in demand-side factors [1]

Core Insights - Hunstman Group is a specialty and specialty chemicals company focused on differentiated development strategies in global downstream markets, leveraging advanced technology and creativity to develop innovative products across diverse consumer and industrial end markets, including aerospace, transportation, construction, consumer goods, energy fuels, and food storage [2]. Event Participation - Hunstman will collaborate with its South China agent, Guangzhou Huisheng, to showcase at the Advanced Nylon Industry Innovation and Application Development Conference on March 19-20, 2026, in Guangzhou, inviting attendees to discuss the future possibilities of nylon materials [5][7]. Product Focus: ELASTAMINE® Polyether Amine - ELASTAMINE® polyether amine is emerging as a "secret weapon" in enhancing material performance in advanced nylon modification, demonstrating superior processing performance and physicochemical properties compared to traditional polyether diols [8]. - The product offers rapid reaction times, significantly shortening production cycles while ensuring precision and efficiency [10]. - It exhibits enhanced chemical stability due to amide groups, which are more resistant to hydrolysis than ester groups, making it suitable for various applications [10]. - ELASTAMINE® can significantly improve the hydrophilicity and moisture permeability of thermoplastic plastics through grafting or copolymerization reactions, with the RE series focusing on extreme hydrophilic modification [11]. - The unique molecular structure of ELASTAMINE® provides effective antistatic performance, maintaining high protection even in low-humidity environments, ideal for electronic packaging and precision components [13]. - By incorporating polyether amine segments into the nylon backbone, ELASTAMINE® enhances the overall mechanical properties of nylon elastomers, including improved flexibility, higher impact strength, and excellent low-temperature performance [15]. - Hunstman offers a diverse product portfolio to meet unique innovation needs, including the RE series for moisture absorption and lasting antistatic properties, and the RP/RT series for enhanced toughness, elasticity, and mechanical strength [17]. Technical Presentations - Hunstman will host a technical presentation at the conference, featuring senior R&D engineers who will delve into how polyether amines empower nylon innovation [20]. - The presentation will focus on the performance enhancement and innovative development of nylon elastomers through ELASTAMINE® [21].

Group 1 - The core focus of the report is on the integration of computing power and electricity, termed "算电协同," which has been included in the national infrastructure plans for 2026, indicating a shift from policy planning to industrial practice [2][3][14] - The report highlights that the electricity sector has shown excess returns, with the CITIC Power and Utilities Index rising 7.46% since February 13, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 8.71 percentage points [21][14] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the electricity industry driven by green electricity direct supply and data centers, with specific segments like power supply services, power equipment, and green electricity operations expected to benefit [3][21][24] Group 2 - OpenAI has released its flagship model GPT-5.4, which marks a significant evolution towards a "native digital employee" paradigm, capable of automating complex desktop workflows and directly controlling system operations [2][28][36] - The model introduces a new "Thinking" mode that allows for real-time human intervention and logical correction, significantly reducing the hallucination rate by 33% [28][32] - The report notes that the AI industry is transitioning from a dialogue-based generator to fully autonomous agents, indicating a shift in commercial value capture from broad consumer platforms to deep integration within enterprise workflows [36][28] Group 3 - The report suggests investment opportunities in four main lines due to the "算电协同" policy: power supply service providers, power equipment manufacturers, green electricity operators, and regulatory power companies [24][25][27] - The demand for high-reliability power supply equipment and green electricity grid integration devices is expected to increase as data centers and green electricity projects scale up [25][26] - The report indicates that the integration of computing power and electricity will enhance the economic and strategic value of regulatory power sources, as they will be crucial in maintaining grid stability amid fluctuating demands [27][24] Group 4 - The report identifies five sectors with marginal improvements to focus on in March: chemicals, lithium mining, domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, and overseas computing power [38][40] - It highlights that the chemical sector is experiencing price support due to supply constraints and rising demand, particularly in refrigerants and titanium dioxide [41][40] - The lithium mining sector is also noted for its price increases, with expectations of further upward movement due to supply disruptions and strong demand [41][40] Group 5 - The global stock market performance shows that energy sectors have performed well, while materials and consumer sectors have shown weaker results [42][43] - The report indicates that the energy sector has been a strong performer across various markets, including the US, Europe, and China, while other sectors like utilities and consumer goods have struggled [42][43] - The report also mentions significant movements in large-cap stocks, particularly in the technology and energy sectors, reflecting broader market trends [48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of A-shares and H-shares in the Chinese stock market compared to other Asia-Pacific markets, highlighting the potential for foreign capital to increase its allocation to China amid geopolitical tensions [1][3][15]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and H-shares have shown resilience, with a decline of around 1% compared to 5-6% in Japan and South Korea, indicating a "China asset" outperformance [3][4]. - The Hang Seng Index and Wind All A Index have experienced declines of -8.47% and -4.31% respectively, while the Nikkei 225 and Korean Composite Index have seen larger declines [6]. Group 2: Foreign Capital Inflow - There are indications of foreign capital increasing its allocation to A-shares, as evidenced by record high securities investment surpluses in January [15]. - In the Hong Kong market, passive index products have consistently seen inflows, suggesting a trend of foreign investment [16][18]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The Hong Kong Financial Secretary noted that ongoing tensions in the Middle East are driving U.S. funds into Hong Kong, as nearly 60% of listed companies are mainland enterprises, providing stability [20][24]. - The diversification of energy imports and proactive energy transition in China are highlighted as strengths in the current geopolitical climate [10][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes that foreign capital is not merely increasing allocations but is also correcting under-allocated positions in China, as evidenced by the low representation of China in global indices [26][30]. - The current low interest rate environment is identified as a significant factor driving investment decisions, with A-shares being viewed as a valuable asset class [35][39]. Group 5: Market Trends and Recommendations - The article suggests that investors should focus on long-term capital and appropriate risk matching, especially in the context of potential market volatility [53]. - It advocates for a diversified investment approach, particularly in high-quality equity investments, as a favorable strategy for ordinary investors [53].