1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on September 30, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to changes in mining certificates, and light - position operations are recommended before the holiday [2][11] - Industrial silicon: Supply and demand are weakening [2][14] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy expectations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,100 yuan, down 280 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 97,757 lots, down 65,749 lots from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,760 yuan, down 80 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 275,456 lots, up 13,269 lots from T - 1 [4] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel production is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target. Some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month. There are also issues such as illegal mining crackdowns and forestry violations in nickel mines [4][5][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73,920 yuan, up 1,040 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 465,591 lots, down 15,429 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2511 basis was - 370 yuan, down 1,090 yuan from T - 1 [11] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,456 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Zimbabwe is building a lithium sulfate plant [12][13] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,610 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 392,702 lots, down 77,321 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the closing price of the PS2511 contract was 51,280 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from T - 1 [15] Macro and Industry News - On September 25, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises to discuss policies for high - quality development [15] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The recent increase in silicon material prices has been noted, with prices surpassing 50,000 yuan/ton, and N-type re-investment material averaging 53,200 yuan/ton, while N-type granular silicon averages 50,500 yuan/ton [4] - The company's performance has been under pressure due to a significant decline in silicon material prices, resulting in a revenue drop of 67.9% year-on-year to 1.47 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net loss of 1.147 billion yuan [1][2] - The company has proactively reduced production to control losses, with a production volume of 50,821 tons in the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 60% year-on-year, effectively alleviating market supply pressure [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's cash cost per kilogram decreased to 37.66 yuan, a 6.6% year-on-year decline, despite an increase in unit costs due to fixed costs from idle production lines [2] - The company's asset-liability ratio is low at 8.04%, with no interest-bearing debt, providing a solid financial foundation to navigate industry cycles [2] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are -1.417 billion yuan, 1.259 billion yuan, and 2.324 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.66 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 1.08 yuan [2][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is strong, with overall supply - demand conditions improving. However, due to the approaching end of pre - holiday restocking and weakening market sentiment, the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the start - up rates in the north and south regions and the start - up rate of polysilicon [5][6]. - For polysilicon, there is an increase in supply and weak demand, with a growing risk of inventory accumulation. Market sentiment is gradually weakening, and it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. The price transmission in the industrial chain should be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 8960 yuan/ton [5][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's production is stable with a small amount of restarts next week; the start - up rate in the northwest is basically stable; Yunnan's start - up rate is stable overall, and the electricity price will increase in October; Sichuan's production is basically flat, and a reduction is expected in late October. Overall, this week's production is basically stable [5]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the demand for silicon powder orders from silicon material enterprises has been released. The production of silicon materials in October is expected to remain high, strongly supporting the demand for industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon has fluctuated slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained stable. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased. In August, the export of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has remained stable this week [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, the same as last week [6]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 51,465 yuan/ton [7][19]. - **Supply**: The start - up of polysilicon has increased slightly this week. In October, the production plan shows that the production cut of silicon material enterprises is less than expected, and the overall output may exceed expectations [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream crystal - pulling enterprises are mostly in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. In August, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity hit a new low this year, and the Q4 downstream demand needs to be tracked. In August, the import volume of polysilicon was 1005.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%; in July, the export was 299.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the procurement rhythm of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the premium of N - type dense material over P - type cauliflower material was 19,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week [24]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica**: As of September 26, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silicon coal was 1600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica was 340 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silica was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Yunnan silica was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Other Costs**: The price of Shandong Port Saudi petroleum coke was 1355 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained unchanged from last week. The price of Yunnan wood chips and charcoal, as well as the price of Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes, remained stable [31][35]. Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: As of September 26, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.35, 1.325, 1.4, and 1.7 yuan/piece respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The price of 210RN has adjusted back to 1.4 yuan/piece [38]. - **Batteries**: As of September 26, 2025, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were 0.32, 0.32, 0.29, and 0.305 yuan/watt respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The prices of some distributed products have declined, while the prices of centralized products have rebounded [42][45]. Organic Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of organic silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is still affected by fundamental sentiment and is expected to show a high - level oscillation next week. It is recommended to place long orders on dips [2]. - The new energy consumption national standard for polysilicon may lead to industry consolidation in the long - term, but in the short - term, market concerns about the progress of capacity elimination and the uncertainty of the "anti - involution" policy are major factors causing market fluctuations. New capacity addition is difficult in the short - term [2]. - On the demand side, silicon wafer prices are flat, some enterprises raise prices, downstream silicon wafer enterprises have high inventories, new order procurement slows down, and domestic PV installation has declined for two consecutive months, resulting in weak terminal demand. However, the growing demand for N - type materials may partially offset the surplus of P - type materials and support prices to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract is 51,280 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day; the main position is 93,768 lots, down 7,718 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,435 yuan, down 120 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,670 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the basis is 1,085 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,610 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons, and the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.89 US dollars/kg, unchanged, and the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of PV modules is 149,022,660 units, up 38,589,980 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,290 units, up 6,914,640 units, and the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars [2]. Industry News - At the 2025 Brazil São Paulo Solar Exhibition, TrinaTracker, a Chinese PV enterprise, announced to supply a 130MW Blazer 1P intelligent tracking system for the Colinas project in Pernambuco, Brazil, indicating continuous breakthroughs of Chinese PV enterprises in the Latin American market with the "global production + local service" strategy [2]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises, calling for leading the fight against "involution - style" competition. A draft for soliciting opinions on the new national standard for energy consumption of polysilicon has been released [2].

Group 1: Report's Overall View - The industry may face a pullback risk, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3] Group 2: Fundamental Situation Price Changes - From September 22nd to September 26th, most prices in the polysilicon industry chain remained stable. Compared with the end of July and August, polysilicon spot prices had significant increases. For example, the average price of N - type dense material increased by 12.20% compared to the end of July and 6.35% compared to the end of August. PV wafer prices also rose, with the average price of N - type 183mm wafers increasing by 12.50% compared to the end of July and 9.76% compared to the end of August. PV cell prices had different degrees of increase, while some distributed project component prices decreased slightly, and some centralized project component prices had a small increase [14] Supply - Demand Balance - The polysilicon supply - demand balance varied from month to month in 2025. From January to June, there was a shortage in most months, with the largest shortage of 2.13 million tons in April. From July to October, there was a surplus, with the largest surplus of 2.75 million tons in August. In November and December, there was a shortage again. The total supply - demand balance for the year showed a shortage of 1.19 million tons [38] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - No specific content provided in the given text

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The apparent inventory-to-sales ratio of the industrial silicon industry in Q3 has dropped below 200%. In Q4, the industrial silicon price may fluctuate in the range of (8,000, 10,000) yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to possible supply-side policy impacts [2][81]. - Since 2025, the polysilicon futures price has fluctuated. In Q4, if the supply side can actively contract, the polysilicon price may be supported; otherwise, the supply-demand imbalance will worsen, and the price may decline. The estimated fluctuation range for Q4 is (45,000, 58,000) yuan/ton [3][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market Review - **Industrial Silicon**: In Q1, the futures price initially rose, then declined after the news of the resumption of production by leading northwest factories. In Q2, the price dropped due to cost reduction during the wet season. In July, the price rebounded significantly, followed by a quick correction and then entered a volatile state [5][6]. - **Polysilicon**: In Q1, the spot price was stable, but the futures price started to decline in March. From April to June, the price dropped sharply, then rebounded in July due to anti - involution policies, and maintained a relatively strong volatile state in August and September [8][10]. 2. Silicon Industry Chain Fundamental Analysis (1) Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - In 2025, the industrial silicon futures - spot basis was mostly positive. In September, the basis of 4210 entered the negative range, and the positive futures - spot arbitrage window opened for nearly a month, which may increase the number of warehouse receipts [13]. (2) Industrial Silicon Industry Cost and Element Changes - The average production cost of the industrial silicon industry has been decreasing since 2025, from 12,146.8 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 9,093.28 yuan/ton. After Q3, the coal price rebounded, but the average cost remained stable at around 9,000 yuan/ton. The future cost may be mainly affected by electricity, with the overall average cost gradually increasing, while the cost in the northwest may change little [16][19]. (3) Industrial Silicon Production Enterprises - From January to July 2025, the average production profit of the industrial silicon industry was negative, and the开工率 was compressed. After the wet season, the开工 rate increased. The output in August reached 370,000 tons, may rise to about 420,000 tons in September, and is likely to remain high in October, then decrease in November and December [24]. (4) Downstream Demand: Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Industry Chain - **Price and Spread Changes**: Since the listing of polysilicon futures, the basis has fluctuated greatly. In H1 2025, the prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and modules generally declined, with a slight rebound in March - April. After July, the prices of silicon wafers and cells rebounded significantly, while the component price was under pressure in Q3 and is expected to continue to be so in Q4 [28][30]. - **Production Situation**: In H1 2025, the average production profit of the polysilicon industry was negative, and the开工率 was low. After July, the profit and开工率 increased rapidly. The production profit of silicon wafers and cells improved in Q3, but the profitability in Q4 may not be optimistic. The output of silicon wafers and cells in September was about 58GW and 55GW respectively, and there is a possibility of a decline in November and December [34][40]. - **Terminal Demand Expectation**: From January to August 2025, the domestic new installed capacity of photovoltaic modules increased year - on - year, but the monthly installed capacity declined significantly after June. The export demand was low from January to July, but increased in August. After September, the export demand is likely to decline [45][47]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of polysilicon reached 265,780 tons. The downstream silicon wafers and cells enterprises maintained low inventories, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased in September [49]. (5) Downstream Demand: Organic Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Profit**: In 2025, the organic silicon price generally declined, with a short - term rebound in February - March. The industry's production profit was mostly negative, and the average gross margin was about - 17% at the end of September [53]. - **Production and Demand**: The开工率 of organic silicon enterprises was low in H1 2025 and increased in July - August. The inventory of organic silicon enterprises remained stable, mainly due to the expansion of the electronics industry and the adjustment of the开工率 [60][64]. (6) Downstream Demand: Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: In 2025, the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the price fluctuated mainly driven by the aluminum price. The output increased significantly year - on - year, but the profit was poor. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry increased steadily [67]. - **Export**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 491,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The export volume increased significantly after June [74]. (7) Industrial Silicon Inventory - In 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was initially high, but the apparent inventory started to decline after May. After July, the total futures - spot inventory remained around 690,000 tons, while the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises increased [77]. 3. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: In Q4, the apparent inventory - to - sales ratio may increase compared to Q3 but may not reach the level of Q2. The price may fluctuate in the range of (8,000, 10,000) yuan/ton [81]. - **Polysilicon**: In Q4, the adjustment of the polysilicon enterprises'开工率 will have a significant impact on the price. The estimated fluctuation range is (45,000, 58,000) yuan/ton [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction between pure nickel inventory accumulation and mine - end issues may increase medium - term volatility, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] - Stainless steel: Short - term supply - demand and cost factors are in play, steel prices will oscillate, and long - term buying at low prices has better cost - effectiveness [5] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and attention should be paid to the downward driving force of the market [27] - Polysilicon: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the policy implementation time [27] - Lithium carbonate: The increase in imported ore has slowed down the destocking of lithium carbonate, and prices will oscillate within a range [61] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel futures price closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,610 yuan/ton; the stainless steel futures price closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Analysis - Nickel: Indonesian nickel mine issues have increased market concerns, while global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply. The supply of pure nickel is increasing while demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [4] - Stainless steel: Demand is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate consumption, while supply is expected to increase. The surplus has narrowed, but the upstream inventory is still high, and the steel price lacks upward momentum but has limited downside space [5] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [7] - Nickel - stainless steel: SMM nickel - iron inventory decreased by 14% month - on - month to 28,652 tons, and stainless steel factory and social inventories showed different trends [7] Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants have suspended production due to losses. China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [8][9][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, and the spot price has risen. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 9,000 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [27] - Polysilicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price remained stable. The futures price closed at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday [27] Fundamental Analysis - Industrial silicon: Supply: The weekly output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and organic silicon support consumption, while the aluminum alloy and export markets are stable [28] - Polysilicon: Supply: The short - term weekly output remains high, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. Demand: The silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the next restocking may occur in mid - October [29][30] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment will decline, and the price may test the cost line of Xinjiang small factories. It is recommended to short at high prices, with an expected price range of 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton next week [31][32] - Polysilicon: Policy expectations have cooled, and the market has returned to fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see, with an expected price range of 49,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton next week [32] Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated within a range. The 2511 contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton [61] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The weekly output reached a new high of 20,516 tons, and the Australian ore shipment increased significantly [62] - Demand: The domestic energy - storage market has exceeded expectations, and the cathode materials are accumulating inventory [62] - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased to 136,800 tons, and the destocking speed has slowed down for three consecutive weeks [62] Market Outlook - The price will oscillate within a range. It is expected that the futures price will be between 70,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended for arbitrage, and upstream factories are advised to increase hedging [63][64][66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed little. Industrial silicon inventory has started to accumulate slightly, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. The price fluctuates with policy disturbances and overall commodity sentiment. Polysilicon is also in a wide - range shock state, affected by factors such as self - regulatory production cuts and policies [2][3][4]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and in the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Price**: In the week of September 26, the industrial silicon futures opened high and closed low. The spot prices continued to rise slightly. As of September 25, the price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week; 441 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; 3303 silicon was 10,500 - 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: The supply side changed little this week, with the weekly output remaining flat at 58,200 tons. The number of metal silicon furnaces in operation decreased by 1 compared with last week. As of September 25, the number of operating furnaces was 310, with an overall operating rate of 38.94% [2]. - **Demand**: The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream aluminum alloys declined slightly. The output of aluminum strips and foils and aluminum rods decreased. The operating rate of organic silicon was 71.2%, with some devices reducing production or under maintenance. The weekly output of DMC decreased slightly. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 100 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The total industry inventory increased slightly. As of September 26, the inventory in the metal silicon futures delivery warehouse was 250,665 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons from September 19. The total industry inventory was 944,900 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from last week [3]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices changed little this week, and the overall cost remained stable [3]. - **Profit**: Self - power - generation enterprises still had good profits. After the rebound of the futures price, most enterprises were not losing money according to cash cost accounting, but some still faced cost pressure according to full - cost accounting [3]. - **Strategy** - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have changed little. In the short term, there is no clear policy drive, and the price may fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. For trading strategies, it is mainly range - bound operation [4]. Polysilicon - **Spot Market** - **Price**: This week, the polysilicon price index was 52.4 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and the price of granular silicon was 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The overall market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price was in a wide - range shock and trended weakly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of polysilicon increased slightly this week, reaching 31,100 tons. The production reduction in October may be less than expected, and attention should be paid to the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry season and the impact of industry policies [4]. - **Demand**: In September, the domestic silicon wafer production schedule was good. It is expected to start reducing production in October. The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers increased slightly this week. The production schedule of battery cells in September increased by 2.3% compared with August, and the production schedule of components decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, a change of 10.8% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23GW, a change of - 3.8% month - on - month [6]. - **Cost**: The cost changed little this week. Most enterprises' full - cost after tax was about 45,000 yuan/ton, except for some enterprises with lower electricity prices [6]. - **Strategy** - The self - regulatory production cuts of polysilicon are average, and the overall fundamentals are average. There is great pressure on inventory accumulation in recent months. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [6].