在严跃进看来，这有助于减轻业主出售短期房产的压力，提高房源流动性。成本的降低有望促使一部分 因税费过高而犹豫的业主进入市场，增加二手房供应。 "这是房地产领域一项关键政策调整，将对降低交易成本和积极去库存，尤其是促进一二手房联动等带 来积极的影响。"上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对上海证券报记者表示。 现行相关法规规定，个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照5%的征收率全额缴纳增值税，此次公 告将5%的征收率降至3%。"这一调整直接降低了房屋出售环节的税费成本。"严跃进举例称，一套售价 100万元、持有未满2年的住房，需缴纳增值税约5万元，新政后只需3万元。 财政部和税务总局日前发布的《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》明确，个人（不含个体工商户中 的一般纳税人）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年 以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。公告自2026年1月1日起施行。 （文章来源：上海证券报） ...

12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人将购买不足2年 的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售 的，免征增值税。《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，新政将降低二手住宅交易摩擦，促进挂牌销售。此前 房地产市场销售纾困政策主要集中在降低首付比例、降低利率等，税费优惠政策较少。新政反映出宏观 政策正在加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳定房地产市场。 （文章来源：证券时报） 本次政策优化主要针对个人出售持有不满2年的住房的情形。该情形下，个人销售住房所缴增值税的税 率从此前的5%下调至3%。以住房售价500万元、个人持有不满2年计算，新政实施后，个人出售该住房 需缴增值税税费15万元，税费成本将较此前减少10万元。 ...

广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，新政将降低二手住宅交易摩擦，促进挂牌销售。此前 房地产市场销售纾困政策主要集中在降低首付比例、降低利率等，税费优惠政策较少。新政反映出宏观 政策正在加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳定房地产市场。(贺觉渊) 12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人将购买不足2年 的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上(含2年)的住房对外销售的， 免征增值税。《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。 本次政策优化主要针对个人出售持有不满2年的住房的情形。该情形下，个人销售住房所缴增值税的税 率从此前的5%下调至3%。以住房售价500万元、个人持有不满2年计算，新政实施后，个人出售该住房 需缴增值税税费15万元，税费成本将较此前减少10万元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will impose a 3% VAT on individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years, while those selling homes purchased for two years or more will be exempt from VAT, reflecting a significant tax reform aimed at simplifying the tax system and promoting a healthier real estate market [1][2]. Group 1 - The VAT rate for individuals selling homes purchased for less than two years will be reduced from 5% to 3% [1]. - The exemption of VAT for individuals selling homes purchased for two years or more maintains legislative consistency following the implementation of the VAT law [1]. - The new policy is expected to provide a direct reduction in tax burden for individuals, positively impacting the development of the real estate market [2]. Group 2 - The VAT law aims to simplify and standardize the tax system by reducing the number of applicable tax rates for small-scale taxpayers [1]. - Prior to the new VAT law, small-scale taxpayers faced VAT rates of either 3% or 5%, with the 5% rate being a carryover from previous business tax policies [1]. - The legislative changes reflect the spirit of tax law and the need for a more streamlined tax structure [1].

Market Overview - Stock market indexes have experienced a slight decline following a strong year, with the Nasdaq up +21% year to date and other major indexes also showing double-digit gains [1] - The Chicago Business Barometer reported a +36.3% print, the lowest since May 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently averaging +2.5% GDP growth, slightly above the +2.4% seen throughout 2024, following a robust +4.3% in Q3 2025 [2] - The CPI Inflation Rate has decreased by 30 basis points to +2.7%, but analysts caution that this data may be revised upward due to potential tariff impacts on trade goods [3] Employment Situation - Weekly Jobless Claims show benign numbers, but new hires are down approximately -100K compared to last year, indicating a potential labor market issue [4] - The retirement boom is cooling, but the workforce is not adequately replenished, and recent graduates face high unemployment rates [4] Housing Market - Pending Home Sales for November increased by +3.3%, marking a positive shift after previous months of decline, while Case-Shiller Home Prices rose by +1.1% in October, reversing prior losses [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the last FOMC meeting reveal differing opinions on interest rate adjustments, with some advocating for a -50bps cut while others support maintaining the current rate [7] - The market anticipates a pause in rate changes at the next FOMC meeting in late January, with significant focus on upcoming inflation and employment reports [8]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of the value-added tax (VAT) policy for personal housing sales is a significant policy change in the real estate sector, aimed at reducing tax burdens and stimulating market activity [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - Individuals selling homes purchased for less than 2 years will now pay VAT at a rate of 3%, down from the previous rate of 5% [1]. - Homes purchased for 2 years or more will be exempt from VAT entirely [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The reduction in VAT rates is expected to lower the selling costs for homeowners, thereby encouraging them to sell their old homes and purchase new ones, which will help meet the demand for improved housing [1]. - A more active second-hand housing market is anticipated to positively influence the new housing market, creating a virtuous cycle in the real estate sector [2]. - The policy is set to take effect on January 1, 2026, with prior unreported VAT on personal housing sales eligible for the new regulations [2].

转自：北京日报客户端 个人销售住房增值税政策明年起调整 新华社北京12月30日电财政部、国家税务总局12月30日对外发布公告，明确自2026年1月1日起，个人 （不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人）将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值 税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 中国政法大学财税法研究中心主任施正文介绍，2026年1月1日起增值税法施行后，继续对个人销售购买 2年以上的住房免征增值税，很好地保持了立法后的税制连贯性。同时，将个人销售购买不足2年的住房 的增值税征收率，从5%下调到3%，是落实增值税法的重要举措，体现了税收法定和简化税制的立法精 神。 据介绍，在增值税法施行前，我国小规模纳税人适用的增值税征收率主要包括3%和5%两档，5%征收率 主要是"营改增"时平移的原营业税政策，个人销售购买不足2年的住房适用5%征收率就是这种情况。增 值税完成立法后，进一步简化和规范了税制，减少征收率档次。根据增值税法及其实施条例的规定，小 规模纳税人适用3%的征收率。 施正文表示，明年起，个人销售购买不足2年的住房，可充分享受立法红利，其增值税税负有较为直观 的下降， ...

12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》称，个人(不含个体工商户中的一般纳税人，下同)将购买不 足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上(含2年)的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。 该公告自2026年1月1日起施行。 此次政策前，个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销售时，增值税税率为5%。因此，此次政策出台后，二手住宅交易成本将进一步下降。 以房屋出售价格200万元、持有未满两年计算，新政前需缴纳的增值税为10万元，新政后只需缴纳6万元，政策将节约4万元的交易成本。 这也是自2016年全面"营改增"以来，我国首次对个人销售住房增值税税率进行调整。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉指出，随着交易成本的下降，更多的需求将被释放。同时，因交易成本高而不得不大尺度降 价卖房的案例也将减少。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进也表示，此举可以更好地满足改善性住房需求的释放。随着成本下降，房主更有能力和意愿将旧房 出售，进而换购新房。 疏通置换链条 此次增值税政策的调整，与当前的政策与市场背景密不可分。 根据国家统计局的数据，今年前11月，全国新建商品房销售面积、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a significant adjustment to the value-added tax (VAT) policy for personal housing sales, effective January 1, 2026. The VAT rate for personal sales of homes purchased for less than two years will be reduced from 5% to 3%, while sales of homes purchased for two years or more will continue to be exempt from VAT [3][6]. - The reduction in VAT is expected to enhance the activity in the second-hand housing market by lowering transaction costs. For example, on a house valued at 1 million, the total tax burden will decrease from 5.3% to 3.18%, significantly reducing the costs associated with selling homes held for a shorter duration [6]. - The report emphasizes the improved cost-effectiveness of the sector and suggests that the recent policy changes in Beijing and the VAT adjustment are likely to stimulate positive marginal changes in the industry [6]. Summary by Sections - **Policy Changes**: The VAT rate for personal housing sales has been adjusted, which is anticipated to boost market activity [3][6]. - **Market Impact**: The overall tax burden on short-term housing sales has been significantly reduced, which is expected to increase the liquidity in the second-hand housing market [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests that certain quality companies, particularly those with strong inventory structures and product capabilities, should be considered for investment, especially those showing early signs of improvement in their annual reports [6].

Market Analysis - The stock market is experiencing a volatile divergence, with a slow bull market continuing. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12 points, remaining flat, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion, maintaining above 2 trillion for three consecutive days, indicating a further increase in market divergence [2][5][7]. Sector Performance - The technology sector is leading the market, particularly driven by the robotics concept, which saw significant gains. Notable increases include Yushun Robotics up by 3.66% and other related stocks reaching their daily limit. The establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence is expected to catalyze growth in this sector [5][6][7]. - Conversely, the consumer sector is under pressure, with declines in retail, transportation, real estate, and consumer services, attributed to profit-taking after previous gains from stimulus policies [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the slow bull market remains intact, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points and a stable turnover of around 2 trillion providing ample liquidity. The market's financing balance has surpassed 2.5 trillion, and the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to attract foreign investment, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring industry catalysts, particularly in technology and resource sectors, as the market is currently experiencing a combination of technological growth and resource cycle trends [7][9]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is showing a mixed trend, with the long-end of the government bond futures leading gains. The 30-year government bond futures closed at 111.83, up by 0.17%, while the 10-year futures slightly declined. The liquidity expectations for the year-end remain stable, with the interbank market continuing to show a loose funding environment [10][11]. Commodity Market Overview - The commodity index has risen, but precious metals are experiencing increased volatility. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 0.43%, while precious metals like platinum and palladium faced significant declines of 13%. The market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and regulatory tightening in trading policies [9][14]. - Industrial products are rebounding, particularly those related to domestic demand, as the government continues to push for anti-involution policies, which are expected to impact supply and pricing dynamics positively [14]. Recent Trading Hotspots - Key trading hotspots include precious metals, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, AI applications, and consumer sectors, with each sector having specific catalysts and monitoring points for future developments [11][12][13].