Matt Bance指出，以贸易加权计算的美元估值仍处高位，增加下行风险。同时，政策制定更趋反复，加 上央行独立性备受质疑(最近鲍威尔主席提到前所未有的法律压力便突显这点)，令市场对美元在压力期 间的反应更添变数。在此环境下，黄金作为法定货币体系以外的资产更见优势。 智通财经APP获悉，普徕仕多元资产解决方案策略师兼投资组合经理Matt Bance表示，黄金突破历史高 位，反映其长期以来看好黄金作为2026年策略性投资组合分散工具的观点。近期金价表现印证三大关键 因素的影响：地缘政治风险、通胀走向未明，以及对央行独立性的忧虑增加。这进一步反映黄金在资产 组合中的策略性配置价值，而非仅作为短线交易工具。金价突破并非追高信号，而是印证推动金价的核 心因素仍然存在：政策前景欠明朗、金融体系压力及地缘政治风险持续。 从资产配置角度而言，普徕仕看好黄金，但对存续期维持偏低比重。在经济疲弱和实质收益率下跌时 期，黄金与债券有望缓冲股市调整带来的冲击。然而，当实质收益率上升时，黄金较债券更具抗跌力。 此趋势反映各国央行为分散外汇储备而持续增持黄金的需求稳固，较少受价格波动影响，令金价走势逐 步摆脱与实质息率的传统逆向关系。 ...

Ales Koutny曾是押注长期日本国债的外国投资者之一，预期日本央行进一步加息将压平收益率曲线， 并推动对长期债券的需求上升。尽管在高市早苗去年10月上台后、日本国债收益率持续攀升的背景下， 仍有不少投资者继续买入，但近期日本国债收益率的再度跳升以及波动率的上行，正在考验投资者的风 险承受能力。 智通财经获悉，此前一直是日本政府债券最坚定多头之一的Vanguard Asset Management Ltd.，在今年 年初暂停了对日本长期国债的持续买入。在日本首相高市早苗决定提前解散众议院、主张大幅减税从而 引发日本债市剧烈震荡之前，这家资产管理公司就已退出了相关押注。Vanguard主动型基金国际利率主 管Ales Koutny表示："这对长期日本国债来说堪称一场完美风暴。一个国家的无资金支持财政支出是有 限度的。" 当然，并非所有基金经理都被近期的市场动荡吓退。安联全球投资(Allianz Global Investors)高级投资组 合经理Ranjiv Mann周二表示，他正在"积极讨论日本国债中的潜在机会"。上周，太平洋投资管理公司 (PIMCO)的Andrew Balls也认为，市场波动中存在机会 ...

智通财经APP获悉，此前一直是日本政府债券最坚定多头之一的Vanguard Asset Management Ltd.，在 今年年初暂停了对日本长期国债的持续买入。在日本首相高市早苗决定提前解散众议院、主张大幅减税 从而引发日本债市剧烈震荡之前，这家资产管理公司就已退出了相关押注。Vanguard主动型基金国际利 率主管Ales Koutny表示："这对长期日本国债来说堪称一场完美风暴。一个国家的无资金支持财政支出 是有限度的。" Ales Koutny曾是押注长期日本国债的外国投资者之一，预期日本央行进一步加息将压平收益率曲线， 并推动对长期债券的需求上升。尽管在高市早苗去年10月上台后、日本国债收益率持续攀升的背景下， 仍有不少投资者继续买入，但近期日本国债收益率的再度跳升以及波动率的上行，正在考验投资者的风 险承受能力。 Ales Koutny指出，周二20年期日本国债拍卖需求疲弱，再加上一份报告显示日本寿险公司正在抛售长 期债券，以及围绕进一步财政支出的各种"噪音"，共同推动30年期国债收益率大幅上行。 真正令投资者感到不安的是，高市早苗承诺将暂时下调食品消费税，以巩固其在众议院的微弱多数席 位。这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland have led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, driving up the prices of gold and silver to new highs [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Events and Market Reactions - The situation in Greenland has escalated, with U.S. President Trump asserting his intention to control the territory, which has raised concerns among European investors [1]. - European institutions, including Denmark's Akademiker Pension, are beginning to sell off U.S. Treasury bonds, reflecting a reassessment of their safe-haven status [1]. - The Polish central bank's decision to purchase 150 tons of gold is seen as a significant factor supporting gold prices amid rising geopolitical tensions [2]. Group 2: Price Movements and Predictions - Gold prices are expected to surpass $5,000 per ounce due to new geopolitical uncertainties and concerns regarding U.S. monetary policy [4]. - Silver prices are projected to reach $100 per ounce, although a potential correction may occur as physical shortages improve [4]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased significantly, indicating a strong upward trend in silver prices, which is also contributing to gold's rise [3]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Analysts from various institutions highlight that the ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies are primary drivers of the current gold price surge [4]. - The influx of central bank purchases and ETF investments has further propelled gold prices to unprecedented levels [4].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 近日，摩根资产管理举办新年投资策略会，就2026年全球及中国市场的宏观环境、大类资产配置以及A 股投资机遇展开系统分析。 摩根资产管理中国资深环球市场策略师蒋先威表示，展望2026年，全球经济增速或将放缓，但随着利率 逐步下行，主要成熟市场货币政策收紧节奏有望趋缓，低利率环境仍将对经济形成支撑。对中国而言， 外部不确定性减弱、政策环境保持友好，叠加企业盈利周期触底回升以及"反内卷"政策对无序扩张的约 束，工业企业利润修复进程有望加快。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：常福强 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在资产配置层面，蒋先威指出，企业盈利改善有望支撑全球权益市场表现，但在高估值与地缘政治不确 定性并存的背景下，投资者需合理降低回报预期，并通过多元化配置分散风险。具体来看，美股科技板 块或持续受益于人工智能发展，市场风格有望向周期与价值扩散；欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing a significant crisis, characterized by a historic surge in long-term bond yields, leading to a loss of confidence in Japan's fiscal discipline and prompting concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is witnessing a "collapse" with traders describing a scenario where "everyone is selling at all maturities simultaneously," resulting in a daily increase of over 25 basis points in 30-year and 40-year yields, with the latter briefly surpassing 4% [3][5]. - Analysts indicate that the current turmoil is not merely a reaction to external shocks but rather a manifestation of a long-standing structural issue of "lack of natural demand" in the Japanese bond market [3][10]. - The recent volatility has been exacerbated by political uncertainties, particularly Prime Minister Kishi's campaign promise to lower the food consumption tax without a clear funding source [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Japan faces a dilemma: either significantly cut spending, which is politically unpalatable, or have the central bank intervene, likely through unlimited bond purchases, which could have adverse effects on the yen [5][7]. - The potential for the Bank of Japan to return to yield curve control (YCC) is seen as a "logical endgame," but it poses risks to the currency, especially if aggressive interventions lead to a depreciation of the yen beyond the critical 160 level [5][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The market's reaction to the finance minister's calls for calm has been limited, as investors are increasingly unwilling to buy long-term Japanese bonds unconditionally, reflecting a broader loss of confidence in fiscal policy [10][11]. - Concerns are growing that Japan may face a situation similar to the "Truss moment" in the UK, where fiscal expansion could lead to a crisis of credibility in policy [10][11]. - The lack of natural demand for ultra-long Japanese bonds raises fears that without official intervention, selling pressure may not subside on its own, necessitating some form of policy "circuit breaker" [13].

达利欧担心，如果互信受损，持有大量美元和美国国债的国家，可能不再愿意继续为美国的财政赤字提 供融资。与此同时，美国仍在持续大量发债，只要任何一方信心动摇，就会形成危险局面。 "我们都知道，美元的持有者，以及需要不断发行美元和债务的美国，其实彼此都在担心对方。如果其 他国家持有大量美元资产，却彼此缺乏信任，而我们又在大量生产美元，这就会成为一个重大问题。" 美国桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）最新警告称，在不安情绪和经济紧张加剧的背景下，外国 政府和投资者正在重新评估对美国资产的配置意愿。 达利欧在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛年会期间接受采访时称，随着美国总统特朗普采取更具进攻性的政治 路线，全球金融冲突可能进入一个新的阶段。 "贸易逆差和贸易战的另一面是资本和资本战争。如果你观察这些冲突，就无法忽视资本战争的可能 性。换句话说，人们对购买美国债务等资产的意愿，可能不再像以前那么强烈。" "当发生国际地缘政治冲突时，即便是盟友，也不愿意背负彼此的债务，而更倾向于转向'硬通货'。这 是合乎逻辑的，也是反复验证过的事实，在世界历史上屡见不鲜。" 达利欧再次强调分散投资的重要性，认为投资者不应过度依赖单一资产 ...

Group 1 - The financial storm brewing in the U.S. stock market is driven by a short-selling wave, rising bond yields, and increasing market risk aversion, indicating challenges to market stability [1][22][30] - The crisis began with the sudden decline of AI concept stocks, particularly AppLovin, which faced allegations of operational data issues and potential illegal funding, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [3][5][9] - The AI sector, previously viewed as a transformative force, is now under scrutiny as investors question its monetization potential, especially for companies relying on advertising revenue [5][8][30] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields have been rising, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.5%, reflecting growing market concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. [11][13] - The traditional view of U.S. Treasuries as safe assets is being challenged, as recent trends show simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [13][15] - The rising interest payments on U.S. debt are straining the federal budget, leading to concerns about the sustainability of the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [15][22] Group 3 - There is a notable divergence between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve regarding economic stimulus measures, complicating the response to market pressures [17][19] - The lack of a coordinated rescue plan, unlike during the 2008 financial crisis, has led to increased market anxiety, as both the government and the Fed operate independently [21][30] - BlackRock's CEO has warned that the current debt structure poses a significant threat to the economy, emphasizing the need for fundamental adjustments to avoid long-term stagnation [22][24][26] Group 4 - The current financial crisis reflects a profound adjustment in the U.S. financial structure, as reliance on capital market growth is being questioned amid rising debt and deficits [28][30] - Investors are reassessing risks and reallocating assets, indicating a broader "repricing" of the financial system rather than a temporary disruption [31][33] - The market's shift from viewing tech growth prospects to questioning the safety of U.S. Treasuries signifies a critical turning point in investor confidence and economic outlook [31][33]

伯里的目光聚焦在英伟达的财务报表上。 他特别指出，英伟达高达334亿美元的应收账款和198亿美元的库存，是一个危险的信号。 他认为，这暗示着下游 需求可能被高估，存在"渠道填充"的现象。 部分AI芯片可能积压在分销商或客户的仓库里，而非真正被市场消化。 在伯里公开他的巨额空头押注后不到一个月，另一件震动华尔街的事件发生了。 2026年1月20日，国际知名做空机构Capitalwatch发布了一份针对纳斯达克 上市公司AppLovin Corporation的做空报告。 这份长达67页的报告指控，这家专注于AI广告解决方案的明星公司，其股东结构涉嫌系统性的合规风险和重大 金融风险。 报告指出，主要股东Hao Tang及其背后的资本网络，涉嫌将来自东南亚的非法资金注入美国资本市场。 更核心的指控是，AppLovin的经营数据是通过造假 得来的，并且涉嫌从事洗钱业务。 这家公司的股价曾在AI热潮中，从2023年的最低点9.41美元，飙升至745美元，涨幅超过80倍。 在Capitalwatch预告报告 发布后的三天里，AppLovin的股价累计下跌了15%。 做空报告的发布，在华尔街引发了一轮关于AI商业模式可持续 ...

Market Overview - On January 20, the US market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones index falling by 1.36%, the S&P 500 by 1.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.78% [1] - Major tech stocks also saw declines, with Nvidia and Tesla dropping over 3%, while Google A, Amazon, and Meta fell over 2%, and Apple and Microsoft decreased by over 1% [1] Bond Market - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond rose by more than 8 basis points to 4.916%, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached a high of 4.309%, marking the highest levels since early September of the previous year [3] - Rising yields indicate a decline in bond prices, reflecting investor sentiment [3] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar index reported a decline of 0.55%, standing at 98.5055 [5] - Bitcoin fell below $90,000, decreasing by 2.84%, while spot gold reached a new historical high, surpassing $4,750, with a 1.57% increase to $4,742.682 per ounce [9] - Spot silver rose by 0.58%, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [9] European Market Impact - Major European stock indices also experienced declines, with the UK FTSE 100, France's CAC40, Germany's DAX, and Italy's MIB all dropping over 1% [7] Geopolitical Factors - Analysts noted that recent threats from the US to impose tariffs on several European countries have created significant uncertainty, prompting investors to sell off dollar assets in favor of safe-haven assets [11] - The EU is considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods in response, which could further strain US-EU relations [11] - High-profile investors, including Goldman Sachs and Ray Dalio, expressed concerns that US policies could lead to a "capital war," diminishing confidence in US assets and increasing interest in gold as a hedge [11] Central Bank Actions - The Polish central bank approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, aiming to increase its reserves to 700 tons, positioning Poland among the top 10 countries globally in gold reserves [12] - The Danish pension fund "AkademikerPension" plans to sell all its US Treasury holdings due to concerns over credit risk associated with US policies [12][13] Global Bond Market Trends - The US Treasury's "safe-haven" status is being questioned amid rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, leading to concerns about the reliability of the largest bond market during risk-off sentiment [14] - Japan's bond market also faced significant sell-offs, with the 30-year bond yield rising over 30 basis points to 3.915%, marking a historic high [14][17] Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized by rising yields, declining stock prices, and increased interest in gold and other safe-haven assets, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over fiscal sustainability [18]