证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 11 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 推新大年，健康引领 今日概览 【电子】影石创新（688775.SH）-影像设备龙头，创新引领发展—— 20250610 【汽车&海外】雅迪控股（01585.HK）-政策驱动景气度上行，龙头盈利 修复可期——20250610 ◼ 研究视点 【计算机】海光曙光复牌，国产算力生态开始整合重估——20250610 作者 | 分析师 | 丁逸朦 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680521120002 | | | | | 邮箱：dingyimeng@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 医药生物 | 9.7% | 7.4% | 10.8% | | 纺织服饰 | 4.7% | 5.1% | 12.4% | | 农林牧渔 | 4.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% | | 银行 | 4.3% | 10.7% | 27.7% | | 美容护理 | 4.3% | 13.1% | 12.3% | ...

Group 1 - Turkey has launched an antitrust investigation into Coca-Cola [1] - The investigation is part of a broader effort to ensure fair competition in the beverage market [1] - This move may impact Coca-Cola's operations and market strategy in Turkey [1] Group 2 - The Turkish government is focusing on monopolistic practices within the beverage industry [1] - Coca-Cola's market share in Turkey has raised concerns among regulators [1] - The outcome of the investigation could lead to regulatory changes affecting the entire industry [1]

Group 1: Company News - Uber and UK startup Wayve announced plans to conduct autonomous vehicle testing in London [2] - Morgan Stanley released a report naming Coca-Cola as a top pick, reiterating an "overweight" rating with a target price of $81 [2] - Honda is reportedly investing several billion yen in Japanese advanced chip manufacturer Rapidus [2] - Parvus Asset Management is reportedly increasing its stake in Novo Nordisk [2] - NVIDIA and HPE announced a collaboration with the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre to build a new supercomputer using NVIDIA's next-generation chips [2] - Microsoft-backed AI lab Mistral is set to launch its first inference model [2] - IBM is reportedly developing a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer [2] - Tencent Music plans to acquire Himalaya for $1.26 billion [2] - Toyota and Daimler Trucks are set to complete the merger of their truck divisions by April 2026 [2] - AT&T plans to reaffirm its 2025 financial guidance along with a stock buyback plan of at least $3 billion [2] - Blackstone Group plans to invest $500 billion in Europe over the next decade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The popularity of "Chinese health drinks" such as coix seed water, dried tangerine peel water, and goji berry red date water is rising, especially during summer, but their health benefits and differences from traditional herbal teas need careful consideration [1][6]. Group 1: Health Benefits and Limitations - Some experts believe that commercially bottled Chinese health drinks can have certain health benefits if produced according to standards and with proper ingredient combinations, but the effective ingredient content is often low and cannot replace dietary therapy or medical treatment [1][4]. - For example, bottled coix seed water typically contains less coix seed than the dosage recommended by the Chinese Pharmacopoeia, and the effective ingredient content varies by product due to factors like raw material quality and processing methods [1][4]. Group 2: Suitability for Different Body Types - The suitability of these drinks varies by individual body types; for instance, red bean coix seed water is suitable for those with excess dampness, while those with cold spleen and stomach conditions, pregnant women, and women during menstruation should be cautious [3][5]. - Traditional herbal teas can be tailored to individual needs, with ingredients based on specific health conditions, making them potentially more effective than standard bottled drinks [4][5]. Group 3: Consumption Guidelines - Experts advise against excessive consumption of these drinks, as it may burden the heart and kidneys, particularly for individuals with heart or kidney issues [3][8]. - It is essential to approach both bottled health drinks and herbal teas with a scientific mindset, as some products may exaggerate their health claims, and improper consumption could lead to health risks [6][8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Use - Individuals should consider their health conditions and consult healthcare professionals when selecting herbal teas, especially those with existing health issues or special conditions like pregnancy [5][8]. - A balanced diet, regular exercise, adequate sleep, and a positive mindset are emphasized as more critical for health than relying solely on "Chinese health drinks" [8].

Core Viewpoint - Junyao Health, known as the "first stock of lactic acid bacteria drinks," received a warning letter for failing to timely disclose its performance loss announcement, marking its first loss since going public in 2020 [2][5][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Junyao Health reported revenue of 1.458 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.77%, and a net profit loss of 29.12 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 150.57% [7][10]. - The loss was primarily attributed to impairment provisions for goodwill (36.43 million yuan), inventory write-downs (12.76 million yuan), and credit impairment losses (36.60 million yuan) [8]. Stock Market Reaction - Despite the poor financial performance, Junyao Health's stock price surged, closing at 12.05 yuan per share on the first trading day after receiving the warning letter, marking a 10.05% increase and a new high for the year [2][13]. - Analysts suggest that the regulatory penalty has removed uncertainty, contributing to the stock's recovery, although there may be emotional or artificial factors influencing the price movements [6][13]. Executive Actions - During the stock price surge, several executives, including directors and supervisors, engaged in concentrated share sell-offs, totaling 383,400 shares and approximately 3.5373 million yuan in cash [4][15]. - The shareholding structure shows significant pledging, with the largest shareholder, Junyao Group, pledging about 151 million shares, accounting for 76.69% of its holdings and 25.11% of the total share capital [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising importance of the bottled water and beverage market, particularly in the context of summer sales, highlighting how traditional retail stores are adapting to consumer preferences and market trends [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The summer season marks a shift in consumer demand from alcoholic beverages to bottled water, which is seen as a high-frequency demand product with stable pricing and profit margins [3][12]. - Retailers like "Lü Jie" are increasingly prioritizing water products on their shelves, reflecting a broader trend in the beverage industry where water and functional drinks are taking center stage [5][8]. - The competition among beverage brands for shelf space is intensifying, with companies offering incentives to retailers to promote their products [8][11]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more discerning, showing a preference for higher quality water and beverages, which has led to the emergence of new product categories such as sugar-free tea drinks [18][19]. - The shift in consumer preferences is evident as they move from price-sensitive choices to prioritizing product quality, particularly in the bottled water segment [19][22]. - The article notes that the demand for sugar-free and health-oriented beverages is on the rise, indicating a significant change in consumer attitudes towards health and wellness [22][31]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The beverage industry is experiencing a transformation towards health-conscious products, with a notable increase in the popularity of sugar-free drinks and functional beverages [30][31]. - The article draws parallels between the Chinese beverage market and Japan's historical market evolution, suggesting that China is at the beginning of a health-oriented transformation [27][31]. - The future of the beverage market is expected to focus on functional, sugar-free products, and environmentally friendly packaging, with brands needing to differentiate themselves to succeed [34][37].

Core Viewpoint - Wahaha is facing significant internal turmoil and allegations of profit transfer to external entities controlled by its executives, leading to concerns about its operational integrity and governance structure [1][3][4]. Group 1: Company Operations and Governance - Allegations have emerged that Wahaha's profits have been shifted to external companies controlled by its executives, rendering Wahaha nearly an "empty shell" [1][3]. - The company has reportedly shut down factories and transferred many operations to Hongsheng Group, raising concerns about the rights of state-owned shareholders [3][4]. - Since the takeover by Zong Fuli, there have been multiple controversies, including employee rights violations and labor disputes with subcontractors [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Despite the controversies, Wahaha is projected to achieve revenues exceeding 70 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 36.7% compared to 2023 [3][4]. - The asset proportion of Wahaha Group within the entire Wahaha system is only 15.67% as of the end of 2022, indicating a diminished role of state-owned assets in actual operations [6]. Group 3: Shareholding Structure and Disputes - Wahaha transitioned from 100% state-owned to a mixed ownership structure in 1999, with state ownership at 46%, Zong Qinghou's family holding 29.4%, and employee shareholding at 24.6% [4][6]. - There are ongoing disputes regarding the low-priced buyback of employee shares, with many employees claiming their rights have been infringed [7][10]. - The ownership and legal status of the Wahaha trademark remain contentious, with failed attempts to transfer the brand to Hongsheng Group [9][10]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Challenges - Zong Fuli has expressed intentions to pursue an IPO for Wahaha, which would require resolving complex shareholding and trademark issues [12][20]. - The company faces challenges in meeting the A-share listing requirements, particularly regarding the number of shareholders exceeding 200 due to the extensive employee shareholding [20][22]. - The need for a clear governance structure and resolution of historical issues is critical for Wahaha's future success and brand value preservation [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - Wahaha is facing significant internal turmoil and controversies regarding its management and ownership structure, particularly after the passing of its founder, Zong Qinghou. The company is undergoing a transformation under Zong Fuli, but this has led to disputes over employee rights and profit distribution, raising questions about the company's governance and future direction [2][4][16]. Group 1: Company Operations and Financial Performance - Wahaha's revenue is projected to exceed 70 billion in 2024, representing a growth of approximately 36.7% compared to 2023 [4]. - The company has been closing factories and frequently outsourcing production, with many operations reportedly transferred to Hongsheng Group, leading to concerns about the company's core business integrity [4][7]. - As of the end of 2022, Wahaha Group's assets accounted for only 15.67% of the total assets of the Wahaha system, indicating a significant shift in asset control [8]. Group 2: Ownership Structure and Governance Issues - Following its restructuring in 1999, Wahaha transitioned from 100% state-owned to a mixed-ownership model, with state ownership at 46%, Zong Qinghou's family holding 29.4%, and employee stock ownership at 24.6% [5][10]. - There are allegations that profits have been shifted to external companies controlled by Wahaha executives, leading to claims that Wahaha has become an "empty shell" [2][4]. - The employee stock ownership plan has led to disputes, with employees claiming their shares were sold at undervalued prices, raising legal and ethical concerns [11][27]. Group 3: Brand and Trademark Controversies - The ownership of the Wahaha brand has been contentious, with attempts to transfer the trademark to Hongsheng Group failing, which has implications for the company's identity and market position [12][14]. - Historical disputes over trademark rights, such as the "Dawa dispute" with Danone, have left lingering issues regarding brand ownership that complicate Wahaha's current operations [20][22]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Strategic Direction - Zong Fuli's push for reform and potential IPO is seen as a way to address the complex ownership and trademark issues, but the company must first resolve its governance challenges [18][27]. - The need for a clear governance structure is emphasized, as the current situation could hinder Wahaha's ability to unify its operations and pursue growth effectively [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [5][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [11][1]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes in the liquor sector: 1) Leading companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing positive feedback from digital initiatives and are undervalued; 3) Brands like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that still have market share growth potential [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches indicating a strategic shift [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and enhancing brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and market health for liquor companies moving forward [12]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, with potential for good performance due to low comparative bases from the previous year [14]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies driving efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's forecasted EPS is 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for high-end liquor continues to face pressure during the off-season, while beer and beverages are entering a demand peak [2][11]. - The liquor index has decreased by 0.9%, indicating ongoing short-term fundamental pressures [13]. - The report suggests three investment themes: 1) Leading liquor companies with proven risk resilience such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; 2) Luzhou Laojiao, which is showing signs of digital transformation and valuation recovery; 3) Companies like Jinsiyuan and Yingjia Gongjiu that have potential for market share growth [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have slightly declined, with Kweichow Moutai's stock buyback and international product launches being significant developments [2][11]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to focus on expanding its market presence and improving brand image [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer engagement and channel management for liquor companies [2][11]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer industry is expected to enter a peak sales phase, benefiting from a low base from the previous year [14][15]. - The snack food sector is experiencing a trend of differentiation, with leading companies enhancing efficiency across the supply chain [15]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with new product launches and channel breakthroughs, such as Wei Long and Yihai International [15]. 3. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Kweichow Moutai is projected to have an EPS of 75.28 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.0 [4]. - Wuliangye is expected to have an EPS of 8.44 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 14.8 [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's EPS is forecasted at 9.64 for 2025, with a PE ratio of 12.1 [4]. 4. Market Trends - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.65% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.78 percentage points [20]. - The report indicates that the beverage sector is entering a peak season, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [19].