（本报首尔8月13日电） 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年08月14日 17 版） 农产品价格上涨明显加重了韩国民众的生活负担。韩国统计厅8月11日发布的7月物价数据显示，尽管整 体消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅维持在2.1%的水平，但食品及非酒精饮料价格指数同比上涨3.5%。 首尔市民卢泳和对记者表示，虽然公布的统计数据显示整体物价上涨并不多，但民众日常生活经常购买 的农产品确实贵了，感觉生活开销增加了不少。"现在我们也有意识减少外出就餐和购买高价水果，把 钱用在其他更需要的地方。"卢泳和说。 韩国农村经济研究院预计，受7月高温及暴雨等极端天气影响，韩国农产品总体供应量有所下降，预计8 月农产品价格还可能继续上涨。为此，韩国企划财政部近日发布了一系列稳定物价措施，包括将政府储 备白菜每日供应量较7月扩大2倍，增加到200至300吨；对西瓜等受极端天气影响较大的果蔬实施价格优 惠补贴；加快鸡肉进口审批流程，在7月底完成4000吨进口量的基础上，8月中旬再进一步增加进口量； 从7月28日到8月21日，与44家线上和线下物流企业合作，对水产品实施最多50%的打折优惠活动等。 韩国汉城大学经济学教授金相奉认为，与民 ...

巴西动物蛋白协会（ABPA）8月11日公布的数据显示，受美国市场需求推动，2025年7月巴西鸡蛋出口 （包括鲜蛋和加工蛋）总量达5259吨，同比增长304.7%；出口额1180.8万美元，同比增长340.9%。然 而，美国总统特朗普宣布的对包括多类巴西食品在内的进口商品加征50%关税的措施已于8月6日生效， 这一举措或将冲击巴西鸡蛋、牛肉、咖啡等主要对美出口农产品的未来表现。（新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds, highlighting the significant 75.8% deposit requirement and its potential impact on the domestic canola industry and market dynamics [4][5][18]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Investigation - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported canola seeds from Canada, with a preliminary ruling set to be released by August 12, 2025 [4]. - The deposit requirement of 75.8% for Canadian companies is a temporary measure aimed at mitigating the damage caused by dumping until a final ruling is made [5][18]. - The investigation is expected to last up to 18 months, with the final decision anticipated within the next 7 months [18]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Canola Industry - The anti-dumping measures aim to restore the net profit and competitiveness of the domestic canola industry, as current prices for domestic canola have decreased from 6100 CNY/ton to 5700 CNY/ton [8]. - The domestic canola futures market is expected to see increased activity, with a recommendation to buy low on domestic canola futures contracts [8]. - The high deposit rate may lead to a reduction in import willingness from domestic industries, affecting overall supply and pricing dynamics [5][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply Chain - The investigation has already led to a tightening of canola imports, with some crushing enterprises halting canola meal sales [10]. - The supply of canola meal is particularly concerning, as imported canola meal faces a 100% tariff, limiting its entry into the domestic market [10]. - The article suggests that alternative sources for canola oil and meal may include imports from Dubai and Russia, but the supply of canola meal remains a challenge [14][19]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The article draws parallels with the 2019 blackleg disease incident, which also affected Canadian canola exports to China, indicating that trade normalization may depend on the resolution of tariff disputes [12]. - Future supply paths for canola meal may include the restoration of Australian canola imports and adjustments to the delivery standards for Indian and Russian canola meal [16]. - The overall market for canola oil is expected to remain stable, with potential price increases as demand continues to grow [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The August USDA report is bullish, as it lowers the ending stocks and inventory - to - use ratios of global and US soybeans for the 2025/26 season. The tightening of the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is the core bullish factor. This not only provides current bullish support but also has potential bullish implications, boosting US soybean prices and, through cost transmission, helping domestic soybean meal futures prices rise. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [1][44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global and US Soybean Supply - Demand Adjustments**: In 2025/26, global soybean production is estimated at 426.39 million tons, a 1.29 - million - ton decrease from July, mainly due to a 1.16 - million - ton reduction in US production. Consumption is estimated at 425.1 million tons, a 70,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 187.44 million tons, a 190,000 - ton decrease. Ending stocks are estimated at 124.9 million tons, a 1.17 - million - ton decrease. In 2024/25, global soybean production is estimated at 423.97 million tons, a 1.97 - million - ton increase from July. Consumption is estimated at 410.69 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton increase. Exports are estimated at 181.75 million tons, a 1.02 - million - ton increase [4][5][7]. - **Global Soybean Meal Supply - Demand Adjustments**: In 2025/26, global soybean meal production is estimated at 288.58 million tons, unchanged from July. Consumption is estimated at 284.35 million tons, a 10,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 82.04 million tons, an 80,000 - ton increase. Ending stocks are estimated at 18.07 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease, and the inventory - to - use ratio decreases slightly [26]. 3.2 US Soybean Exports - **Export Outlook Improvement**: In mid - to - late July 2025, the US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea. Sino - US economic and trade talks are ongoing, improving the outlook for US soybean exports [30]. - **Export Progress in Different Seasons**: For the 2024/25 season, as of the week ending July 31, 2025, cumulative US soybean export sales were about 51.49 million tons, with a sales progress of about 100.9%. The USDA has raised the export estimate three times. For the 2025/26 season, as of the same week, cumulative export sales were about 3.58 million tons, with a sales progress of about 7.7%, lagging behind the same period last year. Chinese buyers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans for the 2025/26 season [32][34]. 3.3 US Soybean Weather The August USDA report significantly raises the US soybean yield estimate, but there is still uncertainty in the weather. The current yield estimate is close to the "perfect weather" scenario, with limited upside but significant downside potential. Recent weather forecasts show that there are some flaws in the weather in the US soybean - growing areas, which may lead to a decrease in yield [38][39]. 3.4 Summary The August USDA report is bullish, tightening the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet. The "low - area, high - yield" pattern of new - crop US soybeans has both current and potential bullish implications. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [44].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Fengjie County Market Supervision Administration highlights the results of a recent food safety inspection, indicating that out of 178 food samples tested, 173 were compliant while 5 were found to be non-compliant, prompting regulatory actions to address the issues [2]. Summary by Category Inspection Results - A total of 178 food samples were collected from five categories: edible oils and fats, condiments, candy products, grain processing products, and edible agricultural products [2]. - Among these, 173 samples passed the inspection, resulting in a compliance rate of approximately 97.2% [2]. Non-compliance Actions - The 5 non-compliant samples triggered legal actions in accordance with the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China, including risk control measures, product recalls, and removal from shelves [2]. - The specific non-compliance issues included pesticide residues exceeding the national safety standards, with instances of chlorpyrifos and lead detected in certain products [2]. Regulatory Compliance - The local market supervision department is actively engaged in tracing the distribution of the non-compliant products and ensuring corrective actions are implemented [2].

农业农村部：预计在秋粮上市前，国产大豆价格将保持基本稳定。国际市场方面，美国大豆主产区作物 生长态势良好，丰产预期持续升温；巴西大豆出口强劲，全球大豆供应呈宽松格局。 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）周二公布数据显示，巴西8月大豆出口量预计触及880万吨，之前一 周预估为815万吨。 机构观点：美豆丰产预期强化 8月6日，国内期市油脂油料板块涨幅居前。其中，豆二期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿，主力合约报 3830.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.76%。 【宏观消息速递】 芝商所官网数据显示，截至8月8日当周，CBOT大豆可交割库存为505.9万蒲式耳，较此前一周的686.9 万蒲式耳减少26.35%，较上年同期的293.3万蒲式耳增加72.49%。 据美国农业部8月供需报告显示，8月美国2025/2026年度大豆产量预期为42.92亿蒲式耳，市场预期为 43.65亿蒲式耳。8月美国2025/2026年度大豆期末库存预期为2.9亿蒲式耳，市场预期为3.49亿蒲式耳。8 月美国2025/2026年度大豆单产预期为53.6蒲式耳/英亩，市场预期为52.9蒲式耳/英亩。 瑞达期货（002961）研报：美国中西部及时雨利好 ...

| | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | | 国贸商品指数 E C | 贸商品指数日报 | | | 国贸期货研究院 从业资格号: F3014717 | | | 郑建著 2025/08/13 Z0013223 宏观金融中心 投资咨询号: | | | 周二（8月12日），国内商品期市收盘多数上涨,黑色系普遍上涨,焦煤上涨6.97%,铁矿石上涨 | | | 2.36%;新能源材料多数上涨,碳酸锂上涨2.00%;基本金属多数上涨,氧化铝上涨4.16%;油脂油料 多数上涨,棕榈油上涨3.13%;化工品多数上涨,橡胶上涨0.89%;能源品涨跌互现,低硫燃料油上涨 | | | 0.95%,原油上涨0.55%;贵金属普遍下跌,沪银下跌0.62%,沪金下跌1.12%;航运期货表现颁软,集 | | | 运指数(欧线)下跌1.48%。 | | | 热评:周二国内商品多数上涨,其中,工业品多数上涨、农产品涨跌互现。具体来看: | | | 1) 黑色系多数上涨。上周末唐山限产消息落地,叠加双焦期价延续上行趋势,螺纹热卷期价反弹1% | | | 左右,主力成交量环比收缩。上周五 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The USDA August supply - demand report shows adjustments in 2025/26 soybean data for the US, Brazil, Argentina, and globally, with changes in areas, yields, production, exports, and inventories [1]. - Brazilian soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts for August have increased, and Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 have significantly increased compared to the same period last month [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts a 3% growth in Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production, but the 2024/25 export volume may decline [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian imported rapeseed, and import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin starting from August 14, 2025 [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 US Soybean Information - The sown area is estimated at 80.9 million acres (July estimate: 83.4 million acres), the harvested area at 80.1 million acres (July estimate: 82.5 million acres) [1]. - The yield per acre is estimated at 53.6 bushels (July estimate: 52.5 bushels), and the production at 4.292 billion bushels (July estimate: 4.335 billion bushels) [1]. - Exports are estimated at 1.705 billion bushels (July estimate: 1.745 billion bushels), and the ending stocks at 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels) [1]. 3.2 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil's production is estimated at 175 million tons, and exports at 112 million tons, unchanged from July estimates [1]. - Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons (unchanged from July), and exports at 5.8 million tons (July estimate: 5 million tons) [1]. - China's imports are estimated at 112 million tons, unchanged from July [1]. - Global production is estimated at 426.39 million tons (July estimate: 427.68 million tons), and ending stocks at 124.9 million tons (July estimate: 126.07 million tons) [1]. 3.3 August Export Forecasts for Brazil - The soybean export volume is expected to reach 8.8 million tons (previous week's estimate: 8.15 million tons), and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.27 million tons (previous week's estimate: 1.74 million tons) [1]. 3.4 Malaysian Palm Oil Export Data - From August 1 - 10, 2025, the export volume of palm oil products was 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase compared to the same period last month (205,225 tons) [1]. 3.5 Indonesia's Palm Oil Situation - Affected by reduced demand from major importing countries and the B40 biodiesel blending policy, the 2024/25 export volume may drop to 22.8 million tons [1]. - Kedia Advisory predicts that the 2025/26 production will increase by 3% to 47 million tons due to favorable weather and sufficient fertilizer use [1]. 3.6 Anti - Dumping Ruling on Canadian Rapeseed - China's Ministry of Commerce has initially determined that Canadian imported rapeseed is being dumped, causing material damage to the domestic rapeseed industry [1]. - Starting from August 14, 2025, import operators need to pay a 75.8% margin to Chinese customs [1]. 3.7 Other Information - There are data on oil imports' profit, spot prices, protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil - oilseed futures price spreads, but specific numerical summaries are not provided here due to the large amount of data [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, in the short term, with continuous reserve auctions and upcoming new - season corn, the market is in a state of slight decline but with limited downside space. In the long - term, potential import increases and new - season supply increments may impact prices [3]. - For starch, it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term and remains bearish in the long term due to high inventory and expected lower raw material costs [3]. - For sugar, the international market has potential for a rebound, while the domestic market faces pressure from upcoming large - scale imports [6]. - For cotton, it has entered a volatile phase, and its downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks, with focus on demand changes [7]. - For eggs, prices may rise again with upcoming festival demands, but high inventory may limit the upside [7]. - For apples, the new - season production is expected to be similar to last year, and the current consumption is in a slow season [10]. - For pigs, the short - term spot market is weakly volatile, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term policy expectations [10]. Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, corn prices in some regions showed minor changes, with a 6 - yuan decrease in the price in潍坊. Starch prices remained stable in some regions, and the base difference decreased by 3 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, reserve auctions and upcoming new - season corn led to a slight weakening of corn prices, but the downside is limited. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory and expected to be weakly volatile. In the long term, potential import increases and lower new - season costs may impact prices [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, sugar prices in some regions decreased, and the base difference decreased by 35. The import profit from Thailand decreased by 125, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 387 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The international sugar market may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production. The domestic market faces pressure from upcoming imports with a price range of 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 85. The import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 6, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 52 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton has entered a volatile phase, and its downside space is limited if there are no major macro - risks. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, egg prices in some regions remained stable, and the base difference decreased by 2 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand resonance in July, then回调. With upcoming festival demands, prices may rise again, but high inventory may limit the upside [7]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year, and the current consumption is in a slow season with low inventory and slow de - stocking [10]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/08/06 - 2025/08/12, pig prices in some regions showed minor changes, and the base difference decreased by 90 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term spot market is weakly volatile, with mid - term supply pressure and long - term policy expectations [10].

受美国农业部下调美豆产量预估值提振，周二CBOT大豆期货市场继续大幅反弹，盘中豆粕和豆油同步 回升。美国农业部在8月供需报告中将美豆播种面积由上月的8250万英亩下调到8010万英亩，同时将美 豆单产由上月的52.5蒲式耳/英亩调高到53.6蒲式耳/英亩。 首创期货表示，国际大豆供求进一步转向宽松的幅度有限，国际大豆价格存在底部支撑效应。 贸易政 策性因素可能是引发内盘波动的主要因素，主要在于对美豆反制关税的持续性和4季度进口大豆贸易流 的走向。我们对下半年豆粕价格看法偏多。 资料显示，豆粕ETF（159985）除了作为单一的投资品种，还在资产组合、抗通胀、展期收益等方面具 备长期投资价值。豆粕与股市关联度低，无论短期豆粕期货价格是否能够延续上涨，都可以少量仓位长 期配置。豆粕也是12种油粕饲料品种中产量最大的品种，具有良好的现货基础。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 目前，A股跟踪大商所豆粕期货价格指数的豆粕ETF（159985），是境内唯一上市农产品ETF，今日盘 中上涨2.52%。数据显示，大商所豆粕期货价格指数近一年、近二年、近三年表现依次为 +2.14%、-11.70%、+18.51%。今日A股养殖板块 ...