Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting outlines the market dynamics and strategic outlook for the wheat industry in China from 2026 to 2032, highlighting significant price trends and projections for the sector [1] Price Trends - As of mid-January 2026, the market price for standard grade three wheat in China is projected to be 2495.4 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.12% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years occurred in mid-January 2023, reaching 3203.6 yuan per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the competitive landscape and investment potential of the sweet corn industry in China from 2026 to 2032, emphasizing the price trends of corn over recent years [1] Price Trends - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the market price of corn (Grade II yellow corn) in mid-January 2026 is projected to be 2243.3 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.35% [1] - Over the past five years, the highest recorded price for corn was in mid-January 2021, reaching 2853.9 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 fluctuates in the range of 2720 - 2780. The US soybeans are oscillating and rising, supported by China's potential soybean purchases and technical buying. The domestic soybean meal rebounds after hitting the bottom, affected by the US soybean trend and the peak - season demand at the end of the year. The news is mixed, and it may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - The soybean A2605 fluctuates in the range of 4340 - 4440. The US soybeans are oscillating and rising, and the domestic soybeans are oscillating in a narrow range. The strong spot price and short - term good demand support the market, and it will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term under the interaction of the implementation of the Sino - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2720 and 2780, and the soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate between 4340 and 4440 [9][11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybeans are oscillating above the thousand - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level in January. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and the soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal remained good in January, supporting the price expectation. The soybean meal maintains an oscillating pattern under the cross - influence of the US soybean trend and the rebound in demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production areas, and affected by the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in January; Brazilian soybeans have started planting, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume Data**: The report provides the trading average price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from January 28 to February 5, as well as the price data of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from January 29 to February 5 [16][18]. - **Inventory Data**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 94.72 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.27% and a year - on - year increase of 70.15%. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 687.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 31.81% [9][11]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [32][33]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal M2605, the main short positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - For soybean A2605, the main long positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Information - The soybean and rapeseed meal spot price spread has narrowed, and the spread of the 2605 contract has declined from a high level [29]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal production in December increased year - on - year [25][50]. - The downstream procurement in China has rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level [27]. - The US soybean weekly export inspection decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans has entered a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year figure has recently decreased [47]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to decline [48]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have continued to decline, and the inventory demand maintains a good expectation [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated and declined following the US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [54]. - The pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [56]. - The pig price has declined slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak [58]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has continued to rise [60]. - The domestic pig - farming profit is slightly profitable [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite declined, and A - shares fell with shrinking trading volume. The market is in a stage of rapid style switching, with short - term volatility likely to continue and mainly presenting structural opportunities. In the medium - to - long - term, it remains positive under policy expectations and fundamental support [2][3] - Precious metals are in a phased adjustment period, with the current adjustment not yet over [4][5] - Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term, affected by factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and the large - scale selling of silver by ETFs [6][7] - Aluminum prices are under pressure to oscillate and adjust due to factors like the easing of geopolitical situations and the accumulation of social inventories [8][9] - Alumina is oscillating as market participants are in a wait - and - see mode [10] - Cast aluminum follows the market to oscillate and adjust due to cost factors and the approaching Spring Festival [11] - Zinc prices continue to be under pressure, affected by factors such as increased market risk aversion and the approaching Spring Festival [12][13] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with a lack of prominent supply - demand contradictions [14] - Tin prices are in an adjustment phase and are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [15] - Steel prices (螺卷) are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [16][17] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with strong supply and weak demand [18] - Coking coal and coke are in a situation of weak supply and demand and are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [19] - Soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as the export situation of soybeans and the approaching Spring Festival [20][21][22] - Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, affected by factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and the supply of rapeseed oil [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment at the beginning of the year shows more signs of weakness. The initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, and the JOLTS job openings in December dropped to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020. The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged in February. Market risk appetite continued to contract, with US stocks falling, precious metals adjusting, and the US dollar index rising. The release of non - farm payroll data is postponed [2] - Domestic: A - shares fell with shrinking trading volume on Thursday. The market is in a stage of rapid style switching, with funds flowing to defensive sectors. ETF fund flows are divided, and margin trading balances continue to decline. The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term and be positive in the medium - to - long - term [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 3.08% to $4,798.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 16.64% to $70.35 per ounce. The decline is due to better - than - expected US employment data, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and the increase in margin requirements by exchanges. The adjustment of precious metals is expected to last for a long time and exceed expectations [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract adjusted downward, and LME copper quickly adjusted to around $12,800. The domestic copper spot market's trading improved, and downstream enterprises entered the restocking cycle. The US employment market deterioration may affect economic growth, and the large - scale selling of silver by ETFs dragged down copper prices. The potential merger of two mining giants is postponed. Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 23,380 yuan per ton, down 2.2%. LME aluminum closed at $3,026 per ton, down 1.08%. Aluminum social inventories are accelerating the process of accumulation, and with the approaching of the Spring Festival, consumption is weak. Aluminum prices are under pressure to oscillate and adjust [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,790 yuan per ton, down 0.78%. The spot price was flat. The supply side is observing the resumption of production of previously reduced - production capacity, and the demand side has sufficient inventory. Market participants are in a wait - and - see mode, and alumina is oscillating [10] 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 21,915 yuan per ton, down 1.92%. The cost of scrap aluminum is affected by policies and price increases, and the market is inactive. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the market is light, and cast aluminum follows the market to oscillate and adjust [11] 3.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated weakly during the day and stabilized at night. LME zinc oscillated horizontally. The spot market's trading was poor, and social inventories increased. The increase in market risk aversion and the approaching of the Spring Festival led to zinc prices continuing to be under pressure, but the potential supply disruption of overseas zinc mines provided some support [12][13] 3.8 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. LME lead oscillated weakly. The spot market's trading sentiment was weak, and social inventories increased. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly following the non - ferrous metal sector [14] 3.9 Tin - The main contract of tin futures continued to decline during the day and oscillated narrowly at night. LME tin oscillated weakly. The decline in market risk appetite and the approaching of the Spring Festival led to a decrease in funds, and the supply - demand support is weak. Tin prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [15] 3.10 Steel (螺卷) - Steel futures oscillated weakly. The spot market's trading volume decreased. The supply of steel decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The apparent demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the hot - rolled coil data changed little. The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. The spot market's trading rhythm slowed down, and the steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end. The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand was weak. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18] 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated and declined. Coking profits recovered, but production was still restricted by environmental protection policies. The supply of upstream coal mines tightened, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [19] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.22%, and rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 0.58%. Brazil's soybean export in February is expected to be 11.42 million tons. The US soybean export sales are at a new low. The drought in Argentina is no longer a concern. The market is in a situation where the supply in the first quarter is expected to improve, and soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [20][21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - Palm oil 05 contract fell 1.35%. The decline in the US employment market and the increase in rapeseed oil supply led to a decline in the oil market. The MPOA expects a 14% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production in January. Palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [23]

研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/06 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/30 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2440 | 19 | 20 323 | 2750 | 2820 | 174 | -98 | | 2026/02/02 2180 | 2280 | 2300 | 2420 | 19 | 10 294 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -78 | | 2026/02/03 2180 | 2270 | 2288 | 2410 | 3 | 10 295 | 2750 | 2820 | 186 | -70 | | 2026/02/04 2180 | 2270 | 2288 | 2410 | 7 | 10 289 | 2750 | 2820 | 185 | -83 | | 2026/0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Heilongjiang Premium" brand is prominently displayed at major international airports in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, aiming to enhance brand influence through high-frequency and multi-dimensional advertising over the next six months [1][6]. Group 1: Brand Promotion Strategy - "Heilongjiang Premium" will utilize multiple advertising formats, including LED and LCD screens, to showcase high-quality agricultural products such as rice, grains, and mushrooms at key areas in the airports [5][6]. - The brand will achieve extensive exposure by placing advertisements in high-traffic areas, including baggage claim and security checkpoints, as well as on over one million Southern Airlines boarding passes [6][8]. Group 2: Agricultural Background - Heilongjiang Province has maintained the highest grain production in China for 16 consecutive years, contributing to one out of every nine bowls of rice consumed nationwide [3]. - The brand focuses on presenting the best, greenest, and safest agricultural products, emphasizing the quality of its offerings sourced from the fertile black soil of the region [5]. Group 3: Market Impact - The strategic placement of "Heilongjiang Premium" in major airports leverages the daily high passenger flow and the presence of high-end business travelers, enhancing brand recognition and reputation [8]. - This initiative is expected to positively impact agricultural brand development and facilitate the connection between production and sales [8].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.2% from the previous week, while the production material market price rose by 0.9% [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw slight increases, with bananas, citrus, and grapes rising by 3.4%, 1.2%, and 1.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices generally increased, with eggs and white-feathered chickens rising by 2.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices continued to rise, with grass carp, crucian carp, and common carp increasing by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.9% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices saw slight increases, with pork priced at 19.13 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.2%, while lamb and beef rose by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with peanut oil increasing by 0.1%, while soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and flour remained stable, and rice decreased by 0.2% [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.69 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, with spinach, cucumber, and eggplant decreasing by 5.0%, 5.0%, and 4.3% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Rubber prices saw a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 3.4% and 2.4% respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced slight increases, with aluminum, zinc, and copper rising by 3.3%, 3.3%, and 2.2% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were predominantly up, with sulfuric acid, polypropylene, and methanol increasing by 2.2%, 1.8%, and 1.1% respectively, while soda ash decreased by 0.3% [2] - Fertilizer prices showed a slight recovery, with urea and compound fertilizers rising by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices slightly increased, with 92-octane gasoline and 95-octane gasoline rising by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively, while 0 diesel remained stable [2] - Coal prices remained stable with slight increases, where thermal coal was priced at 777 yuan per ton, while coking coal and anthracite increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices saw slight declines, with channel steel, high-speed wire rod, and rebar priced at 3535 yuan, 3555 yuan, and 3361 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation opinion released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes enhancing the effectiveness of agricultural support and protection policies to promote comprehensive rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [1] Group 1: Agricultural Support Policies - The opinion highlights the need to coordinate the production, storage, and import of agricultural products to maintain reasonable prices for key agricultural products such as grain [1] - It calls for the establishment of a mechanism to guarantee the income of grain farmers, strengthening support through pricing, subsidies, and insurance [1] - The minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat will be reasonably determined, and policies for land fertility protection subsidies, corn and soybean producer subsidies, and rice subsidies will be implemented stably [1] Group 2: Agricultural Insurance and Financial Support - The opinion promotes the expansion of agricultural insurance products, increasing the coverage of complete cost insurance and planting income insurance for the three major grain crops [1] - It supports the development of insurance for advantageous and characteristic agricultural products at the local level and aims to improve the efficiency of insurance claims [1] - Special loan interest subsidies for grain and oil planting will be piloted, and support for major grain-producing counties will be increased [1] Group 3: Financial Management and Oversight - The management system for rural comprehensive reform transfer payment funds will be adjusted and optimized [1] - The opinion emphasizes the need to consolidate the results of special rectification of prominent issues in the use of rural revitalization funds and to promote regular oversight [1] - It aims to enhance the effectiveness of policy fund utilization [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful international expansion of Lu County's organic walnut oil, marking a significant step for local agricultural products in entering high-end markets [1] - The initiative is part of a broader effort by the provincial market supervision bureau to enhance organic product certification and support small and medium enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Organic Product Certification - Lu County has successfully participated in a provincial initiative that provides free quality certification services to enhance the competitiveness of local agricultural products [1] - Eight local enterprises have become provincial pilot projects, representing 80% of the total pilot projects in the Sanmenxia city [1] - The initiative aims to improve both organic production management and market competitiveness through professional support [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Local Enterprises - A team from Nanjing Guohuan Organic Product Certification Center conducted comprehensive assessments of the eight pilot enterprises, providing tailored support [2] - Following the assistance, the eight enterprises received nine organic product certification certificates, with a total certification fee reduction of over 200,000 yuan [2] - The organic walnut oil from Yuanrong Agriculture achieved a premium rate of 41.6%, attracting interest from large companies [2] Group 3: Overall Growth in Organic Certification - In the province, 29 food and agricultural enterprises have seen an average operating efficiency increase of over 20% due to organic certification [3] - By the end of 2025, Henan province is expected to have issued 535 organic product certification certificates, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [3] - The provincial market supervision bureau aims to cultivate internationally competitive organic agricultural brands through certification services [3]

Core Insights - In January 2026, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by new policies, while also facing challenges from international geopolitical changes and commodity price volatility [1] Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous price index surged to 159.6 points, with a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [2] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [2] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 2.2% and a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - The energy price index declined to 94.6 points, with a month-on-month drop of 3.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [2] Commodity Performance - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases, while 17 (34%) experienced price declines in January compared to December 2025 [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [2] - The commodities with the largest price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [2] Geopolitical and Market Trends - Tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [3] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs in January, but significant declines were observed towards the end of the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [3] - Future projections suggest that gold prices may experience both upward trends and volatility, with ongoing geopolitical risks providing long-term support despite short-term fluctuations [3]