Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. However, it is approaching a seasonal weak period. Currently, the demand decline is not significant, and after the tariff reduction in May, terminal orders have improved, with steel exports remaining stable. The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to oscillate at low levels, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore - This week, the global iron ore shipping volume increased significantly, while the domestic arrival volume decreased. There is still an expectation of increased supply. The molten iron output decreased, and the port clearance volume remained high. The finished product inventory is low, and the demand is resilient. In the future, the terminal demand for finished products will determine the sustainability of high molten iron production. It is expected that iron ore will maintain an oscillating trend [4]. Coke - Last week, coke futures continued to decline. Another round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rounds of cuts. The supply is increasing slightly, the demand may decline, and the inventory in coking plants is starting to accumulate. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on rallies and consider a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke strategy [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures continued to decline. The spot price is in a continuous decline, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is relatively high, the demand may decline, and the inventory in mines is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract on rallies and continue to hold the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [5]. Ferrosilicon - The daily output of ferrosilicon decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. However, the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. The profits of manufacturers in the main production areas are differentiated, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the price will decline [6]. Ferromanganese - Recently, the daily output of ferromanganese has increased slightly. The supply pressure is concentrated in the northern regions. The molten iron output decreased, and the finished product inventory is low with resilient demand. The manganese ore supply is expected to increase, and the price will be under pressure. Ferromanganese is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Summaries by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3190 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased from 3097 yuan/ton to 3078 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu decreased slightly, while the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in most regions increased, except for the rebar profit in South China, which decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.5% to 872.4 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.2% to 1398.5 tons [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehousing costs and spot prices of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehousing cost of PB powder dropped from 805.2 yuan/ton to 797.5 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased from 760 yuan/ton to 753 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5% to 2271.3 tons, and the global shipping volume increased by 10.5% to 3347.8 tons. The molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons, and the port clearance volume increased by 1.0% to 327.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.5% to 13987.83 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 8925.5 tons [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke spot and futures decreased. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained at 1266 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 contract price dropped from 1407 yuan/ton to 1383 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased slightly by 0.2% to 67.3 tons, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.4% to 986.9 tons. The inventory in coking plants increased by 9.5%, while the inventory in steel mills decreased by 0.5% [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal spot and futures decreased. For example, the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained at 1030 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract price dropped from 828 yuan/ton to 802 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 0.34% to 895.8 tons, and the molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [5]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in mines increased by 9.24% to 230.3 tons, and the inventory in coking plants decreased by 2.2% to 865.7 tons [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices decreased. The ferrosilicon 72%FeSi: Inner Mongolia spot price remained unchanged, while the ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 Inner Mongolia spot price increased by 2.2% [6]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some raw materials for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased slightly, and the profit situation varies in different regions [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.9% to 8.9 tons, and the ferromanganese production increased by 1.5% to 16.5 tons. The molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 1.9% to 7.5 tons, and the ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 2.9% to 20.1 tons [6].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Shaanxi Black Cat reported a significant decline in revenue and an increase in losses, marking the largest annual loss since its listing, with a net profit loss of 1.158 billion yuan [1][5]. Company Performance - Shaanxi Black Cat's revenue fell by 21.58% year-on-year, with a net profit loss expanding from 512 million yuan to 1.158 billion yuan [1]. - The company's Q1 2025 report showed a revenue of 2.585 billion yuan, down 37.31% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 261.6 million yuan, a 23.21% decline [1]. - The company's stock price dropped from a peak of 11.04 yuan in 2021 to around 3 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization reduction from over 20 billion yuan to approximately 6 billion yuan [1]. Business Background - Established in 2003, Shaanxi Black Cat primarily engages in coal coking and chemical product production, with key products including coke, methanol, and coal tar [1][3]. - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2014 and was the first private company in Weinan, Shaanxi [1]. Expansion and Challenges - Following a peak in 2021, the company aggressively expanded its coking projects in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, with a significant investment of 4.7 billion yuan in a 2 million-ton coking project in Xinjiang [5]. - The downturn in the coking industry, characterized by falling coke prices and reduced steel production, has severely impacted the company's financial health [5][7]. Financial Struggles - In 2024, the company recorded nearly 3 billion yuan in asset impairments, significantly affecting its net profit [5]. - The coke business saw a revenue decline of over 20%, with a negative gross margin of 17.12% [5][6]. - Despite a slight decrease in coke sales volume, the revenue drop indicates a substantial decline in product prices [6]. Product Diversification - The sales of by-products such as crude benzene and LNG have become a highlight, generating approximately 3.506 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 24.04% of total revenue [6]. - However, reliance on by-products for profitability is risky due to price volatility and unstable demand, failing to offset the decline in the main coke business [6]. Industry Context - The coking industry has entered a downturn since 2023, with significant impacts on profitability due to reduced steel demand and pricing pressures [7]. - The average price of coke has dropped over 30% from its peak in 2021, with capacity utilization rates remaining low [7]. - Future recovery in the coking industry is uncertain, with expectations of continued pressure on prices and profitability [7].

1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry is characterized by high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and a gradual recovery in demand expectations. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at low levels, with attention on whether the previous lows can provide support. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to experience short - term oscillations. Although the current high molten iron production has led to a slight reduction in inventory, the supply pressure is expected to increase from May to June due to the shipping volume rush of overseas mines. Meanwhile, the improvement of macro - economic expectations may bring about sentiment repair [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. With the decline in molten iron production and the cautious attitude of the market towards the future, the downstream replenishment demand is difficult to increase significantly. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on rallies and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market remains weak. The supply is relatively abundant, while the demand may face pressure as the peak season for steel passes. It is advisable to short the coking coal 2509 contract on rallies and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure has been alleviated, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively high level. The demand lacks strong support, and attention should be paid to changes in exports [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese market maintains production cuts. The supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the northern region. The market is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products remained stable, with only slight increases in some futures contracts. For example, the 05 contract of rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of most steel products decreased. For example, the profit of rebar in East China decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 22 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remained unchanged, the production of five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%. The production of rebar increased by 1.3%, and the inventory decreased by 5.2%. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6%, and the inventory decreased by 4.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 2.6%, while the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 8.1%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 21.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 6.5% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most varieties decreased significantly. For example, the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 42.2% [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 10.5%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5%. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%, and the daily average ore - unloading volume at 45 ports increased by 2.8% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.8%, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of most coke products remained stable, with only slight increases in the 09 and 01 contracts. The coking profit increased by 85.7% [6]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, the inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1%, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.1%, and the port inventory decreased by 1.7% [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal remained stable, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 0.5%. The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened [6]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal production increased by 0.3%, the clean coal production increased by 0.4%, the daily average production of full - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [6]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory in Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.2%, the coking coal inventory in full - sample coking plants decreased by 3.5%, the coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills increased by 0.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most spot varieties remained stable. The price of ferrosilicon in Tianjin decreased by 0.9% [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of raw materials remained stable, and the production costs and profits of main production areas remained unchanged [7]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.1%, the operating rate decreased by 4.0%, the demand remained stable, and the iron water production decreased by 0.4% [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8%, and the average available days of downstream decreased by 1.6% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 0.2%, and the prices of most spot varieties decreased. The price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.4%, and the price in Guangxi decreased by 0.9% [7]. Cost and Profit - The prices of some manganese ores decreased slightly, the production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.2%, and the production profit decreased by 5.94% [7]. Supply and Demand - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 60.3%, the arrival volume increased by 23.8%, the ore - unloading volume decreased by 25.8%, the ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, the operating rate decreased by 10.5%, and the demand remained stable [7]. Inventory Changes - The manganese ore port inventory increased by 6.2%, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [7].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. Despite potential seasonal and export - related demand weaknesses, with the reduction of tariffs in May, terminal orders have improved, and steel exports remain high. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, with attention on support at previous lows. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Although the high iron - water production keeps the inventory slightly decreasing, the expected increase in overseas mine shipments from May to June will intensify supply - demand pressure. However, improved macro - expectations may repair market sentiment [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The coke market is bearish. With steel mills reducing coke prices, the fundamental situation is unfavorable. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract when the price is high and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The coking coal market remains weak. Given the downward trend of coal prices and better fundamentals of finished products compared to coking coal, it is advisable to short the coking coal 2509 contract when the price is high and continue the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure has eased, and factory inventories are decreasing. However, overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. Demand is limited, and it is necessary to focus on subsequent export changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The silicon manganese market maintains production cuts. Supply pressure is concentrated in certain regions, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices showed small increases. For example, the price of the rebar 05 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 3101 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained stable. The profit of hot - rolled coils in South China increased by 8 yuan/ton, while the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 22 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, while the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, an increase of 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, an increase of 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures showed small changes. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 59.9 yuan/ton to 82.2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, while the weekly domestic arrival volume decreased by 83.3 tons to 2271.3 tons, a decline of 3.5% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 110.5 tons to 14055.63 tons, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coke 09 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1418 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly iron - water production decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coking coal 09 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 842 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2% [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, with a production profit of - 118 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon iron production decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.4 tons, a decline of 9.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly silicon iron demand remained unchanged at 2.0 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons to 74 tons, a decline of 11.8% [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 5792 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 5768.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 10.4 yuan/ton to - 188.5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon manganese production decreased by 0.9 tons to 16.3 tons, a decline of 5.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon manganese demand remained unchanged at 12.6 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 2.5 tons to 20.7 tons, an increase of 13.9% [7].

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

| | | | 11 11 11 11 | SUIT FULUKES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆★ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面窄幅度荡。淡季来临课统表需波动下行，产量相对平稳，库存延续下降态势。热卷需求仍有韧烂,产量有所回落,库 存延续下降态势。铁水产量有所回落,整体仍处于高位,供应压力依然较大,没事终端承接能力有待观察。从下游行业看,内 需整体依依偏弱,制造业投资增速退步放缓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] Core Viewpoints - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined, and the financing demand of the real economy has decreased. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4] - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive. The iron - water output has declined slightly this week, and the first - round price cut for coke spot has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude - steel production cuts and fiscal - policy stimulus, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak and sideways pattern [5] - In the short term, coal and coke are in a downward trend, but as the basis and spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. It is not cost - effective to chase short positions. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal 1. Supply and Demand - Domestic coking - coal mine operating rates have declined slightly but remain at a high level for the year. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), with the daily average iron - water output at 244.77 tons (-0.87) [2][3] 2. Inventory - Upstream inventories are accumulating, and downstream inventories are decreasing. The refined - coal inventory of 523 mines is 410.45 million tons (+20.02), the refined - coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 203.26 million tons (+5.98), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.21 million tons (+4), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 752.56 million tons (-22.61), and the port inventory is 306.09 million tons (+8.28) [2] 3. Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 970 yuan/ton (-45), the active contract is 838.5 yuan/ton (-6.5), the basis is 151.5 yuan/ton (-38.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 12.5 yuan/ton (-2) [1] Coke 1. Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average iron - water output is 244.77 tons (-0.87) [3] 2. Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65.46 million tons (+0.37), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663.8 million tons (-7.23), and the port inventory is 225.11 million tons (-3.97) [3] 3. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1390 yuan/ton (-0), the active contract is 1407.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), the basis is 88.37 yuan/ton (+20.5), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton (-3.5) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and improved demand expectations. It is approaching the seasonal off - season, and there is a possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to whether there is support at the previous low. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillation in the short term. Although the iron ore inventory is slightly decreasing under high pig iron production, the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the macro - expectation improvement may bring sentiment repair [3]. Coke Industry - The coke market is in a weak state. The supply side has improved production due to good orders, and the demand side shows a sign of peaking and falling. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is in a weak pattern, with the supply being relatively high and the demand likely to decline. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract opportunistically and continue to hold the strategy of longing hot - rolled coils and shorting coking coal [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been significantly alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports [6]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline. Although the supply - demand gap is narrowing under production cuts, the cost and supply pressure still exist [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show minor changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 13 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in different regions also showed varying degrees of decline [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.1%, with rebar and hot - rolled coils having a better de - stocking situation [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 09 - contract for various iron ore types increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 09 - contract for PB powder increased by 57.2 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 209.0% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 10.5% week - on - week, and the domestic arrival volume decreased by 3.5%. The pig iron production may decline slightly, but it is still expected to remain at a high level [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 45 ports decreased by 0.8% week - on - week, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0% [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coke 09 - contract decreased by 1.4%, and the 09 - basis increased by 21 yuan/ton. The coking profit increased by 85.7% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3%, and the pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [5]. Inventory Change - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.1%, with the inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports all showing a downward trend [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 09 - contract decreased by 0.8%, and the 09 - basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 4.3% week - on - week [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of raw coal and clean coal increased slightly, and the daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3% [5]. Inventory Change - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei sample mines increased by 9.2%, the inventory of coking plants decreased by 3.5%, and the port inventory increased by 2.8% [5]. Ferrosilicon Industry Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in some regions decreased slightly, and the SF - SM main - contract spread increased by 14 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5% [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 9.15%, and the demand remained stable [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [6]. Ferromanganese Industry Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The price of the ferromanganese main - contract decreased by 1.1%, and the spread between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 66 yuan/ton [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia remained the same [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferromanganese production decreased by 5.4%, and the demand decreased slightly by 0.2% [6]. Inventory Change - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9%, and the average available days decreased by 7.0% [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: May 21, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the report Key Points Summary Coke Price - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet - quenched coke is 1321.88, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 54.19, a monthly decrease of 54.19, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.54% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first wet - quenched coke is 1600.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 30.43% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry - quenched coke is 1515.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 35.26% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry - quenched coke is 1555.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 55.00, a monthly decrease of 55.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 34.66% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1050.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 50.00, a monthly decrease of 50.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 38.24% [2] Production and Utilization Rate - The blast furnace operating rate is 91.76, with a weekly decrease of 0.33, a monthly increase of 1.61, and a year - on - year increase of 4.67% [2] - The daily average pig iron output is 244.77, with a weekly decrease of 0.87, a monthly increase of 4.65, and a year - on - year increase of 3.33% [2] - The coking plant capacity utilization rate is 75.05, with a weekly decrease of 0.38, a monthly increase of 2.06, and a year - on - year increase of 4.29% [2] - The daily average coke output is 51.15, with a weekly increase of 0.30, a monthly increase of 0.35, and a year - on - year increase of 7.84% [2] Inventory - The coking plant inventory is 65.46, with a weekly increase of 0.37, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and a year - on - year increase of 65.51% [2] - The port inventory is 225.11, with a weekly decrease of 3.97, a monthly decrease of 20.99, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 663.80, with a weekly decrease of 7.23, a monthly decrease of 0.60, and a year - on - year increase of 19.04% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 12.01, with a weekly decrease of 0.09, a monthly decrease of 0.28, and a year - on - year increase of 11.72% [2] Futures Market - The latest price of futures contract 05 is 1475.5, with a daily decrease of 92.50, a weekly decrease of 110.00, a monthly decrease of 89.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 35.89% [2] - The latest price of futures contract 09 is 1419.5, with a daily decrease of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 46.00, a monthly decrease of 156.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 37.08% [2] - The latest price of futures contract 01 is 1446.5, with a daily decrease of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 49.00, a monthly decrease of 162.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 37.81% [2] - The 05 basis is 117.92, with a daily increase of 92.50, a weekly increase of 51.73, a monthly increase of 20.47, and a year - on - year increase of 41.94 [2] - The 09 basis is 173.92, with a daily increase of 12.50, a weekly decrease of 12.27, a monthly increase of 86.97, and a year - on - year increase of 52.44 [2] - The 01 basis is 146.92, with a daily increase of 13.00, a weekly decrease of 9.27, a monthly increase of 93.47, and a year - on - year increase of 95.44 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 29.00, with a daily increase of 79.50, a weekly increase of 61.00, a monthly decrease of 73.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 53.50 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is 56.00, with a daily decrease of 80.00, a weekly decrease of 64.00, a monthly increase of 66.50, and a year - on - year increase of 10.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is - 27.00, with a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly increase of 3.00, a monthly increase of 6.50, and a year - on - year increase of 43.00 [2]