Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous upgrade of special fabrics and the focus on the promotion of anti-involution policies in the construction materials sector [6] - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with a focus on construction materials and anti-involution measures [2] - The report anticipates that the anti-involution policies will lead to structural adjustments and the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries, including construction materials [6][7] Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices continue to decline, with a national average shipment rate of approximately 45.5%, a 2.4 percentage point increase month-on-month but a 0.5 percentage point decrease year-on-year [8] - The average price of cement nationwide is 348.87 yuan/ton, down 3.87 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 46.29 yuan/ton year-on-year [24] - Glass prices are showing slight increases, with a national average price of 69.59 yuan per weight box, up 0.14 yuan per weight box month-on-month but down 11.89 yuan year-on-year [37] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special fabrics and the African supply chain, with key players such as China National Materials Technology benefiting from domestic substitution in special glass fiber fabrics [10] - It also suggests paying attention to companies like Huaxin Cement and Western Cement, which are expected to benefit from the structural optimization of demand in the construction materials sector [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of existing leading companies in the construction materials sector as a main line for investment throughout the year [2][10]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy direction since July, with different segments showing distinct rhythms and strategies. The market is increasingly focused on the demand side's recovery after supply expectations have been sufficiently addressed. The industry maintains an "overweight" rating [1]. Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement industry is focusing on limiting overproduction as a key policy measure, aiming to improve off-peak production. The actual capacity has exceeded designed capacity due to capacity replacement and technological upgrades from 2016 to 2022. The expected policy to limit overproduction could raise the national average capacity utilization from 50% to 70% if fully implemented [2]. - The recent initiation of hydropower projects is expected to catalyze demand recovery in the industry, creating a resonance between supply and demand expectations [2]. Group 2: Glass Industry - In the photovoltaic glass sector, leading companies are proactively reducing production to improve supply-demand balance, with a reduction of around 30% needed for equilibrium. The pace of implementation by leading firms is crucial for monitoring [3]. - For float glass, there are currently no mandatory policies, but the focus is on optimizing energy consumption structures. Some regions may see increased production costs, and cold repairs are expected to accelerate, benefiting overall supply-demand improvement [3]. Group 3: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a stabilization in its structure, with proactive measures to improve profitability already underway. Some sub-sectors, such as waterproofing, piping, and coatings, have begun to raise prices, indicating a rational growth expectation [3]. - After a prolonged adjustment period in the real estate market, the long-term certainty of consumer building materials is solid, with leading companies expected to continue outperforming through structural optimization and expansion into new categories and markets [3].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,130.03 points, up 0.54% or 135.89 points, with a total turnover of HKD 266.07 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.39% to 9,075.6 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.38% to 5,606.83 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - BYD (01211) saw a significant increase of 5.09%, closing at HKD 134.2, contributing 37.78 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - In the first half of 2023, BYD's domestic sales exceeded 2.113 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, while overseas sales reached 472,000 units, up 128.5% [2] - Other notable blue chips included Xinyi Glass (00868) up 7.23%, Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) up 6.15%, while New Oriental (09901) and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) saw declines of 4.92% and 3.5% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Coal stocks surged, with Mongolian Coking Coal (00975) up 11.55% and Yancoal Australia (01171) up 9.53%, driven by rumors of capacity control measures in the coal industry [3][4] - Infrastructure stocks performed strongly, with China Communications Construction (01800) rising 7.57% and China Railway Construction (01186) up 6.03% [4] - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of approximately CNY 1.2 trillion, is expected to boost infrastructure investment [5] Commodity and Material Stocks - Non-ferrous metal stocks continued to rise, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 8.94% and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) up 7.12%, supported by upcoming policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [6] - The photovoltaic sector was active, with Kaisa New Energy (01108) rising 8% and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up 6.67%, as supply-side reforms are anticipated to improve industry conditions [7] Notable Stock Movements - China Longgong (03339) surged 15.83% after announcing a significant profit increase forecast for the first half of 2025 [8] - Fufeng Group (00546) rose 10.8% on expectations of a substantial profit increase due to higher sales and lower raw material costs [9] - Lijun Pharmaceutical (01513) reached a new high, up 9.37%, following positive clinical trial results for a new drug [10] - Harbin Electric (01133) climbed 8.14% after announcing a profit forecast that exceeded expectations [11] - Meizhong Jiahe (02453) faced pressure, down 6%, due to a planned share placement at a discount [12]

建信期货表示，市场预计玻璃、纯碱行业将通过淘汰落后产能优化供给，因此今日提振了市场信心。因 此，盘面走势短期偏强，后续需关注政策落地情况。 新世纪期货指出，"反内卷"交易或仍旧延续，政治局会议即将来临，宏观中性偏强。需求端，玻璃深加 工订单环比小幅走弱，但盘面上涨带来的投机需求偏强。供应端，前期点火产线出玻璃后产量预计增 加，供给端压力仍存。想要满足玻璃季节性去库，日熔量要降到15.4万吨以下。市场情绪扰动较多，玻 璃中下游库存偏低有补库空间，但刚需尚未回暖。长期看，房地产行业整体仍处于调整周期，房屋竣工 面积同比下降较多，玻璃需求难以大幅回升。"反内卷"以及钢铁行业稳增长预期继续推升市场情绪，盘 面继续攀升，后期需关注现实需求能否好转。 7月22日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，玻璃期货主力合约开盘报1173.00元/吨，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至发稿，玻璃主力最高触及1242.00元，下方探低1165.00元，涨幅达6.90%附近。 目前来看，玻璃行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于玻璃后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 东海期货分析称，供应方面，玻璃日熔量周环比持平，由于当前处于淡季， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The steel price is oscillating with an upward bias due to frequent favorable policies. The glass and soda ash markets are significantly affected by positive macro - sentiment, resulting in sharp price increases. The double - silicon market shows an upward - biased oscillation driven by rising macro - expectations [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is basically stable. It is currently in the off - season, and although inventory has decreased, the overall inventory remains high, and the pressure to reduce inventory is still large. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. For soda ash, production resumption and maintenance coexist, and the output is stable month - on - month. During the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. With the "anti - involution" production cuts in photovoltaic glass, the demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further, and the annual inventory pressure is large [1]. - For silicon manganese, the output is stable, and the demand shows resilience with the recovery of hot metal production. However, the high - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. For silicon iron, the output has increased month - on - month, and the demand has slightly decreased. The factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, the production capacity is relatively loose [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream transactions fluctuated with the market, and buyers were mainly in a wait - and - see mode [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Supply is stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, and the long - term supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to glass factory cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: Supply shows coexistence of production resumption and maintenance, with stable output month - on - month. During the summer maintenance, the operating rate will be low. With photovoltaic glass production cuts, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory pressure is large. Monitor production line intermittent maintenance and new production capacity [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillation [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Yesterday, it oscillated with an upward bias. In the spot market, confidence was strong. The price in the northern market was 5680 - 5730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - Silicon Iron: Yesterday, the futures market was strong. In the spot market, sentiment improved, and the price increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Output is stable. With the recovery of hot metal production, demand is resilient. High - level inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppresses the price. The Australian manganese ore shipment has basically recovered. Monitor silicon manganese inventory and manganese ore shipment [3]. - Silicon Iron: Output has increased month - on - month, and demand has slightly decreased. Factory inventory is at a medium - high level. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, and the price fluctuates with the sector. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose. Pay attention to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants. Look for low - level rebound opportunities in far - month contracts [4]. - Silicon Iron: Oscillation [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The soda ash market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but there is still inventory accumulation. The future demand side is bearish, and the overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk trend is strongly volatile following the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish due to the supply - demand contradiction [8][9]. - The glass market faces pressure from high inventory and slow capacity reduction. The downstream real estate has not improved substantially. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **July 21 Market Data**: The main futures contract SA509 opened high and closed high, with a closing price of 1,295 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan/ton or 5.62%, and a daily reduction of 297,887 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week of July 17, the weekly output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a 5.48% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase, with high - level inventory and a slowdown in growth [8]. - **Analysis**: Summer maintenance device recovery led to increased production and inventory accumulation. The demand side is bearish due to the expected reduction in photovoltaic glass production. The overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk follows the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish [9]. Glass - **Supply**: Affected by the planned production reduction of photovoltaic glass enterprises, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the supply of float glass has also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [10][11]. - **Downstream**: The domestic real estate completion link has not improved substantially, and the downward trend continues [11]. - **Analysis**: The anti - involution policy expectation has strengthened market confidence. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [11]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides charts of soda ash and glass active contract price trends, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources including Wind and iFind [13][16][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant recovery in commodity prices, driven by policy support and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, indicating potential profitability recovery for companies in affected industries [1][2] - Recent price increases in commodities such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and alumina suggest a positive shift in the market, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days and lithium carbonate surpassing 70,000 yuan per ton [1] - The Chinese government's policies focusing on "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are aimed at addressing low-price competition, enhancing consumption, and ensuring macroeconomic stability, respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The collaboration between "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" is essential for creating a conducive environment for economic recovery, with consumer spending contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [2] - The article suggests that with continued policy support, the commodity sector may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1 - Recent surge in commodity prices, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days, lithium carbonate futures exceeding 70,000 yuan/ton, and coking coal and glass futures increasing by 20.26% and 14.44% respectively [1] - The price recovery indicates an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics, suggesting potential recovery in corporate profitability [1] - Key drivers of this price increase stem from ongoing policy initiatives aimed at promoting economic stability and growth, including measures to combat disorderly low-price competition and enhance domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The policies of "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are interrelated and mutually reinforcing, with each supporting the others [2] - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating a continuous release of consumption potential [2] - With policy support, commodities may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].