以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪提振 关注淡季需求 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 2 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上受美国经济数据疲软以及美联储官员做出 鸽派发言的影响，交易员认为 12 月降息的概率提高至 87%。美国制造业 11 月连 续第九个月萎缩，工厂面临订单下滑和原材料价格上涨的双重压力，进口关税的 拖累持续存在。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated December 2, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Gold:降息预期回升, indicating that the expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver:加速冲刺，再创新高, meaning it is accelerating and hitting new highs [2]. - Copper:紧张预期，价格上涨, suggesting a tight supply expectation leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc:供应减产，震荡偏强, showing supply cuts and a tendency to be strong with fluctuations [2]. - Lead:库存减少，支撑价格, indicating that inventory reduction supports the price [2]. - Tin:供应再出扰动, meaning there are further disruptions in supply [2]. - Aluminum:偏强运行, suggesting a relatively strong performance [2]. - Alumina:震荡磨底, indicating a process of bottom - grinding with fluctuations [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy:跟随电解铝, meaning it follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum:震荡上行, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [2]. - Palladium:横盘整理, indicating a sideways consolidation [2]. - Nickel:基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行, suggesting that fundamentals limit the upside potential and it fluctuates at a low level [2]. - Stainless Steel:库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力, meaning high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downside [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 959.64 with a daily increase of 1.05%, and the night - session closing price was 964.72 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. - **Silver**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 13282 with a daily increase of 4.46%, and the night - session closing price was 13766.00 with a night - session increase of 5.08%. The trend strength is 1 [4]. Copper - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,280 with a daily increase of 2.12%, and the night - session closing price was 89380 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend strength is 1 [9]. Zinc - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22590 with a 0.74% increase. The trend strength is 1 [12]. Lead - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17075 with a - 0.09% change. The trend strength is 0 [15]. Tin - Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 306,580 with a 0.50% increase. The trend strength is 0 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1 [22]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum**: The trend strength is 1, showing an upward trend with fluctuations [28]. - **Palladium**: The trend strength is 0, indicating a sideways consolidation [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0 [30].

铝价重心持续走高，下游接货谨慎 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21730元/吨，较上一交易日变化280元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21600元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-180元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21640元/吨，较上一交易日变化280元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-135元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-01日沪铝主力合约开于21615元/吨，收于21865元/吨，较上一交易日变化355元/吨，最 高价达21915元/吨，最低价达到21575元/吨。全天交易日成交255931手，全天交易日持仓265623手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-01，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化-102吨，LME铝库存537900吨，较上一交易日变化-1150吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-01SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860元/吨，广西价格录得2885元/吨，贵 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holdings Co., Ltd. plans to acquire aluminum assets held by its major shareholder for 63.5 billion RMB (approximately 9 billion USD) through a share issuance [1] Group 1 - The target company, Shandong Hongtuo Industrial, is one of the largest producers of electrolytic aluminum globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. announced a capital increase of 1 billion yuan to enhance the financial strength of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. This move aims to support the development of the aluminum processing sector and strengthen the company's market position and brand influence [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The capital increase will involve 447 million yuan being added to the registered capital of Shenhuo New Materials, raising it from 908 million yuan to 1.355 billion yuan, while the remaining 553 million yuan will be allocated to capital reserves [1]. - The capital increase will not change the ownership structure, as Shenhuo New Materials remains a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shenhuo Co., Ltd. [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of September 2025, Shenhuo New Materials reported total assets of 6.653 billion yuan and total liabilities of 4.664 billion yuan, with equity attributable to the parent company amounting to 1.988 billion yuan [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shenhuo New Materials achieved a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan but reported a net loss of 314.431 million yuan, contrasting with a net profit of 642.085 million yuan in the same period of 2024, indicating a phase of performance fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Market Context - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has seen its stock price increase by 24% in the fourth quarter of this year, reaching 25 yuan per share, the highest in 14 years [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 31.005 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while net profit was 3.49 billion yuan, a slight decline of 1.38% [3]. - The global aluminum market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with low inventory levels and stable demand, which may support higher aluminum prices in the future [3].

证券日报网讯12月1日，焦作万方（000612）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司40万吨再生铝项 目在焦作万方铝业股份有限公司厂区内实施。 ...

(资料图片仅供参考) 山东龙口，地处胶东半岛西北部、渤海湾南岸的县域小城。 民营经济贡献了全市近500家链上企业97%的工业企业数量、80%以上的就业岗位，龙口全市民营 企业总数超2万家…… 民营经济何以成为龙口"最亮名片"？ 以"链式发展"推动产业升级。在龙口，以南山铝业为主的高端铝产业链已拥有相关企业120多家、 总产值超1000亿元。 面对激烈的市场竞争，龙口市一大批民营企业在高端化、智能化、绿色化上下功夫，加大产品更新 换代步伐，加速由"龙口制造"向"龙口创造"的蝶变。 目前，龙口已形成2条千亿元级、2条百亿元级产业链，工业年产值超2200亿元。当地规上工业增加 值增速连续5年保持两位数，省级以上"单项冠军""专精特新"企业达390家。 龙口，这座胶东半岛上的明珠，正努力向着县域经济高质量发展迈进。 新华社音视频部制作 标签： 龙口 民营经济 中国经济样本观察 ...

Core Insights - Longkou, a small city in Shandong, has a remarkable economic performance with a per capita GDP close to that of Shanghai, driven primarily by its vibrant private sector [1][3] - The private economy in Longkou contributes significantly to the local industrial landscape, accounting for 97% of industrial enterprises and over 80% of employment [1][2] Group 1: Private Economy and Industrial Development - Longkou boasts over 20,000 private enterprises, with a high concentration of innovative companies, particularly in the aluminum and automotive sectors [1][2] - The city has established two industrial chains with over 100 billion yuan in total output value, contributing to an annual industrial output exceeding 220 billion yuan [2] - Longkou's industrial growth is supported by a strong emphasis on technological innovation, with companies like Daon Group developing biodegradable packaging and Zhiyuan AI enhancing industrial fault response [2][4] Group 2: Business Culture and Entrepreneurial Spirit - The local culture highly respects entrepreneurship, with a historical legacy of successful business families fostering a strong entrepreneurial spirit [3][4] - The government collaborates closely with businesses to navigate market challenges, emphasizing the importance of precision in industry development [3][4] Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Longkou is focusing on green and intelligent manufacturing, with local enterprises actively engaging in technological upgrades and innovations [4][5] - The establishment of a youth entrepreneur club aims to facilitate collaboration and knowledge sharing among local businesses, enhancing innovation [5][6] Group 4: Talent Attraction and Development - Longkou is working to improve its talent attraction strategies, including initiatives to connect with national-level talents and enhance cooperation with universities [6][7] - The local government is implementing a comprehensive talent policy to attract various skill levels, from top-tier professionals to skilled workers [6][7]

研 究 院 货 金 铝价再度转强，有望挑战前高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 研 究 院 周五美国感恩节假期，市场继续加强美联储降息预期。周五芝商所故障导致交易中断，本身假期流动性不足， 导致市场波动被放大。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民 币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报21865，现货报21720，现货较期货贴水-145点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水扩大至-60 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存小幅下降，氧化铝库存上升。上期所铝库存小幅下降，现货需求一 般。LME库存稳定，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-26美元，海外现货需求不佳。人民币汇率本周大涨，铝价沪伦比本周下 降至7.58，内外盘走势大体相当。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大涨创近期新高，伦铝小幅上涨，在2878美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨，收于21865，技 术形态偏强。沪铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪乐观。本周国内电解铝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has provided a detailed response to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the sustainable operation capability, capacity transfer plan, and fixed asset impairment of the target assets, indicating a positive outlook for future operations [1] Group 1: Industry Position and Market Potential - The target company ranks second in both electrolytic aluminum and alumina production, with capacities of 6.459 million tons (14.48% of domestic total) and 19 million tons (18.21% of national total) respectively [2] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in China is projected to reach 45.18 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.18% over the past five years, while alumina demand is expected to be around 85 million tons, indicating steady industry growth [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is strictly controlled by policy, with the total capacity nearing the 4.5 million tons limit, suggesting a balanced supply-demand scenario in the future [2] Group 2: Capacity Transfer Plan - The company plans to transfer 3.96 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity to Yunnan in phases, with 1.729 million tons already completed by mid-2025 and further transfers scheduled for 2025 to 2027 [3] - The capacity transfer plan has received approval from the relevant authorities and aligns with national policies on carbon neutrality and the green transformation of the non-ferrous metals industry [3] - Employee placement has been effectively managed, with 87.79% of the 3,750 employees affected by the transfer remaining in Shandong projects, and 12.21% voluntarily relocating to Yunnan [3] Group 3: Fixed Asset Impairment - The company has made sufficient provisions for fixed asset impairment, with a total impairment reserve of 3.484 billion yuan as of the end of 2024, including 1.730 billion yuan for 2024 [4] - The impairment is primarily related to the shutdown of electrolytic aluminum capacity and upgrades to alumina production lines, with no significant new impairments expected in the short term [4] - Post-transfer, the electrolytic aluminum capacities in Shandong and Yunnan will be 3.451 million tons and 3.008 million tons respectively, with Yunnan benefiting from lower electricity costs [4] Group 4: Third-Party Verification - Independent financial advisors have confirmed the broad market potential of the target assets, the stability of the competitive landscape, and the compliance of the capacity transfer plan with policy requirements [5] - The verification also noted that employee placement and debt management have been effectively implemented, and the fixed asset impairment provisions are adequate [5]