从基本面看，国内电解铝产能触顶、后续供应增加有限；海外部分电解铝炼厂因电力问题减停产，且新 增产能落地不及预期，整体供应难有明显增长。需求端，淡季下游需求整体疲软，市场"恐高"情绪蔓 延，现货交投谨慎。不过，环保限产解除后，下游铝加工企业开工率有所回升。尽管传统地产行业持续 低迷，但新能源领域需求爆发，特别是人工智能、算力基础、人形机器人及低空经济的快速发展，为铝 需求带来广阔预期。此外，铜价不断创出新高，催生"铝代铜"兴起，铝需求预期强劲。然而，上期所库 存数据显示，1月9日当周铝锭社会库存继续累积，环比增加10.8%至14.38万吨，反映出当前现货交易低 迷的现实。 综合来看，短期内铝价处于高位，且季节性淡季持续抑制终端需求，后续库存可能继续累积。但盘面上 多头情绪高涨，沪铝有阶段性反弹预期，整体呈震荡上扬态势，今现铝价格或大幅上涨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月9日伦铝最新库存量报497825公吨，较上个交易日减少1925吨，跌幅 0.39%。 长江铝业网讯：1月9日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报24030元/吨，涨30元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 24100元/吨，涨70元。 宏观层面，周五美国劳工部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm payroll data in the US in December 2025 was lower than expected, with data for October and November revised downwards. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026. The non - ferrous metals sector started strongly in 2026, and although there was short - term profit - taking, the overall upward trend remained unchanged. The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals showed different trends driven by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical factors [3][10][11]. - China's economic data in December 2025 was positive. The official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing PMI was also better than expected. The central bank emphasized increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - The US economic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, but the ISM services index reached a new high in more than a year. The employment data was weak, and the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts remained [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - level factors**: In 2026, a relatively loose monetary environment, AI technological development, increased attention to key mineral supply chains, and resource nationalism in resource - rich countries supported the non - ferrous metals sector. However, there was short - term high - volatility due to profit - taking [10]. - **China's economic situation**: In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The central bank planned to increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [10]. - **US economic situation**: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 shrank, the "small non - farm" ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than expected. The non - farm payroll in December increased by only 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026 [10][11]. - **Investment recommendations for each metal**: - **Copper**: It was recommended to buy on dips. The short - term upper pressure range was 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider the reverse - spread opportunity between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts and buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options [3][4]. - **Aluminum and its industrial chain**: For aluminum, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 24,500 - 25,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection. For alumina, sell on rallies, with the upper pressure range at 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money call options for protection. For recycled aluminum alloy, a bullish approach was recommended, with the upper pressure range at 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and the lower support range at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - **Tin**: Temporarily wait and see or take a bullish approach. The upper pressure range was 360,000 - 380,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range was 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Zinc**: It was relatively strong and followed the overall sector. The upper pressure was around 24,300 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term lower support was around 23,600 - 23,800 yuan/ton. Consider the bull - spread option strategy [6]. - **Lead**: It was expected to oscillate and rise. The short - term lower support was around 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton, and the upper resistance was around 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Use a covered - call option strategy [7]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel showed high - elasticity and short - term strength. The upper resistance was around 140,000 - 142,000 yuan, and the lower support was around 130,000 - 132,000 yuan. Use options to protect long positions. For stainless steel, a bullish approach on dips was recommended, with the price range at 13,000 - 14,200 yuan [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures price changes**: Copper closed at 101,410 yuan/ton, up 3.23%; aluminum at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 6.99%; tin at 352,540 yuan/ton, up 9.17%; nickel at 139,090 yuan/ton, up 4.70%; stainless steel at 13,860 yuan/ton, up 5.60%; zinc at 23,970 yuan/ton, up 2.99%; alumina at 2,843 yuan/ton, up 2.34%; lead at 17,355 yuan/ton, unchanged; and cast aluminum alloy at 22,985 yuan/ton, up 1.77% [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot price changes**: Copper spot prices decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 100,720 yuan/ton, down 1.88%. Zinc spot prices also decreased, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 24,020 yuan/ton, down 0.66%. Aluminum spot prices were stable, with the Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum spot average price at 24,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. Alumina spot prices were stable, with the Antaike national alumina average price at 2,693 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - **Copper**: Included data on exchange copper inventory changes, SMM social copper inventory changes, copper concentrate rough - smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper prices [26]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market prices, galvanized sheet production seasonality, and the weekly inventory seasonality of SMM seven - region zinc ingots [28]. - **Aluminum and alumina**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum prices, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum prices, the average price trend of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum ingots, the comparison of China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity and total capacity, alumina spot price trends, alumina port inventory changes, and alumina capacity and operating rate trends [32][38]. - **Tin**: Included data on the relationship between Shanghai tin prices and spot premiums, LME tin prices and spot premiums, the relationship between Shanghai tin inventory and LME tin inventory, tin concentrate processing fees, and the seasonal diagram of China's refined tin production [44][47][49]. - **Lead**: Included data on SHFE lead futures inventory, LME lead inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premiums, lead concentrate processing fees, primary lead operating rate, and SMM lead - acid battery weekly operating rate [56][59][61]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Included data on SHFE nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premiums, LME nickel 0 - 3 premiums, the average price of nickel - iron, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, stainless steel warehouse receipts, the inventory of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, and the profit margin of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel [63][68][70]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - **Copper**: Recommended a reverse - spread between the 2602 and 2603 copper contracts due to supply constraints and the Fed's rate - cut and balance - sheet - expansion cycle [17]. - Also included data on the changes in the copper Shanghai - London ratio, the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper, and other relevant arbitrage - related data [75]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - **Copper**: Included data on copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [95][97]. - **Zinc**: Included data on zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open - interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open - interest [99]. - **Aluminum**: Included data on aluminum option trading volume and open - interest trends, the ratio of call to put open - interest trends, and Shanghai aluminum volatility trends [100].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It presents the current market trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with short - term and medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions [2][10][30]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. Market sentiment has been affected by factors such as the US economic data and geopolitical tensions [2][6]. - **Silver**: It is testing new highs again. Both domestic and international silver prices have risen significantly, with strong performance in the night - trading session [2][6]. - **Platinum**: ETF holdings have continued to flow out, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [2][25]. - **Palladium**: After rising to a high, the price has fallen back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has increased. The production of a major copper smelter has increased, and the US economic data has also had an impact on the market [2][10]. - **Zinc**: It is running strongly. The inventory has decreased, and the price has been supported [2][13]. - **Lead**: The overseas inventory has decreased, which supports the price [2][16]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating and strengthening. The inventory has decreased, and the price has shown an upward trend [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has significantly moved up. The prices of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have all shown different degrees of increase [2][22]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [2][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of ferronickel has lifted the oscillation center, and the market is gaming the Indonesian policy [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela has fermented, and the short - term international energy prices may be strong, which has an impact on related products such as methanol and fuel oil [98][99]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The geopolitical conflict and the expected improvement of port inventory support the price, but the MTO fundamentals are weak [99]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to correct in the short term but remain strong in the medium term. The agricultural demand provides support [103][104]. - **PTA**: It is unilaterally strong. The future supply and demand are expected to be weak, but the current low - inventory de - stocking situation supports the price [65]. - **MEG**: It is short - term strong in a rebound. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the price has support at a low level [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The raw material prices of tires have risen, which has affected the cost and profit of the tire industry [67][71]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is oscillating at a high level. The raw material price and inventory have an impact on the market [73][74]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The market is affected by factors such as raw materials and demand [76][77]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The market is affected by cost and demand [79][80]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory [81][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends [86][89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass price has shown minor fluctuations [92][93]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related**: The price of soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as the US USDA report and Chinese procurement. The market is waiting for the release of the report [160][162]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies [163][165]. - **Sugar**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The global sugar supply and demand situation and import and export policies have an impact on the market [167][168]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The cotton spot price has declined slightly, and the downstream demand is weak [172][173]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [176]. - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hogs has shown minor fluctuations [179]. - **Peanuts**: It is oscillating. The spot price of peanuts has shown minor fluctuations, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand [182][183]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It may be strong in a short - term oscillation. The 02 long positions and 04 short positions should be reduced appropriately. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and policies [126][135].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, although the new jobs in the US employment data were lower than expected, the unemployment rate decreased. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. Geopolitical risks in Venezuela have increased the premium of resource products, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is high. On the supply side, new domestic and Indonesian production capacities continue to release increments, and Australia's Tomago aluminum plant may face the risk of non - renewal of power contracts in 2028. On the consumption side, the weekly aluminum processing operating rate remains low, and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics. Aluminum ingot inventories increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and aluminum rod inventories increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. Affected by the macro - environment and capital rotation effect, aluminum prices have risen rapidly. The policy issued over the weekend indicates that the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics after April may trigger a short - term rush in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a phased increase in sector consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. [3][8] - For cast aluminum, last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy continued to decline to 58% due to repeated regional environmental protection controls and insufficient orders. On the consumption side, downstream buyers are clearly reluctant to buy at high prices, generally choosing to digest inventories, postpone purchases, or only maintain rigid demand, and some even plan to stop production early, resulting in light market transactions. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 334 tons to 70,000 tons. The pattern of weak supply and demand for cast aluminum continues, but cost support remains strong, so it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation. In the medium term, as the macro - bullish atmosphere is gradually digested and capital calms down, cast aluminum may enter a high - level consolidation stage. [3][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2,997 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, to 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, an increase of 152 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract price rose from 22,980 dollars/ton to 24,420 dollars/ton, an increase of 1,440 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from - 27.5 dollars/ton to 8.3 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 13,925 tons to 497,825 tons, while the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,407 tons to 90,912 tons. [5] - The spot average price rose from 22,370 yuan/ton to 23,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,490 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from - 210 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton. The South China storage spot average price rose from 22,293 yuan/ton to 23,876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,582.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 77 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.7 yuan/ton. [5] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 64.5 tons to 71.4 tons, an increase of 6.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 15,888.96 yuan/ton to 15,851.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.3 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 6,481.04 yuan/ton to 8,008.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,527.3 yuan/ton. [5] - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,450 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton, and the Baotai spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,000 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2,009 yuan/ton to 2,761 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased from 3,084 yuan/ton to 3,836 yuan/ton, both with an increase of 752 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 334 tons to 69,922 tons. [5] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week. [6] - Macro - economically, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data was released, the market expected that the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January was almost zero. [6] - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. The ISM services PMI index in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The preliminary value of the eurozone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched services inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. [6][7] - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum - processing sectors were differentiated, but overall, it presented a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression". High aluminum prices became the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and the recovery of the industry's operating rate. [7] - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on January 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. [7] - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 23,700 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 2,761 yuan/ton, up 752 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum was 2,664 yuan/ton, up 548 yuan/ton from last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises last week decreased to 58% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 70,000 tons, up 334 tons from last Friday. [7] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, for electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate favorably with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. For cast aluminum, it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation and may enter a high - level consolidation stage in the medium term. [8][9] 3.4 Industry News - Vietnam's first electrolytic aluminum project, the Dac Nong electrolytic aluminum plant project, is initially planned to be completed and put into production in early July 2026. [11] - Anhui Ruixing Metal Materials Co., Ltd. plans to build a project with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of recycled aluminum, and the project is currently in the environmental impact report acceptance and publicity stage. [11] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products. As of April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. [11][12] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME 3 - month aluminum and SHFE aluminum continuous - three contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, inventory seasonal changes, and cast aluminum - related prices, refined - scrap price differences, and exchange inventories. [13][24][32]

Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its stake in China Aluminum (02600.HK) by acquiring 1,799,814 shares at an average price of HKD 13.4546 per share, totaling approximately HKD 24.216 million [1] - Following this acquisition, JPMorgan's total holdings in China Aluminum rose to 198,694,532 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 4.99% to 5.03% [1]

格隆汇1月12日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年1月6日，中国铝业(02600.HK)获JPMorgan Chase & Co.以每股均价13.4546港元增持好仓179.98万 股，涉资约2421.6万港元。 增持后，JPMorgan Chase & Co.最新持好仓数目为198,694,532股，持好仓比例由4.99%上升至5.03%。 | 家宿 平 - | 大股東/華車/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | 日前午出了出版地图书 | 佔已發行的 有關事件的 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | (請參閱上述 * 註解) 有投票權限(日/月/年 | | | | | | | | 分自分市 | | CS20260109E00484 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1001(L) | 1,799,814(L) | HKD 13.4546 | 198.694.532(L | 5.03(L)06/01/2026 | | | | 1403(S) | 1.145 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is the change in the controlling shareholder of Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holding Co., Ltd. after the acquisition of 100% equity of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. through a share issuance [1][3] - The company received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for the share issuance to acquire assets, and the issuance has been completed [2] - After the equity change, the total share capital of the company increased to 13,031,118,202 shares, with Weiqiao Aluminum holding 11,335,057,116 shares, representing 86.98% of the total [3] Group 2 - The company plans to change its name to "Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Co., Ltd." and its stock abbreviation to "Hongqiao Holding" to better reflect its business transformation towards a full industry chain in aluminum production [5][6] - The name change has received preliminary approval from the market supervision department and aligns with the company's strategic development [6][7] - The company will modify its articles of association and other relevant documents to reflect the name change and will disclose progress on this matter [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is in a tight supply - demand balance, and aluminum prices still have upward potential under the support of global wide - policy and the tight supply - demand balance. The traditional consumption areas have a slowdown in growth, and exports are restricted by US tariff policies, but emerging areas such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics show clear incremental demand. The "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue due to the high copper - aluminum price ratio. [7] - The raw material bauxite supply is expected to remain loose, but policy changes in Guinea need attention. Alumina supply pressure exists with large - scale new production capacity, and policy adjustments in the domestic industry should be closely watched. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity expansion channels are basically closed, and overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - The strategy is to hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: Geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the US - EU tension, and the uncertainty in the Middle East have increased market concerns. The US employment growth in December 2025 was still sluggish with 50,000 new non - farm jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate. [7] - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is expected to be loose, but Guinea's policy changes are a risk. Alumina supply pressure persists with large new - capacity projects, and cost provides some price support. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and the expansion channel is basically closed. Overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - **Demand**: Traditional consumption areas have a slowdown, and exports are affected by US tariffs. However, emerging areas like AI, energy storage, and robotics will drive demand growth, and the "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue. [7] - **Inventory**: Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, social inventory is increasing, and the spot discount is widening. [7] - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio, but no specific analysis is provided other than the data sources. [11][15] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.50% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 187 million tons, a 29.61% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative import was 158.767 million tons, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea was the main source, accounting for 69.41%. Domestic bauxite production from January to October 2025 was 50.5155 million tons, a 5.19% year - on - year increase, but in October, it decreased by 6.96% year - on - year. Since July, domestic bauxite port inventory has declined. [25][31] - **Alumina**: In November 2025, the weighted average full cost of domestic alumina was 2,870 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease. The spot price dropped to 2,869 yuan/ton, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. The industry was near the break - even point with an average loss of 1 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 84.657 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 970,300 tons, a 30.92% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export was 2.3433 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase. The net export was 1.373 million tons, a 612.58% year - on - year increase. In 2025, it was a year of large - scale capacity investment, and there are still many projects to be put into production in 2026 and later. [39][41] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry showed "increasing cost and growing profit". The weighted average full cost was 16,297 yuan/ton, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The average profit was about 5,400 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum smelting enterprise's built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating capacity was estimated to be 43.479 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.28%. In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.086 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 64.93 million tons. From January to November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 40.172 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 1.47 million tons, a 2.44% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was about 23.578 million tons, a 19.35% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the domestic primary aluminum export was about 5.83 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the LME futures inventory was 501,800 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons. [55][61][62][68][72][73] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, a 17.0% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative production was 16.141 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. [81] - **Aluminum Products and Bars**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative production was 61.511 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In 2024, the national aluminum product production was 67.8311 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. [88] - **Aluminum Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's imports of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products were 240,000 tons, a 14.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was 3.6 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, the export was 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease and a 13.3% month - on - month increase; from January to November, the cumulative export was 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. [94] - **Downstream Demand**: In real estate, from January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, building aluminum consumption is expected to decline by 5% to 9.088 million tons, and its proportion in the overall electrolytic aluminum downstream demand will drop to 21%. In the transportation industry, the demand for aluminum in the automotive sector is expected to increase, with new energy vehicle aluminum demand reaching 4.373 million tons in 2026. In the power industry, the growth of photovoltaic aluminum consumption will slow down, while energy - storage aluminum demand is expected to increase significantly, with a 60% year - on - year increase in global energy - storage battery shipments in 2026, driving an 815,000 - ton increase in aluminum demand. [105][109] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Domestically, the decline in real - estate aluminum consumption in 2025 will be offset by the growth of new demand in photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles, and domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026. Globally, the global primary aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.4 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. The global aluminum demand is expected to increase by 2.7%, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance. After 2027, as China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaches its peak, the supply increment will mainly come from overseas, and the demand from new energy and AI will continue to grow, leading to an expanding supply - demand gap. [112] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content analysis is provided other than the data source. [116]

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：锚定铝价，价格震荡偏强 强弱分析：中性偏强 精废价差骤增 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ADC12-A00价差 ...

责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月6日，摩根大通增持中国铝业（02600）179.9814万股，每股作价13.4546 港元，总金额约为2421.58万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1.99亿股，最新持股比例为5.03%。 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 香港联交所最新资料显示，1月6日，摩根大通增持中国铝业（02600）179.9814万股，每股作价13.4546 港元，总金额约为2421.58万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为1.99亿股，最新持股比例为5.03%。 ...