记者丨 唐铮玮 2026年首个交易日，A股市场高开高走迎来开门红，截至收盘，沪指涨1.38%重回4000点上 方，录得十二连阳，深成指涨2.24%，创业板指涨2.85%。沪深两市成交额高达2.55万亿，较 上一个交易日放量5011亿，全市场超4100只个股上涨。板块上，保险板块集体爆发，新华保 险、中国太保大涨续创历史新高。商业航天概念反复活跃，半导体产业链走强，AI应用概念表 现活跃。下跌方面，海南自贸概念集体大跌。 回顾2025年全年，A股持续走强，沪深两市全年总成交额超400万亿元创下年度历史新高，A 股总市值跃升至近109万亿元，年内新增近23万亿元。各大主要指数全线上涨，其中，创业板 指领涨市场全年涨幅高达49.57%，沪指全年上涨18.41%再度逼近4000点，深证成指全年上涨 29.87%，科创50指数全年上涨35.92%，北证50指数全年上证38.80%。板块方面，CPO（光模 块）、存储芯片、商业航天、有色金属等方向领涨，胜宏科技、新易盛、中际旭创等多只科技 龙头全年涨幅超过3倍。 据不完全统计，目前已有30余家券商发布了2026年1月投资组合和最新市场观点。 纵观这些报告，多家机构看好市场 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2026年首个交易日，A股市场高开高走迎来开门红，截至收盘，沪指涨1.38%重回4000点上方，录得十二连阳，深成指涨2.24%，创业板指涨2.85%。沪深两 市成交额高达2.55万亿，较上一个交易日放量5011亿，全市场超4100只个股上涨。板块上，保险板块集体爆发，新华保险、中国太保大涨续创历史新高。商 业航天概念反复活跃，半导体产业链走强，AI应用概念表现活跃。下跌方面，海南自贸概念集体大跌。 回顾2025年全年，A股持续走强，沪深两市全年总成交额超400万亿元创下年度历史新高，A股总市值跃升至近109万亿元，年内新增近23万亿元。各大主要 指数全线上涨，其中，创业板指领涨市场全年涨幅高达49.57%，沪指全年上涨18.41%再度逼近4000点，深证成指全年上涨29.87%，科创50指数全年上涨 35.92%，北证50指数全年上证38.80%。板块方面，CPO（光模块）、存储芯片、商业航天、有色金属等方向领涨，胜宏科技、新易盛、中际旭创等多只科 技龙头全年涨幅超过3倍。 复盘2025年12月，A股"先抑后扬"，沪指月末收获11连阳 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.38% to close at 4023.42 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.24% to 13828.63 points, the ChiNext Index up by 2.85% to 3294.55 points, and the STAR 50 Index gaining 4.41% to close at 1403.41 points [1] - Overall, 4180 stocks rose while 1162 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 25,463 billion yuan, an increase of 5,011 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Media, Pharmaceuticals & Biology, Electronics, Non-bank Financials, and Computers, with respective gains of 4.12%, 3.85%, 3.69%, 3.14%, and 2.71% [1] - Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Petroleum & Petrochemicals, Banks, Transportation, and Retail, with losses of 1.29%, 0.34%, 0.30%, and 0.17% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included Brain-Computer Interfaces, Selected Medical Devices, Memory Storage, Selected Insurance, CRO, Selected Medical Services, Moore Threads, Analog Chips, Gene Testing, Virtual Humans, Lithium Battery Electrolytes, ASIC Chips, the SMIC Industrial Chain, Innovative Drugs, and Pinduoduo Partners [2] - In contrast, sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Port, Stablecoins, Duty-Free Shops, and Cryptocurrencies experienced pullbacks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in consumer spending in Nanjing during the New Year holiday, driven by various promotional activities and subsidies [1][2][3] - Nanjing's monitored sample enterprises achieved a total sales revenue of 1.67 billion yuan over the three-day holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% compared to the previous year's single-day data [1] - The retail, catering, and accommodation sectors in Nanjing saw transaction amounts increase by 30%, 36.5%, and 214% respectively, as reported by UnionPay Business [1] Group 2 - The city organized over 60 commercial and cultural activities on New Year's Eve, resulting in a 35.9% increase in retail, 66.7% in catering, and 121.9% in accommodation transaction amounts [2] - The monitored 30 shopping malls and complexes reported a 14.6% increase in sales and a 30.2% increase in foot traffic on December 31 [2] - Key retail enterprises in the Xinjiekou and Baijiahu business districts experienced sales growth of 18.8% and 16.2% respectively [2] Group 3 - Nanjing's districts issued millions in consumer vouchers and collaborated with platforms like Alipay and Meituan to provide discounts, effectively lowering consumption thresholds [3] - The supply of essential goods remained stable, with sufficient quantities and stable prices for vegetables and pork, ensuring an orderly market during the holiday [3]

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 湘财证券研究所 相关研究： | 1.《近期板块走强，关注零售百货 | | --- | | 业态变革》 2024.12.11 | | 2.《2024年社零总额增长3.5%，线 | | 下商超业态平稳复苏》2025.01.24 | 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0.0 5.7 -10.4 绝对收益 0.0 5.5 12.3 -50.00% 0.00% 50.00% 沪深300 商贸零售(申万) 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：聂孟依 证书编号：S0500524040001 Tel：(8621) 50299667 Email：nmy06967@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 行业研究 商贸零售行业周报 元旦假期文旅消费数据出炉，关注相关零售产业链 核心要点： ❑ 商贸零售板块上周下跌 1.63% 根据 wind，上周，商贸零售报收 2422.59 点，下跌 1.63%，涨幅排名位列 申万一级行业第26位，跑输沪深300指数1.04个百分点；贸易Ⅱ报收4 ...

- Model Name: Timing System Model; Model Construction Idea: The model uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) to distinguish the overall market environment[2][6][11] - Model Construction Process: The model calculates the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6298 points and the 120-day moving average at 6090 points. The difference between the two lines is 3.41%, and the absolute value of the distance continues to be greater than 3%, indicating that the market is in an upward trend[2][6][11] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively identifies the market's upward trend, providing a positive signal for market timing[2][6][11] - Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model identifies industry trends and allocates based on medium-term reversal expectations and sector performance[2][5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model signals to focus on service consumption sectors such as tourism and media based on medium-term reversal expectations. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on AI applications and commercial aerospace. The industry trend model shows that the communication, industrial metals, and energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides clear guidance on sector allocation, helping investors to focus on promising sectors[2][5][7] - Model Name: Position Management Model; Model Construction Idea: The model suggests stock allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model uses the PE and PB ratios of the WIND All A Index. The PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate level. Based on these indicators and short-term trends, the model suggests an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides a balanced approach to stock allocation, considering both valuation and market trends[5][7] Model Backtest Results - Timing System Model, Moving Average Distance: 3.41%[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Market Trend Line: 6262 points[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Profit Effect: 2.71%[2][6][11] - Position Management Model, PE Ratio: 90th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, PB Ratio: 50th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, Stock Allocation: 80%[5][7]

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.59% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures decreased by 0.06% [1][11] - The report highlights a mixed performance in commodity futures, with coking coal futures down by 0.76% and iron ore futures up by 2.00% [1][11] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 1 basis point to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures dropped by 0.36% [1][11] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is equities > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a positive outlook on A-shares and stable bond yields [2][4] - The report suggests that the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status is weakening, prompting international capital to seek alternatives, with RMB assets being a top choice due to their stability and growth potential [2][4] - The report anticipates that commodity prices will be influenced by supply pressures in oil and demand dynamics in cyclical goods, while agricultural products will be affected by supply factors [2][4] Key Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for December was reported at 50.1, indicating a slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.2, returning to the expansion zone [18] - The report notes that the upcoming National People's Congress will convene on March 4, 2026, which may influence economic policies [18][19] Market Performance Insights - The report details a significant decline in the real estate market, with a notable drop in transaction volumes for new homes in major cities, indicating potential market stabilization due to recent policy changes [36][41] - The automotive sector is experiencing a downturn, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showing negative growth for four consecutive weeks [36][41] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds has risen to 1.85%, with a noted increase in the yield of ten-year policy bank bonds to 2.00% [46] - The report highlights a significant rise in yields for low-rated credit bonds, indicating a shift in market sentiment [46]

自市商务局获悉，元旦三天假期中，全市仅10大重点商贸监测企业就实现销售额2亿元，较去年同期增 长8.3%。据市 交通运输公共服务中心统计数据显示，三天假期，全市火车站、汽车站和 机场等主要对 外运输枢纽客流总量达到93.32万人次，日均31.11万人次，同比增长42.94%。 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a structural "small bull" market, with 4,110 out of 5,176 stocks showing positive growth, and 523 stocks rising over 100% [1] - However, 40 stocks fell over 30%, with 7 stocks declining more than 40% [1] Worst Performing Stocks - The largest decline was seen in Shijing Technology, which dropped 50.99% in 2025, primarily due to a significant decrease in completed orders after entering the photovoltaic sector [3] - Kangle Weishi ranked second with a decline of 49.97%, continuing to face losses since 2013, with a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4] - Longda Meishi experienced a 48.11% drop, affected by a prolonged downturn in the pig cycle and intensified competition in the prepared food sector [3] Financial Performance - Kangle Weishi reported a revenue of 1.2763 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 106.53%, but still faced a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan [4] - The food and beverage sector saw a 9.69% decline in 2025, marking its fifth consecutive year of losses, with a cumulative drop of over 50% since the peak in 2021 [8][10] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector showed signs of recovery in 2025, with an 11.94% increase, ending a four-year downtrend [10] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from macro policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with potential recovery in the white liquor and pre-processed food segments [10][11]

Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, marks a transition from preparation to implementation, with significant policy benefits expected in 2026, which is seen as a historic investment opportunity [1][2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port theme received a score of 61.25 based on eight dimensions, with 23 beneficiary stocks selected to form the Hainan Free Trade Port stock pool, which has outperformed the Wind All A index by 17.8% since the end of 2024 [4][3] Policy Foundation - The Hainan Free Trade Port is built on the "One Law and Three Core" principles, including "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island," which aims to enhance economic dynamism through a policy framework of "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems" [2][13] - The "zero tariff" policy has shifted from a positive list to a negative list management approach, expanding the range of goods eligible for zero tariffs [16] Investment Opportunities in Core Industries - The free flow of production factors is expected to reshape Hainan's industrial structure, with tourism, cross-border logistics and finance, and new productive forces in commercial aerospace and deep-sea economy identified as the primary beneficiaries of policy dividends [3][18] - The tourism sector is transitioning from "duty-free on departure" to a "whole island consumption" model, enhancing the attractiveness of Hainan for both domestic and international consumers [21][19] - Cross-border logistics and finance are positioned to benefit from higher levels of openness, with Hainan becoming a hub for offshore trade and digital trade [30][32] - New productive forces are expected to thrive in Hainan's unique geographical and policy environment, particularly in commercial aerospace and deep-sea technology [38][40] Hainan Free Trade Port Theme Evaluation - The theme evaluation score of 61.25 reflects high scores in policy effectiveness, support intensity, and industry coverage, indicating a favorable investment environment [45][46] - The evaluation criteria include market capitalization, policy effectiveness, support intensity, industry coverage, valuation levels, trading congestion, performance realization capability, and future growth potential [46][47] Hainan Free Trade Port Stock Pool - The stock pool is constructed based on three dimensions: tourism, cross-border logistics, and new productive forces, providing a selection of stocks that could benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port policies [48][49] - Specific sectors within the stock pool include duty-free retail, healthcare tourism, and experiential cultural tourism, which are expected to see significant growth [22][23][26] Hainan Free Trade Port Index - The Hainan Free Trade Port Index, based on the selected stocks, has shown a significant increase of 43.02% from December 31, 2024, to December 26, 2025, outperforming the Wind All A index by 17.8% [54][55]