本周各家券商策略关注两大焦点问题，一个是小微盘的拥挤度，另一个是6月的日历效应。 广发策略刘晨明团队称，从历史规律来看，主要红利资产在六月的胜率明显下降。09年至今，中证红利在6月表现较弱，跑赢沪深300和万得全A的概率分 别只有25%和12.5%，上涨概率只有37.5%，较5月明显下滑。究其原因，6月红利方向的负向日历效应可能和密集分红有关。按照除息日所在月份来看，6 月和7月是红利资产年报分红的密集时间段，部分资金可能会选择在分红前后兑现。 但对于长线投资者而言，逆风期可能是一个很好的介入时间点。一旦在分红时间点前后红利资产逆风期出现情绪的下滑甚至回到历史加仓位，那么就是很 好的在配置时点。 | 中证红利指数 | 相对沪深 300 超额收益 | 相对万得全 A 超额收益 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2009年6月 | -6.06 | -2.90 | | 2010年6月 | -1.81 | -1.74 | | 2011年6月 | -1.05 | -2.04 | | 2012年6月 | -0.77 | -2.16 | | 2013年6月 | -0.89 | -1.46 | | 2014年6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The futures index shows an oscillating pattern, suggesting an interval trading approach [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Index Data Tracking - On May 22, 2025, the closing prices of the four major futures index contracts showed mixed trends: IF fell 0.05%, IH rose 0.1%, IC fell 0.7%, and IM fell 0.81% [1] - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of futures indices rebounded, with IF's total trading volume decreasing by 5,644 lots, IH's increasing by 964 lots, IC's increasing by 18,347 lots, and IM's increasing by 52,241 lots [2] - Regarding positions, IF's total positions decreased by 1,805 lots, IH's increased by 817 lots, IC's increased by 7,568 lots, and IM's increased by 23,866 lots [2] b. Basis - Basis data for IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented in graphical form, showing the basis trends of the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts over a period [4] c. Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - For IF contracts, the long - positions of IF2506 decreased by 2,557 lots, IF2509 increased by 335 lots, and IF2512 decreased by 22 lots; the short - positions of IF2506 decreased by 2,713 lots, IF2509 increased by 78 lots, and IF2512 increased by 37 lots [5] - For IH contracts, the long - positions of IH2506 increased by 875 lots, IH2509 increased by 143 lots; the short - positions of IH2506 decreased by 68 lots, IH2509 increased by 205 lots [5] - For IC contracts, the long - positions of IC2506 increased by 3,227 lots, IC2509 increased by 788 lots, and IC2512 increased by 1,028 lots; the short - positions of IC2506 increased by 2,927 lots, IC2509 increased by 780 lots, and IC2512 increased by 1,500 lots [5] - For IM contracts, the long - positions of IM2506 increased by 11,520 lots, IM2509 increased by 3,538 lots; the short - positions of IM2506 increased by 11,222 lots, IM2509 increased by 3,445 lots [5] d. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [6] e. Important Drivers - The selling of US Treasuries has temporarily paused, the Nasdaq has rebounded with difficulty, the tax - cut bill has hit photovoltaic stocks, Bitcoin has reached a new high again during the session, and crude oil has fallen by more than 2% [6] - Fed Governor Waller said that the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if the tariff policy stabilizes around 10%, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 [6] f. A - share Market Summary - On the day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.22% at 3,380.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.72%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.96%, the North - bound 50 Index fell 6.15%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.48%, the Wind All - A Index fell 0.63%, the Wind A500 Index fell 0.28%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 0.3% [7] - A - share trading volume was 1.14 trillion yuan, down from 1.21 trillion yuan the previous day [7] - Military stocks led the gains, with Guoke Tiancheng and Sichuang Electronics hitting the daily limit; innovative drug concept stocks were active, with Sansheng Guojian having four consecutive daily limits; bank stocks bucked the trend and strengthened, with many stocks such as Everbright Bank and China CITIC Bank reaching new highs; pet economy concept stocks led the decline, with Yuanfei Pet hitting the daily limit down; beauty care concept stocks tumbled, with Marubi and Jieya Co., Ltd. falling more than 8%; solid - state battery concept stocks retreated, with many stocks falling more than 5% [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月22日 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 51 只股票涨停，有 18 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 1.29%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-4.04%。今日封板率 54%，较前日下降 19%，连板率 23%，较前日下降 10%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250521 两融余额为 18112 亿元，其中融资余额 17990 亿元，融券余额 122 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 8.2%。 折溢价：20250521 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是金融 ETF，ETF 折价较多的是 MSCIESGETF。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 14 亿元，20250521 当 日大宗交易成交金额为 16 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 5.43%，当日折价率 为 2.79%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 股指期货主 力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 1.44%, 3.16%, 8.75%，12.09%，当日上 证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 8.34%，处于近一年来 16%分位点，当 日沪深 300 股指期货 ...

3、热门概念：银行股逆势走强，浦发银行、江苏银行、成都银行等多只银行股创历史新高。 1、整体走势：市场全天震荡调整，创业板指尾盘一度跌超1%，北证50指数跌超6%。个股跌多涨少， 沪深京三市下跌个股超4400只，今日成交近1.14万亿。截止收盘沪指跌0.22%，深成指跌0.72%，创业板 指跌0.96%。 | 上证指数 | 3380.19 | -7.39 | -0.22% | 4383亿 | 0.85% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 深证成指 | 10219.62 | -74.60 | -0.72% | 66447 | -1.87% | | THESO | 1388.83 | -90.98 | -6.15% | 372亿 | 33.82% | | 万得全A | 5122.66 | -32.48 | -0.63% | 11397亿 | 2.01% | | 科创20 | 990.71 | -4.78 | -0.48% | 164亿 | 0.18% | | 创业板指 | 2045.57 | -19.82 | -0.96% | 2941亿 | -4.48% | | ...

Core Insights - The rise of "Guzi Economy" and pet economy in the A-share market reflects a shift in consumption preferences among Generation Z, with a population of 280 million and an annual consumption scale exceeding 5 trillion yuan [1][2] - The consumption behavior of this demographic is transitioning from "purchasing goods" to "purchasing meaning," indicating a deeper emotional and social transformation [1][3] Guzi Economy - The "Guzi Economy" refers to the market for goods related to anime, games, and other IPs, with a user base of nearly 460 million in 2021, projected to grow to 520 million by 2026 [2][8] - The emotional value drives the pricing of items, such as a limited edition badge from "Haikyuu!!" being sold for 72,000 yuan, highlighting the emotional projection fans have towards characters [2][3] - The industry chain involves IP developers creating content that is licensed to manufacturers and retailers, ultimately reaching consumers [2][3] Pet Economy - The pet economy is characterized by emotional compensation, with 150 million single individuals and 216 million elderly people treating pets as family members, willing to spend significantly on pet care [3][8] - The market for pet-related products and services is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with segments like smart devices and health management growing at an annual rate of over 25% [8][9] Consumer Behavior - Generation Z's consumption is heavily influenced by emotional value, with 62% of post-95s viewing consumption as a way to construct personal narratives [5][6] - Social media plays a crucial role in consumer behavior, with users sharing their collections and experiences, enhancing community engagement and driving secondary market growth [6][8] Market Trends - The "Guzi Economy" market is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, a 40.63% increase from 2023, with expectations to surpass 300 billion yuan by 2029 [8][9] - Companies like Pop Mart have seen significant growth, with overseas revenue increasing by 375%, indicating a successful expansion strategy [8][9] Conclusion - The emergence of the Guzi and pet economies signifies a broader transformation in consumer values, where emotional connection and social identity take precedence over traditional consumption metrics [10][11] - Companies must focus on creating meaningful experiences and emotional resonance to capture the attention of Generation Z consumers in this evolving market landscape [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with the North Stock Exchange 50 index dropping by 4.38%, indicating a broader market weakness despite some sectors showing resilience [1][3]. Market Analysis - The unexpected drop in the North Stock Exchange 50 index is attributed to a recent influx of capital into small-cap stocks, leading to a liquidity crunch as funds begin to flow back to larger boards [3]. - The overall market volume has decreased to 745.7 billion, reflecting a cautious sentiment among investors, with many funds possibly being diverted to other markets or defensive sectors [3]. Sector Performance - **Military Industry**: The military sector has shown strong performance, with stocks like Guoketecheng and Sichuang Electronics hitting the daily limit. This is driven by increased defense demand due to international tensions and a consistent rise in defense budgets [3]. - **Banking Sector**: Bank stocks have rebounded, led by Qingdao Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank. This is linked to recent regulatory changes favoring investor returns and improving asset quality expectations amid a weak economic recovery [4]. - **Innovative Pharmaceuticals**: The innovative drug sector remains active, with Sanofi's stock rising for four consecutive days, supported by favorable policies for medical innovation and positive clinical developments from certain companies [4]. Underperforming Sectors - **Solid-State Battery Concept**: This sector has seen significant declines, with stocks like Ningxin New Materials and Changhong Energy dropping over 5%. The uncertainty surrounding the commercialization of solid-state batteries has led to profit-taking [5]. - **Pet Economy**: The pet economy sector has also faced sharp declines, with stocks like Kexin Co. and Jieya Co. falling over 5%. Issues within the industry, such as direct consumer engagement through live streaming, have compressed profit margins and led to price wars [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain calm and avoid panic selling, as the current market may present buying opportunities, particularly in resilient sectors like military and banking [6]. - Monitoring capital flows is crucial; a rebound in trading volume above 1 trillion could indicate new capital entering the market, suggesting potential stabilization [6]. - Caution is advised against chasing high-flying sectors like solid-state batteries and the pet economy until clear signs of stabilization emerge [6].

市场早间震荡调整，北证50指数跌超5%，北交所266股中上涨个股仅20余只。银行股再度走强，浦发银 行、江苏银行、成都银行股价创历史新高。军工板块逆势活跃，国科天成、国睿科技、四创电子、烽火 电子等涨停。下跌方面，宠物经济等新消费方向走低，可靠股份跌超10%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市 超4400股飘绿，上午半天成交7444亿。午间收盘沪指平收，深成指跌0.28%，创业板跌0.44%。 ...

周三市场消息面较为平静，A 股以横盘整理为主，走势平稳，波动幅度狭窄。盘中多空相持，市场 重心在权重股走势偏强的作用下略有上移。但成交量能没有明显放大，而是保持在不到 1.2 万亿元的较 低水平，显示市场活跃度偏低，观望气氛较浓。从技术面看，上证指数布林线位于中偏强位置，KDJ 指标在三分之二分位，总体以中性偏强震荡为主，只是能量指标滞后，量价关系上有所欠缺。未来，如 果大盘要向上突破，成交量应率先放大到 1.5 万亿元以上，这将是观察市场是否变盘的一个直观信号。 风险提示：消息面或海外市场表现超预期，流动性的不确定性。 展望后市：短线尚未出现明显的变盘信号及其预期，A 股行情大概率维持现有节奏，以指数窄幅波 动，成交保持低位，热点快速轮动为主。 从热点看，短线继续高频轮动。周三贵金属、珠宝首饰领涨，周二也是珠宝首饰涨幅第一，美容护 理、宠物经济等相关板块涨幅居前。事件性因素驱动为主。而此前已有表现的化纤化工、消费电子等跌 幅居前。题材刺激，资金推动，快速轮动的特点较为鲜明。 ...

A股3400近在咫尺，高盛增持中国adr今天的北证50再创历史新高，那么未来A股怎么走？能不能站上 3400？和讯投顾张平分析，今天这A股跟电风扇没有什么区别，也是个概念，轮番滚了一圈，你别管是 从煤炭，对吧？创新药还是指这个电力今天都冲了，最后呢尾盘黄金开始往上冲，但是整个市场超过 3600个股票出现下跌，热点特别乱，跌的多涨的少，只说明一个问题，大家心态不稳，为什么怎么体 现？很简单。我们看这个 A股指数的时候，一般是看k线实体大小，也就是你现在看到这个这就是你我 鼠标这个位置啊就是k线，它实体大的时候动力就强，它实体小的时候，也就是说中间那方块的部分， 实体小的时候它动力就弱，你可以观察到这么一个现象，如果基础动力强，也就是说底部涨停那种，它 容易出现惯性上升。 就跟这一波一样。啊这个位置不就是之前是没有缺口什么的，上升动力就空间就不大了。对吧？你向上 的缺口啊你记住不补是好的，向下的缺口三天补了就能往上，那才是好的。所以老鹰还是希望在这个位 置呢窄幅震荡，不要跌多了，然后在这个区域呢形成新的点，只要一刺激，这位置应该就能突破过去。 所以短线来看属于弱势震荡，但中期依旧看好。所以呢短线大家呢嗯可以换一换 ...

2025.5.21 市场逻辑精选 逻辑红宝书 2025-05-21 特别提示：下文涉及的题材或公司，内容罗列和篇幅长短，与后续涨跌无关，亦均非进行 推荐，仅作研究辅助。投资者应自主决策，注意风险。 一、市场热点 新型消费：多行业释放消费新活力 ◇驱动：2025 年 5 月 20 日，港股泡泡玛特收盘股价 208.2 港元/股，盘中市值突 破 2800 亿，续创历史新高；谷子经济、宠物经济等年轻人消费新宠有望迎来产 业投资升级。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 ◇谷子经济： 1）《哪吒之魔童闹海》等优质 IP 持续赋能下，谷子经济新品持续拓展，机构预 计后续头部卡牌商卡游港股上市将带动产业投资机会再次升级。 2）2024 年国内市场规模 1689 亿，同比增长 41%，预计 2025 年将突破 200 ...