Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that PVC will run in a volatile manner. The supply - side PVC开工率 continues to decline, downstream demand is weak, social inventory is high, and although the commodity market sentiment is boosted, the production decline is limited, and the current is the traditional off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23% and is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The downstream开工率 decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the orders for downstream products are poor. Last week, export orders decreased slightly, with lower prices in the Indian market and limited demand. CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory increased slightly and is still high. From January to November 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased, but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua has recently started trial production. The anti - involution sentiment has further increased, and the commodity market sentiment has been boosted, but the decline in production is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and ran in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 4,772 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,822 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,805 yuan/ton, up 0.33% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position decreased by 23,231 lots to 923,530 lots [2] Basis - On December 31, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,500 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,805 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 305 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by devices such as Salt Lake Magnesium Industry and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC开工率 decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand side: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of December 25, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 1.0611 million tons, 31.92% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory is still high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report predicts that PVC will fluctuate. Although the anti - "involution" sentiment in the commodity market is rising, the current decline in PVC production is limited, and it is the traditional demand off - season in December. After the spot price rises, the market transaction is weak. With high inventory and limited demand, PVC is expected to move in a volatile manner [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points, and the downstream product orders are poor. In terms of exports, PVC is sold at a lower price, and last week's export orders decreased slightly. The prices in the Indian market are low, and the demand is limited. The CFR in January from Formosa Plastics in Taiwan remained flat in China, but decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton in India and Southeast Asia respectively. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to November 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased, but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua has recently started trial production. The anti - "involution" sentiment in the commodity market is rising, and the comprehensive profit margin of chlor - alkali has decreased, but the current decline in production is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,748 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,810 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.15%. The position volume decreased by 22,446 lots to 946,761 lots [2] Basis - On December 30, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,500 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,810 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 310 yuan/ton, weakening by 25 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by plants such as Salt Lake Magnesium Industry and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.13 percentage points to 77.23%, and the operating rate continued to decline, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year for Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year for Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year for Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year for Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] Demand - The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the new construction area of residential housing decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%; the completion area of residential housing decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of December 21, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost the sales of commercial housing [5] Inventory - As of the week of December 25, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.43% week - on - week to 1.0611 million tons, an increase of 31.92% compared with the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high [6]

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-30 下游跟进乏力，氯碱震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4777元/吨（-55）；华东基差-277元/吨（+55）;华南基差-227元/吨（+55）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4500元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4550元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-110元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-760元/吨（+226）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-336元/吨（+134）；PVC出口利润-16.1美元/吨（-4.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-2.2）；PVC社会库存51.4万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率77.46%（+0.45%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.73%（-3.33%）；PVC开工率75.42%（-0.70%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量80.7万吨（+4.5）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2232元/吨（-36）；山东32%液碱基差-20元/吨（+30）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价708元/吨（-2）；山东5 ...

【现货消息】 12 月 29 日周末淄博市场走货不佳，低高度碱价格同步下调，其他地区虽挂牌价格变化不大，但成交也 有优惠空间。高度碱内外贸订单寥寥，部分企业也继续下调。 从基本面看，烧碱仍是高产量、高库存格局。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压 制对烧碱的囤货，同时非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口承压，整体需求难有支撑。供应端看，冬季本身 是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，烧碱供应压力较大，企业面临高库存的压力，上周烧碱去库，但春节 前仍面临降价去库的压力。 期货研究 烧碱：关注 1 月交割压力 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2232 710 2219 -13 2025 年 12 月 30 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 整体看，厂家不减产，烧碱反弹空间或有限。01 合约烧碱仓单量或较多，关注 1 月交割压力。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully completed the construction and installation of equipment for two major projects, marking a significant step in its transition towards high-end new materials and enhancing its operational capabilities [1] Group 1: Project Details - The "45,000 tons/year high-end new materials project" and the "500 tons/year hexachlorocyclotriphosphazene and 500 tons/year benzyl chloride ammonium industrialization project" have completed all necessary preparations for trial production [1] - Both projects have recently commenced trial production, indicating readiness for operational activities [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - These projects align with industry policies and the company's development plans, contributing to the diversification of the industrial system within the park [1] - Achieving full production capacity will enhance the company's ongoing operational capabilities and strengthen its resilience against risks, facilitating the transition from traditional chlor-alkali chemicals to high-end new materials [1]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Bay Chemical Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for the first public offering of stocks and listing, which has been accepted by the Qingdao Securities Regulatory Bureau, with a filing date of December 23, 2025, and the counseling institution being CITIC Securities [1][2]. Group 1: Company Background - Qingdao Bay Chemical was established in 1999, focusing on the research, production, and sales of chlor-alkali chemicals, organic chemical raw materials, high polymer new materials, and inorganic silicon products, with main products including PVC, polystyrene, and caustic soda [4]. - The company's major shareholder is Qingdao Bay Group Co., Ltd., holding a 62% stake, while the actual controller is the Qingdao State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2019 to 2022 was as follows: 2019: 703.78 million, 2020: 605.31 million, 2021: 1.30 billion, and 2022 (first half): 696.23 million [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company for the same periods was: 2019: 48.49 million, 2020: 30.12 million, 2021: 207.67 million, and 2022 (first half): 100.58 million [4]. - The total assets as of June 30, 2022, were 1.33 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 63.28% [5]. Group 3: Previous IPO Attempts - The company previously applied for an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 2022, which was later withdrawn in June 2025 due to changes in market conditions [3][6]. - The previous IPO plan included projects such as a 3×7.5 million tons/year epoxy chloropropane green circular economy project and a 15 million tons/year epoxy resin project, with a total fundraising target of 3 billion [6][7]. Group 4: Regulatory Issues - During the previous IPO review, the company was under regulatory warning from the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to incomplete disclosures regarding employee stock ownership and inaccuracies in accounting for various financial items [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the basic chemical industry, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors such as TDI and synthetic resins [1][2]. Core Insights - The TDI export volume reached a historical high in November, with 56,500 tons exported, significantly exceeding previous years' totals, and is projected to continue growing [2]. - The China Synthetic Resin Association has called for the regulation of the polyoxymethylene industry to address structural supply-demand imbalances, with projected production capacity reaching 1.51 million tons per year against a demand of only 950,000 tons by 2025 [2]. - The chemical sector overall has shown strong performance, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rising by 5.41% this week, outperforming other indices [1][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.88%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.9%, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors in the chemical industry this week included membrane materials (12.18%), synthetic resins (8.23%), and phosphate fertilizers (6.5%) [1][13]. Sub-sector Summaries TDI - November TDI exports reached 56,500 tons, with a cumulative export of 506,300 tons from January to November, marking a 56.2% year-on-year increase [2]. - The average export price for TDI in October was $1,527 per ton, with a total export value of $67.1 million [2]. Polyoxymethylene - The industry faces challenges due to a projected capacity of 1.51 million tons against a demand of only 950,000 tons, leading to potential oversupply issues [2]. Tires - Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on growth opportunities in the tire sector [2]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to benefit from environmental policies limiting supply, coupled with increasing demand from the new energy sector [4]. Vitamins - The market for vitamins is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to unforeseen circumstances affecting production [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on December 24, 2025. The prices of most products remained stable compared to the previous day. For the market, it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines due to the intense long - short game [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Product Price and Market Conditions - **Raw Salt**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions remained unchanged at 235, 260, and 180 respectively [1]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 250 and 3415 respectively [1]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions remained unchanged at 100, 250, and - 100 respectively [1]. - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The domestic market was slow. Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remained unchanged at 2219, 2563, and 1150 respectively. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 690 - 800 yuan/ton [1]. - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm in Shandong was not high. Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remained unchanged at 2280, 1330, and 1300 respectively. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1120 - 1210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Southwest regions remained unchanged at 3000, 2650, 2750, and 3375 respectively [1]. - **PVC**: Prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 3450 and 5550 respectively [1]. Price Difference and Profit - **Futures Main Contract Basis**: The closing price was 2250, with a change of 31 compared to the previous day [1]. - **50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda Price Difference**: In Shandong, it remained unchanged [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Caustic Soda Price Difference**: In Guangdong, it decreased by 31 to 16 [1]. - **50% Caustic Soda Regional Price Difference**: The price difference between Guangdong and Shandong remained unchanged at 515 [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes Regional Price Difference**: The price difference between Southwest and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 250, and that between Southwest and Shandong remained unchanged at 700 [1]. - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: In Shandong, it remained unchanged at - 70; in the Northwest, it decreased by 31 to 368 [1]. - **Electricity Price**: In Shandong, it remained unchanged at 0.66; in Inner Mongolia, it remained unchanged at 0.38 [1]. Operation Suggestion It is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines due to the intense long - short game [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant. The downstream开工 drops slightly, and the export orders remain resilient. The overall supply - demand improvement is limited. [3] - The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. The spot price is mainly stable, and the demand for low - priced goods improves slightly. The inventory pressure in Shandong is partially relieved, but the national caustic soda inventory accumulates slightly. [4] Group 3: Summary of Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,738 yuan/ton (+147), the East China basis is - 298 yuan/ton (-67), and the South China basis is - 288 yuan/ton (-97) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotes 4,440 yuan/ton (+80), and the South China calcium carbide method quotes 4,450 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (-50), the calcium carbide profit is - 134 yuan/ton (-50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 0.9 US dollars/ton (+4.7) [1] - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.01% (-2.12%), the PVC ethylene method operation rate is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the PVC operation rate is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,219 yuan/ton (+38), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 31 yuan/ton (-38) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 246.96 yuan/ton (+130.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 340.39 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.00% (-1.11%), the dyeing and printing operation rate in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Summary of Market Analysis PVC - Macro factors: The "15th Five - Year Plan" and the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost the demand expectation of PVC. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - Supply: One more enterprise conducts maintenance this week, and some calcium carbide method enterprises continue to reduce production. The overall supply decreases slightly, but the supply end is still abundant as all new PVC installations in 2025 have been put into production [3] - Demand: The downstream operation drops slightly, with pipes remaining stable and profiles and films decreasing. The downstream purchases at low prices, and the trading volume is light when the futures price rebounds. The export orders remain resilient before the double festivals [3] - Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit at the upstream PVC end is repaired to some extent, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide price drops, resulting in a loss in production profit, and the semi - coke price also drops slightly, with the profit end remaining in a loss state [3] - Other factors: The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price. The news of overseas factory closures or bankruptcy applications supports the market sentiment to a certain extent [3] Caustic Soda - Market trend: The caustic soda futures price rebounds due to the anti - "involution" sentiment, with a slight improvement in supply - demand [4] - Supply: The supply - end operation rate drops slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is still positive, and the high - level operation of caustic soda is maintained. However, the liquid chlorine price in Shandong is expected to drop in late December, and the cost support may strengthen [4] - Demand: The alumina factory operation is relatively stable, the purchase price is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens. The demand for low - priced goods improves marginally, but the supply - end pressure remains as there is no reduction in supply [4] Group 5: Summary of Strategies PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro situation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [6]

Core Viewpoint - Chlor-alkali Chemical, a leading domestic caustic soda enterprise, is intensifying its focus on green chemistry by investing in a comprehensive waste salt utilization project, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the industry and expand into the South China and Southeast Asia markets [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - Chlor-alkali Chemical plans to increase its investment in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Guangxi Huayi Chlor-alkali Chemical Co., by 893 million yuan to support a 2.975 billion yuan advanced materials waste salt utilization project [1] - The project will include production facilities for 300,000 tons/year of caustic soda, 250,000 tons/year of vinyl chloride, and 300,000 tons/year of polyvinyl chloride, with a construction period of 24 months and an expected return on investment of 7.84% [1][2] - The total investment of 2.975 billion yuan will be funded through the new capital injection and self-raised funds, with the registered capital of Guangxi Huayi Chlor-alkali increasing from 3.13575 billion yuan to 4.02839 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Circular Economy and Market Demand - The project aims to achieve waste resource utilization by using waste salt generated from acetaminophen and epoxy resin projects as raw materials for caustic soda production, forming a circular economy chain [2] - There is a strong demand for caustic soda in the South China region, particularly from the alumina, paper, and new energy industries, indicating a supply gap that the project aims to fill [2] Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Financial Performance - The project is a key part of Chlor-alkali Chemical's strategy to optimize its "Shanghai + Guangxi" dual-base layout, enhancing resource allocation and cost savings while expanding its operational scale [3] - As of September 2025, Guangxi Huayi Chlor-alkali's total assets were 7.690 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 56.61%, indicating a reasonable financial position within the industry [3] - The company's revenue has shown a slight increase from 6.664 billion yuan in 2021 to 8.185 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit has fluctuated, dropping from 1.772 billion yuan to 787 million yuan during the same period [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - Despite facing operational challenges, Chlor-alkali Chemical has been generous in returning value to shareholders, distributing cash dividends totaling 2.297 billion yuan since its listing in 1992, with a high payout ratio of 3322.1% [4]