证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 静观其变，谋而后动 ——2025年5月资产配置报告 ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 HWABAO SECURITIES 2025年5月8日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） 宏观主线梳理 宏观主线梳理 关税缓和信号显现，但行业关税仍存变数： 内容目录 海外宏观 Ø 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 关税对经济影响逐渐显现，既定政策加快落地 Ø 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 u 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算萎缩至-0.3%，主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的拖累。后续美国经济走势 取决于关税谈判的进展（商品消费），以及减税政策的支持（私人投资）。 u 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量，对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致匹配—— 即全球基准税率降至10%，中国维持约60%高位。 u 对华关税政策方面，特朗普表示"对中国达成 ...

Group 1 - The overall holding value of northbound funds reached 2.24 trillion RMB as of March 31, 2025, an increase of approximately 25.7 billion RMB compared to the end of Q4 2024, accounting for about 5.5% of the free float market value of A-shares [1][8][11] - Long-term allocation funds from foreign banks held 1.71 trillion RMB, increasing by about 10.8 billion RMB, representing 4.2% of the free float market value, while short-term trading funds from foreign brokerages held 0.38 trillion RMB, increasing by approximately 11.2 billion RMB, accounting for 0.93% [1][8][11] Group 2 - Northbound funds showed a significant increase in allocation to momentum, liquidity, and growth styles in Q1, reversing the previous quarter's reduction in these areas [2][17][22] - The overall style preferences of northbound funds included overweight positions in market capitalization, momentum, volatility, profitability, growth, and leverage, while underweight positions were noted in beta, BP, and liquidity [2][20][25] Group 3 - The highest holding value proportion of northbound funds was in the consumer sector at 6.9%, followed by financials at 6.0%, with a slight increase in the cyclical sector [3][28][32] - Northbound funds were overweight in consumer and financial sectors compared to the overall A-share market, while they were underweight in stability, technology, and cyclical sectors [3][38][42] Group 4 - The top five industries for northbound funds in terms of holding proportion changes were automotive, retail, consumer services, machinery, and electronics, while the bottom five included utilities, financials, telecommunications, real estate, and construction [3][42][45] - Northbound funds were overweight in industries such as power equipment and new energy, food and beverage, home appliances, banking, and automotive, while underweight in computer, basic chemicals, machinery, defense, and electronics [3][51][52] Group 5 - In terms of index allocation, northbound funds showed a decrease in holding proportions for the Shanghai 50 (-0.5%), CSI 300 (-0.3%), and CSI 500 (-0.2%), while there was a slight increase for the CSI 1000 (+0.1%) [4][58][62] - Northbound funds were overweight in the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 compared to the overall A-share market, while underweight in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [4][67]

Group 1 - The Carbon Neutral ETF Taikang (560560) showed a strong performance from April 21 to 25, with a continuous upward trend, attracting market attention [1] - On April 29, the Carbon Neutral ETF Taikang (560560) experienced adjustments, with mixed performance among index constituent stocks, including notable gains from companies like Xian Dao Intelligent, New Zhou Bang, Jin Lang Technology, and De Ye Shares [1] - According to Zhongyuan Securities, the electricity consumption growth rate is projected to be 2.5% in Q1 2025, with a significant recovery in March, where total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] Group 2 - In the wind power sector, recent tariff events do not alter the positive development trend of the domestic wind power industry, with major wind turbine manufacturers like Goldwind Technology, Envision Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy having low business exposure in the U.S. market [2] - The domestic wind power industry chain has a localization rate exceeding 90%, with strong competitive advantages in upstream materials such as rare earth permanent magnets and wind power components [2] - The Carbon Neutral ETF Taikang (560560) closely tracks the CSI Mainland Low Carbon Economy Theme Index, which includes companies involved in clean energy generation, energy conversion and storage, clean production and consumption, and waste treatment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The electricity consumption growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 is projected at 2.5%, with a notable recovery in March [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - In March 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to March 2025, the total electricity consumption was 2,384.6 billion kWh, also reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with the primary industry showing the highest growth rate [1][3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the industrial electricity generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 22,699 billion kWh [3]. - The share of thermal power generation was 67.52%, while wind power accounted for 12.45%, with hydro and nuclear power at 9.84% and 5.17%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Coal Market Overview - In March 2025, the industrial raw coal production was 44.1 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [4]. - The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 660 RMB/ton, down 2.22% in April 2025 [4]. - Coal inventory at northern ports was 31.12 million tons as of April 25, 2025, with slight fluctuations observed [5]. Group 3: Natural Gas Market Overview - Natural gas production showed stable growth, with an output of 66 billion cubic meters in the first quarter of 2025, up 4.3% year-on-year [6]. - Natural gas imports decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, totaling 29.42 million tons from January to March 2025 [6]. - The price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4,481.6 RMB/ton as of April 20, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.51% [6]. Group 4: Hydropower Situation - As of April 24, 2025, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir were 8,000 and 8,300 cubic meters per second, respectively, indicating a decrease in inflow compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. Group 5: Regional Electricity Supply and Demand - In March 2025, Henan Province's total electricity consumption was 4.259 billion kWh, up 3.33% year-on-year [8]. - The total electricity generation in Henan Province for March 2025 was 30.092 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.23% [8].

- The diffusion index model triggered a right-side buy signal at the close of trading on Tuesday, April 25, 2025 [6][14][33] - The first threshold method triggered a full position signal at the close of trading on April 7, 2025 [36] - The delayed threshold method gave an open position signal at the close of trading on April 22, 2025 [40] - The dual moving average method gave a short position signal at the close of trading on March 12, 2025 [41] Model Testing Results - Diffusion index model, weekly return 2.52% [43] - First threshold method, signal value 0.0225 [36] - Delayed threshold method, signal value not specified [40] - Dual moving average method, signal value not specified [41] Quantitative Factors and Construction - Factor name: Momentum factor; Construction idea: Based on the stock's price momentum; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.221, historical average -0.003 [5][13][27] - Factor name: Logarithmic market capitalization factor; Construction idea: Based on the logarithm of the stock's market capitalization; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Factor name: Non-linear market capitalization factor; Construction idea: Based on the non-linear transformation of the stock's market capitalization; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Factor name: Single-quarter ROE factor; Construction idea: Based on the stock's return on equity for a single quarter; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.19, historical average 0.025 [5][13][27] - Factor name: PE TTM reciprocal factor; Construction idea: Based on the reciprocal of the stock's price-to-earnings ratio trailing twelve months; Construction process: Calculated using the rank IC method, weekly rank IC value 0.189, historical average 0.02 [5][13][27] Factor Testing Results - Momentum factor, weekly rank IC value 0.221, historical average -0.003 [5][13][27] - Logarithmic market capitalization factor, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Non-linear market capitalization factor, weekly rank IC value 0.196, historical average -0.032 [5][13][27] - Single-quarter ROE factor, weekly rank IC value 0.19, historical average 0.025 [5][13][27] - PE TTM reciprocal factor, weekly rank IC value 0.189, historical average 0.02 [5][13][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's conventional power sources show stable profitability, with ongoing project reserves providing growth potential. The financial performance for 2024 indicates a slight revenue decline of 1% year-on-year, but a significant net profit increase of 75.3% year-on-year, driven by substantial investment gains [1][9]. - The company is well-positioned with a rich pipeline of projects across various power sources, ensuring continued performance growth. The total installed capacity is 111.7 million kW, with conventional power (coal and gas) accounting for 66.8% [4][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company expects revenues of CNY 179.18 billion in 2024, with a projected net profit of CNY 9.83 billion. The EPS is forecasted to be CNY 0.55, reflecting a 75.5% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - **Growth Rates**: Revenue is projected to grow at rates of 5.1%, 3.8%, and 2.3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while net profit is expected to decline by 23.9% in 2025 before recovering with growth rates of 16.4% and 15.2% in the following years [1][9]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The report highlights a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% for 2024, with a projected P/E ratio of 8.5 for the same year, indicating a favorable valuation [1][9]. Operational Data - **Power Generation**: In 2024, the company’s coal, gas, and hydropower generation is expected to be 366.17 billion kWh, 2.35 billion kWh, and 59.468 billion kWh respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.3%, +22.49%, and +7.93% [2][3]. - **Investment Gains**: The company reported investment income of CNY 7.33 billion in 2024, a remarkable increase of 363% year-on-year, primarily from the sale of a 50% stake in a subsidiary [1][9]. Project Pipeline - The company has a robust project pipeline with ongoing and approved projects, including 7.64 million kW of coal and 4.9235 million kW of hydropower under construction, which will contribute to future earnings growth [4][9].

证券研究报告|公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 16 日 川投能源（600674.SH） 来水改善助力业绩增长，投资收益略有波动 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,482 | 1,609 | 1,804 | 1,971 | 1,988 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 4.4 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 0.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,400 | 4,508 | 5,132 | 5,505 | 5,790 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 25.2 | 2.4 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 5.2 | | ROE（%） | 11.7 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.90 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 1.19 | | P/E（倍） | 18.5 | 18.0 | 15.8 | 14.8 | 14.0 | | P/B（倍） | 2. ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 在当前市场中，分析师报告数量众多，以行业报告为例，每周通常有超过 500 篇的报告。而阅读这些报告通常要花费大量的时间和成本。针对这一 需求，我们利用 DeepSeek-V3 大模型的总结能力对分析师行业报告进行智 能总结和整合，提炼出核心观点和关键信息。 利用大模型衡量景气度 行业研究报告通常提供分析师对行业趋势的深入分析与总体评价，但其应 用性较弱，主要有两个原因。首先，行业评级是行业研报中的标准化输出， 但其并非连续指标，通常仅分为三类，缺乏足够的区分度。因此，分析师 细微的态度和用词变化可能不会导致行业评级的调整。其次，不同证券公 司采用的行业分类标准并不一致，这些差异使得行业比较变得困难。 大模型普及之前，并不容易解决这些问题，而大模型的应用可能为此提供 更有效的支持。为了深入挖掘行业研报的信息，我们对其进行了进一步的 整理与标准化。我们构造了一个能够提取行业研报所涉具体中信一级、二 级行业名称以及对应行业景气度的提示词，并使用 DeepSeek-V3 模型，将 研报摘要作为输入文本得到该研报所属行业、景气度等指标结果。 最新行业研报文本景气度 我 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry, with a PE ratio of 20.80, indicating a favorable outlook based on expected industry performance and valuation levels [21]. Core Insights - The communication industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in February 2025, with a growth of 2.67% compared to 2.16% for the Shanghai index [17]. - The AI model expansion is accelerating cloud computing adoption, with global cloud infrastructure spending expected to reach $321.3 billion in 2024, driven by AI applications [18]. - The enterprise-level ICT market in China is projected to grow by 11.7% year-on-year in 2024, with key growth drivers being cloud computing, AI, and computing power deployment [19]. - The RISC-V ecosystem in China is rapidly developing, with the market expected to grow from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $25 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 47.9% [29]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The communication industry is expected to benefit from the integration of AI technologies, enhancing cloud service capabilities and reducing costs for telecom operators [21]. - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance in February 2025, with a 12.28% increase, indicating robust demand and recovery in the sector [26]. Market Trends - The gaming industry is experiencing growth, with a steady increase in market size and player engagement, supported by high-quality game releases and favorable policies [34]. - The food and beverage sector saw a 4.5% increase in February 2025, with significant growth in sub-sectors like liquor and dairy products, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [39]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on telecom operators, AI computing, and AI mobile sectors as key investment opportunities, particularly companies like China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile [21]. - In the gaming sector, companies with strong product pipelines and R&D capabilities, such as KYE Network and Perfect World, are recommended for investment [36]. - The food and beverage sector presents opportunities in white liquor, health products, and snacks, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [41].

Group 1: Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index increased by 1.31%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which decreased by 2.22% [2][18] - The macro policy encourages the development of the new energy vehicle industry, with significant sales growth in January 2025 [18] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested based on industry prosperity and market trends [18] Group 2: Chemical Industry - The CITIC basic chemical industry index fell by 0.27%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 2.22%, indicating better performance than the benchmark [3][21] - 26 sub-industries within the chemical sector increased, with modified plastics and electronic chemicals leading the gains [21] - Investment focus is recommended on potassium fertilizer, polyester filament, and organic silicon industries due to their growth potential [21][24] Group 3: New Materials - The new materials index decreased by 0.46%, slightly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [4][26] - New materials are supported by national policies as a strategic emerging industry, with growth driven by advancements in commercial aerospace and robotics [26][27] - Investment suggestions include thermal barrier coatings and rare earth permanent magnet materials [27] Group 4: Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 0.38%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.60 percentage points [5][29] - The paper industry is expected to benefit from rising prices of imported pulp and government policies to stimulate consumption [29][31] - The home furnishing sector is showing signs of recovery, with potential growth driven by promotional activities [29][31] Group 5: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index fell by 0.91%, but still outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.31 percentage points [6][34] - The pig farming sector is expected to see improved profitability in 2024 due to reduced supply and cost pressures [37] - Investment focus is suggested on the pig farming and pet food sectors as they approach performance turning points [34][37] Group 6: Securities - The securities index fell by 2.97%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.75 percentage points [9][42] - Despite recent declines, the securities sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle, with average valuations remaining below historical levels [42][43] - Continuous attention to the securities sector is recommended as it maintains a structural market [42] Group 7: Machinery - The CS machinery sector decreased by 1.84%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.38 percentage points [10][44] - Investment suggestions include traditional engineering machinery and high-speed rail equipment due to stable fundamentals [44][48] - The sector is experiencing adjustments in AI and robotics themes, indicating potential volatility [48] Group 8: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry rose by 1.01%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [11][50] - The sector is experiencing significant transaction volume, with expectations for continued growth in global photovoltaic installations [50][51] - Investment focus is recommended on leading companies in the photovoltaic supply chain, particularly in polysilicon and module manufacturing [51] Group 9: Power and Utilities - The power and utilities index fell by 1.03%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.19 percentage points [12] - The sector is poised for growth due to increasing electricity demand from new energy systems and market reforms [12] - Investment suggestions include large hydro and nuclear power companies with strong dividend yields [12] Group 10: Media - The media sector fell by 8.06%, significantly underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [13] - The impact of AI on the media industry is highlighted, with potential for growth in gaming and content creation [13][14] - Long-term investment focus is suggested on gaming companies benefiting from AI integration [14]