Core Viewpoint - Adidas reported significant losses in Q2 due to the Trump administration's global tariff policies, warning of potential cost increases of up to €200 million (approximately $231 million) for its U.S. sales in the second half of the year [1] Financial Performance - Adidas' Q2 net sales grew by 2.2% year-on-year to €5.95 billion, slightly below Wall Street's average expectation of €6 billion, impacted by approximately €300 million in adverse currency effects [2] - The company's inventory increased by 16% to €5.26 billion as a result of early procurement of sports products before the tariffs took effect [1] Market Outlook - Adidas maintained its full-year guidance, expecting sales growth in the high single digits and operating profit between €1.7 billion and €1.8 billion, which is stronger than market expectations [1] - The company faces challenges from U.S. tariffs on exports from its major sourcing countries, Vietnam and Indonesia, which account for about 27% and 19% of its product scale, respectively [2] Competitive Landscape - Nike, a major competitor, reported a significant decline in net profit by 86% to $211 million, indicating the severe impact of tariffs on international sports brands [2] - Analysts from JPMorgan view the 2026 World Cup, co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, as a potential catalyst for sales growth for Nike and other sports brands, predicting a recovery in operating profit margins [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a slight improvement in China's retail sales, with an expected growth rate of 4%-5% for 2025, establishing a new normal driven by government subsidies for durable goods [1][4]. Core Insights - Essential goods are expected to see relatively higher growth, while discretionary spending is significantly impacted [1][4]. - The consumer price index (CPI) shows a positive correlation with consumer stock valuations, with overall consumer stock P/E ratios currently low due to deflationary pressures [1][6]. - Emerging consumer companies have achieved remarkable growth, with some stocks rising over 150%, while the worst-performing stocks have seen declines of 9%-30% [1][8]. - The liquor market faces challenges in 2025, with weak enterprise demand and government controls affecting wholesale prices [1][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Trends - Retail sales in China are projected to improve slightly in 2025, with growth between 4% and 5%, supported by government subsidies for durable goods [1][4]. Impact of Raw Material Prices - Rising prices of raw materials like gold and palm oil may pressure margins for noodle and food companies, while many essential goods companies could benefit from lower raw material costs [1][5]. Consumer Stock Valuation and Growth Outlook - The CPI is closely linked to consumer stock valuations, with current P/E ratios being low. Earnings growth for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be in the low single digits to 10% range [1][6]. Market Dynamics and Investment Flow - There has been a significant increase in southbound capital inflow into the Greater China consumer sector, which has positively impacted market indices [1][7]. Performance of New vs. Traditional Consumption - There is a stark performance disparity between new and traditional consumption sectors, with emerging companies showing exceptional growth while traditional sectors lag [1][8]. Liquor Market Challenges - The liquor market is expected to remain challenging in 2025, with weak demand and government regulations impacting wholesale prices [1][10]. Beer and Spirits Industry Challenges - The beer and spirits industries face multiple challenges, including fluctuating sales and pressure from restaurant demand [1][11]. Dairy Market Conditions - The raw milk market is currently in a surplus cycle, expected to end by the end of 2025, potentially leading to a slight price recovery in early 2026 [2][12]. Food and Beverage Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector shows varied performance, with noodle businesses under pressure from palm oil prices and a shift towards healthier beverage options [2][14]. Consumer Preferences - Consumers prioritize product quality and cost-effectiveness when choosing brands, indicating a shift in purchasing behavior [2][15]. Restaurant Sector Developments - The restaurant sector, represented by companies like Yum China, is navigating challenges but is focusing on service quality and efficient supply chains to improve profitability [2][16]. Large Appliances Market - The large appliances sector benefits from government subsidies and export opportunities, but faces uncertainty as subsidy effects diminish [2][17]. Jewelry Market Trends - The jewelry market is evolving, with emerging brands focusing on high-end fixed-price gold products gaining popularity [2][21]. Duty-Free Sales Performance - Duty-free sales in Hainan are stable, but meaningful growth will depend on macroeconomic improvements and competitive dynamics [2][24]. Cosmetics Industry Dynamics - The cosmetics industry is experiencing pressure from consumers seeking value, but growth is expected to stabilize as pricing pressures ease [2][25].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The trade negotiations between the US and the EU have reached a critical moment, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set to meet President Trump to discuss trade issues [1][2] - Both sides are cautiously optimistic about reaching a framework agreement, despite ongoing intense discussions regarding tariffs on EU steel, automobiles, and pharmaceutical products [2][22] Group 2: Puma's Financial Performance - Puma has warned of expected losses this year due to weak sales and the impact of US tariffs, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, which fell over 19% on July 25 [4][5] - The company's second-quarter sales were reported at €1.94 billion (approximately ¥16.3 billion), falling short of analyst expectations, with North American sales down 9.1% and European sales down 3.9% [6] - Puma has revised its full-year sales forecast to a "low double-digit percentage" decline (approximately 10%-13%), compared to a previous expectation of low single-digit growth (around 3%-6%) [8] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs - The company anticipates that tariffs will negatively impact its gross profit by approximately €80 million (around ¥670 million) in 2025 [11] - Puma's new CEO acknowledged internal issues and emphasized the need for a comprehensive brand overhaul to address ongoing challenges [12] - The company has faced a cumulative stock price drop of over 53% since the beginning of the year due to a series of negative news [13] Group 4: Broader Industry Challenges - The ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to continue affecting the industry and Puma's performance significantly through 2025 [10][14] - The company previously indicated that the industry would likely see price increases due to tariffs, but noted that stronger brands in the US market would lead the price hikes [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Puma's stock price plummeted by 19% due to warnings of annual sales decline and potential losses in 2025, alongside quarterly sales falling short of expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a decrease in annual sales and expects to incur losses in 2025 [1] - Quarterly sales figures were below market expectations, indicating ongoing challenges in brand momentum [1] Group 2: External Factors - The performance is adversely affected by U.S. tariffs on imported products, which could lead to a reduction in gross profit of approximately €80 million by 2025 [1] - Despite efforts to optimize the supply chain and adjust pricing, the impact of tariffs remains significant [1]

Core Insights - Le Coq Sportif, a historic French sportswear brand, has been sold to Swiss-French entrepreneur Dan Mamane for approximately €70 million (around 590 million RMB) [2] - The sale aims to ensure the brand's continuity and provide hope for its approximately 300 employees in France [2] Financial Situation - Le Coq Sportif entered bankruptcy management in November 2024 due to ongoing financial difficulties, with its parent company Airesis seeking judicial reorganization to protect jobs [4] - The brand's revenue increased by 30% year-on-year to €82 million in the first half of 2024, but net losses widened from €1.05 million in the previous year to €1.82 million [6] - The company received a total of €15.4 million in loans from the Paris Olympic Committee and the French government [6] Investment and Future Plans - The €70 million investment plan includes €20 million for debt repayment, €30 million to restart operations, and an additional €20 million planned for 2026 [6] - Dan Mamane aims to repay nearly €70 million in debt within ten years and targets sales of €300 million by 2030 [6] - The brand will focus on four key areas: sports fashion, sports heritage, elegant lifestyle, and technical performance, with plans to enhance its product line [6] Management and Strategy - A new team has been assembled for the brand's transformation, including Udi Avshalom as global brand strategy advisor and Alexandre Fauvet as CEO [8] - Dan Mamane emphasizes the need for the brand to regain influence and appeal, leveraging its French heritage and unique textile craftsmanship [8] - The strategy includes balancing distribution channels and increasing international market sales to three times the current level by 2027 [6]

Group 1: Trade Agreement with Vietnam - The U.S. signed a new trade agreement with Vietnam, marking the third trade deal during Trump's presidency [2] - Under the agreement, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. will incur a 20% tariff, while "transshipment" goods will face a 40% tariff [2] - Vietnam agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. imports, which previously faced a potential 46% tariff [2][4] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and Vietnam reached $123.5 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [4] - The agreement is seen as a small victory for the U.S., aiming to address the significant trade deficit with Vietnam [4] Group 2: Economic Context and Employment Data - Recent ADP employment data revealed a loss of 33,000 private sector jobs in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023 [7] - The average job growth over the past three months is at its lowest since the onset of the pandemic, particularly affecting the service sector [7] - Following the disappointing employment data, market speculation increased regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][10] Group 3: Implications for China and Global Trade - The trade agreement with Vietnam reflects a similar strategy to Trump's previous tariffs on China, aiming to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. [5] - Vietnam's smaller economic size compared to China allows for quicker compromises in trade negotiations [5] - The U.S. is also engaged in trade negotiations with Japan, facing challenges over tariffs on Japanese imports, particularly in the automotive sector [8][9] - The ongoing trade dynamics may influence the relocation of manufacturing orders from Vietnam back to China, depending on cost considerations [12]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura analysts predict that Li Ning's sales are likely to rebound in the second half of the year due to a lower comparative base, despite a decline in sales from May to June [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Li Ning's sales experienced a decrease during the period from May to June [1] - The anticipated sales recovery is attributed to a lower comparative base in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Brand Recognition - Recent operational improvements, such as brand ambassador Yang Hansheng's breakthrough in the NBA, are expected to enhance Li Ning's brand recognition in the long term [1] Group 3: Analyst Ratings - Nomura maintains a neutral rating on Li Ning with a target price of HKD 16.20 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nike reported its worst quarterly earnings in over three years, yet investor confidence in its transformation plan increased, leading to a stock price surge of over 10% in after-hours trading [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4, Nike's revenue was $11.1 billion, exceeding analyst expectations but marking the lowest level since Q3 2022. Net profit was $211 million, a staggering 86% drop year-over-year, reaching a new low since Q4 FY2020 [3]. - The disappointing performance reflects the significant impact of the company's transformation plan, with expectations that adverse factors will ease in the future [3]. Strategic Initiatives - CEO Elliott Hill emphasized the company's reform measures, focusing on product line development in key sports areas. He noted that concentrating on sports allows Nike to succeed, highlighting a high single-digit growth in the running product line, which had previously raised investor concerns due to competition from brands like Hoka and On [3]. - CFO Matthew Friend indicated that the company is addressing the negative effects of an overemphasis on direct sales and reliance on lifestyle products and fashion trends [3]. Supply Chain Adjustments - In response to the adverse effects of President Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, Nike is shifting its supply chain to other countries, estimating an increase in its own costs by approximately $1 billion due to new tariff rates [4].

Group 1 - The latest survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicates that U.S. tariffs on China have put many American companies operating in China in a difficult position, with most not planning to return manufacturing to the U.S. [1][3] - The survey, conducted from May 23 to May 28, received responses from 112 American companies across various industries, highlighting the increasing complexity of doing business in China due to escalating trade tensions [1][3]. - Despite challenges, the majority of surveyed companies are localizing operations or shifting some production to third countries, with no companies reporting plans to move production back to the U.S. [1][3]. Group 2 - The survey results reveal that American companies are caught in the trade conflict, facing pressures from both the U.S. and China, including tariffs and export controls [3][4]. - The potential impact of China's rare earth export controls is significant, with 75% of affected companies indicating their inventory will be depleted within three months [3][5]. - Foreign brands with overseas operations, such as Lululemon, are also suffering from U.S. tariffs and economic slowdown concerns, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts and a stock price drop of over 20% [3][5]. Group 3 - China's export controls on rare earth magnets are seen as a disruption to the core supply chains of global manufacturers, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, with China accounting for nearly 70% of global rare earth production [5][4]. - Major automotive companies are reportedly considering relocating some production to China to mitigate potential production delays and disruptions caused by these export controls [5][4]. - The ongoing trade tensions have led to increased uncertainty and instability in U.S.-China economic relations, affecting global supply chains and trade flows [7][6].

Group 1: Industry Developments - Kering Group has acquired Giambattista Valli, increasing its stake to full ownership, becoming the main investor and strategic decision-maker [11] - South Korean retail giant Shinsegae Group plans to acquire a controlling stake in C&C International, a color cosmetics ODM manufacturer, valued at 285 billion KRW (approximately 14.94 billion RMB) [6] - La Perla, a high-end lingerie brand, has been sold to an investment entity, which will retain the brand's existing factories and employees [5] Group 2: Company Performance - Gap Inc. reported a 2.2% increase in net sales to $3.463 billion for Q1, with net profit rising 22% to $193 million, driven by strong performance from Old Navy [2] - Capri Holdings reported a 15.4% decline in revenue to $1.035 billion for Q4 FY2025, with a net loss of $645 million, reflecting struggles across its main brands [3] Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - Elf Beauty has acquired Hailey Bieber's skincare brand Rhode for $1 billion, consisting of $600 million in cash and $200 million in newly issued common stock, with potential additional payments based on future growth [4] - Fountain Capital is seeking to raise up to $1.32 billion by selling approximately half of its stake in Amer Sports Inc., a manufacturer of sports equipment [4] Group 4: Brand Value Rankings - Chanel has surpassed Louis Vuitton to become the second most valuable luxury brand globally, according to Brand Finance's 2025 rankings, with Porsche retaining the top position [7] Group 5: Retail Expansion - Balenciaga has opened its largest flagship store globally in Beijing, covering 1,204 square meters, emphasizing its commitment to the Chinese market [8] Group 6: Data Security Issues - Adidas has reported a data breach involving customer data theft from a service provider, although payment information and passwords were not compromised [12]