Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, closing up by 0.95%, driven by improved market risk appetite and a decrease in domestic copper social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The easing of the U.S. federal government shutdown crisis has led to improved expectations for dollar liquidity, resulting in a noticeable warming of market risk appetite [1] - The hawkish stance of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Bostic, who announced his retirement in February, has shifted expectations towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper mining sector remains tight, with ongoing attention to its impact on the smelting sector [1] - Recent downstream demand for copper has been relatively stable, and domestic refined copper social inventory has not continued to accumulate [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that due to the end of the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts, the macroeconomic outlook has turned positive, suggesting that copper prices will maintain high-level fluctuations without significant downward pressure in the short term [1] - The fundamental aspect to monitor is whether the impact from Indonesian mines can lead to a reduction in non-U.S. refined copper inventory [1]

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a slight pullback in afternoon trading, with copper prices strengthening during the session [1] - Citigroup's copper consumption tracking indicated a mild year-on-year growth of 1% in global copper consumption for September [1] - Citigroup forecasts a continued weak year-on-year growth in copper consumption for Q4 2023, citing a stronger base in 2024 and sluggish manufacturing activity as limiting factors [1] Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) saw its gains narrow to 4.06%, while the gold ETF (518850) rose by 1.52%, and the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 3.07% [1] - Long-term support for copper prices is attributed to increased market liquidity due to expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce more detailed measures to boost consumption and expand openness, indicating potential further stimulation of domestic copper consumption [1] Future Outlook - Citigroup anticipates a recovery in copper demand by 2026, supported by more accommodative fiscal policies in the U.S. and a globally looser monetary environment [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range likely between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging based on this range. Arbitrage is on hold, and the option strategy is short put [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 86,590 yuan/ton and closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 87,100 yuan/ton and closed at 87,410 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: On the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,630 - 86,960 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium of 55 yuan/ton to the current - month contract average price, unchanged from the previous day. The cross - month spread was in a Contango structure, and the import loss was about 800 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai improved slightly [2]. Important Information Summary - **US Politics**: The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening. The 43 - day federal government shutdown crisis may end. The White House press secretary said the shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points [3]. - **Federal Reserve**: White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman if nominated. He hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut in the December policy meeting [3]. Mining End Japanese JX Advanced Metals, its partners, and Mitsubishi Materials plan to integrate Mitsubishi's copper concentrate procurement and copper product sales business into Pan Pacific Copper (PPC). The integration aims to reduce costs and streamline sales operations [4]. Smelting and Import JX, one of Japan's largest copper smelters with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons, may cut copper production by tens of thousands of tons in the 2025 fiscal year. Mitsubishi also warned of reducing copper concentrate processing scale. Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the sharp decline in copper concentrate processing and refining fees (TC/RC) [5]. Consumption A survey of 59 domestic copper strip producers (covering 94.03% of the 3.58 million - ton capacity) showed that the domestic copper strip production in October 2025 was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The expected production in November is 194,600 tons, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,124 tons to 44,088 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.959 million tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Price and Basis Data The report provides data on copper prices, spot premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, and other indicators from different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [23][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong copper industry stocks are experiencing significant gains, with multiple companies showing positive price movements in their shares [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358.HK) increased by 3.26%, reaching HKD 32.92 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (03993.HK) rose by 3.19%, with shares priced at HKD 17.17 [1] - China Nonferrous Mining Corporation (01258.HK) saw a 3.03% increase, trading at HKD 15.3 [1] - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (02899.HK) gained 2.58%, with a share price of HKD 33.46 [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks have shown significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising by 3.26% to HKD 32.92, Luoyang Molybdenum up 3.19% to HKD 17.17, China Nonferrous Mining increasing by 3.03% to HKD 15.3, and Zijin Mining up 2.58% to HKD 33.46 [1] - The recent commentary from Nick Timiraos indicates a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the threats posed by ongoing inflation versus a sluggish labor market, complicating the outlook for potential interest rate cuts [1] - Despite investor expectations for a possible rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the internal disagreements have made previously feasible plans more complex [1] Group 2 - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary funding bill, marking a decisive step towards ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which may reduce macroeconomic risks [2] - The copper market is experiencing a shift due to supply shortages from mining accidents, leading to tighter raw material availability that is now affecting the smelting sector [2] - Current copper prices are supported at the bottom, but breaking through previous highs will require additional positive drivers and significant capital inflow, suggesting a tendency for range-bound trading [2]

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper Co. rising by 3.26% to HKD 32.92, Luoyang Molybdenum Co. increasing by 3.19% to HKD 17.17, China Nonferrous Mining Corp. up by 3.03% to HKD 15.3, and Zijin Mining Group rising by 2.58% to HKD 33.46 [1] Group 2: Economic and Market Context - The U.S. Congress has passed a temporary funding bill, marking a decisive step towards ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which reduces macroeconomic risks [2] - Despite the government shutdown nearing an end, uncertainty in economic data continues to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [2] - A recent copper mine accident has led to expectations of raw material shortages, which have been reflected in prior trading, with current prices showing bottom support but requiring additional positive drivers and significant capital inflow for upward movement beyond previous highs [2]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中国再生金属） 在推进产品注册过程中，该公司严格对标ISO国际标准及《上海期货交易所有色金属交割商品管理规 定》，全面加强QEHS管理体系建设，通过持续强化现场操作、优化工艺参数、严把检验关等措施，实 施全流程精细化管控。产品自进入市场以来，该公司凭借优良的品质赢得市场广泛认可，为"TG-ZJG铜 冠"牌A级铜成功注册奠定了坚实的基础。 该公司将秉承"追求一流品质、满足客户需求"理念，依托上海期货交易所的平台优势，不断完善全链条 质量管控与标准化生产体系，持续加强品牌质量管理，提升品牌价值，进一步增强抵御市场风险的能 力，为企业高质量发展不断注入新动能。 资讯来源：中国有色金属报 资讯监督：张 琳 010-63963867 资讯投诉：杨 璐 010-63963866 11月11日，张家港联合铜业有限公司生产的"TG-ZJG铜冠"牌A级铜在上海期货交易所注册成功，标志着 该公司A级铜产品正式获得期货市场的权威"质量认证"，跻身于高标准高质量行列，可用于相关期货合 约的履约交割。此次注册成功，将有效提高该公司品牌影响力、市场竞争力及溢价能力，进一步提升主 产品市场流通性和利润增长点。 ...

铜基本面数据 2025 年 11 月 12 日 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 86,630 | 0.17% | 86770 | 0.16% | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,840 | -0.32% | - | - | | 昨日成交 | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 沪铜指数 | 156,444 | -48,957 | 553,109 | -2,095 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,386 | -3,551 | 324,000 | 790 | | 昨日期货库存 | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪铜 | 42,964 | -825 | - | - | | 伦铜 | 136,250 | -25 | 7.49% | -1.12% | | LME铜升贴水 | | 昨日价差 -14.85 | 前日价差 -18.22 | 较前日变动 3.37 | | 保税区提单升水 | | 46 | 43 | 3 | | 保税区仓单升水 | | 34 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper prices have surged significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy expectations, with LME copper futures reaching a high of $11,146 per ton, marking an annual increase of over 25% [2][3]. Supply Factors - Multiple supply disruptions have occurred, including seismic events at major copper mines, which are expected to widen the supply-demand gap for copper by 2026 [3]. - The global copper supply is under pressure, with significant incidents reported at major mines such as the Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines [3]. Demand Factors - The demand for copper is being driven by new economic sectors, particularly in renewable energy and electric vehicles, which are expected to significantly increase copper consumption [4][5]. - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper, leading to a regional mismatch in inventory and demand, further tightening the supply in non-U.S. regions [3]. Performance of Leading Companies - Major copper mining companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper have reported substantial revenue and profit growth due to rising copper prices and increased production [6][7]. - Zijin Mining's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with net profit rising by 55.45% [6]. - Jiangxi Copper maintained stable production levels and reported a significant stock price increase, with a year-to-date rise of over 116% [7]. Downstream Companies' Challenges - Downstream companies are facing cost pressures due to high copper prices, leading to mixed opinions on whether to adjust product prices [9]. - Companies like Shengyi Technology have already adjusted prices, while others like Nanya PCB have opted not to increase prices, focusing on maintaining strong supplier relationships [9][10]. Market Outlook - There are differing views on the future trajectory of copper prices, with some analysts predicting a potential stabilization in prices due to macroeconomic factors and demand uncertainties [11]. - The focus for future copper price movements will be on global economic expectations and potential easing of geopolitical tensions, which could support price increases [11].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-11 铜价高位震荡抑制下游采购意愿 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-11-10，沪铜主力合约开于 86110元/吨，收于 86480元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.63%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 86,790元/吨，收于 86,500 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.20%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，SMM 1#电解铜现货报价86360~86710元/吨，均价升水55元/吨，较前日上涨15元/吨。早间价格先扬 后抑，整体仍呈Contango结构。市场交投活跃度提升，持货商高报低走，平水以下成交增多。好铜资源持续紧俏， 金川大板升水100~130元/吨迅速成交，贵溪铜难觅。上海地区库存下降，主因前期铜价回落后下游集中补库。当前 铜价高位运行抑制采购意愿，预计本周主流成交仍将围绕平水附近展开。 重要资讯汇总： 关税方面，美国正式宣布暂停实施对华造船等行业301调查措施一年；而中方宣布暂停对美船舶收取船舶特别港务 费一年，以及暂停对韩华海洋株式会社5家美国相关子公司实施反制措施一年。美国政府方面，在经历了长达40天 的政府"停摆"后，美国国会参议院程序性投票通过 ...