2026年2月5日，全球铜市场再度遭遇剧烈震荡，沪期铜主力合约单日暴跌3.76%，亚盘时段，伦敦期货 三个月期铜高台跳水，盘中跌势略有收窄，截至北京时间16：39分最新价报12969美元/吨，下跌 0.28%。现货市场方面，长江有色金属网数据显示，长江现货1#铜价单日大跌3760元/吨至101260元/ 吨。这场突如其来的暴跌，让市场陷入"铜价是否见顶"的激烈争论。是基本面恶化引发的趋势反转，还 是短期情绪释放后的技术性回调？本文将从宏观、产业、资金三重维度深度解析。 一、美元"紧箍咒"：暴跌的直接导火索 今日铜价崩塌的核心推手，指向美联储政策转向的明确信号。美联储理事库克公开表示"通胀未显著回 落前不支持降息"，叠加下一任主席热门候选人凯文·沃什的鹰派立场预期，推动美元指数持续走强。对 于持有非美货币的投资者而言，美元升值直接推高以美元计价的铜采购成本，抑制投机需求。 数据印证： 1、沪铜主力合约持仓量单日减少10,532手至182336手，显示多头资金加速离场； 2、伦铜隔夜持仓量下降3.2%，表明国际资金同样趋于谨慎。 二、供需博弈：长期支撑与短期压力并存 尽管宏观利空压顶，但铜的产业基本面仍呈现"结构 ...

经济数据上，美国1月ADP新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期的4.8万，前值也从4.1万下修至3.7 万，反映出劳动力市场增速放缓。今日全球股市大面积下跌，美科技股领跌，加剧了投资者对AI领域 的担忧，市场风险情绪受挫。 基本面利多因素持续存在。海外矿山持续关闭及生产中断，或使铜矿供应趋紧，国内铜精矿现货加工费 持续处于历史极低水平。同时，全球能源转型和人工智能需求增长，提振了铜的需求，为铜价提供长期 支撑。需求端，伴随春节假期临近，下游铜加工企业陆续放假，铜杆开工率持续下滑，采购需求愈发疲 弱，国内铜库存持续累积，给铜价带来压力。 今日现货交投平淡，持货商挺升水出货，但高价位货源无人问津，成交不活跃。午后价格继续下探，叠 加临近交割，短期升贴水虽有小幅回涨预期，但下游消费与贸易商成交仍显疲态，现货升水上涨空间有 限，整体现货交投缺乏亮点，铜价上行压力较大。 对于后市，美联储官员偏鹰表态及市场对降息节奏放缓的预期，将持续支撑美元。1月ADP私营部门就 业增长远低于预期，ISM服务业数据略超预期，显示美国经济增长存在结构分化。短期美元仍偏强，将 继续压制铜价。加之国内进入春节假期，市场交投清淡，库存累积压力 ...

Core Insights - The city of Yuncheng is accelerating its international trade efforts, with 245 enterprises engaged in import and export activities, and the Yuncheng Salt Lake International Airport has opened four international routes, achieving a passenger volume of over 2.8 million in a year [1] - Yuncheng is positioning itself as a key gateway for foreign trade in Shanxi province, actively aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative to expand global market access and foster new foreign trade formats [1][2] Group 1: International Trade and Economic Development - The opening of the Yuncheng Salt Lake International Airport has transformed the city from an "inland city" to an "open frontier," enhancing its connectivity and supporting the dual development of passenger and cargo transport [2] - The city has seen an increase in the variety of exported fruits to 14 types, with exports reaching 78 countries and regions, showcasing the effectiveness of the new export platform for local specialties [2] - The establishment of a national-level cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone has strengthened Yuncheng's foreign trade capabilities, focusing on integrating cross-border e-commerce with local industries [2][3] Group 2: E-commerce and Logistics - The Yuncheng cross-border e-commerce pilot zone has attracted 95 leading e-commerce platforms and enterprises, including Alibaba International Station and TikTok, with a diverse range of products being exported to over ten countries [5] - The completion of the bonded logistics center project is expected to fill the regional gap in bonded logistics functions, facilitating future operations in bonded warehousing and international distribution [5] Group 3: Business Environment and Policy Support - Yuncheng is enhancing its business environment through various policy measures aimed at promoting foreign trade, including financial support, tax reductions, and the establishment of a clear communication mechanism with enterprises [6] - The city has been recognized as one of the top 50 cities in China for business environment, reflecting its commitment to creating a market-oriented, law-based, and international business climate [6]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 有色集体调整，沪铜盘中跌幅超3%。隔夜市场美元指数反弹，压制国际商品价格。美国数据好坏参 半，服务业PMI强劲，ADP就业疲软。另外受政府局部停摆影响，非农就业和CPI数据延后公布。数据 分化和延迟发布引发降息预期博弈。另外，LME库存出现增加，全球三大交易所 （LME+COMEX+SHFE）总库存超过86万吨，库存增长反映需求端恢复乏力，叠加中国春节临近，节 后需求真空，或压制价格走势。短期关注有色、贵金属的价格联动性。 美国宏观数据出现分化。ISM1月服务业PMI指数为53.8，与12月持平，也持平于2024年10月以来的最高 水平，好于市场预期，但新订单指数有所放缓；美国1月ADP新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.5 万人，显现劳动力市场动能减弱迹象。另外，美国劳工统计局宣布，将1月份非农就业报告的发布日期 安排至2月11日发布；1月份CPI报告发布日期改至2月13日发布。此外，将于2月5日发布12月职位空缺 和劳动力流动报告。关注市场对于降息预期的调整。库存方面，LME库存增加2525吨至178650吨； Comex库存增加17 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The copper price has experienced a significant decline, with LME copper closing at $13,040 per ton, down $370 or 2.76% [1] - The Shanghai copper futures market also saw a drop, with the main contract closing at ¥102,590 per ton, down ¥2,330 or 2.22% [1] - The increase in LME copper inventory by 2,525 tons to 178,650 tons, a rise of 1.43%, has added pressure to copper prices [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. ADP employment data for January showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 48,000 and the revised December figure of 37,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2] - The strong performance of the U.S. dollar has raised the cost of copper for investors holding non-U.S. currencies, suppressing speculative demand [2] - Technical adjustments in the market have also contributed to the price decline, as investors took profits after a rapid price increase [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are bullish factors in the copper market, including ongoing closures and production disruptions in overseas mines, which may tighten copper supply [3] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain at historically low levels, while global energy transition and AI demand are expected to support long-term copper demand [3] - Despite these bullish factors, the market is experiencing volatility from the precious metals sector, which is affecting copper prices [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is leading to increased copper inventory accumulation domestically, with downstream enterprises reducing purchases due to high prices and lower operating rates in copper rod production [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side disturbances in the copper market limit the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 105,160 with a daily increase of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 102,590 with a decline of 2.44%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,040 with a decline of 2.76% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 471,921, a decrease of 274,488 from the previous day, and the open interest was 617,249, an increase of 11,759. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,322, a decrease of 12,365, and the open interest was 322,000, an increase of 6,542 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,772, an increase of 751, and the LME Copper inventory was 178,650, an increase of 2,525. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.83%, a decrease of 8.22% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 64.25, a decrease of 5.08 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 89,900, an increase of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 100, an increase of 20 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US ISM manufacturing index in January rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, significantly higher than market expectations. President Trump urged the House Republicans to cooperate with the Democrats to reopen the federal government [1]. - **Industry**: Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Capstone Copper resumed the operation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec and reduced investment in the copper refinery in the medium term [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

【今日速览】 ①SpaceX百万颗算力卫星计划曝光，催生100GW太空光伏年需求，设备商迎订单拐点，机构建议关 注三条主线； ②进口依存度高达75%！这种关键金属拟纳入国家战略储备，核心受益企业已圈出； ③氢能成"十五五"主攻方向，把握价值释放关键窗口； ④"新农具"有新机遇，农业无人机站上政策风口。 点击付费阅读，解锁市场最强音，把握投资机会！ 太空光伏｜SpaceX百万颗算力卫星计划曝光，催生100GW太空光伏年需求，设备商迎订单拐 点，机构建议关注三条主线 ①太空算力已成为成本最低、效率最高的AI算力建设模式，SpaceX启动百万颗算力卫星布局 ②太空光伏需求预期不断强化，设备先行订单有望大规模落地 全球卫星部署有望进入高速轨道，随通信卫星向算力卫星升级，太空光伏需求有望持续高增，建议关 注光伏设备供应商迈为股份（300751.SZ）、捷佳伟创（300724.SZ）、奥特维（688516.SH）、高 测股份（688556.SH）、帝尔激光（300776.SZ）；高效换热器供应商双良节能（600481.SH）；光 伏电池供应商钧达股份（002865.SZ）、东方日升（300118.SZ）、明阳智能（601 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现 5%以上) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential inclusion of copper concentrate in the national reserve system, which is expected to elevate the strategic resource status of copper gradually. This move aims to enhance the security of copper resources in China [4][6]. - The report indicates a continuous decline in copper concentrate processing fees, with long-term contracts dropping from $80/ton in 2024 to $21.25/ton in the second half of 2025, and further to $0/ton by 2026. This suggests a persistent tightness in copper concentrate supply [6]. - U.S. copper inventories have been increasing significantly, with a total of 192,000 tons at the end of the first half of 2025 and 259,000 tons accumulated in the second half. By the end of January 2026, COMEX copper inventories reached 524,000 tons, representing 33.2% of the U.S. refined copper consumption in 2024 [6]. - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are expected to improve, with long-term copper prices anticipated to rise steadily due to global industrial upgrades and increased demand from data center construction [6]. Summary by Sections Copper Resource Reserve Expansion - The report discusses the expansion of the national copper strategic reserve, including the potential addition of tradeable and easily liquidated copper concentrates to the reserve system [4][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply side remains constrained, with ongoing global copper resource shortages. The demand for copper is expected to grow due to advancements in core industries and the construction of data centers [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages, specifically recommending Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. as a potential investment opportunity [6].

长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：中国计划增持铜战略储备且风险偏好改善，隔夜伦铜涨近 4%；强基本面 下逢低买盘推动铜价反弹，扩大储备消息提振市场情绪，料今现铜暴涨。 【铜期货市场】中国计划增持铜战略储备且风险偏好改善，隔夜伦铜强势上扬，最新收盘报价13410美 元/吨，收涨510美元，涨幅3.95%，成交量38687手减少10550手，持仓量325780手减少1276手；晚间沪 铜高位暴涨，主力月2603合约最新收盘价报105180元/吨，涨3550元，涨幅3.49%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月3日伦铜最新库存量报176125公吨，较上个交易日增加1450公吨，涨幅 0.83%。 长江铜业网讯：今日沪铜主力2603合约早盘高开，开盘价报105400元/吨，涨3770元。 2月4日消息，据金属行业高级官员透露，中国计划增储国家铜，此举或进一步推高铜价，凸显各国强化 供应安全的决心。受此提振，伦敦铜价一度涨4.6%，相关评论发布于中国铜业协会年度行业发展评估 会议。 货币政策方面，鸽派官员米兰呼吁美联储今年大幅降息，称美国经济未现强劲价格压力；里士满联储主 席巴尔金则认为控通胀仍是核心目标，美国经济 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of copper is strengthening due to disturbances at the raw material end [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 104,500 with a daily increase of 6.01%, and the night - session closing price was 105,180 with a night - session increase of 0.65%. The LME Copper 3M electronic trading price was 13,410 with a daily increase of 3.95% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 746,409, a decrease of 118,859 from the previous day, and the open interest was 605,490, an increase of 1,141. For the LME Copper 3M electronic trading, the trading volume was 38,687, a decrease of 10,514, and the open interest was 326,000, a decrease of 1,276 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,021, an increase of 494. The LME Copper inventory was 176,125, an increase of 1,450, and the注销仓单 ratio was 21.05%, a decrease of 0.63% [1] - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as LME copper premium/discount, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day [1] Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: Fed Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill to end a partial shutdown [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia's copper production in 2025 was about 890,346 tons, an 8% increase from 2024. Chile's Antofagasta's 2025 copper production was below its production guidance, Glencore's 2025 copper production declined by 11%, and Southern Copper expects its copper production to decline in the next two years. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Canada's Capstone Copper resumed operations at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile despite a union strike. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [3]