9月28日，国家发改委等八部门联合印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，其中提 到，2025-2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增长1.5%左右，铜、 铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展，再生金属产量突破2000万吨。 业内人士指出，这份重磅文件背后，透露着一个不容忽视的机遇——铜，这个新能源与算力革命的"核 心血脉"，正迎来历史性风口。 铜的战略地位远超想象。我国铜储量仅占全球3%，但需求却占全球过半。在能源转型与AI算力双浪叠 加下，铜已从传统工业金属蜕变为战略资源：单辆电动车用铜量达传统燃油车4倍，特别是其中的电池 用铜占比超60%AI服务器更是"耗铜大户"：传统服务器仅需5公斤，而英伟达GB200猛增至20公斤，某 些高端机型PCB用铜量甚至突破1.3吨。 并且，铜的供需缺口持续扩大，2025年全球铜供需缺口已达150万吨，叠加全球第二大铜矿生产中断， 供需矛盾进一步加剧。市场分析人士指出，这可能也是国家此时重磅出台方案，全力推动国内资源开发 与再生利用的核心原因。 盘面上，今日（9月30日）有色金属板块领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ET ...

华泰证券则表示，2025年以来铜矿扰动事件频发，大部分扰动在短期内解除、导致的供给减量有限。该 行表示，展望2026年，预计Kamoa-kakula铜矿与Grasberg铜矿合计造成的供给减量可能达40万吨产量， 有望抵消全球铜矿全部增量，铜供需平衡表大幅改善。叠加市场对AI相关基建铺开将驱动铜需求的预 期、铜矿扰动频发、全球财政货币宽松环境、金价对铜价有一定拖拽作用，判断铜价行情或启动。 消息面上，近日，自由港宣布旗下印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流事故严重破坏开采设施，预计2026年铜产 量将下降约35%，较原计划减少27万吨。今年以来，刚果(金)Kamoa-kakula铜矿因矿震减产15万吨，智 利国家铜业旗下埃尔特尼恩特铜矿也因坍塌事故停产。美银证券发布研报称，考虑到现时全球三大铜矿 均出现经营问题，预计今明两年实际产量将低于原先预期。 铜业股继续飙升，截至发稿，五矿资源(01208)涨7.53%，报6.71港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358) 涨5.92%，报29.66港元；中国有色矿业(01258)涨5.41%，报14.8港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨 3.73%，报3 ...

智通财经APP获悉，铜业股继续飙升，截至发稿，五矿资源(01208)涨7.53%，报6.71港元；江西铜业股 份(00358)涨5.92%，报29.66港元；中国有色矿业(01258)涨5.41%，报14.8港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨 3.73%，报3.36港元。 华泰证券则表示，2025年以来铜矿扰动事件频发，大部分扰动在短期内解除、导致的供给减量有限。该 行表示，展望2026年，预计Kamoa-kakula铜矿与Grasberg铜矿合计造成的供给减量可能达40万吨产量， 有望抵消全球铜矿全部增量，铜供需平衡表大幅改善。叠加市场对AI相关基建铺开将驱动铜需求的预 期、铜矿扰动频发、全球财政货币宽松环境、金价对铜价有一定拖拽作用，判断铜价行情或启动。 消息面上，近日，自由港宣布旗下印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流事故严重破坏开采设施，预计2026年铜产 量将下降约35%，较原计划减少27万吨。今年以来，刚果(金)Kamoa-kakula铜矿因矿震减产15万吨，智 利国家铜业旗下埃尔特尼恩特铜矿也因坍塌事故停产。美银证券发布研报称，考虑到现时全球三大铜矿 均出现经营问题，预计今明两年实际产量将低于原先预期。 ...

上周SMM国内铜线缆企业的开工率为65.44%，尽管环比仅微降0.41个百分点，但同比大幅下降32.24个百分点，且低于市场预期1.23个百分点。目前电力、 建筑、汽车等主要领域的需求均延续了前期偏弱的局面，市场并未出现预期的季节性改善迹象。下游企业以观望为主，新增订单匮乏。且随着双节假期临 近，不少企业计划停产放假，生产天数的缩短将进一步制约开工率的提升。预计本周铜线缆企业的开工率将降至59.72%，环比下降5.72个百分点。 上周，在全球第二大铜矿——印尼Grasberg矿山因事故停产的事件驱动下，沪铜展开强劲反弹，主力合约最高触及83090元/吨，创近6个月以来新高。随着国 庆与中秋双节临近，部分资金选择获利了结，导致本周一沪铜期价运行重心小幅下移。尽管短期存在调整压力，但全球铜矿供应趋紧的格局已进一步巩固， ICSG数据显示，2025年7月全球矿山产量同比上升7.2%，至201.24万吨。近期印尼Grasberg铜矿暂时关停，进一步加剧了全球铜矿供应的短缺局面。9月8 日，Grasberg巨型铜金矿发生一起严重的泥浆溃涌事故，导致主要采矿作业自当日起暂停。9月24日，运营方自由港麦克莫兰公司宣布因不可 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed higher on September 30, with the Dow Jones up by 0.15%, the Nasdaq up by 0.48%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.26% [1] - Large technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Amazon increasing more than 1%, while Broadcom fell nearly 2% [1] Sector Performance - Cryptocurrency-related stocks saw significant gains, with Coinbase rising over 6%, Circle and Century Aluminum increasing more than 5%, and Southern Copper up over 3% [1] - The oil and gas sector experienced notable declines, with major companies such as BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Total all dropping more than 2% [1]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened higher due to favorable news over the weekend, closing up over 1.89% [1] - China's industrial profits for August showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, reversing a previous decline of 1.5% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026 [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The plan aims for an average annual growth of 1.5% in the production of ten major non-ferrous metals, with significant progress in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [1] - The sector is benefiting from a global interest rate cut cycle, leading to a positive market environment, with major companies like China Aluminum and China Hongqiao seeing gains of over 4% [1] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices reached a new high of over $3,800 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of nearly 45%, the largest annual gain since 1979 [2] - Significant inflows into the gold market reached a record of $17.6 billion over the past four weeks, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Stocks in the precious metals sector, such as Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, saw increases of nearly 7% and 6%, respectively [2] U.S. Stock Market Dynamics - The proportion of U.S. household financial assets held in stocks reached a historical high of 45%, indicating a strong correlation between stock market performance and consumer spending [3] - There are expectations of policy measures in the securities industry to stimulate market activity, with several major securities firms seeing stock price increases of over 11% [3] Energy Storage Sector - The demand for energy storage cells in China is robust, with leading battery manufacturers operating at full capacity and orders extending into early next year [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission set a target for new energy storage installations to reach over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving an estimated investment of around 250 billion yuan [4] - Companies like Ruipu Lanjun and Tianneng Power have seen significant stock price increases, reflecting positive market sentiment [4] AI and Robotics Sector - The Chinese government is promoting deep participation of various enterprises, including private ones, in the "AI+" initiative, with plans to support the development of domestic computing power models [7] - Companies in the AI sector, such as SenseTime and Alibaba, are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and market interest [7] - The humanoid robotics market is also expanding, with companies like UBTECH securing significant contracts, indicating strong growth potential [5][9] Individual Company Highlights - Kuaishou reported a 13.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 35.046 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin reaching a record high of 16% [8] - The company’s AI commercialization efforts are showing strong results, with significant growth in daily active users and online marketing revenue [8][9] - Kuaishou's new AI model has improved video production efficiency, further enhancing its competitive position in the market [9]

此前由于自由港宣布印尼Grasberg矿遭遇不可抗力并下调铜销量预测，这一事态发展明显超出前期预 期，市场对于矿紧矛盾激化担忧升温，内外铜价受振大涨，大涨过后期价基本消化本次矿端干扰，随后 铜价高位调整。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费低位微升，但幅度有限，供需博弈下加工费暂时低位 企稳。 沪铜早间低开，日内跌幅有所收窄，收盘微跌0.21%。矿端干扰有所消化，临近双节下游备货基本结 束，高铜价对需求有所抑制，国内社库明显增加，铜价偏弱震荡。 》周末全国主流地区铜库存增加0.82万吨【SMM周度数据】 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，平衡预期在铜矿扰动下转入缺口，但现实层面尚待兑现。展望后市，降 息预期分歧和消费偏弱是持续突破的限制因素，但矿山影响量较大，预计限制回落空间，整体运行重心 已上移。后续需持续关注其恢复进展。 （文华综合） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these sectors [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a new era of non-linear changes in copper and gold prices, with expectations for sustained price increases [14]. - The Grasberg mine incident is expected to significantly disrupt copper supply, enhancing the certainty of rising copper prices in the medium term [14][15]. - The report highlights that the copper smelting capacity growth is likely to slow down, which may improve smelting fees and profitability for copper smelting companies [15]. - For gold, the report emphasizes that the core pricing logic is tied to the deterioration of dollar credit in the medium term, rather than short-term interest rate expectations [16][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the potential for copper prices to rise due to supply shortages exacerbated by the Grasberg mine incident, which could reduce copper concentrate supply by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [14]. - It notes that global demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to factors such as electric vehicle adoption and data center expansion [14]. - The report also mentions that the copper smelting industry is facing a "de-involution" trend, which may lead to improved smelting fees in the future [15]. 2. Steel Industry - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to find support at the bottom due to cost factors, with a potential recovery in profitability in the fourth quarter [18]. - It highlights a seasonal shift in demand, with an increase in rebar consumption by 4.96% week-on-week, although it remains down 13.71% year-on-year [24]. - The report notes that the overall steel price index has slightly decreased by 0.28%, with specific products like hot-rolled steel showing a decline of 0.65% [39]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54% in August 2025, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [43]. - It also mentions that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth rates, with August 2025 figures showing a 26.00% increase in production [47]. - The prices of lithium, cobalt, and nickel have shown an overall upward trend, reflecting strong demand in the energy metal market [54].

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-9-29 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价预期震荡偏强 F3084967 Z0018883 供需方面，自由港宣布印尼 Grasberg 矿遭遇不可抗力，预计印尼自由港 2026 年的产量可能比事件前的预估低约 35%；叠加加拿大 Hudbay 矿业因 秘鲁局势动荡暂时关闭了 Constancia 选矿厂引发了市场对铜供应链的担忧。 本周漆包线行业机台开机率未能延续回升态势，环比下降 0.2 个百分点，降 至 77.73%，新增订单亦环比下降 0.81 个百分点。周四铜价的意外冲高成 为扰动开机率未能如期回升的关键因素。展望下周，距离国庆假期仅有两个 交易日，高铜价对于终端的需求抑制明显，不排除个别漆包线企业有提前放 假的计划，SMM 预计下周漆包线行业机台开机率将回落至 73.53%。因铜价 大幅上涨，当前华北市场下游企业几乎备货需求全无，消费不佳令加工企业 考虑延长国庆期间放假安排。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 9 月 24 日，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会第三届理事会第五次会议在 河北雄安新区召开，中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长陈学森在总结 ...

智通财经APP讯，铜陵有色(000630.SZ)公告，公司2025年半年度利润分配预案拟：向全体股东每10股派 发现金红利0.5元(含税)，不送红股、不进行资本公积金转增股本，剩余未分配利润结转至下一期。 ...