Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [6] Core Insights - The total tin concentrate production at Renison for Q1 2025 reached 2,432 tons, a decrease of 27% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 7% year-on-year, impacted by unexpected shutdowns due to bushfires and power supply interruptions [1] - The tin concentrate shipment for Q1 2025 was 3,230 tons, reflecting a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 22% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated sales price for tin in Q1 2025 was A$50,603 per ton, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 26% increase year-on-year [4] - The estimated unit sales and marketing cost for tin was A$6,885 per ton, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year [5] - The estimated C1 cash production cost for tin was A$20,597 per ton, a 27% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 12% increase year-on-year [5] - The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) for tin was A$33,482 per ton, up 22% quarter-on-quarter and 2% year-on-year [5] - The estimated net cash inflow for Q1 2025 was A$14,596 per ton, a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 139% increase year-on-year [7] - The estimated revenue for Renison in Q1 2025 was A$123 million, a 21% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 35% increase year-on-year [8] - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 was A$56.23 million, a 30% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 59% increase year-on-year [9] - The estimated net cash inflow for Renison was A$35.50 million in Q1 2025, down from A$58.70 million in the previous quarter [10] - Total capital expenditure for the quarter was A$20.73 million, with A$10.49 million allocated for capital projects [11] - Metals X maintains a healthy cash balance, with A$175 million invested in fixed deposits at an average annual interest rate of approximately 4.85% [12][13] - The company continues to evaluate potential acquisition opportunities, focusing primarily on tin and similar base metals and gold opportunities [14] - Metals X made an informal acquisition proposal to Greentech Technology International Limited, contingent upon financial due diligence [15] - The company announced a share buyback plan, extending the buyback period for an additional 12 months [17]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that Renison's tin concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 2,432 tons, a decrease of 27% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 7% year-on-year, impacted by unexpected shutdowns due to bushfires and power supply interruptions [1] - The estimated tin sales price for Q1 2025 was A$50,603 per ton, reflecting an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 26% increase year-on-year [4] - The estimated revenue for Renison in Q1 2025 was A$123 million, a decrease of 21% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 35% year-on-year [8] Production and Sales - Q1 2025 tin concentrate shipment was 3,230 tons, representing a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 22% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated C1 cash production cost for Q1 2025 was A$20,597 per ton, up 27% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year [5] - The estimated All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) for Q1 2025 was A$33,482 per ton, reflecting a 22% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 2% increase year-on-year [5] Financial Performance - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 was A$56.23 million, a decrease of 30% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 59% year-on-year [9] - The estimated net cash inflow for Q1 2025 was A$35.50 million, down from A$58.70 million in the previous quarter but significantly up from A$1.39 million in the same quarter last year [10] - Total capital expenditure for the quarter was A$20.73 million, slightly down from A$21.47 million in the previous quarter [11] Strategic Outlook - Metals X continues to evaluate potential acquisition opportunities both domestically and internationally, with a focus on tin and similar base metals and gold opportunities [14] - The company has made an informal acquisition proposal to Greentech Technology International Limited, contingent upon financial due diligence [15] - Metals X has announced a share buyback program, extending the buyback period for an additional 12 months [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of tight supply and seasonal demand weakness, with the main contract closing down 2.87% at 250,300 yuan/ton [1] - Short-term tin ore supply remains tight, but expectations for recovery are increasing as tin mines in Myanmar and Africa resume production [1] - The downstream sector is currently in a seasonal consumption lull, leading to a gradual shift towards a more relaxed fundamental outlook for tin [1] Group 2 - The supply situation in major production areas like Yunnan remains tight, and if raw material supply does not improve soon, some smelting companies may halt production for maintenance [1] - Market reactions to rumors about the resumption of production in the Wa region have been intense, but few companies have completed the payment for mining permits, indicating a cautious stance [1] - The strict border checks between China and Myanmar complicate the entry of large machinery and mining personnel, further delaying the expected recovery in production [1] Group 3 - After the May Day holiday, some downstream processing companies have gradually resumed operations, leading to a release of low-price replenishment demand, although high-price transactions remain weak [1] - Despite adjustments in U.S. tariffs supporting marginal consumption, actual export orders are still weakening on a month-on-month basis [1] - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth after last year's rapid expansion, which is directly impacting tin demand due to weak end-consumer consumption [1] Group 4 - Market sentiment has returned to rationality after initial emotional reactions, with concerns about rapid recovery of raw material supply alleviated due to slow progress in the Wa region [2] - The recent decline in market risk appetite has contributed to further downward pressure on tin prices, although prices are nearing the psychological support level for downstream buyers [2] - Attention is now focused on integer support levels as the downward trend in tin prices is expected to slow [2]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美联邦法院阻止特朗普 4 月 2 日关税政策生效 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 5 月 28 日，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 日 "解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税 的决策为越权。位于纽约曼哈顿的国际贸易法院表示，美国宪法赋予美国国会独家权力来规 范与其他国家的贸易，而总统声称为保护美国经济而行使的紧急权力并不凌驾于这些权力之 上。该诉讼由美国非营利、无党派诉讼机构自由正义中心代表五家受关税影响的美国小企业 提起，这是对特朗普关税政策的首次重大法律挑战。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 锡 | ★★★★ | 锡：昨日锡价大幅下跌，跌幅近 3%，主要受到消息面影响，市场一度传言佤邦复产进度， 另外近期多数商品下跌，宏观情绪偏差，而有色板块整体估值较高，锡作为远端基本面较弱 的品种亦被情绪交易。然而基本面仍然维持强现实弱预期格局，据钢联了解 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" for 2024 [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see profit improvement in 2024, with the characteristic of "resource supremacy" becoming more pronounced. Supply from the mining sector remains rigid, while companies are cautious with capital expenditures amid increasing macroeconomic volatility and export policy restrictions from various countries, leading to enhanced supply constraints. The demand side shows a fragmented demand landscape under the backdrop of de-globalization, with re-industrialization in Europe and the US and economic growth in emerging markets being the main demand drivers. Revenue and net profit for the non-ferrous sector are projected to grow slightly, indicating a gradual improvement in industry prosperity. Resource-based companies, particularly in copper, gold, aluminum, tin, and tungsten, are expected to perform better, with a growing focus on resource scarcity and strategic importance [19][22][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3.47 trillion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.86%, and a net profit of CNY 138.41 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.77% [22][26]. 2. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that industrial metals experienced significant price fluctuations due to US trade tariffs in early April, but prices have since rebounded as negotiations exceeded market expectations. Small metals continue to perform well, with tungsten prices reaching new highs amid strengthened domestic export controls [20][21]. 3. Policy Changes - Domestic measures to tighten resource export controls have been noted, alongside international collaborations for mineral investment and development. Key actions include China's crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling, Australia's commitment to establishing strategic reserves for critical minerals, and various agreements between countries to enhance mining cooperation [20][21]. 4. Company Performance - Chinese listed copper companies have shown a significant increase in resource and reserve volumes, with a 27% year-on-year increase in resource volume and a 25% increase in reserves. Notable companies like Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources have made substantial acquisitions and exploration investments to secure resource safety [22][28][32].

Core Viewpoint - Weiling New Energy Co., Ltd. is shifting its focus to other minerals after suffering losses in the lithium industry for over two years, recently acquiring a majority stake in Hunan Linwu Jiayu Mining Co., Ltd. for 220 million yuan to explore tin and tungsten mining opportunities [2][4][7]. Company Overview - Weiling, formerly known as Anzhong Co., has undergone significant transformation since the change of control in late 2020, focusing on lithium business during a period of rising lithium prices, which led to substantial revenue growth in 2022 [2][4]. - The company has faced continuous losses, reporting a total loss of 556 million yuan over eight consecutive quarters, with a net asset reduction to 365 million yuan by the end of 2024 [4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2022, Weiling's revenue reached 1.186 billion yuan, over five times the previous year, and net profit turned positive with a year-on-year increase of 185.9% to 82.39 million yuan [5]. - However, by 2023, revenue remained around 1.1 billion yuan, but the company began incurring losses again, averaging 278 million yuan in annual losses during the downturn of the lithium market [5][6]. Market Conditions - The lithium market has seen a significant oversupply due to rapid capacity expansion, leading to a decline in prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping below 65,000 yuan per ton by mid-May 2025 [5][6]. - The tin market is currently experiencing a supply shortage, with prices ranging from 250,000 to 260,000 yuan per ton, influenced by mining grade, limited new capacity, and geopolitical factors [3][8]. Acquisition Details - Weiling's recent acquisition of a 74.3% stake in Jiayu Mining is seen as a strategic move to diversify its operations beyond lithium, with the potential to enhance overall performance by leveraging its experience in the lithium sector [4][7]. - Jiayu Mining holds mining rights for a variety of metals, including tin and tungsten, with a mining area of 8.1815 square kilometers and an annual extraction capacity of 300,000 tons [7][9]. Future Outlook - The acquisition is expected to help Weiling stabilize its operations and potentially improve its financial performance by tapping into the cyclical nature of different metal prices [7][9]. - The tin market is projected to experience increased supply in the coming year, which may impact Weiling's ability to benefit from its new investment [9].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The company has revised its 2025 tin production forecast from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons due to production interruptions [7] - In Q1 2025, the company processed 160,300 tons of ore, a decrease of 31% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 46.5% year-on-year [1] - The average tin grade for processed ore in Q1 2025 was 3.55%, an 18% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 7.3% decrease year-on-year [1] - The average recovery rate of the concentrator was 75%, consistent with previous periods and above the target of 73% [1] - The average tin price achieved in Q1 2025 was $32,507 per ton, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 21% increase year-on-year [3] - The estimated all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for tin in Q1 2025 was $16,339 per ton, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 10.5% increase year-on-year [3] - The company held $99 million in cash as of April 17, 2025, and expects to receive $38 million in sales revenue by the end of April 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Production and Operational Performance - Q1 2025 tin production was 4,270 tons, an 18% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 36% increase year-on-year [1] - Tin sales in Q1 2025 were 3,863 tons, a 22% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] - The company increased sales and export volumes by the end of Q1 2025, totaling 4,581 tons by April 16, 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The estimated EBITDA for Q1 2025 is $61.8 million, a 19% decrease from the previous quarter but a 19% increase year-on-year [3] - The company has agreed to renew a $53 million overdraft facility, which requires formal documentation and a $28 million international bank guarantee [5] Operational Restart Update - From April 15 to May 11, 2025, the Bisie tin mine produced 1,290 tons of tin, with production gradually increasing as operations resumed [6] - The first batch of tin concentrate with complete records was exported on May 9, 2025 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been characterized by significant volatility, with prices rising over 10% in the first quarter and reaching a 34-month high before experiencing a drop of over 20% in just five trading days, driven by macroeconomic shocks and supply-demand mismatches [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in tin prices is attributed to two main factors: the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy raising concerns about increased global trade costs and demand contraction, and supply expectation adjustments from major producing regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. - The ongoing trade war and changing tariff policies have led to heightened market risk aversion, significantly impacting tin as a high-volatility commodity [2]. - The tightening of dollar liquidity and geopolitical conflicts have further exacerbated market fluctuations, with LME tin inventories dropping to their lowest point in 2023 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Current supply-demand dynamics indicate a "tight but not lacking" supply situation, with demand showing signs of recovery from weakness [6]. - Data shows that China's tin ore imports in January-February 2025 fell nearly 50% year-on-year, with a sharp 81.07% decline in imports from Myanmar, influenced by recent earthquakes affecting supply [6]. - The global mining capital expenditure growth rate for tin-related projects from 2019 to 2024 is only 1.2%, indicating a mismatch between existing project recovery and new project development timelines against demand growth [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The demand for tin is expected to significantly improve in the medium to long term, supported by growth in sectors such as semiconductor chips, 5G communications, photovoltaic cells, and AI chip soldering materials [6][8]. - The International Tin Association predicts a "non-linear leap" in tin demand from AI servers, with consumption per server expected to be three times that of traditional devices by 2025 [8]. - Despite the ongoing global trade tensions, tin is recognized as a strategic resource, with its overall value anticipated to rise as macroeconomic concerns are gradually absorbed by the market [8].