Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that tin prices have shown a slight increase due to macroeconomic factors, particularly expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have boosted valuations in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The main tin futures contract price reached 274,000 yuan per ton, with spot prices showing a premium of 200 yuan per ton [1] - The inventory levels at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly to around 7,700 tons, while LME inventories rose to 2,385 tons [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the import losses for tin remain stable, and the processing fees for tin ore are also holding steady at 40% [1] - The overall industrial fundamentals are stable, with a tight supply situation expected to persist in September, although weak demand has not significantly impacted prices [1] - Tin prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton, with a projected trading range of 270,000 to 277,000 yuan per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and recent U.S. inflation data [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 271,260 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.66% increase, although market sentiment cooled during the day [1] - Supply constraints persist, particularly from Myanmar, where mining activities are hindered by seasonal weather and transportation restrictions, leading to low import levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin supply is significantly impacted by annual maintenance from leading companies, although overall supply remains relatively loose with high inventory levels [2] - There is potential for marginal recovery in consumption, but the slow resumption of mining in Myanmar limits any significant increase in supply [2] - The macroeconomic environment appears supportive for tin prices, providing strong support for prices on the downside [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company Limited reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by effective market strategies and resource management [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 21.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.35% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.062 billion yuan, up 32.76% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.303 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.55% [1] Market Position and Resource Advantage - Yunnan Tin holds a dominant position in the tin market, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% for tin metal in 2024 [1] - The company has the largest reserves of tin and indium resources globally, with 626,200 tons of tin and 4,821 tons of indium [2] - The tightening supply of tin resources globally is expected to support tin prices, highlighting the company's resource advantages [2] Production and Supply Chain Management - The self-sufficiency rates for tin concentrate, copper concentrate, and zinc concentrate are projected to be 30.21%, 15.91%, and 72.72% respectively for 2024 [2] - The company is enhancing its raw material procurement strategy by diversifying channels and optimizing mining operations to improve production efficiency [2] Technological Innovation - Yunnan Tin has developed advanced smelting technologies focused on efficiency, energy conservation, and environmental sustainability [3] - The company received a patent for its tin-containing material smelting system, showcasing its commitment to innovation and breaking foreign technology barriers [3] - The implementation of a digital infrastructure and a focus on high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing are key to the company's transformation and efficiency improvements [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [7]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Renison's tin concentrate production reached 2,724 tons, a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The estimated revenue for Renison in Q2 2025 is AUD 136 million, reflecting an 11% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [5]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q2 2025 is AUD 67.05 million, a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 16% increase year-on-year [6]. - The estimated net cash inflow for Q2 2025 is AUD 44.20 million, a 25% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 15% increase year-on-year [6]. Production and Sales - The total production of tin concentrate in Q2 2025 was 2,724 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% and a year-on-year increase of 9% [1]. - The shipment volume of tin concentrate in Q2 2025 was 2,202 tons, a 32% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while year-on-year it remained flat [2]. Pricing and Costs - The estimated selling price for tin in Q2 2025 is AUD 50,088 per ton, a 1% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 2% increase year-on-year [3]. - The estimated unit sales and marketing cost for tin in Q2 2025 is AUD 6,702 per ton, a 3% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 5% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The estimated C1 cash production cost for Q2 2025 is AUD 18,769 per ton, a 9% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 1% decrease year-on-year [4]. - The estimated All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) for Q2 2025 is AUD 30,733 per ton, an 8% decrease quarter-on-quarter and an 8% decrease year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance - The total capital expenditure for Q2 2025 was AUD 20.97 million, slightly up from AUD 20.73 million in Q1 2025 [8]. - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to AUD 230.48 million by the end of Q2 2025, down from AUD 249.48 million in Q1 2025 [9]. - Metals X continues to evaluate potential acquisition opportunities, focusing on tin mines and similar base metals and gold investment opportunities [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the production of tin metal increased by 22% quarter-on-quarter to 3,775 tons, while sales rose by 8% to 3,109 tons [1]. - The average selling price of tin metal in H1 2025 was $32,816 per ton, an increase of 8% compared to $30,397 per ton in the same period last year [1]. - The company aims for a tin ore production target of 21,500 tons and a tin metal production target of 21,545 tons for the year 2025 [6]. Production and Sales Summary - In Q2 2025, the company's tin ore production was 3,782 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23% but an 18% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The land-based tin ore production was 804 tons, down 52% year-on-year and down 50% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The sea-based tin ore production was 2,978 tons, a decrease of 8% year-on-year but an increase of 84% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The sales volume of tin metal in Q2 2025 was 3,109 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35% but an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue was 21.2 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, a year-on-year increase of 2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20% [3]. - The cost of goods sold in Q2 2025 was 16.5 trillion Indonesian Rupiah, a year-on-year decrease of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13% [3]. - The operating profit for Q2 2025 was 232 billion Indonesian Rupiah, a year-on-year increase of 59% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 56% [3]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 183.21 billion Indonesian Rupiah, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 58% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - In H1 2025, domestic sales accounted for 8% of tin metal sales, while exports made up 91%, with Japan, South Korea, and Singapore being the top three export destinations [2]. - The company plans to enhance resource management, strengthen market position, and support the electric vehicle ecosystem as part of its strategy for 2025 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and North Kivu, Congo, and the continuous increase in the operating capacity of domestic refined tin, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are all within a reasonable range. Given the expected increase in production and inventory and the influence of factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations and mine resumptions, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State determined on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees, with an initial incremental production of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months. Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu, Congo, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and imports in August [20]. - China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (or remained flat) compared to last week, and China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month [27]. - Indonesia's state - owned tin mining company PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. The export volume in August may increase month - on - month, but due to the loss in imports and exports, China's refined tin imports and exports in August may decrease month - on - month [31]. Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of China's tin solder in August may decrease month - on - month, and the inventory may increase month - on - month [34]. - China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production and exports in August may increase month - on - month, while imports may decrease month - on - month [42]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai and London tin prices is at the 50% quantile of the past five - year average [8][10]. - China's refined tin social inventory, SHFE refined tin inventory, and the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory have increased compared to last week, while the LME refined tin inventory has decreased [11][13]. - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has shown a downward trend, indicating a potentially tight supply of domestic tin ore [14][16]. Other - The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid battery has remained flat compared to last week [44][47].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a weak demand season, with limited fundamental drivers and fluctuating macro sentiments impacting prices. The main contract closed at 268,540 yuan/ton, up 0.42% despite a cooling demand environment [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tin downstream demand is currently weak due to the off-peak season, with a notable decline in orders from the home appliance sector and a significant drop in photovoltaic orders following the end of the rush for installations [2]. - In June, China's imports of tin concentrate slightly decreased compared to May, with supply remaining relatively tight domestically. The main sources of increased imports were the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Myanmar, with a significant rise from the former [1]. - The supply side continues to show low operating rates at smelters, and the industrial supply of tin concentrate remains tight, contributing to a subdued market environment [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent price increases have been met with a lack of actual transactions, as traders report a high price level and downstream participants exhibit a cautious stance, leading to a generally quiet trading atmosphere [2]. - The market is expected to remain under the influence of macroeconomic policies, with tin prices likely to experience fluctuations at high levels in the short term [2]. - The overall trading performance is characterized by a weak demand environment, with the market maintaining a low level of activity as consumer acceptance of current tin prices remains low [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Group 1: Tin Industry Insights - The supply-demand gap and monetary easing signal a clear upward trend in tin prices, with three companies holding quality mines being recommended by institutions [3] - Global tin ore grades are declining, and cost pressures are increasing, while the macro environment is improving and demand expectations are positive, leading to a stronger pricing power for mines [3][5] - With the gradual easing of domestic and international monetary policies, asset prices are expected to benefit, potentially leading to a sustained increase in the central price of tin [3][7] Group 2: Third-Party Testing Industry Insights - The third-party testing industry is characterized by a "just-in-time" demand with a projected annual growth rate of 14% and a market size of $21 billion, driven by the semiconductor industry's expansion [8] - The demand for testing services is increasing due to the continuous R&D investments and capacity expansions by downstream integrated circuit companies [8][9] - The trend towards specialization in the integrated circuit industry is expected to benefit third-party testing laboratories, which offer higher efficiency and more objective results [8][9]