越南将为对美出口支付 20%关税，关注国际环境及关税变化。7 月 2 日，越南所有对美国出口的商品将面临至少 20%关税，并对美国"完 全开放市场"。此前，越南曾被美国施加高达 46%的"对等关税"税 率，90 天缓冲期内调整至 10%。我们认为伴随关税政策逐步明朗，利 好我国在海外具备产能及供应链布局的出口企业，未来出口链有望陆 续实现修复。建议关注轻工出口链细分行业龙头匠心家居（智能家居 出海+自主品牌α）、九号公司（智能两轮车）、嘉益股份（合作 Stanley+保温杯出海）、乐歌股份（智能家居+海外仓）。 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.06.30-2025.07.04），A股 SW纺织服饰行 业指数上涨 1.36%，轻工制造行业上涨 0.58%，而沪深 300 上涨 1.54%，上证指数上涨 1.40%。纺织服装在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅 排名第 12 位，轻工制造在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 21 位。 老铺新加坡客流稳健，持续关注黄金和 潮玩板块 ——轻工纺服行业周报（20250630-0704） 二、核心逻辑： 1）轻工行业：①我们认为潮玩谷子行业需求快速增长，Z 世代引领新 消费趋势 ...

Global Gold Market Overview - The international gold price surged to $3,335 per ounce on July 9, 2025, with domestic prices also rising, reflecting a strong correlation with global trends [1] - Over 90% of central banks surveyed, a record 73 banks, expect to increase their gold reserves in the next year, marking a 17 percentage point increase from the previous year [1] - Nearly half of the central banks indicated a clear intention to augment their gold holdings, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid rising global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves has persisted for 15 years, driven by gold's long-term value retention, diversification needs, and stability during economic crises [1] - 73% of surveyed central banks predict a decline in the dollar's share of global reserves over the next five years, while the shares of the euro, renminbi, and gold are expected to rise [1] - As of June 30, 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, reflecting a 0.98% increase, which aligns with the growing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Domestic Gold Retail Market Price Analysis - Domestic gold retail prices are showing a steady upward trend, in line with international gold price movements [2] - The domestic gold base price was reported at 772.40 yuan per gram, up 0.60% from the previous closing price of 767.82 yuan per gram [4] - Prices for various gold products, including 9999 gold, increased by 0.55%, while some futures prices saw significant rises of 9.99% and 6.26%, indicating a surge in investment demand [4] Shenzhen Shui Bei Wholesale Market Prices - The Shui Bei market, a key center for China's gold and jewelry industry, reported prices for various gold types ranging from 782 to 783 yuan per gram, with platinum priced at 352 yuan per gram [5] Summary - The overall trend in the gold market as of July 9, 2025, is upward, driven by central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves [6] - Domestic gold prices are also rising, as reflected in both brand jewelry store prices and wholesale market prices [6] - Future gold market trends will depend on international economic conditions, geopolitical changes, and investor confidence [6]

黄金投资指南：2025年7月金市深度解析及投资策略 一、全球黄金市场概览：谨慎乐观，理性投资 各大品牌金店今日金价呈现出一定差异：周生生和六福珠宝黄金价格均为每克1005元左右（周生生1007元），铂金价格一致为每克559元；谢瑞麟黄金价格 同为每克1005元，但金条价格略低，为每克943元；金至尊和潮宏基与六福珠宝价格保持一致；菜百首饰黄金价格相对较低，为每克982元，铂金价格仅为 412元，金条价格为878元；老庙黄金黄金价格为每克1000元，铂金为470元，金条为955元；老凤祥黄金价格略高，为每克1004元，铂金与老庙相同，金条价 格为954元；中国黄金黄金价格最低，为每克969元，铂金为399元；周六福黄金价格为每克985元，铂金为582元，金条价格为890元。 价格差异主要源于品 牌溢价、加工费以及不同纯度金饰的差异。 三、贵金属市场实时动态：黄金小幅回调，其他贵金属普遍上涨 现货黄金(XAU)今日价格为3333.01美元/盎司，较昨日下跌3.34美元/盎司，跌幅0.10%。日内价格波动区间为3329.39美元/盎司至3345.47美元/盎司，开盘价 为3335.54美元/盎司，昨日收盘价为333 ...

[Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 08 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.02%，深成指收 跌 0.7%，创业板指收跌 1.21%。沪深两市成交额 12084.97 亿元。申 万行业方面，综合、公用事业、房地产领涨，煤炭、医药生物、通信 领跌；概念板块方面，中船系、生物质能发电、2025 中报预增概念涨 幅居前，同花顺果指数、重组蛋白、减肥药概念跌幅居前。港股方面， 恒生指数收跌 0.12%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.25%；海外方面，美国三 大指数集体收跌，道指收跌 0.94%，标普 500 收跌 0.79%，纳指收跌 0.92%。 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 【重要新闻】 【截至 6 月末我国外汇储备规模超 3.3 万亿美元，黄金储备连续 8 个 月增长】国家外汇管理局发布的统计数据显示，截至 2025 年 6 月末， 我国外汇储备规模为 33174 亿美元，较 5 月末上升 322 亿美元，升幅 为 0.98%。2025 年 6 月末，我国黄金储备为 7 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating that easing international conditions and domestic policy stimulus will positively influence the sector's performance [3][42]. - The overall retail sales in May 2025 reached 4.13 trillion, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with goods retail sales increasing by 6.5% [11][14]. Beauty and Personal Care - In May 2025, the cosmetics retail sales grew by 4.4%, with high online penetration leading to diminishing promotional effects. However, leading domestic brands are expected to outperform the market due to the trend of domestic product substitution [11][12]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with rising sales expense ratios expected to pressure profit margins for some brands, although top players with strong product innovation may still achieve robust growth [11][12]. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw a significant year-on-year growth of 21.8% in May 2025, benefiting from a low base effect from the previous year. Products that appeal to younger consumers are expected to drive higher growth rates [11][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to May 2025, department store sales slightly increased by 1.3%, while supermarket sales grew by 5.7%. Companies that adapt to the current value-for-money consumption trend through supply chain upgrades are expected to perform better [12][14]. Cross-Border E-commerce - The second quarter is expected to face short-term performance pressures due to external environmental challenges. However, leading platform companies are anticipated to demonstrate strong resilience in the medium to long term due to flexible tariff responses and solid product capabilities [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different sectors, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Recommended companies include 毛戈平, 丸美生物, and 登康口腔, which are expected to benefit from domestic product substitution and channel optimization [3][42]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies like 老铺黄金 and 潮宏基 are highlighted for their potential to achieve accelerated growth due to favorable market conditions [3][42]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Recommended companies include 小商品城 and 安克创新, which are positioned to capitalize on improving trade conditions [3][42]. - Retail: Companies such as 名创优品 and 重庆百货 are suggested for their low valuation and potential for improvement [3][42].

证券研究报告|商贸零售 [Table_Title] 情绪消费兴起，关注潮玩、黄金珠宝、美 妆赛道 2025 年 07 月 07 日 [Table_Chart] 行业相对沪深 300 指数表现 [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 [Table_ReportType]——2025 年中期商贸零售行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 回顾与展望：消费分级时代来临，情绪消费兴起带火相关产业发展。我国 消费现状已从过去的"消费升级" 逐步进入到"消费分级"的新阶段， 具体体现为：1）更加追求性价比：对于那些技术附加值较低、产品同质 化严重的传统消费品，消费者表现出更理性、更追求性价比的行为；2） 愿意对部分新型产品或服务付出一定溢价。快节奏的生活方式和信息过 载等因素影响当代人的心理健康，推动情绪消费兴起，加之随着时代的发 展，我国消费结构从生存型消费往享受型、精神型消费扩展，潮玩、古法 金、美容护肤等相关行业受到追捧。 潮玩：我国潮玩市场快速扩容，优质企业有望实现强者恒强。受益于人均 可支配收入的增长、情绪消费兴起以及国内潮流文化和优质 IP 的 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices has led consumers to deliberate on whether to purchase gold, particularly for jewelry or investment purposes [1] - The current gold price is influenced by international market trends, interest rate expectations, and heightened risk aversion [4] Price Trends - Major gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are quoting prices between 1003-1005 yuan per gram, an increase of 5-7 yuan from previous prices [4] - China Gold's price is lower at 969 yuan per gram, allowing for significant savings when purchasing larger quantities [4] Price Differentiation - The price of jewelry gold is significantly higher than investment gold due to factors like craftsmanship, brand premium, and operational costs [5] - For example, a 10-gram gold chain from Chow Tai Fook costs approximately 10,050 yuan, while an equivalent investment gold bar costs around 7,850 yuan, highlighting a price difference of 2,200 yuan [5] Purchasing Strategies - For investment purposes, it is advisable to choose investment gold bars or wholesale gold, which have lower premiums and are closer to international gold prices [6] - For personal use or collection, consumers should compare prices across different brands to find the best deal [8] - For savings or appreciation, it is recommended to wait for a slight correction in international gold prices or to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate investment risks [8] Timing for Purchase - Concerns about buying at a peak are valid, but high price levels do not necessarily indicate an imminent drop [9] - Gold investment should focus on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [9] - If there is a pressing need and funds can be held long-term, short-term price fluctuations may be less impactful [9] Conclusion - The ongoing rise in gold prices necessitates careful consideration in purchasing decisions [10] - Consumers should align their gold product choices and timing with their specific needs to avoid unnecessary losses and achieve investment goals [10]

老铺黄金 20250706 摘要 老铺黄金定位为中国高客单奢侈品黄金珠宝品牌，截至 2024 年底拥有 36 家直营门店，实现收入约 85 亿元，同比增长 168%，归母净利润约 14.7 亿元，同比增长 254%。预计 2025 年归母净利至少 45 亿以上。 中国古法金市场规模从 2018 年的 130 亿元增长到 2023 年的近 1,600 亿元，复合增长率达 65%，预计 2024 年至 2028 年仍保持 25%以上 的增速，老铺黄金作为领导者，受益于此趋势。 老铺黄金采用全直营模式，门店主要位于一线和新一线城市高端购物中 心，覆盖率超过 80%，在高净值人群中具备与国际一线珠宝品牌媲美的 知名度和市场认知度。 北京 SKP 门店表现突出，第一季度已实现 7.8 亿销售额，达到去年全年 水平，成熟门店未来电效预计可达 10 亿元，平效远超 Tiffany、梵克雅 宝等品牌。 公司计划在 2025 年和 2026 年新增 10 家自营门店，并将在中国香港、 中国澳门、新加坡及日本继续扩展门店，海外市场具备深挖空间。 Q&A 为什么东吴证券继续看好老铺黄金的股价创新高？ 老铺黄金成立于 2009 年， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Xtep International, among others [10]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the sportswear sector is stable, with a forecasted slowdown in revenue growth for Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 due to fluctuations in the consumer environment [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing significant disparities in performance among companies, influenced by high gold prices and varying consumer demand for gold jewelry [3][29]. Summary by Sections Sportswear Sector - The sportswear companies are expected to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 as of the end of Q2 2025, despite a forecasted revenue growth slowdown [1][15]. - Anta Sports is projected to achieve over 10% revenue growth in H1 2025, while Li Ning's revenue is expected to remain flat with a 20% decline in net profit [1][18]. - Xtep International is anticipated to see a 5% revenue growth and a 10% increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. - 361 Degrees is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% and a similar increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. A-Share Brand Apparel - The A-share brand apparel sector is experiencing stable terminal retail performance, but individual company performance is diverging [2][20]. - Companies like Hailan Home are expected to see a revenue growth of 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while Steady Medical is projected to grow by 15% to 25% [2][24]. - The report indicates that companies with healthy terminal performance and effective cost management may see year-on-year growth, while those struggling with revenue scale may face pressure [2][20]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry expected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2025 [3][29]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and market competitiveness, with Chow Tai Fook expected to see a 10% increase in operating profit year-on-year [7][29]. - However, companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are projected to experience revenue declines of 20% to 10% and 15% to 5%, respectively, due to fluctuating consumer demand [3][29]. Apparel Manufacturing - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see stable output in finished garments, while upstream textile manufacturing orders are affected by pessimistic expectations [3][6]. - Shenzhou International is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% in H1 2025, while Wei Xing Co. is expected to see a decline in both revenue and net profit by 10% to 15% [3][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies with integrated and international supply chains are likely to outperform the industry in the medium to long term [3][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid development of the "New Oxygen Youth Clinic" and the significant changes in the shareholding structure of "Beautiful Garden" following the exit of major shareholder CPE [5][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - The retail industry index closed at 2152.72 points, down 0.16%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.40% [7][14] - The retail sector has seen a decline of 3.85% year-to-date [14][17] Industry Dynamics - CPE plans to sell approximately 51.33 million shares (about 21.77%) of "Beautiful Garden," leading to a significant change in the company's shareholding structure [5][24] - "New Oxygen" has transformed from an online platform to a chain of clinics, with a 551% year-on-year increase in revenue for its chain business in Q1 2025 [5][27] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on differentiated product capabilities and consumer insights in the gold and jewelry sector, recommending companies like "Old Shop Gold," "Chao Hong Ji," and "Zhou Dafu" [8][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies that actively adapt to trends, recommending "Yonghui Supermarket" and "Aiying Room" [8][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands with strong differentiation, recommending "Mao Ge Ping," "Po Lai Ya," and "Shang Mei" [8][30] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers, recommending "Ai Mei Ke" and "Ke Di-B" [8][30] Company-Specific Insights - "Zhou Dafu" reported a revenue of 896.56 million HKD for FY2025, down 17.5%, with a focus on improving product structure and store quality [36][37] - "Old Shop Gold" achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion CNY for FY2024, up 167.5%, with a strong brand expansion strategy [31][32] - "Chao Hong Ji" reported a revenue of 2.252 billion CNY in Q1 2025, up 25.4%, driven by differentiated product offerings [39][40] - "Zhou Da Sheng" faced revenue pressure with a 47.3% decline in Q1 2025, but future growth potential is anticipated through brand optimization [42]