Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. Currently, the market has digested the impact of the tariff issue. The US - EU tariff problem remains intense, and there are positive signals from trade agreements after the visit to Japan. The market shows no concern about the potential dollar liquidity pressure from Powell's situation and US fiscal debt issuance. With stable external macro - liquidity, the market has strong expectations for China's "expanding domestic demand" and "anti - involution" policies, and the short - term risk preference is expected to remain oscillating strongly, waiting for clearer macro - policies [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 1.33% last week. Agricultural products and precious metals had larger increases of 1.44% and 1.29% respectively, while black, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous metals rose 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.37% respectively. The inflow of funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][5] - **Individual Varieties**: Among individual varieties, crude oil, rapeseed meal, and industrial silicon had the highest increases of 3.52%, 3.38%, and 3.33% respectively. LPG, urea, and lead had larger declines of 2.48%, 1.58%, and 1.49% respectively [1][5] 3.2 Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: The market continued its strong trend, with silver performing prominently. Silver futures rose more than gold due to the dollar's decline, increased macro - easing expectations, and the improvement of industrial products' prices boosting silver's industrial attributes. Gold maintained a high - level oscillation supported by safe - haven demand and weak inflation data, benefiting from the continuous expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: They continued the oscillating and strengthening pattern. Main varieties like copper and aluminum rebounded slightly due to low inventory and overseas supply disruptions. The demand for non - ferrous metals is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, and the electrolytic copper market still has medium - term support [2] - **Black Metals**: Steel prices rebounded significantly under cost support and production - limit rumors. Iron ore and coking coal prices also strengthened. The market's pessimistic sentiment about steel fundamentals has eased, although the actual terminal demand still needs further observation [2] - **Energy**: Crude oil prices rose slightly, supported by geopolitical tensions (especially in the Middle East) and the demand during the summer travel season. Concerns about global supply tightening and the decline in US crude oil inventories further promoted the stabilization and recovery of oil prices. Domestic energy varieties such as fuel oil and crude oil futures continued to rebound [3] - **Chemicals**: The market was generally firm, and some varieties continued to recover. The stabilization of crude oil at the cost end drove the sentiment of the entire chemical industry to improve. Products like PVC and PTA benefited from downstream replenishment and the decline in industry operating rates, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not fully improved, and short - term price fluctuations are still uncertain [3] - **Agricultural Products**: They rose slightly this week. Rapeseed meal rebounded due to the relief of import pressure and the decline in domestic oil mill operations. The oil and fat sector oscillated at a high level under international market influence. Corn and wheat stopped falling and rebounded due to the relief of inventory pressure and weather speculation. Policy support for food security and planting structure adjustment will continue to affect the market [3] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with an average return of around 0.4%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 1,549.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.82%. The total trading volume decreased by 34.33% [34] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a return of 0.39%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 2.43%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of - 0.45%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81%. The total scale of commodity ETFs was 1,617.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.59%, and the total trading volume decreased by 16.30% [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the commodity price index in China increased by 0.5% month-on-month in June, reaching 110.8 points [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 17 experienced a month-on-month price increase [1] - The chemical price index continued to rise, while the energy price index rebounded due to rising international crude oil prices and increased costs of gasoline and diesel products [1] Group 2 - The agricultural product price index showed a slight decline, influenced by rising temperatures and the seasonal decrease in end-user consumption, leading to slight price drops in some varieties [1] - The black and mineral price indices continued to decline [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This policy signal has led to a noticeable recovery in the sentiment of the bulk commodity market, with some investors anticipating market benefits similar to those from the supply-side structural reforms of 2016 [3][4]. Policy Impact Analysis - Different periods may have varying policy focuses, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the core impact range of policies. Attention should be directed towards industries with severe overcapacity, widespread losses, high proportions of outdated capacity, and strong policy constraints [4]. - Industries such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and PVC currently exhibit persistently low profit levels, aligning with the main objectives of policy regulation. The sustainability of profit improvement in these industries hinges on the enforcement strength of policies and the effectiveness of actual capacity clearance [4][5]. Historical Context - The aluminum industry serves as an example where strong policy constraints successfully led to sustained profit improvements during the last capacity reduction phase. Historical experience indicates that there is a certain lag between policy issuance and market rebound, ultimately relying on strict enforcement to achieve profit redistribution within the industry chain [4]. Current Industry Status - Leading companies in industries like polysilicon are beginning to formulate capacity optimization plans. However, due to differences in company nature, interest conflicts, and market constraints, the realization of substantial capacity clearance in the industry will require more time for validation [5]. Profit and Capacity Overview - A summary of key indicators for various bulk commodities, including profit levels, capacity concentration, and the nature of enterprises, has been compiled for reference [6]. - For example, the profit margins and capacity concentration for several commodities are as follows: - PVC: -13% profit margin, 40% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Polysilicon: -13.5% profit margin, 82.23% capacity concentration, private enterprises [10] - Urea: 20% profit margin, 28% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Copper products show varying profit margins, with electrolytic copper at 0.31% and lithium battery copper foil at 26.07% [10].

Industry Overview Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View The report provides an overview of various industries, including production, service, upstream,中游, downstream, and market pricing, highlighting recent trends and developments in each sector. Summary by Category Production and Service Industries - Shanghai plans to build a world - class ship and offshore engineering equipment industrial cluster, aiming for an industry added - value of over 45 billion yuan by 2030 and a localisation rate of over 85% for large LNG carriers [1]. - The memory market, led by DDR4, is rapidly warming up, with DDR4 particle prices doubling in just two weeks [1]. - Six departments have issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [1]. - Retirement pensions are exempt from personal income tax in Beijing [1]. Upstream - International oil prices decreased significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - Coal inventory in Qinhuangdao decreased [2]. - Egg prices have rebounded recently [2]. Midstream - The polyester operating rate declined, while the PX operating rate increased [3]. - The coal consumption of power plants dropped to a three - year low, and the power plant operating rate decreased [3]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low [4]. - The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the entire industry has slightly declined recently [5]. Industry Credit Spread - The credit spreads of multiple industries, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry, have declined this week [48]. Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, energy, and chemicals, have shown different trends, with some rising and some falling [49].

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently lacking catalysts, leading to increased volatility pressure. The downward space for large-cap stocks is relatively limited under the support of the Central Huijin Investment. Short-term focus is recommended on defensive sectors such as banks and low-volatility dividend stocks [2][4] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are facing higher adjustment risks in the short term, suggesting that investors should wait for risk release before seeking more cost-effective investment opportunities [2][4] Stock Market Factors - The large-cap value style remains dominant in the market, while the volatility of both large and small-cap styles has decreased. The volatility of value and growth styles is at a near-year low [6][8] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices is at a near-year low, with a decrease in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][8] - Market activity remains low, with the market volatility at a near-year low and a slight increase in turnover rate [7][8] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has decreased, while the trend strength of agricultural products has increased. The basis momentum of precious metals and non-ferrous metals has rapidly declined [19][22] - The volatility of energy and precious metals has slightly increased, while other sectors remain at near-year low volatility levels. Liquidity performance is mixed across sectors, with the energy sector at a near-year high in liquidity [19][22] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the implied volatility of CSI 1000 remaining at historically low levels. The skewness of put options for CSI 1000 has increased, indicating a temporary alleviation of market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [28] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, valuations continue to rise, with the premium rate for bonds converting at 100 yuan increasing and approaching the peak seen in May. The proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums has significantly decreased, while market transaction volume remains stable within a fluctuating range [31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index of the stock index sector has stable support below and needs a driver to break through above. The A - share market opened lower and rebounded, showing a phased stabilization. The international situation is changeable in the short - term, and the index will mainly fluctuate within a range. The bond market may be affected by the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. Precious metals are affected by factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the Fed's monetary expectations, with gold and silver prices fluctuating in certain ranges. Various industrial and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and seasonal factors, showing different price trends and market outlooks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable lower support and needs a driver for upward breakthrough. A - shares opened lower and rebounded, showing phased stabilization. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply - discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option around 6300 to form a covered combination [2] Treasury Bonds - Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. If bond - buying restarts, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may break through 1.6%. Otherwise, the bond market may face phased callback pressure. In the unilateral strategy, appropriate long positions can be configured on adjustments for Treasury bond futures. In the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive - carry strategy of the TS2509 contract [2] Precious Metals - Short - term news affects gold prices to fluctuate widely between $3300 - $3400. It is recommended to continue selling out - of - the - money call options. Silver prices are fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $37. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money options for Shanghai silver [2] Shipping Index (European Line) - Low airline quotes drive the EC futures to fall. The 08 main contract fluctuates narrowly between 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on the sidelines for now. Pay attention to the long - materials and short - raw - materials arbitrage operation [2] Steel - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the iron ore market, iron - making water remains at a high level, and terminal demand shows resilience. Try short - selling on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from the high level, and spot prices are weakly stable. Consider going long on coking coal at low prices or long coking coal and short coke. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the price is close to the phased bottom. Consider long coking coal and short coke [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, and other non - ferrous metals show different price trends and market characteristics. For example, copper has a narrow - range fluctuation in the main contract, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a high - selling strategy for tin based on inventory and import data inflection points [2] Energy - For crude oil, geopolitical risks are still uncertain in the short - term, and fundamental factors need to be considered in the long - term. Unilateral operations should wait for the situation to become clearer. For urea, short - term demand cannot support high prices, and pay attention to agricultural demand and export conditions in July. For PX and PTA, they may be dragged down by the fall in oil prices due to the decline in geopolitical premiums [2] Chemicals - Different chemical products have different market outlooks. For example, short - fiber has an expected repair of processing fees under the expectation of factory production cuts. Bottle - chip is in the demand peak season, with an expected production cut and processing fees bottoming out [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, cotton, and eggs show different price trends and market characteristics. For example, soybeans follow the decline of US soybeans, and pay attention to subsequent weather - related speculation. Pig prices have rebounded due to hoarding and second - fattening, and the market sentiment is strong [2] Special Commodities - For soda ash, the surplus logic continues, and maintain a high - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the spot market's goods - moving situation has improved, and the short - term futures price has support [2] New Energy - For polysilicon, supply has increased, and the futures price has fallen with increased positions. For lithium carbonate, the futures price remains weak, and the fundamental pressure continues [2]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Group 2: Specific Commodity Movements - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to influence short-term asset pricing and market direction [1] - There are expectations of Iranian responses that could impact energy prices, with a focus on monitoring implied volatility in energy markets and offshore dollar liquidity [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and Investment Trends - International gold prices are stabilizing at high levels, supported by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions and ongoing global central bank gold purchases continue to provide support for gold prices, while silver is affected by fluctuations in manufacturing data [1] Group 5: Non-Ferrous Metals and Market Dynamics - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with copper prices stabilizing due to tight overseas inventories and ongoing global investment in new energy [1] - Aluminum prices are supported near the cost line for electrolytic aluminum, with market attention on electricity costs and inventory depletion [1] Group 6: Black Metals and Policy Impacts - Steel futures are rebounding, driven by expectations of "stabilizing growth" policies and production restrictions in Tangshan [1] - Iron ore prices are influenced by seasonal rainfall in Brazil, leading to decreased port inventories and price stabilization alongside steel [1] Group 7: Energy Sector Developments - Crude oil futures have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and unexpected declines in U.S. oil inventories [1] - OPEC+ production cuts are being effectively implemented, with positive expectations for summer oil demand driving prices higher [1] Group 8: Chemical and Agricultural Products - The chemical sector is generally strong, buoyed by rising energy prices, with methanol, PTA, and fuel oil seeing price increases [1] - Agricultural products show a mixed performance, with oilseeds and oils experiencing strength due to domestic production cuts and policy support, while corn faces pressure from import competition [1]

Market Overview - The commodity market saw an overall increase of 2.29% last week, with significant gains in the energy sector at 4.11% [1] - Agricultural products and black metals rose by 2.10% and 0.91% respectively, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals experienced declines of 1.76% and 0.09% [1] Specific Commodity Performance - Crude oil, methanol, and short fibers had the highest closing price increases at 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively [1] - Precious metals like gold, pulp, and silver saw notable declines of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1] Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - There was a decrease in capital flow, primarily influenced by outflows from precious metals [1] - The evolving situation in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, is expected to impact short-term asset pricing and market dynamics [1] Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices surged due to tensions in the Middle East and a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with OPEC+ effectively executing production cuts [1] - Positive expectations for summer oil demand have led to increases in fuel and asphalt prices [1] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector generally strengthened due to rising energy prices, with methanol and other products experiencing a rebound [1] - However, the recovery of downstream demand remains uncertain, indicating a market driven by trading rather than sustained growth [1] Agricultural Sector Analysis - The oilseed and oil sector showed a strong upward trend, supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, despite weak soybean exports [1] - Corn prices faced pressure due to import substitution and declining profitability, while the hog market experienced fluctuations amid seasonal consumption declines [1]