Group 1 - The A-share market showed a significant upward trend in January 2026, with major indices rising, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI 500, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.8% [5][10] - Market trading volume increased significantly, with a record high of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026, reflecting a recovery in investor sentiment [10][18] - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with non-ferrous metals and media leading gains, while banking and home appliances lagged behind [15][18] Group 2 - The report suggests maintaining a "growth + value" strategy in the Hong Kong stock market, as the overall trend is positive due to earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and low valuations [3][4] - The report emphasizes that small-cap stocks typically outperform during the spring market, driven by increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investors [71][88] - Key sectors to focus on include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications, which are expected to perform well in February 2026 [3][4][73] Group 3 - The spring market is anticipated to be characterized by a focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with historical data indicating that these sectors often perform well during this period [73][88] - The report highlights that the consumer sector may receive policy support, as the government emphasizes domestic demand and market expansion [88][89] - Earnings forecasts for 2025 show improvement across various industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals, steel, and media, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [61][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - The future industry is expected to become a new economic growth point, with significant potential in quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G technology. The report emphasizes the need for strategic planning and government support due to the long cultivation cycle and high market risks associated with future industries [1][11] - Quantum technology is highlighted as the leading sector within future industries, with four key areas expected to drive disruptive innovation: quantum computing, quantum communication, quantum measurement, and post-quantum cryptography [2][12] - Embodied intelligence is identified as a crucial application of artificial intelligence, facilitating the development of humanoid robots and advancing the robotics industry [2][12] - The second phase of 6G technology trials has been initiated in China, with over 300 key technologies developed, focusing on integrating satellite internet as a foundational infrastructure for 6G [3][13] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market - A" rating, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by 10% or more over the next six months [5][24] Future Industry Overview - The future industry encompasses a wide range of sectors, including information technology, bio-manufacturing, energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing, with substantial investment value due to its broad development space [1][11] Quantum Technology - Quantum computing is poised to solve complex problems beyond the capabilities of traditional computers, with potential breakthroughs in drug discovery and materials science. Quantum communication aims to enhance secure information transmission, while quantum measurement will improve precision in various fields [2][12] Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligence enhances AI's ability to interact with environments, leading to measurable and verifiable applications. Humanoid robots are expected to be key carriers of these algorithms, paving the way for general artificial intelligence [2][12] 6G Technology - The report notes that the first phase of 6G technology trials has been completed, with the second phase now underway, focusing on creating an integrated network that includes satellite internet as a critical infrastructure component [3][13]

证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 量化择时周报：趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《量化择时周报：牛市格局仍在延 续，主题投资重回主线》2026-01-25 2、《沪深 300 增强策略本周超额收益 3.90%》2026-01-25 3、《净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 1.99%》2026-01-18 报告摘要 趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 上周周报（20260125）认为：尽管 ETF 份额的持续下降，对市场有短线压力，但在 每日近 3 万亿金额的成交下，预计影响也较为有限，市场上行趋势仍将延续。最终 WIND 全 A 在 ETF 份额持续下降的影响和周五周期股大幅回调的影响下，全周下跌 1.59%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 1000 下跌 2.55%，中盘股中证 500 指数下跌 2.56 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in January 2026, with major indices showing gains, particularly the ChiNext 50 and CSI 500, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8% [6][12][22] - The market is expected to enter a short-term correction phase before the Spring Festival, influenced by tightening liquidity and reduced trading enthusiasm among investors [4][38] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market typically performs better in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, with a 75% probability of gains compared to less than 45% before the holiday [38][40] Group 2 - In the upcoming spring market, small-cap stocks are anticipated to outperform, driven by increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investor capital [52][54] - The focus should be on growth and cyclical sectors, with industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications expected to perform well in February [2][54] - The Hong Kong market is advised to adopt a "growth + value" strategy, benefiting from earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and supportive policies [2][65] Group 3 - The spring market is characterized by a dual focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with historical trends showing that both categories often perform well during this period [54][61] - The technology sector, particularly AI and commercial aerospace, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with potential catalysts expected to drive performance [61][64] - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting from being driven by capital to being driven by earnings, indicating a transition towards long-term value investing [2][65]

转自：新华财经 本周回顾 • 股票市场 本周（1月26日至1月30日）A股市场主要宽基指数悉数下跌。其中，上证指数周度下跌0.44%，深证成指周度下跌1.62%，创业板指周度下跌0.09%，新华500 指数周度下跌0.57%。新华500指数本周波动加大，开盘报5354.57点，至1月30日收盘报5306.68点，全周振幅3.01%，成交额为5.11万亿元。 大宗商品方面，在1月的最后一个交易周，贵金属市场走出罕见极端行情，黄金一路突破数道整百关口逼近5600美元／盎司，白银一度将历史新高刷新至120 美元／盎司上方，但随后双双迎来大反转。 现货黄金盘中一度跌破每盎司4700美元，收盘下跌9.6%，回到4860美元附近。现货白银价格盘中更是一度大跌超过30%，收盘则回到每盎司85美元附近。尽 管如此，COMEX黄金期货主力合约1月仍录得13%的涨幅，COMEX白银月度涨幅则超过20%。 国际油价连续四个交易日上涨，创下2022年以来的最大单月涨幅，布伦特原油本周一度重回70美元／桶。WTI原油全周累计上涨7.65%，1月累计涨幅达 14.49%；ICE布油累计涨幅为7.32%，1月累计涨幅为14.76%。 | ...

Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend around the Spring Festival in February 2026, with a focus on the "Technology + Resources" mainline market[3] - Key attention should be given to the earnings reports of US tech stocks and the potential validation of AI industry trends[3] Investment Strategy - Focus on three main lines: - Technology sector, including optical modules, storage, semiconductor equipment, and energy storage, addressing the issues of electricity shortages in the US, chip shortages domestically, and global storage shortages[3] - Non-ferrous metals, with increased volatility expected after January, particularly in industrial metals and chemicals[3] - Hot topics such as robots participating in the Spring Festival Gala and updates on AI large models[3] Recommended Stocks - **Metals**: Shandong Gold (EPS: 1.78, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Chemicals**: Juhua Co. (EPS: 2.51, PE: 15.7 in 2026E)[20] - **New Energy**: Junda Co. (EPS: 1.67, PE: 60.5 in 2026E)[20] - **Machinery**: Dier Laser (EPS: 2.87, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Military Industry**: Aero Engine Corporation (EPS: 0.35, PE: 132.9 in 2026E)[20] - **Non-Banking**: New China Life (EPS: 10.68, PE: 7.8 in 2026E)[20] - **Automotive**: Top Group (EPS: 1.92, PE: 37.7 in 2026E)[20] - **Electronics**: Jingce Electronics (EPS: 1.15, PE: 115.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Communication**: Zhongji Xuchuang (EPS: 17.40, PE: 37.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Media**: Giant Network (EPS: 2.12, PE: 20.8 in 2026E)[20] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation due to factors like slow job growth and reduced market demand[22] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could lead to substantial declines in revenue or net profit[22]

[Table_Title] 政策保驾护航，中长线资金入市仍是大趋势 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ·行业配置上，建议关注：1）高景气科技主线：如 AI 算力链、机器人、存储、储能等；2）逢低布局涨价相关周 期品种，如化工、有色等；3）受益于 AI 应用产业趋势方向，如港股互联网。 风险提示：全球经济超预期波动、政策效果不及预期、海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周 A 股主要指数分化，红利指数和上证 50 涨幅居前，北证 50、中证 2000 和科创 50 指领跌。资金 面上，市场日均成交额维持在 3 万亿元附近，显示投资者风险偏好高位运行。一级行业中，石 ...

- The report mentions a **cycle analysis model**, which is used to track market trends and identify potential stabilization signals. The model suggests that the market may have reached a small-scale stabilization point, indicating a shift into a short-term oscillation phase with a clearer oscillation range[2][7] - A **trend model** is also referenced, which remains in a bullish zone on a larger scale. This model supports the inference that the market's short-term movements are constrained within a two-way oscillation pattern[2][7] - The **industry rotation model** is highlighted, showing dispersed signals across various sectors. It identifies opportunities in low-valuation sectors like banking, adjusted sectors like media, and sectors that have been consolidating, such as communication and growth-oriented industries. This model suggests a balanced allocation strategy for the current market environment[7] - The **four-wheel drive industry model** is presented, which provides specific signals for sector opportunities. For example, it identifies potential opportunities in sectors like photovoltaic leaders, communication, and banking, as well as trading opportunities in growth-oriented sectors and media. The model uses signal types such as "potential opportunity" and "trading opportunity" to guide sector allocation[13]

本周（1月26日至30日），A股融资余额维持在2.7万亿元高位以上，最新为27222.32亿元（截至1月29日），为历史次高。本周A股融资净买入合计52.79亿 元。 分行业来看，有色金属遥遥领先，融资净买入额高达118.8亿元；基础化工、建筑装饰、医药生物、通信融资净买入额超过10亿元。电子遭到融资大额净 偿还，金额为78.5亿元；机械设备、国防军工紧随其后，融资净偿还额均在30亿元以上。 A股融资余额维持2.7万亿元高位。 这些个股融资客大幅买入 个股方面，本周31股融资净买入额在3亿元以上，紫金矿业、天孚通信、中国平安排名前三，融资净买入额依次为28.73亿元、25.59亿元、12.54亿元。 紫金矿业1月26日公告，公司控股的紫金黄金国际联合黄金签署《安排协议》，紫金黄金国际拟收购联合黄金全部已发行的普通股，其核心资产包括在产 的马里Sadiola金矿、科特迪瓦金矿综合体，及将于2026年下半年建成投产的埃塞俄比亚Kurmuk金矿。根据公开披露信息，截至2024年底，联合黄金拥有 金资源量533吨，平均品位1.48克/吨。 西部证券指出，从短期来看，标的均为在产或即将投产项目，并购当年即可贡献产量，叠 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI-driven sectors, particularly in servers and IDC, driven by domestic and international AI developments [4]. Core Insights - Major companies like Industrial Fulian, Meta, and Microsoft are showing strong growth in their earnings, driven by AI investments and demand for high-performance computing [1][53]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditures by tech giants, indicating a robust investment trend in AI infrastructure [1][61]. - The demand for optical modules and servers is expected to rise due to the ongoing expansion of AI capabilities and infrastructure [2][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The telecommunications sector is experiencing steady growth, with a reported revenue of 16,096 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.9% year-on-year increase [3][14]. - The optical module exports have seen a decline, with a 24% drop in November, attributed to domestic companies establishing overseas factories [3][35]. Company Performance - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 351-357 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 51%-54% increase year-on-year, driven by strong growth in cloud services and AI servers [1][53]. - Meta's revenue for Q4 reached $59.893 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year, supported by recovering advertising business and AI investments [1][53]. - NewEase is expected to achieve a net profit of 94-99 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 231.24%-248.86% due to increasing demand for high-speed products [1][55]. Market Trends - The server index decreased by 5.70% this week but has increased by 1.20% for the month, indicating volatility in the market [2][6]. - The optical module index rose by 10.07% this week, reflecting strong demand for high-speed optical devices [2][6]. - The IDC index increased by 3.50% this week, with a notable 11.04% rise for the month, driven by advancements in AI models [2][9]. Future Projections - Companies are expected to continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to increase its investment in AI and cloud computing from 380 billion yuan to 480 billion yuan over the next three years [1][12]. - The report anticipates that the demand for AI-related services and products will continue to grow, leading to further investment opportunities in the sector [4][35].