聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic rubber futures 2509 contract decreased by 0.27% to 14,730 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread widening to 180 CNY/ton [1] - Supply expectations are rising as the new cutting season approaches, while tire manufacturers face operational pressure ahead of the May Day holiday [1] Group 2: Methanol Market - Domestic methanol futures 2509 contract increased by 0.96% to 2,310 CNY/ton, with the 5-9 month spread narrowing to 79 CNY/ton [1] - Methanol production is on the rise, with weekly output averaging 1.899 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 210,100 tons [1] Group 3: Oil Market - Domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract rose by 0.83% to 498.0 CNY/barrel, with market sentiment showing mixed signals [1] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.46 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 360,000 barrels per day [1] Group 4: Tire Industry - The operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for all-steel tires was 65.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.65% [1] - The operating load for semi-steel tires was 72.36%, down 1.84 percentage points week-on-week and significantly down 8.64 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 5: Automotive Industry - In March, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.006 million and 2.915 million units, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 42.9% and 37% [1] - In Q1, cumulative automobile production and sales were 7.561 million and 7.470 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.5% and 11.2% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，原油震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：欧佩克+5 月会议对 6 月产量规划悬而未决，让市场担忧供应过剩压力会进一步加重。与 此同时，本周一西班牙和葡萄牙发生了大范围停电，包括西班牙第二大炼油运营商 Moeve 运营的 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 8 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 4 月 28 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围占优 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 14730 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.27%至 14730 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度扩大至 180 元/吨。虽然近期宏观情绪有所回暖，不过胶市供应预期回升，国内外 天胶产区即将迎来新一轮开割季，同时国内轮胎企业临近五一长假， 开工率面临回落压力，胶价反弹缺乏后续动力。 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2509 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 小幅上涨的走势，期价最高上涨至 2312 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2280 元/吨，收盘时小幅上涨 0.96%至 2310 元/吨。5-9 月差贴水幅度收敛 至 79 元/吨。近期宏观情绪有所回暖，不过甲醇供需基本面依然偏弱， 周度产量大幅走高，煤制甲醇开工率居高不下，后市甲醇继续上行空 间或受限，关注上方 20 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 油价稳定，下游负反馈或持续发酵 东海原油聚酯周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-4-28 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com 分析师： 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com 分析师： 主要内容 | | 原油 | 聚酯 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 长期中枢下移，短期反弹 关税缓和可能下油价保持稳定，而近期现货需求尚可， | 短期低位震荡 下游开工仍然偏高，但是终端开工进一步下行，加弹厂等虽 | | | 结构继续保持偏强状态，且炼厂利润反而回升，库存继 | 然短期略有补库，但成品库存仍然偏高，且关税扭转之前， | | | 续去化，油价支撑仍然存在，短期价格将保持窄幅震荡。 | 厂家主流仍保持低库存运行。以及五一放假时间可能较长， | | | 但哈萨克斯坦等增产将继续快于计划，供应回归幅度将 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种晨会纪要 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-28 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：国际原油市场风云突变，此前承诺作出补偿性减产的哈萨克斯坦宣称该国石油产量水平 由国家利益决定，不是 OPEC+产油国。哈萨克斯坦这样的言论无疑让市场进一步确定 OPEC+超产国家 ...