Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector showed a slight increase, primarily affected by the decline in the liquor segment. In May 2025, the sector's overall performance was a 0.25% increase, with significant net outflows from major funds totaling 15.43 billion yuan, while small investors showed a net inflow of 15.57 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment among retail investors [5][7]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has decreased slightly, currently at 21.50 times earnings, which is at a ten-year historical low. The liquor segment's valuation is even lower at 19.06 times [18][23]. - In May 2025, over 70% of the listed companies in the food and beverage sector saw their stock prices rise, with notable increases in other liquor, health products, snacks, dairy, and soft drinks [23][24]. - Investment in the food and beverage manufacturing sector has continued to grow significantly, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 16.6% year-on-year as of April 2025, compared to a 4% increase in overall social fixed asset investments [27][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight increase of 0.25% in May 2025, heavily influenced by the liquor segment's decline. Major funds saw a net outflow of 15.43 billion yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.57 billion yuan [5][7]. - The sector's performance was better than the same period last year, with significant gains in other liquor, health products, soft drinks, baking, and pre-processed foods, which rose by 20.71%, 19.62%, 10.99%, 8.25%, and 6.42% respectively [8][11]. 2. Valuation - As of May 31, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation is at 21.50 times earnings, slightly down from 21.59 times the previous month, marking a ten-year low. The liquor segment's valuation is at 19.06 times, while health products, snacks, and other segments exceed 30 times [18][23]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In May 2025, 90 out of 127 listed companies in the food and beverage sector reported stock price increases, with a rise rate of 70.87%. Notable performers included companies in the liquor, health products, dairy, and snack sectors [23][24]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector's investment growth has continued to exceed the overall social investment growth, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 16.6% year-on-year as of April 2025 [27][31]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in soft drinks, health products, baking, beer, and snacks for June 2025, highlighting the potential for growth in these segments [52][55].

Core Insights - The emergence of corn egg tarts has sparked significant attention due to their high price point, with some brands pricing them at 48 yuan each, leading to discussions about value for money and market positioning [1][3][4] - The market for baked goods is experiencing dynamic changes, with a high rate of new store openings and closures, indicating a competitive landscape where both premium and budget brands are vying for consumer attention [7][8] Pricing and Consumer Behavior - The pricing of corn egg tarts has become a hot topic, with some consumers finding the 48 yuan price tag excessive, while others appreciate the taste despite the cost [3][4] - Online platforms show a wide range of prices for corn egg tarts, with many stores offering them between 9 to 20 yuan, indicating a shift towards more affordable options [4][5] Market Trends and Innovations - The corn egg tart's success is attributed to its unique flavor profile and the novelty it brings to the traditional tart market, appealing to consumers' desire for new experiences [5][6] - Social media has played a crucial role in amplifying the popularity of corn egg tarts, with platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu driving consumer interest and engagement [5][6] Industry Growth and Future Outlook - The baking industry is projected to grow, with estimates suggesting a market size of 1,160 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing consumer demand for baked goods as part of emotional wellness [7][8] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a "pyramid pricing structure," where premium brands coexist with budget-friendly options, catering to diverse consumer needs [8][9] Brand Strategies and Consumer Preferences - Brands are focusing on balancing quality and price to attract consumers, with high-end brands needing to enhance their unique selling propositions while budget brands must ensure consistent quality [9][10] - Digital capabilities are identified as a common area for improvement across both high-end and budget brands, emphasizing the need for better data-driven operations and customer engagement strategies [10]

以下文章来源于剁椒Spicy ，作者剁椒团队 剁椒Spicy . 专注于电商、营销、流量生态，以及消费者洞察的全新商业自媒体 本文来自微信公众号： 剁椒Spicy ，作者：Mia，原文标题：《谁杀死了面包第一股？一场由山姆、 711、三只松鼠们发动的绞杀》，头图来自：AI生成 2025年第一季度财报犹如一记重锤。数据显示，桃李面包营收同比暴跌14.2%至12.01亿元，归母净 利润更是雪崩式下滑27.07%，仅剩8403.72万元，毛利率与净利率也双双跳水，创下上市以来最惨烈 单季表现。 | 单位: | | --- | | 元 币种: | | 人民币 | | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同期 增减变动幅度(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1, 201, 171, 488. 40 | 1, 400, 002, 318. 86 | -14. 20 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 84, 037, 214. 32 | 115, 230, 925. 14 | -27.07 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润 | 79, ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the unprecedented challenges faced by the once-dominant bakery brand, Tao Li Bread, indicating a significant decline in its market position and financial performance [1][11][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tao Li Bread reported a revenue drop of 14.2% year-on-year to 1.201 billion yuan, with net profit plummeting by 27.07% to 84.04 million yuan, marking the worst quarterly performance since its listing [2][3]. - From 2021 to 2024, the company's revenue growth rate fell from 6.24% to -9.93%, and net profit has been declining for four consecutive years [3][12]. Market Dynamics - The traditional packaged bread market is experiencing a "mid-life crisis," with Tao Li's struggles reflecting broader industry challenges, including competition from fresh-baked goods and convenience store offerings [10][8]. - The market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with new brands like A1 Snack Research Institute and Xiao Bai Xin Li Ruan gaining traction, while established brands like Dali and Man Ke Dun are facing significant setbacks [26][19][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with convenience stores and new entrants offering fresh products that appeal to consumers, thereby eroding the market share of traditional brands like Tao Li [8][36]. - Tao Li's reliance on traditional supermarket channels is becoming a liability, as evidenced by a net loss of 144 distributors in 2024, highlighting the need for adaptation to new market realities [15][14]. Consumer Preferences - Consumer perceptions are changing, with a growing acceptance of medium and long-shelf-life products, challenging the traditional notion that "short shelf-life equals freshness" [27][20]. - New brands are leveraging innovative marketing and product differentiation to capture market share, while traditional brands struggle with product innovation and adaptation [30][29]. Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift from industrialized production to scenario-based competition, necessitating traditional brands to rethink their strategies to survive [10][39]. - The rise of self-branded products in convenience stores and supermarkets is further intensifying competition, as these products often offer better pricing and perceived value [32][34]. Future Directions - The article suggests that the future of the packaged bread industry lies in exploring new consumer scenarios and adapting to changing market dynamics, rather than relying solely on traditional distribution channels [46][51]. - Brands are encouraged to innovate in product offerings and marketing strategies to better align with consumer needs and preferences in a rapidly evolving market [47][50].

值得注意的是，这并非个案。在其他网红烘焙店中，类似开放式陈列现象普遍存在，部分商家虽采取塑料膜覆盖或玻璃隔断，但仍难以完全避免食品暴露风 险。 近日，上海网红面包店"伦敦烘焙小镇"因食品卫生问题被监管部门要求整改，引发公众对网红餐饮行业食品安全管理的关注。 据网友爆料显示，"伦敦烘焙小镇"位于静安区吴江路的旗舰店内，大量面包、蛋糕直接裸露在开放式货架上，未采取任何防尘措施，存在明显的卫生隐患。 随后，市场监管部门介入调查，确认该店部分区域食品防尘措施不完善，要求其立即整改。据智通财经报道，记者走访发现，面包区已加装透明防尘罩，但 蛋糕区仍处于"裸卖"状态。店员解释称，蛋糕区的防护措施将"尽快落实"，但整改进度显然未能一步到位。 伦敦烘焙小镇凭借"英伦风"装修和高颜值产品迅速走红，开业初期甚至出现排队抢购的盛况。然而，消费者的热情背后，食品安全问题却被忽视。有顾客坦 言，此前购买时并未在意食品裸露问题，直到监管部门介入才意识到潜在风险。 显然，部分商家为营造"新鲜现制"的消费体验，刻意采用开放式陈列，但这不应成为牺牲食品安全的理由。未来，行业或需在透明防护、店员取货等模式上 寻求平衡，既满足消费者对"食欲刺激" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative dessert shop "Cream or Cruller," founded by renowned chef Ryohta Hirako, which combines elements of cream puffs and French crullers into a new dessert category called "choux Cruller" [1][5][19]. Summary by Sections Introduction to the Chef and New Store - Ryohta Hirako, a creative Italian chef, partnered with another legendary baker to establish "AMAM DACOTAN" and later opened "I'm Donut?" focusing on visually appealing and trendy desserts [1][3]. New Dessert Concept - "Cream or Cruller," opening on May 2, 2025, in Shibuya, specializes in a new dessert called "choux Cruller," which merges the soft texture of cream puffs with the spiral shape of crullers [3][5][6]. Characteristics of Choux Cruller - The choux Cruller features a soft outer shell and a caramelized bottom, with a unique dough that combines cream puff and French pastry elements, available in original and cocoa flavors [6][8][10]. Unique Selling Proposition - The dessert is designed for on-the-go consumption, being small and easy to eat, with a focus on different dipping sauces that enhance the tasting experience [10][12][30]. Minimalist Approach - The shop adopts a minimalist philosophy, stripping down desserts to their essential components, allowing for a focus on flavor and texture rather than excessive decoration [20][22][24]. Market Trends - The article notes a shift in Tokyo's dessert scene towards "lightweight" aesthetics, favoring simplicity and the natural flavors of ingredients over elaborate designs [26][29]. Consumer Preferences - The trend of "grab-and-go" desserts is highlighted, with products designed for easy consumption in various settings, appealing to younger generations who prefer low-burden eating experiences [30][31]. Social Media and Branding - The packaging and presentation of the desserts are crafted to enhance social media appeal, encouraging customers to share their experiences online [16][33][35].

Core Viewpoint - The baking industry is undergoing a deep transformation focused on health, with a shift in consumer perspective from "eating well" to "understanding what to eat," leading to increased interest in ingredient transparency and nutrition [1][5] Group 1: Introduction of Barley - Barley, specifically highland barley, is gaining attention in the baking industry as a valuable grain solution [1] - The introduction of highland barley pre-mixed flour by Nanshun Group at the 2025 Bakery China exhibition highlights the potential of traditional grains in modern baking [1][5] Group 2: Nutritional Benefits of Barley - Highland barley has a long cultivation history in regions like Tibet, Qinghai, and Yunnan, and is known for its nutritional value, including high dietary fiber, low fat and sugar content, and potential cardiovascular benefits [7][8] - These characteristics align with current health trends such as "sugar control," "light meals," and "whole grains," making barley a key focus in health food development [8] Group 3: Challenges in Baking with Barley - Despite its health benefits, barley presents challenges in baking, such as poor fermentation and texture issues compared to wheat flour, which complicates its use in traditional baking [11] - The industry faces hurdles in standardizing production and consumer acceptance, with many barley-based products remaining conceptual rather than commercially viable [11] Group 4: Innovations in Barley Products - Nanshun's new barley pre-mixed flour series represents a significant engineering transformation of health ingredients, allowing for broader application in daily baking while maintaining taste [17] - The series includes three products: barley European bread pre-mixed flour, barley pastry pre-mixed flour, and barley bread pre-mixed flour, achieving a barley content of at least 37% [21] Group 5: Market Potential and Future Directions - The introduction of barley products indicates a shift from barley being seen merely as a health symbol to a scalable and operational raw material solution [24] - The successful integration of barley into various baked goods, such as cakes and breads, showcases its versatility and potential to redefine health standards in the industry [26][32] Group 6: Broader Implications for the Industry - The rise of barley reflects a deeper transformation in the raw material ecosystem, moving from a focus on stability and cost-effectiveness to nutrition, regional characteristics, and diverse grains [39] - The ongoing efforts to incorporate barley into modern food narratives highlight the importance of balancing technology and taste while rebuilding consumer trust in traditional food resources [39]

Core Viewpoint - The rising popularity and high prices of corn egg tarts have sparked consumer dissatisfaction and highlighted broader industry issues related to pricing and consumer perception [4][5][13]. Group 1: Price Discrepancies and Consumer Reactions - The price of corn egg tarts has reached as high as 48 yuan each, while the cost of corn at the production level is around 1 yuan per pound, leading to public outrage over perceived price gouging [4][5]. - The phenomenon of "bread assassins" has been noted in the baking industry, with high prices for various baked goods causing consumer frustration [5]. - Social media platforms have seen significant engagement with the corn egg tart topic, with 700 million views on Douyin and 67.15 million on Xiaohongshu, indicating a strong consumer interest and reaction [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The corn egg tart has replaced previous baking trends, such as butter rice cakes, showcasing the cyclical nature of popular baked goods [7]. - Different pricing strategies exist among various vendors, with some offering corn egg tarts for as low as 8 yuan at chain bakeries, contrasting sharply with the high prices at trendy shops [9]. - The corn egg tart's rise can be attributed to consumer curiosity and the marketing strategies of businesses, which have capitalized on social media trends [11]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Perception - Many consumers exhibit a "follow the crowd" mentality, purchasing corn egg tarts due to social influence rather than personal preference, often leading to disappointment with the product quality [8][9]. - The perception of high prices has led to discussions about the value of ingredients and the actual cost of production, with estimates suggesting that the raw material cost for a corn egg tart is around 5-6 yuan [9][13]. - The debate surrounding the corn egg tart reflects broader concerns about the pricing strategies in the baking industry, where consumer sensitivity to price plays a significant role in purchasing decisions [16]. Group 4: Longevity of Baking Trends - The article discusses the transient nature of trendy baked goods, suggesting that while some may achieve lasting popularity, many will fade as consumer interest shifts [15][16]. - Successful long-term products often balance quality and affordability, moving away from the high prices associated with initial trends [17][18]. - The baking industry ultimately relies on efficient supply chain management and production processes to maintain competitive pricing and product availability [18].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of the corn tart, priced at 48 yuan, has sparked widespread consumer dissatisfaction regarding high prices in the baking industry, highlighting underlying industry issues rather than just the product itself [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The corn tart has quickly become a trending product, replacing previous favorites like butter rice cakes, indicating a cyclical nature in the popularity of baked goods [3]. - Many dessert shops are rapidly introducing their own versions of the corn tart, with prices varying significantly, reflecting a trend of following popular items [4]. - The corn tart has gained immense popularity on social media platforms, with 700 million views on Douyin and 67.15 million on Xiaohongshu, showcasing its viral nature [5][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers exhibit a tendency to follow trends, often purchasing items without knowing the price beforehand, leading to feelings of regret when faced with high costs [6][9]. - The perception of high prices for corn tarts is contrasted by lower-priced alternatives available from chain bakeries, which can be as low as 6 yuan per tart [9]. - The cost of ingredients for a corn tart is relatively low, estimated at 5-6 yuan, raising questions about the pricing strategies of high-end bakeries [9]. Group 3: Product Origin and Popularity - There are two main theories regarding the origin of the corn tart: one suggests it originated in Korea, while the other attributes it to DIY home bakers who popularized it through social media [11][12]. - The corn tart's rise to fame is closely linked to its role as a marketing tool for bakeries, with tarts being a top search item in the baking category [13]. Group 4: Longevity of Trends - The baking industry frequently sees the rise of trendy products, but many do not last long in consumer preference, with price sensitivity being a key factor in purchasing decisions [15][16]. - Some previously popular items, like the "dirty" bread, have transitioned from trendy to staple products as their prices normalized [16][17]. - Successful long-term products in the baking sector often balance taste and affordability, moving away from the high prices associated with their initial popularity [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of the French Bread Festival in promoting French baking culture in China, particularly through the success of the bakery "Salé&Sucré" in Chengdu, which has gained recognition for its authentic French bread offerings [1][24][30]. Group 1: French Bread Festival - The French Bread Festival, also known as "La Fête du Pain," is celebrated annually in France to honor the patron saint of bakers, Saint Honoré, and has been introduced to China since 2010 [1]. - The festival serves as a cultural bridge between French and Chinese culinary traditions, showcasing popular brands and renowned bakers [1][32]. Group 2: Salé&Sucré Bakery - Salé&Sucré, founded by Wang Zhihao, has transformed from a small workshop in a residential building to a landmark for European bread in Chengdu, despite initial challenges in market acceptance [3][5]. - The bakery's unique offerings, such as the 200-year-old sourdough baguette and specialty ciabatta, have garnered attention from influential figures, leading to a surge in orders [3][7]. Group 3: Market Adaptation and Innovation - Wang Zhihao's experience in the baking industry, including training in France, has shaped his approach to creating authentic yet locally adapted European bread [5][11]. - The COVID-19 pandemic shifted consumer preferences towards healthier options, allowing low-oil, low-sugar European bread to gain popularity [8][9]. Group 4: Product Development - Salé&Sucré's product lineup includes a variety of European breads, with a focus on innovative flavors that incorporate local ingredients, such as matsutake and rose cloud ham [14][20]. - The bakery emphasizes the importance of using high-quality ingredients and unique processing techniques to enhance flavor and create memorable products [16][29]. Group 5: Recognition and Future Plans - The bakery has received accolades at the French Bread Festival, which serves as an official endorsement of its quality and authenticity [24][30]. - Wang Zhihao aims to continue participating in the festival and explore more possibilities for blending local ingredients with traditional French baking techniques [32][36].